Marvin Liao Marvin Liao

Back to the Future in Venture Capital: Small is Beautiful

The Macro is the cost of capital going up. Baby boomers are retiring and their capital will be going to more conservative asset classes instead of something risky like venture capital. No surprise either as LPs returns haven’t been destroyed because of markdowns in the recent year. A big come down from the insane exuberance of 2020-21. 


Instacart went public at $9.9B when their last private valuation was $39B. Or Stripe getting their valuation gutted by 50% from its peak of $94B. If this is happening to the best private tech company in the world, what do you think will happen to the almost 1400 so-called Unicorns in the last few years? 


There is another trend happening at the startup level. There is a new major Refactoring of startup costs. whereas you needed $5M USD in 1999 to build a product, due to new SaaS tools, cloud services like AWS and new distribution platforms like the Apple AppStore, new startup costs dropped to around $500k in 2008-2010.  Yes, the multitude shrinkage of startup costs led to an explosion of new and awesome startups over the last decade. 


I posit that we are entering a new inflection point now. There is a rise of even more cloud services, open source developer tools and plenty of low/no code tools as well as the plethora of amazing new AI-tools. Scenario or Midjourney are good examples on the Gen Ai side. Or think of what Bubble or Softr have done for prototyping products.  Startup costs will be a fraction of what it was before. 


 You probably only need $50-100k in 2023 to get an amazing product out the door. Tech is giving new founders even more leverage. 

This has huge ramifications on the VC industry. 

I could not articulate this at all until I heard an interview with Sam Lessin of Slow VC. The “Factory line” model of VC is over. Seed VCs packaging for Series A investors. Series A investors packaging startups for Series B. On and on goes the factory line until the company is packaged to go public. Works great during boom times but this factory model has broken down as the inventory has rotted and is being worked through. Ie. big valuation markdowns in the private market as the IPO market has shut down or set much lower clearing prices at exit. 

Which means that all the lessons that we learned of venture and startup land in the last 11 years are now obsolete. Worth watching the entire Turpentine VC interview here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=py7IPmDKjb4&t=64s

This discussion on the State of Seed Investing with investing legends Sam Lessin, Jason Lemkin and Frank Rotman is also very valuable too: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZUrKr8g8cqw

It has ramifications on the founder’s side. Terence Rohan, said it best in his masterpiece: “Raise less build More:” 

“Today, there is a growing common awareness amongst founders that a VC-only path can put them out of business, from either too little capital or pressure to take too much capital. If their company doesn’t exist, the chance of success is zero. 

On the other hand, if they are constrained by just profitability, they might not be able to build what they need to build, or others can outrun them. Bootstrapping alone can also impede. 

I’ve had similar conversations with dozens of founders on this topic, and I’m seeing them quietly start to pursue a new path – one that doesn’t perfectly fit within the lines prescribed by Sand Hill Road.

They are seeking to combine the growth of targeted venture funding with the durability found in bootstrapping (i.e. profitability).  

Their goal is to build a viable business first, while also harnessing the growth, network, and brand benefits of strategically raising capital from top investors. 

It’s a new hybrid path, and one that maximizes their odds of survival and breakout success.”

Source: https://trohan.com/2023/08/20/raise-less-build-more/

Notion, Calendly, Vanta, Zapier, Etc are good examples here. Rounds will be skipped or companies will go to profitability sooner. Bootstrapping will be en vogue and more popular, especially for 2nd time founders. 

The big implication for the venture capital industry overall is that it will become even more of a barbell structure. 


This has already started happening in Hollywood: Blumhouse which focuses on cheap but well crafted horror movies versus big studios like Warner, Sony, Disney et al. and their big expensive and well marketed blockbusters. 


In the Big VC world, we have A16Z, General Catalyst, Sequoia which will have the big massive funds, playing the AUM game side of the barbell. 

Then you will have the small funds on the other side of the barbell.  Specialists, niche and emerging funds practicing the artisanal model. The smartest funds are disciplined ones. Going back to basics. Bespoke.

Some that come to mind are: K9, Haystack, KP, Susa, Floodgate, Union Square Ventures. I’m also excited that Indie.vc is making a comeback. Indie.vc, if you don’t know, invests in software startups but allows the optionality for bootstrapping and getting fund ROI via revenue sharing or going down the VC “go big or go home” funding path as well. 

At the earlier stage of VC there will be a restructuring. Nicolas Colin wrote in September 2023, and worth reading the entire write up but here is sample:  

“Not only has the VC industry suffered significant setbacks in recent times, but the surviving VC firms are those that have adhered closely to the original VC playbook. To me, this implies that the trajectory of the VC landscape, rather than undergoing perpetual expansion and diversification (the “diffraction”), will consolidate into three distinct segments:

  • A limited portion of firms will either maintain or revert to the traditional artisanal approach, assembling a compact team, raising small funds, investing in a small pool of companies at reasonable valuations, and maintaining strict control over cap table and governance in an effort to achieve improbable, outsized returns. These firms will concentrate on enterprises engaged in pioneering technologies, essentially returning to the foundational roots of modern VC.

  • Another subset of VC firms will specialize in B2B SaaS startups—a domain where uncertainty remains high regarding the success of founding teams, thus making room for a VC-like approach. However, unlike the preceding group, this specialization won't revolve around technological breakthroughs. Instead, it will involve supporting top-tier teams from product and go-to-market perspectives, banking on their adeptness in executing a meticulously designed and well-documented approach. In this realm, innovation takes a backseat to execution.

  • Lastly, a considerable proportion of investors will need to acknowledge their inability to rightly claim the title of venture capitalists. They will forsake the excitement, no longer envision themselves as the next Don Valentine, and revert to the role of standard, boring private equity investors—allocating funds to companies that adopt comprehensible strategies across a wide array of industries, with the aim of achieving profitability through conventional avenues. While this isn't a bad thing by any means, it certainly deviates from the realm of true VC.” (Source:  https://www.europeanstraits.com/p/startups-the-door-is-closing)

I am also very excited by the new breed of new emerging fund managers. Especially as they have no legacy portfolio companies to take care of and have a blank slate and relatively small fund to invest. Much easier to deliver returns on a small fund as veteran VCs know. 

Everyone stuck in the middle of these two models are toast or walking dead at least in this new world. 

I fall on the side of small funds. I firmly believe in small VC funds, SPVs (Special Purpose Vehicles), investment syndicates and especially the rolling fund model like the one I run with my friend Carlos at Diaspora Ventures (diaspora.vc). In a nuclear apocalypse or nature’s equivalent, it’s the scrappy and small body mass that wins. It’s the big dinosaurs that die off. Small funds will be the cockroaches that thrive during times like this. 


I’m going to let the brilliant Sam Lessin have the second last word here: 

“Even in the scenarios where the companies that run the gauntlet ‘up and to the right’, the dilution is so intense along the way it kills seed investors' returns.

Which creates an ironic situation ideal for a tweet … which is the absolute best seed investments are the ones that never need to raise an A — especially with the scaling leverage of Cloud, and now AI — you can do mighty things with a few folks and a million dollars (and a focus on building a great business that is profitable all the way through) — and when you do that, all capital after the seed becomes an ‘option’ rather than a requirement.

In those scenarios? well that is the best for your seed investors — because there is no dilution… they own what they own… they provided the high risk capital when it was needed, and that capital was maximally leveraged.

Multi-stage funds can’t do this model, because they are forced / their job is to deploy capital at scale as ‘asset managers’ rather than investors— they want founders to need lots of money (which they can then supply at scale) — but real investors / seed funds CAN and SHOULD BE VERY EXCITED to execute this plan.”


What an exciting time to be in Silicon Valley as we see a new Renaissance of startups and venture capital.

Read More
Marvin Liao Marvin Liao

Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads October 8th, 2023

"Courage is being scared to death, but saddling up anyway." ― John Wayne.

  1. "If you are a business that yields customer advantages because of localized economies of scale, make sure you dominate every market you are in, don’t dilute yourself across too many. Getting density is ALL THAT MATTERS.

If you are a business that yields resource advantages because of platform dynamics, make sure you make your platform the most accommodating to 3rd party developers. Being the “go to” platform is ALL THAT MATTERS

If you are a business that yields customer advantages because you are the system of record, make sure you lock customer data in wherever possible. Owning as much customer data as possible is ALL THAT MATTERS"

https://medium.com/@EqualVentures/companies-build-capabilities-before-they-build-moats-d331bb167a2b

2. Love this.

"By adamantly (if politely) rejecting the advances of venture capitalists, Holz has bucked the tide among artificial intelligence startups, the top tier of which has raised more than $17 billion in fresh capital in recent years, according to The Information’s Generative AI database. Holz has also succeeded in making Midjourney a source of intense intrigue in VC land, where the company’s profitability and astronomical growth have enticed investors.

The company, which charges users between $10 and $120 for a monthly subscription to its image generator, is on pace to surpass $200 million in revenue this year, according to people close to the company. Details about Midjourney’s financials have not been previously reported.

Although a large chunk of the revenue goes right back into purchasing the pricey AI chips required to train and run Midjourney’s machine-learning models, the company has been profitable since early on, according to several people close to the company. Holz’s ability to rake in hundreds of millions in revenue in under two years and with only about 40 employees puts him in a rare class of entrepreneur. “To put it charitably, he doesn’t need VC in his life,” said Michael Stewart, a partner at Microsoft’s venture fund, M12.

In weekly office hours with customers, Holz, known for his distinctive curly red hair and philosophical manner, has admitted to feeling “bitter” about the VC-backed path he took with Leap Motion and to finding the current cash-hungry batch of AI founders uninspiring. 

His goal is to remain a bootstrapped company that stands the test of time—“kind of like Craigslist,” Holz told The Information in a rare interview. He wants Midjourney to be "this weird thing that no one knows how to compete with that just sort of stands alone.”

https://www.theinformation.com/articles/he-doesnt-need-vc-in-his-life-how-midjourneys-founder-built-an-ai-winner-while-rejecting-venture-capital

3. This is a masterclass in Venture capital from 3 masters. Worth watching.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j9xouls5eX0&t=3049s

4. "Only $1 in every $5 spent shopping lives online. And from customer acquisition through to fulfillment, the commerce landscape remains full of friction and in need of digitization. It’s still the Wild West in commerce. In the long run, this week’s blockbuster IPOs in Klaviyo and Instacart will still look like early winners; there’s still massive value up for the taking."

https://digitalnative.substack.com/p/the-wild-west-of-e-commerce

5. "President Powell is confused by the strong consumer and isn’t looking at how the purchase is made. With debt. Humans are not rationale they are emotional. 

Steve from accounting who make $100,000 a year can’t go to his wife and cut spending. He is more likely to keep borrowing. The human ego is far too strong.

“They will bail me out like the pandemic” -unfortunately, they will be wrong. 

As they default, unemployment rates go higher than they should have. Banks are forced to freeze lending. (unless you’re a reader of this website and are planning for 25% down when the music stops!)

Investing Conclusion: The rule of thumb is to sell all equities on the “last raise”. This is complicated since the Fed might hold flat for a couple of meetings in a row so the last stable reading is “the last raise”. As usual, the goal isn’t to try and hit grand slams or home runs all you have to do it watch the inversions and have your finger on the de-risk/sell button if it gets close to parity (say the inversion gets to -0.5%). Alternatively, you can hit a single (what we’re doing) and effectively exit the stock market with a minimal amount invested. 

The second and most important part? The bond market is saying money printer go on (with a catch).

The only way you would get 4.5% on the 10-year bond is if inflation remains relatively high. Since we know the unemployment rate can’t drop to 2% (it’s already in the 3% range), the market is saying the Fed will print money. 

They will keep rates high and print money for the unemployed via: 1) helicopter money, 2) UBI, 3) higher benefits or 4) some other direct cash/food payments."

https://bowtiedbull.io/p/president-powell-oil-impact-to-cpi

6. "After reading endless articles about Germany’s malaise, my considered opinion is that it boils down to three big mistakes: trusting its economic health to Russia and China, a naive degrowth-focused environmentalism, and a reluctance to embrace change and progress. On all three counts, the country seems not to recognize the magnitude of the challenge. Instead they seem to be just muddling along, dreamily expecting the economy of the mid-2010s to somehow magically return. 

Germany needs to stop messing around and get serious about fixing its economic model. The fate of Europe rests on its shoulders.

What Germany needs now is to become a serious country again. It needs to restart every nuclear plant that can still be restarted, even as it accelerates the building of renewables. It needs to cut off any remaining tech transfers to China.

It needs to increase spending on the military and rebuild its defense-industrial base. It needs to focus on giving software companies a safe and profitable haven to grow and develop, and encourage more rapid digitization. It needs to quash NIMBYism and allow more building."

https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/germany-needs-to-stop-messing-around

7. "Dalio highlights five major forces that will shape our future. “They are 1) the unsustainable level of government debt growth, 2) the great internal conflicts over wealth and values differences that are causing high levels of populism of the right and the left that threatens to cause bad international conflict that will be a type of civil war, 3) the international great power conflicts most importantly between the United States and China that is in the brink of some type of international war, 4) disruptive acts of nature in the form of droughts, floods and/or pandemics, and 5) technology changes, most importantly AI related and its consequences.”

To me, one of the macro trends that powers resiliency, local wealth creation and counters populism is the rise in entrepreneurship. This manifests itself in various forms, be it the creator economy, the gig economy or the general aspiration to become entrepreneurs present in younger generations. As another Forbes article wrote, 48% of Gen-Zers have numerous side hustles and 62% indicate they have started, or intend to start, their own business.

This is also an opportunity for fintechs in powering small businesses and new business creation. For example, my former portfolio company ZenBusiness serves as a single pane of glass for services businesses, in the same way Shopify has powered ecommerce. A range of horizontal platforms are emerging to power this shift."

https://99tech.alexlazarow.com/p/3-lessons-ray-dalio-founder-of-the

8. "AI vastly empowers a regular person because we can all now create businesses, websites, content, characters, apps, art, storylines, research and more without needing to pay a Silicon Valley coder hundreds of thousands of dollars anymore. Yes, some people will lose their jobs to AI, but AI also empowers them to create and pursue new forms of work.

But, even as AI enriches new forms of income for many, AI is also profoundly reorganizing the way we interface with reality itself. It may be causing crashes - plane crashes, train crashes, perceptual crashes, and, eventually, market crashes. 

Extending our cognition and offloading the cognitive load of decision-making thanks to AI expands our capacity to get things done. But it is also distancing us from reality and the skill of wrangling with reality. I’d rather wrangle with a real horse than with the sensuous skin of a digital horse.

But now I see that I’ll need to do both simultaneously. If a digital building is a nervous being, so are all digital creatures. It’s the gap between the real and the unreal that intrigues me. It’s the spaces between the zeros and the ones that the future now resides in." 

https://drpippa.substack.com/p/ai-what-has-not-been-said

9. Lots of good ideas from Codie Sanchez. Micro PE + Personal Media Company is the way.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lGdgKDdJ3MI&t=920s

10. "It is impossible to responsibly, or even imaginatively, report that dollarization would save Argentina. First of all, there is an unimaginably-large backstop of dollars the country would need to hold and resist spending, which feels like a country-level Stanford marshmallow experiment any administration in recent memory would have failed.

Second, the unit of account is not the problem, as no matter how the spending is tallied, it outruns and dwarfs the fundamentals of the Argentine economy. Third, the loss of control over core central bank functions may seem like a needed straitjacket for policymakers, but long-term it means domestic monetary policymaking capacity may erode even further.

The lack of clarity about government monetary policy moving forward, the lack of constraints imposed by the IMF, the temptation of taking recourse loans from the Chinese, and the institutional inability to implement binding capital controls combine in Argentina for an exciting election cycle, a strange on-the-ground experience, and an uncertain future."

https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/argentinas-macroeconomic-situation

11. "Over and over again, Musk defies the odds and builds something incredible. It is not hyperbole to say that he single-handedly ignited a second space age and accelerated the electric car revolution by at least a decade. This history of success means there is at least a chance he can do the same with brain implants, social media, tunneling, and AI. The guy is relentless—sleeping on factory floors, working 100-hour weeks. He simply doesn’t quit. 

If he succeeds in just 75% of his ambition, he could be one of the most important people in human history. However, that success results in huge costs to him personally, to his employees, and to society at large. 

He compels us to dream big yet retain moral autonomy. We need not fully embrace or reject him. Perhaps the best takeaway from studying his life isn’t in the acceptance or condemnation of it. Maybe it should be an inspiration to be better and build something better."

https://every.to/napkin-math/oh-no-i-kinda-want-to-work-for-elon

12. "Now that rates are higher, and the Fed is signaling a commitment to long-term higher rates, this generation of consumers and investors will have to recalibrate. The irony of the situation is that boomers were slow to acclimate to low interest rates because it was foreign to their lived experience, but now millennials are likely going to be the ones who are slow to acclimate to high interest rates. 

There is no specific cure to the problem. The pain will continue until young people realize the world has changed and they now live in a new regime. Their investment decisions now have to account for 5% interest rates. Their car and mortgage payments are going to be higher than they anticipated.

But that is the price for living today. It may not seem fair, but the worst mistake would be sitting around complaining rather than living life. Time is the most finite resource we get. Letting the central bank steal it from you because they made capital expensive sounds like a bad plan."

https://pomp.substack.com/p/high-interest-rates-usher-in-new

13. "Inside the abandoned building in central Taiwan, there are are only paper targets, and the weapons used are low-powered airguns that fire small pellets. 

This is the resistance, the civil defenders should Taiwan's army be overwhelmed in the face of attack by China, which wants to reunite the mainland with the self-governing island.

"We won't surrender," says one of the masked men. "Anyone who invades will face us, and we'll use whatever we can to resist."

https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/taiwan-china-civil-defenders-1.6971920

14. I like eating alone. I travel a lot by myself for business and used to it now. Actually can be enjoyable.

https://www.bosshunting.com.au/lifestyle/eat/dining-alone/

15. This is a quick explainer on what is happening with Armenia and Azerbaijan.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aPx9kdanWNk

16. "Gatorade, BodyArmor, and Powerade dominate the market, and the only real challenger has been Prime, which owns about 6% of the market and was built on the back of two of the world’s largest YouTube personalities (Logan Paul and KSI).

So, if you are going to challenge those brands, you need some advantage. BodyArmor had it with Kobe Bryant and Mike Repole, and Prime has it with Logan Paul and KSI. But simply paying athletes cash to promote your brand on social media isn’t enough.

You need a good-tasting product. It has to be healthy. And most importantly, you need an unfair advantage — celebrity ownership, distribution, connections, secret formula, etc. — that competitors can’t match.

BioSteel didn’t have any of that, and that’s ultimately why the company failed."

https://huddleup.substack.com/p/patrick-mahomes-backed-sports-drink

17. "Now, with our goals a bit more clearly stated, it’s time to address, with coherence and persistence, our leaders. This includes both our politicians, and our virtue-signaling CCP puppets (mere speculation, of course). Our line of questioning for both should look something like this: do you believe this planet belongs to human beings? Do you believe your purpose, in addressing the issue of climate, is to produce the best possible climate for the greatest number of Americans?

And, finally, how do you plan on decreasing the amount of carbon in the atmosphere, increasing our arable land, and “changing the world”? Actually, I mean. As in, please pull out some diagrams and charts and a little laser pointer or whatever and physically show me the path to your intended impact.

Because here’s an inconvenient truth: if the fate of humanity hinges on a carbon neutral watch we are absolutely, totally, irredeemably screwed."

https://www.piratewires.com/p/an-inconvenient-truth

18. This is long overdue.

"That’s the phrase that an executive at private equity-owned financial firm U.S. Anesthesia Partners (USAP) used after acquiring yet another Texas anesthesiology practice, with the intent of hiking prices on Texas patients. And “Cha-ching!” was the right way to put it, since the excess profits amounted to tens, or even hundreds of millions of dollars, in just one medical specialty, in just one state.

But the new quote should be ‘uh oh.’ Because today, the Federal Trade Commission, led by Chair Lina Khan, filed suit against USAP for monopolization, as well as its owner, New York City-based private equity firm Welsh Carson, which from its offices on Park Avenue engineered the entire strategy of gouging patients in Texas.

It’s an important suit, for reasons I’ll go into, and it also reflects a more aggressive antitrust enforcement regime, and skepticism of private equity in health care.

 In every area of health care - hospitals, pharmaceutical distribution, ambulances, emergency physician services, insurance - there has been massive consolidation, which increases prices and lowers the amount of care delivered.

Private equity, a financial model focused on ruthless extraction, came into health care in a big way after the financial crisis of 2008, and it super-sized this trend. PE funds look specifically for areas where they can acquire pricing power, and then they squeeze."

https://www.thebignewsletter.com/p/cha-ching-lina-khan-attacks-private

19. Lots of great thoughts and wisdom. How to both be happy and operate with excellence in your life.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3d4AkAaF_Mw&t=2042s

20. "So what could a venture firm focused on frontier technologies possibly see in Angel Studios, a media company whose productions include a TV series about the life of Jesus Christ and a libertarian-themed children’s cartoonwith episodes like “The Itsy Bitsy Victim Mentality”?

While a Gigafund spokesperson said Oskoui and Nosek were impressed by the Harmons’ “highly disruptive vision of a uniquely democratic media publishing house,” another answer can be found in their political and social interests over the past decade. These ties shed light on the unlikely connections between the present-day culture wars stoked by Musk and others in Silicon Valley, and the race to unleash technologies that they believe will ultimately benefit humankind."

https://www.theinformation.com/articles/the-elon-musk-investors-with-dreams-of-a-new-social-order

21. "For the majority of companies that limped across the finish line of 2023, the 2024 fundraising climate may not be forgiving if burn rates remain too high or revenue growth too sluggish. But for many, strong execution under adversity in 2023, reduced burn rates, and overall better execution learned through bitter experience will combine to create the conditions that will enable fundraising and sales.

This is the darkest of nights, but next year may see the dawn break. It will not be roses and unicorns, but we are likely to return to a much more functional market in which customers are willing to buy and investors are willing to price risk."

https://medium.com/@gdibner/2023-the-crucible-year-a24e6d7acc7c

22. "I think solopreneurship is incredible way to find a niche and build something that people love. But I fundamentally believe for the majority of solopreneurs, they should hire themselves out of their roles or build teams. 

Yes, less profit but more scalable business and better for your mental health."

https://latecheckout.substack.com/p/im-feeling-spicy-today

23. "Worryingly though if Russia has captured key Western interests, they likely remain captive, and active. Are we doing anything to expose and root these out to stop their continuing influence on at least the public narrative? Not really.

And are the same mistakes possible when it comes to China - absolutely.

Western business interests are similarly invested up to the hilt, and appear active in lobbying to remain engaged and invested. Are they asking the right questions, are they able to table the right questions to the right people? Unlikely. Can they “be in the know”? Also unlikely. I hope for their own sakes that they have set stop losses and could still exit if need be.

Interestingly, I now see those very same “Fortress China” economic policy settings as we saw in Russia from 2015 onwards - deleveraging, building FX buffers, running much tighter fiscal and monetary policies, sacrificing growth for a stronger balance sheet to defend against future tensions with the West. The warning signs are there."

https://timothyash.substack.com/p/why-did-the-west-get-russia-so-wrong

24. "That’s the danger of the mediocre success. The point of startup experimentation isn't the success itself; it’s the learning that comes with clear-cut success or failure. You don't really care about the sales revenue generated by your first two reps; you care about whether this is a strategy you can scale to dozens and then hundreds of reps, or whether you need to use a completely different strategy. It’s all about the learning. And mediocre successes don’t give you any learning.

Making it worse is that we’re all heavily socialized to aim for mediocre success. Schools, universities, large organizations — they don’t want big swings and big misses; they want safety and consistency. A steady 7 is better than 10s interspersed with 0s. This might work well in structured, predictable environments, but in startup-land it’s anathema."

https://pivotal.substack.com/p/the-worst-outcome-is-a-mediocre-success

25. "It’s clear to me that every being will register joy and tragedy, and the ratio is 90% a function of when and where you’re born and the chemistry you inherit. Seneca believed religion was regarded by the poor as true, the wise as false, and the powerful as useful. 

As someone who has been all of those things, however, I find the absence of religion and opportunities to congregate with strangers leaves a void. I’m getting older, wanting to serve in the agency of others, to be part of something bigger, and register comfort. I’m left wanting."

https://www.profgalloway.com/losing-my-religion/

26. "So yes, it’s not just that the Fed came out this week to intimate that they’ll keep rates higher for longer that’s prompting the reevaluation by debt investors. It’s something else. Investors are realizing that this isn’t quite the world we’ve been used to all along. Some things may have actually changed, so much debt has been issued that now needs to be refinanced, and so many things cost so much more. All of these things need to be priced in now. 

It all starts with interest rates, and if rates are going higher and gravity is getting stronger. . . well asset prices may just need to come down to match. 

Nothing is given and everything is earned . . . even for our government."

https://openinsights.substack.com/p/a-whole-generation-of-investors-have

27. "People tell founders not to take the “no” personally, but that’s hard, especially considering how much founders pour themselves into their companies. You can both feel the pain of the “no” and still move past it. Sometimes, a “no” is the end, and sometimes, it’s the start of something more interesting."

https://chudson.substack.com/p/sometimes-no-is-the-beginning-not

28. "Contribution margin tells you how much you can spend on acquiring a customer while still growing profitably. From a DTC perspective, you can also do this exercise using lifetime value if you want to push the envelope of growth if you have plenty of runway with cash to wait 3-12 months to be profitable."

https://bowtiedbull.io/p/contribution-margins-with-bowtiedopossum


29. Nick Huber is a wise man. Worth a listen here.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xvmDjOradP4&t=296s

30. Jason has one of the most unique perspectives on SaaS. Anyone involved in the business should listen to this.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9NqB19-5sog

31. This is very good. VC is hard. Your best investments almost always look weird or were written off at some point in time.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bPiumq0Vmso

32. Learning from the best in Micro-Private equity

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OkwHwl5mDVA

33. This man is a hypocrite and a cancer on San Francisco. He is emblematic of the disastrous progressives wreaking havoc in the city.

"Above all, though, Dean Preston is a man of profound, puzzling contradictions. He’s a democratic socialist who believes “the solution to the failures of capitalism is not more capitalism,” but he is also a multimillionaire who, according to public disclosure forms, owns between $100,000 and $1 million of stock in each of Apple, Cisco, IBM, and Microsoft, and owns at least three homes worth over $1 million. He has repeatedly insisted that he “[doesn’t] own rental property,” and is “not a landlord and [has] never been one,” but his wife is part of a family LLC that owns and operates several luxury apartment buildings from which Preston presumably benefits financially.

He brands himself “one of California’s leading affordable housing advocates,” but his voting record shows he has opposed tens of thousands of units of affordable housing (many more than he’s supported), often at the behest of local landlords. In many ways, he is a typical “champagne socialist” — a wealthy individual who supports policies at odds with his luxury lifestyle. Politicians and activists like Preston often prompt head-scratching. Why would someone vocally support political positions in clear tension with their personal lifestyle?"

https://www.piratewires.com/p/dean-preston-san-franciscos-millionnaire

34. "Dual threat CEOs aren’t going to be commonplace, but I do think they’re needed in the startup community. Entrepreneurs that are building businesses are going to find great investment opportunities in the normal course of action, and by being a dual threat CEO, they’re able to deploy capital in a way that is a win-win for both them, the startup community, and the funding providers."

https://davidcummings.org/2023/09/23/dual-threat-ceos-that-build-and-invest/

35. Live it up. Such great stuff here with the guys and Andrew Wilkinson of Tiny.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HChb0C5pQDs&t=1s

36. I always learn from Mike Maples Jr. on the art of VC investing.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V1lr3T4li3E

Read More
Marvin Liao Marvin Liao

The Present & Near Future Alpha in Tech: Rise of Private Equity & Micro Private Equity

I met a founder friend back in 2023 in Montreal after a 5 year hiatus. He had sold his last few companies so he had done well. I asked him what he was up to. 

He told me he had just put in an offer to take over a well funded VC backed startup. The issue is growth had stalled out, the VCs had written it off, and founders were tired after grinding it out for 8 years and unwilling to recap it. 

The idea is to buy it out for a good price at a massive discount to the last valuation. Put in new management, fix the cost structure and find new distribution channels. Grow the equity value or just take out dividends from the profits. 

This is going to be more common and many PE funds will feast well in the next few years. 

Too many of the 1400 Unicorns raised at crazy multiples of revenue, at valuations that are too high whose growth expectations can never be reached. Or at least not reach for many years. 

Like the previous story mentioned and worth repeating: VCs have pretty much written these growth stage companies off. Or worse if it’s an east coast hedge fund, trying to squeeze nickels out or selling secondaries for pennies on the dollar to get some cash out. The founders are diluted and or/ just damn tired to continue.

VERY Big opportunity for PE. Come in: replace the leadership team and gut the cost structure. It works extra well when it’s enterprise software or SaaS business. It works for big public cos and for the first time in a while, for growth stage private co. 

Constellation Software is an excellent model which acquires software companies and holds them for a long time. They have bought over 500 acquisitions since 1995 and deals range from $5M to $250M usd.

We’re even seeing PE funds buy out publicly traded software companies. Thoma Bravo took private enterprise software company Coupa after beating Vista Equity Partners in a $6.2B deal. There will definitely be more of these. And they bring a new skill set of financing and operating with a clear eye and operational expertise on margins and profitability. 

Add on top of the example that Elon did at Twitter by cutting 70+ percent of an over bloated staff.  This will become standard practice at many of these newly privatized tech cos. Which results in massive margin and profit expansion as a consequence. 

I’ve always said PE firms are the vultures, jackals and sharks of the financial world as they do the dirty but valuable clean up after a massive bubble of excess. The tech industry is at this point now. It will be painful and bloody but necessary as private equity feasts on the carcasses of these zombicorns, right sizing and turning them around. Or going further and rolling up several competitors in a category, ending ruinous competition and building out a dominant player in the space. 

Once this is done, it clears up the field for future growth in our ecosystem and for a new generation of awesome startups to rise.

Read More
Marvin Liao Marvin Liao

Ignorance is Costly: Be Curious

I was wandering around the famous Mitsukoshi department store in Ginza district in Tokyo in April. Engaged in one of my eating and cookie/pastry buying sprees. At every stand & place I went to, they asked me whether I had a card or even wanted one. I was like whatever. 

But as I was walking out I saw a sign that said as a foreigner I could get a special card for a pretty good discount on everything there. Duh? Double duh as I am a cheap deal hunter. So it bugged me. I like a deal as much as the next guy, even more so considering how much I spent there. (It was A LOT btw). 

But the quick lesson is ignorance is costly. This is not just about shopping or deal hunting. 

Thinking you know it all is damn expensive. This is about life in general. Ignorance of a language, a country's customs, about how a company or even an industry works, will eventually hurt you. Not understanding human behavior is even more dangerous. This leads to fights both physical and emotional. 

We all have gaps in our knowledge and experience, we start off as blank slates. It’s a good thing so it means we can shape where our lives go. It’s impossible to know everything in such a wide world that is changing all the time. 


How do you fight this and get better? Have some humility and acknowledge you are ignorant. And work your ass off trying to learn as much as you can from books, other people and your own experiences. Even better, be genuinely curious about the world around you. That’s been the most universal trait that I see in those most successful.

Read More
Marvin Liao Marvin Liao

Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads October 1st, 2023

“It’s not that I’m so smart, it’s just that I stay with problems longer.” – Albert Einstein

  1. "In an era where luxury cars and extravagant timepieces once symbolized success and prestige, a profound but quiet transformation in our values has taken place. No one talks about it much, our modern cinema and music ignore it because they’re incentivized to, but the internet forced a change here — you see it on display constantly.

I believe strongly in the thesis material possessions have ceded dominance to the virtues of mentorship, the free/open exchange of ideas, the art of creative expression and other intangibles. In essence: we’ve moved past status being biased to financial achievements and once again care more about intangibles (the transcendental).

Related, the notion of ‘getting rich, then getting off the grid’ as some on fintwit love to say is deeply nihilistic. These are lost individuals. Affix your oxygen mask, then lift others up. Stay on the grid and help shore up our shared infrastructure, take off the VR and join the rest of us in base reality."

https://www.hottakes.space/p/on-status-in-modernity

2. Always learn stuff by listening to Sam Lessin of Slow Ventures.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s4MQldIKMg8

3. "He will keep coming back to that darkness, and is likely to submerge himself into it all the more as the realities of mortality enfold him. When you are as messed up as our hero, there is a lot of psychological work to be done to stop the downward spiral, work more boring than building a rocket. Work even more boring than this book.

It is no wonder that Musk has renamed Twitter “X” after his favourite letter. X is also a crossing out, the opposite of a tick, and that is what Musk has been steadily doing to his legacy. Isaacson’s book constantly tries to build dramatic tension between the species-saving visionary and the beaten bullied boy. But we know the ending to Musk’s story before we even open it. In the end, the bullies win."

https://www.theguardian.com/books/2023/sep/13/elon-musk-by-walter-isaacson-review-arrested-development

4. "In other words, expensive-to-make chips with slightly trailing performance will slowly deprive Chinese companies of market share, and thus of the market feedback necessary to help push Chinese chip innovation in the right direction. The Chinese state can lob effectively infinite amounts of money at Huawei and SMIC and other national champions, but its track record is very poor in terms of getting bang for its buck — or even any bang at all — from semiconductor subsidies. 

And the greatest irony is that China’s government itself may help speed along this process. Confident of its ability to produce high-quality indigenous phones, China is starting to ban iPhones in some of its government agencies. Those hard bans will likely be accompanied by softer encouragement throughout Chinese companies and society to switch from Apple to domestic brands.

That will give a sales boost to companies like Huawei, but it will slowly silence the feedback that Chinese companies receive from competing in cutthroat global markets. Voluntary Chinese isolation from the global advanced tech ecosystem will encourage sluggish innovation and more wasteful use of resources — a problem sometimes called “Galapagos syndrome”. 

What effect all this will have on China’s military capabilities isn’t clear, because that depends a lot on the pace of military innovation. It might be that old chips are fine, and China can just overwhelm the forces of developed democracies with sheer mass of missiles and drones. Or it might be that new AI algorithms that allow the creation of highly effective drone swarms might need to run on bleeding-edge chips, in which case China could be at a qualitative disadvantage in a fight.

We just don’t know for sure; the argument that China’s military will be hampered by a weaker chipmaking industry is probabilistic, not a law of the Universe. But it’s still one thing that might help put a check on Chinese expansionism in the 2020s and even the 2030s, and every little thing counts."

https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/whos-afraid-of-the-huawei-mate-60

5. "TL;DR: Vast majority will not get raises that keep up with inflation and will likely lose 4% of their purchasing power again. Unemployment goes up as we’ve been expecting. This implies a period of some stagflation. Don’t expect rates to come down any time soon so please don’t lever up praying for a sudden pivot that is unlikely to come. If the math works (of course take it) just don’t leverage on a “prayer”

 It should be relatively obvious but if it isn’t we might go into it deeper. 

-It’s logical to assume that a CEO selling shares is horrible. 

-It’s logical to assume an attractive management team is a horrible red flag. 

-It’s logical to assume that Sales people are not good long-term thinkers due to years of quarterly payouts. 

-It’s logical to assume that there is a “halo effect” on management teams that were in the right place at the right time due to pure luck (no way anyone would predict COVID). If you can’t control your weight you probably can’t control your spending. And. The last one. 

-It’s logical to assume that a company shouldn’t be spending time impressing retail and investors with fancy events, your company is likely in the dumpster."

https://bowtiedbull.io/p/declining-real-wages-evaluation-of

6. Hard not to agree with this. Still think there are some use cases for Crypto but I guess we will see.

"Crypto seemed like a giant slot machine that had been rigged to pay out almost every time. Hundreds of millions of people around the world gave in to the temptation to pull the lever. Everybody knew somebody who’d hit it big. And the more people who bought in, the higher prices rose. By the time of the conference in the Bahamas, the total market value of all of crypto was $2 trillion.

From the beginning, I had thought that crypto was pretty dumb. And it turned out to be even dumber than I imagined. There was no mass movement to actually use crypto in the real world. The crypto apps hyped as the future of finance and art barely worked. As I crisscrossed the globe, from El Salvador to Switzerland to the Philippines, all I saw were scams, fraud, and half-baked schemes. By the end, I’d find myself in Cambodia, investigating how crypto fueled a vast human-trafficking scheme run by Chinese gangsters."

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/zeke-faux-number-go-up-book-excerpt.html

7. "Critics can quibble, of course, with Ukrainian commanders’ decisions about when and how to go about recovering territory occupied by Russian invaders. But for all the anonymous sniping about how Ukraine should fight like NATO, the reality is that other countries, including the superpower United States, have a great deal to learn about war from Ukraine."

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/09/ukraine-war-nato-kathleen-hicks/675310/

8. This is sadly depressing. Regulatory capture in America. Telco, Healthcare, Education, Pharma, Defense industry. Proof is these are awfully terrible for customers and capitalism.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F9cO3-MLHOM&t=138s

9. "If interest rates stay well above zero and productivity fails to experience a late-90s-like boom, expect more articles like this. As interest costs rise and start squeezing the rest of the budget, expect Democrats to call for higher taxes and Republicans to call for cuts to Medicaid and other social programs. Expect to see analyses from think tanks detailing all the wonky little ways we could restrain federal spending. In other words, expect somewhat of a return to the intellectual and political climate of 1992.

In other words, an age of austerity will force everyone in the country to tighten their belts and lower their expectations. The last 15 years pushed us to imagine what more the U.S. government could do if only it had the political will to open its purse-strings. Unless a productivity boom and/or a return to near-zero interest rates with low inflation saves us from having to make hard choices, the next 15 years will force us to curb our imaginations and put a damper on our fiscal dreams."

https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/an-age-of-austerity-is-probably-on

10. "The good news for us—at least for now—is that it was much easier to wipe the Templar Order from the face of the Earth than it will be for our overlords to take away the entirety of our crypto, gold, cash, and other items of value we can use for trade. But they’re not lacking in effort to do so.

However, they’ll never be able to control a silver coin in your hand, and who you choose to give that coin in exchange for goods and services. That’s why I believe the time is now to prepare for a future when that may be one of your only options to trade with some semblance of privacy.

For me, the important thing is to not wait until it’s too late to stock up on items that you can use to trade with in an untraceable manner. Holding even small amounts of gold and silver isn’t about taking part in illegal trade, it’s about owning something that all cultures and people agree has an equal value, that can be used to buy things on your own terms. Terms that are very difficult for your government to force you into; terms that are between two consenting human beings.

So, a few silver coins, or an ounce of gold per month? It doesn’t matter how much. Something is better than nothing. And now is better than never."

https://abundantia.substack.com/p/the-holy-war-over-your-money

11. "At this point the writing is on the wall. Heavily levered businesses and individuals will be sent into bankruptcy. People hoping for the Fed to bail them out won’t get it. 

The best solution is to position yourself for the tail end of both risk and no risk assets. The middle has absolutely no value in times of volatility. If you want to own stocks it makes little sense to own anything but the tails (ultra safe or ultra risky). 

People will choose to flee to 1) safe assets - mature companies/utilities or T-bills - we’re in short term t-bills or 2) hyper growth/near gambling stocks like the “magnificent 7” or crypto (you can see the second one playing out in part 2 of this post) - we’d suggest adding in the rough $25K/$1600 ranges for BTC/ETH."

https://bowtiedbull.io/p/bond-market-crypto-alts-in-tax-havens

12. Somewhat negative view of Biohacking. My view is why not? 

Health is wealth and you have nothing to lose except for a little bit of money and time for plenty of upside. Why not try to optimize your longevity if your life is good & you have the resources.

This is why the reporters and academics who are closed minded on this lose in life all the time. Haters=losers.

https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2023/sep/17/tim-gurner-biohacking-and-the-growing-list-of-super-rich-grinders-who-spend-a-fortune-to-stave-off-ageing

13. "Members of the Creative Class gravitate towards a cluster of creative expressions, ideas, experiences, places and things that both unite them and differentiate them from each other and everyone else. The politics of the creative money aesthetics is that never stand out in an obvious way, but to be immediately noticed and envied.

It has to be aspirational: others need to wonder where a member of Creative Class acquired this particular piece of clothing (Osaka? Shoreditch? Milan?), or heard about a particular book or a movie. Differentiation is in the details visible to the insiders, never in-your-face."

 https://andjelicaaa.substack.com/p/the-creative-class-starter-kit

14. "Looking at the examples set by India, LATAM and SEA, we can see that, once the foundational layers of digital payments has been established, the speed and scale of FinTech startups accelerates rapidly. 

While there remains work to be done, Central & South Asia are reaching that inflection point as government and private sector backed payment solutions approach a critical mass. One variable to monitor will be whether the traditional financial institutions are able to adapt and evolve their technology stacks to compete with FinTech startups, as they have in India.

Collaborative efforts involving technology, innovative business models, and strategic embedding of financial services within ecosystems are likely to drive further growth and financial inclusion in these regions."

https://sturgeoncapital.substack.com/p/the-100m-arr-club-part-ii

15. I think many men do think about the Roman Empire. I do it all the time. Fascinating time as a history major.

https://time.com/6314544/tiktok-roman-empire-trend/

16. Awesome NIA episode with guest George Mack. Excellent discussion on creativity.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lP9-qbFXBWE&t=3390s

17. Hilarious.

https://www.theonion.com/ivy-league-graduate-risks-it-all-for-love-of-consulting-1850840626

18. "We assume that because Russians generally are so good at chess that it influences all their strategy. This is not the case with Putin. The exiled Russian Grandmaster Gary Kasparov notes ‘Putin, as with every dictator, hates chess because chess is a strategic game which is 100 percent transparent.’ He sees the Russian leader as more of a poker player, in which you can play a very weak hand, ‘provided you have enough cash to raise the stakes—and also, if you have a strong nerve, to bluff.’

In fact we know that Putin’s favoured game , to the point of obsession, is judo which is intensely tactical. In 2015 Kimberley Marten observed that for Putin the judoka to win it is not necessary to be ‘bigger or stronger than the opponent, just quicker and shrewder.’ The goal is to survive, to be sure ‘to be the last one standing at the end of the tournament, come what may’. Judo also does not allow for a draw. There must be a winner.

Hence, having started a war, that he intended to win rapidly through exploiting his opponent’s weakness, now Putin fears a conclusion that exposes his own. He is determined to hang on, absorbing losses and playing down difficulties in the hope that something may turn up to save the day."

https://samf.substack.com/p/stalemate-zugzwang-and-a-long-middle

19. Zeihan has been a China bear for a long time. But there is not a lot of good news coming out of the place recently.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mqA5NODRnQI

20. Interesting opportunity for real estate investing & living in Rural Spain. I'm a fan of Calvin Froedge, who is one of the sharpest thinkers in alternative & contrarian investing.

https://twitter.com/calvinfroedge/status/1703344635806900649

21. More people should study the Hanseatic League: Baltic ocean merchant city states that challenged kingdoms. 

https://twitter.com/germanshistory/status/1703676753514791239

22. "Since 2020, Sand Hill Road's most successful individuals have broken away on their own to raise capital for their micro-funds. Europe, often a few years behind when it comes to startup trends, is also starting to produce its own solo GPs."

https://www.businessinsider.com/solo-gps-lone-wolf-vc-investors-competing-despite-funding-slump-2023-8

23. "Grosberg estimates that Putin has enough resources to continue waging the war against Ukraine “at least as long as it has already been ongoing.” But this depends on several factors outside of Moscow’s and Kyiv’s control.

“It depends on if the sanctions hold and how well we can implement them. It largely depends on how well we as the West can endure and how well we recognize that it is not just a piece of land. Ukraine is fighting over the same values that we respect and protect. As long as we understand this, the situation is satisfactory – far from good, but satisfactory.”

Another factor explaining why Russia hasn't been strategically defeated yet is the West’s initial reluctance to arm Ukraine before that abortive airbridge to Hostomel was even attempted. “Now, 550-plus days into the war, we have agreed to supply Ukraine with weapons and equipment that Zelensky asked for on Day 1,” Grosberg said. “If these had been granted right then and had we not delivered heavy equipment a few pieces at a time, the situation could be much different.”

F-16 fighter jets and ATACMS, Grosberg insists, will bring Ukraine “one more step closer to victory” but won’t be “silver bullets” that will decide the war. “Russia is not sitting idly and waiting for the F-16s to arrive. They are taking measures to adapt against them and they have nine months to do so.”

Grosberg isn’t much persuaded by the argument that providing these weapons systems will somehow cross Russia’s “red lines” for escalation, including the use of nuclear weapons."

https://theins.press/en/politics/265092

24. Demographics is destiny.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-66850943

25. 2 businessmen and guys I respect a lot. Good people building massive empires.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Pgyqch_0JXw

26. "Evans has been working steadily and successfully in Hollywood for more than 20 years. But he has not always felt in control there. When he was younger, he acted in a lot of what he now describes as “bad movies.” His first real successes in the industry came by way of a series of characters who were “jocky pricks,” he says: handsome, muscular assholes whose smugness was their most memorable quality.

And then came Steve Rogers, otherwise known as Captain America, a character so defined and iconic—unlike other Marvel heroes, Cap has basically been the same virtuous guy since the day of his invention in 1940—that Evans’s main job was as much to be a caretaker as it was to be an inventor or an explorer.

None of these roles line up all that precisely with the way Evans is in his daily nonworking life, a fact that suits him. “There are some people that you meet and you just think, Man, that’s a movie star,” he says. He is adamant that he is not one of them. “I love to act,” he says. “But it’s not something that I couldn’t live without.” He has had enough success to be financially secure for the rest of his life, and probably a few lifetimes beyond. But despite that success, or maybe because of it, he is interested in, well: anything but the grand narrative of Chris Evans.

“When I don’t pay attention to myself at all,” he says, “and just, you know, question why black holes exist, that brings into perspective a macro understanding of the fact that I’m even here is a miracle. It’s like shooting a bullet with another bullet. I mean, the fact that any of us are here is unbelievable. And that kind of just brings me a sense of deep peace. And I don’t have any more thoughts or questions about my own career.”

https://www.gq.com/story/chris-evans-october-cover-profile-2023

27. Must watch if you are a newbie or old VC. Mike is the BEST and I always learn stuff from him. So many great insights here & Mike has mentored an entire generation of new VCs.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=45v9vOJlK_E

28. Ukrainian SF drone forces targeting Wagner in Sudan. Unexpected but inevitable expansion of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Battlefield is global.

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/09/19/africa/ukraine-military-sudan-wagner-cmd-intl/index.html

29. "While his affable sales persona had helped win over customers and investors alike throughout much of Flexport’s history, and his storytelling skills rocketed him to pandemic-era stardom with his public reporting on the supply chain crisis, Petersen will have to come up with a new playbook to rescue the company from a serious slump.

Flexport is feeling the pain from an industrywide collapse in freight volumes and a sharp drop in the prices that ship, truck and plane operators charge to move cargo. While the company offers flashy tech to help customers see shipping options and track their goods, the way it makes money is by acting as an intermediary, booking freight shipments and pocketing a cut of the price.

Flexport's revenue dropped nearly 70% in the first half of this yearto around $700 million, and it burned through roughly $300 million in cash.

Petersen declined to be interviewed for this story. But in a text message to The Information last Friday, he laid out his agenda for Flexport: “Cut a lot of waste, solve a handful of issues hurting our customer quality, and grow so fast the only answer for how Flexport became so profitable will appear to be divine intervention.

“We will make believers out of all these atheists yet!” Petersen added."

https://www.theinformation.com/articles/can-ryan-petersen-fix-flexport

30. As always, a good convo with Justin Waller. This man is a great model for young men.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=areO3acpMwQ&t=3047s

31. "And as the creator economy began to evolve into a real industry in recent years, he saw his chance to put his idea into motion. Earlier this year, his venture firm, Slow Ventures, set aside $20 million to invest in creators themselves. Now the firm has gone and done it, joining a few individual investors in spending $1.7 million in the future of Marina Mogilko, a 31-year-old YouTube personality with multiple popular channels that touch on topics like life in Silicon Valley and learning new languages. (Slow Ventures is also investing in “serial entrepreneurs” like the Liberman siblings, at least two of whom are coincidentally individual investors in Mogilko.)

The decision to invest directly in humans brings about a host of legal, ethical, and moral questions that Lessin will surely need to confront head-on. The idea that someone might sign a 30-year employment contract and that society should explicitly value a human brings up questions of indentured servitude and worse—claims which Lessin sees as entirely ill-founded. (“it's def not indentured servitude,” he recently wrote in response to someone who said the legal issues seemed “daunting.”)

He believes that he is setting society on a path where we are free to invest in our favorite humans through multiple venture rounds, providing young, brilliant people with the money to fund a path to success that doesn’t exist today." 

https://www.vice.com/en/article/7kb9mg/a-former-facebook-vp-thinks-investing-in-humans-is-the-future-of-vc

32. Graduation of seed to A will be 20% not 80% like it was in the past. Seed stage still needs to correct. AI is real. Back to basics: SaaS should be at massive margins.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GEFLjAshxLk

33. "let’s assume in an imaginary and highly unlikely scenario that the US and Europe stop arming and funding Ukraine. Can we imagine that the Ukrainians will just stop fighting, even then? Why/how can they when Putin has made it clear that he is at war with the Ukrainian nation.

This is a war for Ukraine and Ukrainians’ very survival. They will fight on, long and hard, and as noted above, still will have plenty of arms supplies to make a Russian occupation very costly. And focusing on this, how can Russia enforce a victory in Ukraine? How can it invade the whole country, occupy and sustain that invasion, when we saw the inability of the Russian military to hold even one third of the country, through to Kyiv in the initial few weeks of the full scale invasion. The military, human and economic costs to Russia of forcing through a victory in these circumstances would be unsustainable.

So I don’t buy the line that a long war suits Russia, or that Russia’s position is somehow going to be greatly improved come January 2025 and a Trump second term. All scenarios in the longer term just get worse for Russia.

That is why I think that Putin would still jump at the prospects of peace talks towards the end of this year, perhaps brokered by China - and perhaps after his meeting with Sullivan et al in Malta, perhaps that is what the Chinese foreign minister was angling after with his follow on trip to Moscow this week."

https://timothyash.substack.com/p/ukraine-outlook-q-and-a

34. This was a solid episode. Always talking about timely topics in the tech and cultural businesses.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XS7ypWFGWOQ

35. "The Roman Empire is of course celebrated for its incredible achievements in architecture, governance, and military conquests. However, one aspect of Roman civilization that is often overlooked but really fun is their sophisticated marketing and branding work.

Yes, the Romans were not just builders and conquerors; they were also expert marketers well before ‘marketing’ was a codified practice. After all, every civilization brands itself, it is a natural byproduct of the organization of humans and the sprawling of empires."

https://www.hottakes.space/p/marketing-lessons-from-the-roman

36. This is a great geopolitical snapshot of the world.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dF7uuxRliBU

37. Part 2 of this Geopolitical Snapshot of the world. Very interesting perspective.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fhMX2AB8mjA

Read More
Marvin Liao Marvin Liao

Learning from Italian Chefs & Stanley Tucci

Yes, it’s a random title. But I’ve recently become obsessed with Italian food after watching the new food series “Stanley Tucci: Searching for Italy.” The Hollywood star of Italian heritage travels across all the regions of Italy experiencing the culinary delights specific to each place. Venice, Piedmont, Puglia & Umbria among others. 

A beautiful magical food experience. Really worth watching for foodies of course. But for those interested in watching art and excellence there is nothing better. It’s incredible watching the zest of the chefs who try to harness tradition with the new. 

I learned from the Michelin star awarded Costardi brothers and their new takes of risotto. “We like to take inspiration from what’s happening in our lives. From music, from television, from cinema, from art, from everything.”

It’s why generalists in the long run win. They are learning to put different things together. They end up being more creative and bring new perspectives to solving a problem. Focus is great and important. But being overly focused and specialized leads to creative cul de sacs. And they also end up as dead, boring people too. You want to be around people who are inspiring and alive, who take cues from everything around them. 

It’s as Tucci says in the show. “Adding new ingredients just makes the stew richer.” Life is like that I think. 

Read More
Marvin Liao Marvin Liao

The Storm on the Horizon: Get Ready

I fly way too much. But it gives me time to think, to read and write. It’s the end of the 3rd quarter of 2023.

It’s looking pretty grim. We’ve just come out of a 2 year global pandemic and the incompetent, heavy handed lockdowns across the globe. So many of us have been broken. Businesses have been destroyed, people isolated for 2 years and mentally traumatized.

War continues to be waged by the barbarian Russians in Ukraine. China is aggressively pushing all over Asia, Africa and the Middle East. The world is fracturing into the Global West (USA, EU, Canada, Japan, AUNZ), The Global East (China/Russia) & The Global South (Africa, SEA, India, Middle East and Latam). 

Politically, the USA is divided and the populace angry. Income inequality grows. Large corporations and the government erode and intrude into our privacy and civil rights. Inflation continues and the economy for all intents and purposes is in recession, The job losses abound all over the USA. 

As we have found over the last few cycles, these mass Layoffs started in Tech in Q3 of 2022, then Wall Street followed 6 months later Q1, 2023. It will be happening on MainStreet 6 months after that. Net Net: It’s going to be a rough next few years. 

As the character John Connor from the Terminator movies states: “There is a storm on the horizon. A time of hardship and pain.” 

I’ve railed about the incompetence, arrogance and greed of our politicians. Stupid woke & ESG policies domestically and our foreign encroachments in the Middle East that have wasted lives and resources. 

I’ve also complained about the complacency and entitlement of people in the West, especially in Canada, the USA and Western Europe. All of whom have squandered the prosperity that our ancestors built for us. Our forefathers would be embarrassed by what they see today. Weakness, cowardice, laziness and stupidity. 

But I choose to channel my anger and rage at what I can do and not at what I see. I believe this downward slide can be arrested. As John Connor says: “There is no fate but what we make.” 

We can still turn things around and this starts with yourself. Making yourself stronger, physically and mentally. Learn skills & make money (ethically). Assemble resources and build a strong community. Steeling ourselves for the hardships that will come. 

I loved what was said in the Mandalorian tv show which I really enjoy. Hardship is like a forge. 

“This is the forge. The heart of Mandalorian culture. Just as we shape the Mandalorian steel, we shape ourselves. We all begin as raw ore. We refine ourselves through trials and adversity. The forge can reveal weaknesses.”

So get ready for even more turbulent times. It’s the new Hunger Games coming. Surviving is thriving. And the stronger and better prepared you are, the more people you can help. Charity ultimately starts at home. 

Read More
Marvin Liao Marvin Liao

Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads September 24th, 2023

“Obstacles don’t have to stop you. If you run into a wall, don’t turn around and give up. Figure out how to climb it, go through it, or work around it.” – Michael Jordan

  1. The Bull case for America.

"By nearly every measure, America is doing just fine. Better than fine. Our annual GDP is $26 trillion — 40% greater than China’s, whose population is four times larger. And, despite our enormous output, our economy is still growing, with 2.4% GDP growth last quarter. China’s is higher, but slowing faster than expected.

Meanwhile the yuan continues to slide and this week hit a 16-year low. We have many unique advantages, including unrivaled innovation, the best universities, the best military, strong rule of law, a willingness to embrace risk, and a culture of doing the right thing (I believe this). Last year, U.S. startups received $245 billion in venture funding — roughly equal to the rest of the world combined."

https://www.profgalloway.com/least-bad/

2. "Entrepreneurs would do well to identify the type of independent board member they’re looking for and consider one that’s either a coach, an industry expert, or a functional area expert. Identifying that type of person at the outset will make the process of recruiting the independent board member that much more efficient and productive."

https://davidcummings.org/2023/09/09/types-of-independent-board-members-for-startups/

3. Wide ranging conversation: understanding the world through the lens of tribes.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mIJLW_Rc6Rg&t=899s

4. A beautifully written love letter to New York City. It is an amazing place still.

"Don’t get me wrong — New York City has its problems. It’s not perfectly manicured and its blemishes are evident on any city block. But there’s only way I can possibly describe it: It’s extraordinary."

https://theprofile.substack.com/p/the-profile-the-ceo-fighting-for

5. "The 40-year-old music manager is best known for discovering Justin Bieber and fighting with Taylor Swift. But over the years he has transformed himself from a well-compensated babysitter to the stars into one of pop culture's most influential power brokers.

Last year, he made a billion-dollar deal to sell his company Ithaca Holdings to the South Korean entertainment behemoth Hybe. Along the way, he's gone to great lengths to distinguish himself as a good guy: a family-oriented philanthropist with a strong moral code, known for steering artists out of rough patches.

But many say that far from being an exception in a particularly ugly industry, Braun is one of its most ruthless players — a relentless egotist whose main focus is burnishing his image and growing his empire. The majority asked that their names not be used out of fear of retaliation, citing Braun's reputation for litigiousness. "I've never seen anyone burn so many bridges with so many people," a person familiar with Braun's business dealings said."

https://www.businessinsider.com/scooter-braun-profile-manager-bieber-ariana-grande-kanye-taylor-swift-2022-2

6. "There are moments when we’ve truly, irrevocably, fatally failed, and we should say so. If a company has to shut down, especially before it achieved some meaningful success, then okay, we failed.

Otherwise, find a better way to describe what’s happening, so we understand the situation better, and are pointed in the direction of what we should do next."

https://longform.asmartbear.com/fail

7. "Since then, the internet has increasingly devolved into tribalism. Balaji makes the point that the founder, creators, and influencers who are thriving in the current internet age are "tribal leaders." Call them taste makers, aggregators, curators, whatever you want.

But to bring it back to my core reflection on the rising generation. I want my kids to be aware of the frontiers. And I want to help them to be capable of overcoming the barriers to entry, and engaging with these challenging and compelling frontiers that exist, to solve hard problems."

https://investing1012dot0.substack.com/p/the-rising-generation

8. "This is the company Musk dubbed xAI. He personally recruited Igor Babuschkin, formerly of DeepMind, but he told me he would run it himself. I calculated that would mean he would be running six companies: Tesla, SpaceX and its Starlink unit, Twitter, the Boring Co., Neuralink, and xAI. That was three times as many as Steve Jobs (Apple, Pixar) at his peak."

https://time.com/6310076/elon-musk-ai-walter-isaacson-biography/

9. "The inflection point is coming — sure as it has already with podcasts — for Substack, OnlyFans and any platform where creators are reliant on the largesse of their audiences. When creators realise the dream of financial success and celebrity is sputtering, so too will the impression that this is a radical new future for content creation fade."

https://medium.com/@nickfthilton/the-end-of-the-subscription-era-is-coming-ed197f252c6a

10. "As an economist, I keep saying, follow the artists. They spot the future before the rest of us. I also believe that life sends you invitations. When one came to go to this culturally iconic gathering, I said yes. So, I started making the long trek to feel The Burn. I learned many useful lessons about start-ups, fundraising, visioning, art, and madness that are relevant for people in business.

There is a particular etiquette at Burning Man. No one says, “So, what do you do?” Instead, they offer. They say, “This gives me joy. Maybe it will give you joy too”. People here give the gift of their most interesting ideas, music, songs, and secrets. The implicit question is not “what do you do but what gives you joy?” This gives everyone blanket permission to not be in a silo and to express a wide range of unrelated interests.

The workplace rewards the specialist and considers outside interests a drag on your time. Burning Man rewards those with the most eclectic and obscure interests and considers work a drag on your time. The wise are smart enough to ensure avocation and vocation are aligned. There are lessons here for business conversations. We’ve got to do better than “So what do you do?”

https://drpippa.substack.com/p/the-gift-of-burning-man-lessons-for

11. It's a long one: but worth listening to. Tribes of blue versus red versus gray. Pretty interesting framework to view the world.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EqJoXaNFFjY

12. "Like the animal kingdom, when you know you’ve been gifted a large win, you’re supposed to prepare for the upcoming winter. 

Winter is here thanks to 1) unemployment, 2) credit tightening, 3) student loan payments and 4) major companies now struggling to show y/y growth (excluding the standard 3-5% increase in pricing)."

https://bowtiedbull.io/p/what-us-citizens-should-want-and

13. "Pleasure is what you are after. Why would you be with someone if you don’t find any pleasure in being or working with them. To me, that was the fundamental matter, it sounded so obvious, and yet I hadn’t realized it.

I really loved how he addressed it: Did you ever find pleasure in being with that person or working with them? If the answer is negative, it’s interesting to dig into why you joined them because there might be a wrong pattern going on there. If the answer is positive, get back to those enjoyable moments again and try to understand how and why those encounters felt great.

Then, dig into the things that raised friction and address them together. Very often, the trust that will arise from sharing your vulnerabilities will allow you to solve the dysfunctions of your relationship."

https://2lr.substack.com/p/pleasure

14. "When Peyton Manning left the NFL in 2016, he had plenty of options in retirement.

The Hall of Fame quarterback could have taken a coaching job on any team he wanted. He could have signed a nine-figure broadcasting deal, like Tom Brady’s $375 million agreement with Fox. Or he could have sat back and relaxed, enjoying his $250 million in career earnings without adding any additional stress to his life.

But Manning didn’t do any of those things. Instead, the 2-time Super Bowl Champion has taken on another challenge: Building a billion-dollar sports media company.

Omaha Productions, named after Manning’s infamous audible call, has become one of the hottest companies in sports. The production company works with ESPN, Netflix, the NFL, and many others in the audio and video space. And if you are even a casual sports fan, you have unknowingly seen much of their content over the last few years."

https://huddleup.substack.com/p/peyton-manning-is-building-a-billion

15. Lots of good views here. Patrick Bet-David is a sharp dude.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7shJgAA-na4

16. "In other words, it’s wrong to see this next wave of globalization as a shift of economic activity away from China. Yes, FDI in China will drop, but China will help drive the next wave in totally new and different ways from what it did in the 2000s. It’s a developed country now, and it will start behaving like one.

So I think the future of globalization is bright. Even if the spread of industrial activity to South and Southeast Asia gets interrupted by a major war or hobbled by climate change, the spread of economic activity from region to region is a deep and inexorable economic force that is very hard to deny. This party isn’t over yet."

https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-next-phase-of-globalization-is

17. "Contrary to how some understand the U.S. withdrawal in Afghanistan, the lesson extremists are taking from the Taliban’s success is not simply that jihad works but that diplomacy and engagement are a necessary part of the process, which includes reassuring the West about external threats emerging from their areas. What can be gained from parlays in Doha is more significant and lasting than any terror attack.

In the past month, analysts noted with interest how the Taliban assisted U.S. forces at the Kabul Airport during the evacuation of American citizens and their Afghan allies. The Taliban practically held the door while the U.S. troops departed the country. What appeared bizarre and paradoxical was in fact entirely predictable to anyone who has studied how jihadism, shaped by the past 20 years, has reevaluated its priorities.

The other lesson is to not mess with the U.S. if you can help it; in the case of Iraq and Afghanistan, jihadists fought the U.S. as an occupier not as the “far enemy” as such. The Taliban limited their fight to Afghanistan, while al Qaeda and the Islamic State took the fight to the West. The first succeeded and the other two failed."

https://newlinesmag.com/argument/what-the-global-war-on-terror-really-accomplished/

18. "Despite the grim assessments of some over the past few months, Ukraine is making progress in its ground offensives, holding off a Russian offensive in the north and accelerating its strategic strike campaign. Ukraine now holds the strategic initiative.

Ukrainian diplomatic activity will focus on international support for Ukraine, maintaining the flow of military and economic assistance — and forestalling peace initiatives designed to hand the strategic initiative to Russia.

Finally, Ukraine will want to ensure its people are able to endure the winter conditions."

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-09-12/russia-ukraine-war-winter-mud-snow-cold-temperature-strategy/102839110

19. A lot of stuff is gonna be re-shored soon.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SHOWMnUU02s

20. This is super cool. Digital remake of old Aztec Capital Tenochtitlan.

https://tenochtitlan.thomaskole.nl/

21. "Recently we’ve seen two pretty significant shifts in technology — first with crypto (I’m still a believer) and now with generative AI — that are recreating what is possible.

Moreover, we’ve seen a demographic shift as boomers age out, millennials enter their mid-life crisis / disposable income years, and Gen Z (a cohort that makes millennials look like luddites) takes the mantle of the young and cool.

So there are tons of ‘good’ ideas that didn’t work before but can work today. Midjourney looks a lot like the 100 digital design startups that failed over the last 10 years. New tech (Gen AI) + new distribution (discord) = new opportunities."

https://darcy.substack.com/p/ive-seen-this-before-it-didnt-work

22. "One of the ways we might view contemporary operations in the Ukraine War is through a lens of North versus South. In the south, Ukraine is conducting a campaign which is designed to contribute to it winning the war. In the north, Russia is conducting a campaign that is designed to prolong the war. 

This framing can be useful because it provides insights into the overall strategies of Ukraine and Russia."

https://mickryan.substack.com/p/north-and-south

23. "The focus of this program is to, as opposed to most DoD programs, create unmanned systems that are low-cost, autonomous, fast to produce, and attritable. Given what we’ve seen in Ukraine and what we can expect in a war with the PRC in terms of ammunition expenditure and casualties, focusing on attritable systems that don’t break the bank is a very smart idea.

The challenge is nailing down how we are defining terms like low-cost, attritable, and autonomous, and how we are going to turn them into reality."

https://www.breakingbeijing.com/p/how-to-build-a-robot-army

24. "The message of this whole thing is to start now. Anyone who thinks they are “underpaid” in a non-revenue generating role will get the biggest wake up call of their lives. They will suddenly realize that if there is no existing client base they are worth $0 in the open market. That is right. Their positions, their skills and their tasks have absolutely nothing to offer if starting from ground zero.

This isn’t a bad thing. In fact it is a good thing. You will learn how to sell a lot earlier which makes it 100x easier to secure promotions at your W-2 in the first place! Funny how that works. By trying to start something yourself you will learn 1) the value of an existing customer base and 2) what really matters to the firm. 

This is excruciatingly important. By knowing what truly matters to a firm you can work 50-75% less hours than your peers… yet secure that promotion every 3-years. The firm will recognize that you’re always going all out on what matters and it is hard to even notice the stuff you’re ignoring (since no one cares anyway)."

https://bowtiedbull.io/p/corporations-are-designed-to-bleed

25. Sahil Bloom has built an amazing life and we can all learn from him on his habits and learnings.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TeJiC_lEUi4

26. "Whatever the work is that you are doing, love it, and commit to it. If it’s activism do that. But don’t do photo-op activism. Circulating another petition and getting people to sign a letter that will be forgotten in a month is most likely not “the work,” but we can’t rule it out without further information. 

Only you can know if you are loving the work or acting the superior. But it’s a good meditation exercise: Does this action support “the work” or is it merely putting on airs or sycophancy?"

https://whatiscalledthinking.substack.com/p/love-the-work

27. "It’s the idea of being a contributor. Life is not a zero-sum game, and neither is work. That if all of us contribute just a little bit of what we know and some of our hard work and combine it into a shared potluck, the result is magical and much bigger than any one of us could possibly have imagined."

https://tomtunguz.com/the-art-of-possibility/

28. "Oil is very volatile. It's not like real estate. You can't just sit back and not monitor your portfolio closely, and you need to be ready to dump your positions. It's a very different way of investing."

https://mailchi.mp/f96b1741e9b0/why-i-own-oil-stocks?e=123a1c25c4

29. "Obviously, governments would love to fund themselves at a lower rate than the economic value their debt generates. Using financial repression to ensure that nominal GDP growth is higher than bond yields has been the policy of all the most successful export-led Asian economies since the end of WW2. China, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, etc. have all used this playbook to export their way out of the destruction their countries experienced during and in the wake of WW2.

To implement this type of financial repression, countries must use their banking systems. Banks are instructed to offer depositors low rates. Depositors then have no choice but to earn a negative real yield on their savings, as the government puts restrictions in place that prevent them from moving money out of the system. The banks are then told to lend to state-backed or large, politically connected heavy industrial firms at low rates. 

Deposit Rate < Corporate Loan Rate < Nominal GDP Growth Rate 

The result is that these industrial companies – which require a large amount of CAPEX – get cheap funding to quickly build out a modern manufacturing base. Governments then use these manufacturing bases to accrue sovereign wealth, which is recycled into US Treasuries and other dollar-based financial assets.

Supposedly, these funds can be tapped into when the economy falters. The plebes all get good-paying, blue-collar manufacturing jobs for life. When compared to their prior lives as agricultural peasants, during which they endured a standard of living only slightly better than that of slaves, working nine to five with full benefits for a large corporation is a major improvement.

As it becomes clear that, even with short-term nominal rates at 5.5%, sitting in bonds is a mug's game, capital at the margin will begin seeking hard financial assets. Certain assets such as Bitcoin, big tech / AI stocks, productive farmland, etc. will continue rising and confound the majority of financial analyst muppets."

https://cryptohayes.substack.com/p/are-we-there-yet

30. I'm cheering for Yahoo! to turn around. Very surprised this is happening under Private equity.

"Yahoo is on pace to generate about $7 billion in gross revenue this year, compared to a reported $8 billion in gross revenue last year, though the makeup of the business has changed significantly over that period. Despite the weakness in the ad market, earnings, measured before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, have grown in recent quarters because of operational improvements, the person said.

A turnaround at Yahoo would represent a huge tech win for Apollo, but Lanzone and others say Yahoo is at least a couple of years away from being able to make another run at the public markets.

“Yahoo clearly has had its ups and downs. Right now it’s very much on the up,” said Jonathan Nelson, CEO of Omnicom Digital at Omnicom Group, which owns ad agencies that do business with Yahoo. “It’s kind of miraculous to see this company from the mid-’90s come roaring out almost 30 years later.”

https://www.theinformation.com/articles/can-yahoo-be-saved-how-apollo-is-rebuilding-an-internet-icon

31. More on Sahil Bloom. Such a great story and so many learnings on how to build a creator business.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lSpnnwbZrxo

32. Seems like an interesting book. Dark but interesting.

https://www.vox.com/culture/23840033/vaster-wilds-review-lauren-groff

33. "As it currently stands, no nation alone could challenge U.S. hegemony. Russia is an oil-based exporter with not much diversification in economic terms, China is declining demographically and has an authoritarian government with capital controls (which can’t be held onto if you want to become a WRC). Brazil, India and South Africa are all export based economies.

These countries cannot sustain constant current account deficits and thus would need to switch their economies overnight if they wanted to gain WRC status. That isn't feasible.

And the combination of these countries is no better. Imagine all these nations, with different cultures, histories, traditions, governments, and monetary policies all trying to band together and manage ONE currency with a single monetary policy."

https://dollarendgame.substack.com/p/brics-a-ghost-power

34. Not a fan of his politics but this is pretty spot on about the disaster zone that is California. Lots of telling data here.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=balGGAd6ZrI

35. Back to basics. Susa leading the way to specific concentrated, focused funds. Also why multistage funds are a challenging model to execute.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dWIhC0c2L50

36. Sahil Bloom is an impressive guy. The Personal Holding Company business model exemplified.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bm2l9eXAIew

37. Excellent conversation on global macro situation and IPO market. Worth listening to if u want to understand why the IPO market and VC is broken right now.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X-Sb8sIi22g

Read More
Marvin Liao Marvin Liao

Lessons from the Borderlands: Innovation & Good Things Happen at the Edges

“La Frontera” is a new show by James Beard Award winning chef and tv show host Pati Jinich where she covers the very US Mexico Border. It’s a fascinating show about the culture & community of the border and the free flow of ideas there. 

She states: “Borderland communities exist and live and thrive and get challenged in all sorts of ways, under unique circumstances, so there are these creative possibilities for art and music and religion and food that just couldn’t happen in other places.”

This is an amazing description of frontiers and port towns in general, places where there is a mixing and intermixing of different people and cultures that lead to so many new things. 

This is why I think the existence of pluralistic cultures like the USA, Canada, UK, Brazil, Australia/New Zealand are so important. For city states, port towns or places that fit this criteria, I’d include Hawaii, Dubai, Singapore, Panama and Hong Kong (before it was taken over by China) here. Multicultural, tolerant places that allow different cultures to rub against each other. That friction leads to sparks of new thinking, cross pollination. And lots of beautiful people. This is the ultimate in innovation. 

Pati goes on to say “we’re made to feel like if you’re a combination of things, you’re a lesser person, but it actually means that you have more.  You’re richer.”

I couldn't agree more. 

Read More
Marvin Liao Marvin Liao

Unhappy in Paradise: Grass is Always Greener on the Other Side

So it’s the end of March and I found myself hanging out in beautiful Maui with my family. The sun is shining, the ocean is a spectacular blue, fringed with stark lush greenery. The weather is perfectly tropical. Food is amazing and everyone is happy here. Life should be good.

Yet it’s 2023, a few weeks after the Silicon Valley Banking crisis, I’m stressed, tired and distracted. Since then, I’ve literally been on calls with my now fairly extensive portfolio of startups. And it’s all bad news. No one calls to talk to you about good news. Founders having cofounder problems, runway or fundraising problems. Or what I experienced in just one week: 4 companies calling me to tell me they are shutting down. 

But it’s the game and I accept it. When times are good, enjoy it. But when times are tough, like they are now, it’s your duty and honor to be there for your founders. Otherwise, don’t be an investor. 

Fundraising has dried up, VCs and LPs are scared as we enter a risk-off environment where money is now expensive or scarce.  Layoffs abound across Silicon Valley and will only accelerate through this year. Mentally you are stressed and struggling. 

Yet in contrast, there seem to be so many people around you, especially in my circles that seem to be crushing it. Raising massive sized VC funds, selling their companies, building massively profitable businesses. It’s hard not to feel like a loser, especially when fundraising from LPs has gotten challenging, a bunch of your investee companies are shutting down. You feel stuck and wonder what you are doing wrong. Or even more pernicious, what is wrong with you personally?

But if you want to accomplish anything, you can’t think this way. We don’t know the travails and challenges that others have faced getting there. We still have no idea of the challenges in their life right now. You only see the good stuff. This doesn’t mean take it easy on yourself, let alone excusing yourself. 

You have to step away from social media, shake off your doubts and be grateful for what you have. Then dig in deep, refocus and get back to work. You have a responsibility to yourself and your family to keep going hard. And be prepared to do this for a long time. If you do this, you will be fine. Having been in a bunch of cycles myself over the last 2.5 decades I know how these things go. This is a big test of life. Don’t get too down and definitely don’t quit. 

Atlas (@DentesLeo) on Twitter says it right: 

“I never see the winners complaining about the state of the world, inflation, the crisis or circumstances external to them.

Complaining is a loser's business.

Winners keep playing.”

We can all learn alot from Jeff Bezos here. This is encapsulated in a great tweetstorm by William Green:

“Jeff Bezos on the power of a long time horizon: "If everything you do needs to work on a 3-year time horizon, then you're competing against a lot of people. But if you're willing to invest on a 7-year time horizon, you're now competing against a fraction of those people…”

"Just by lengthening the time horizon, you can engage in endeavors that you could never otherwise pursue. At Amazon we like things to work in 5 to 7 years. We're willing to plant seeds [&] let them grow....we're stubborn on vision & flexible on details."

(Source: https://twitter.com/WilliamGreen72/status/1641185082361757697)

Taking the long term view is key. So get back to work! 

Read More
Marvin Liao Marvin Liao

Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads September 17th, 2023

“The greater the obstacle, the more glory in overcoming it.” – Molière

  1. "The optimal conditions for some ambitious founders may be at odds with what the venture business model requires. That’s not a judgement on the potential scale of the business or the capabilities of the founder; rather, it’s an acknowledgment that the venture model isn’t a great fit for many founders- maybe even the majority of those that raise it.

As the two examples above suggest, there’s a growing wave of founders who are choosing to defer or avoid adding venture risk to their businesses. I think we will see a lot more experienced and capable founders doing the same.

Rather than continuing to hammer on the question of whether a business is or isn’t venture scale, we might be better served asking whether a company and its team are right for venture risk. The likelihood of venture scale is negligible, but the reality of venture risk is universally present once the wire hits."

https://medium.com/@bryce/risky-business-venture-scale-vs-venture-risk-9593cf5ce66c

2. "Given Blumhoue’s focus on horror movies, it’s only fitting to think of how terrifying it would be for Big VC if the low-budget startup goes mainstream…"

https://medium.com/@bryce/the-low-budget-startup-f7d9ed7f139a

3. Vertical media is where it’s at. Everyone needs to be a media co.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G1jI11ZJSto

4. I love what this man is doing for the book industry. I love Barnes & Nobles now.

"Daunt was a respected independent bookseller in London before he found himself running chains in both the U.K. and U.S. He was exactly the sort of person who could make Barnes & Noble interesting. 

His plan to save the company and its bookstores is to combine the power of a big chain with the pleasure of a beloved indie. By shifting control of the process to individual store managers across the country, Daunt is giving local booksellers permission to do things they were never able to do before. 

They have discretion over purchasing, placement and even pricing. He wants Barnes & Noble locations to feel welcoming but not overwhelming—a chain store should be more inviting and less intimidating than a truly independent shop—and that means he needs the people who run them to make sensible decisions for their markets. “It’s only inexcusable if it’s not interesting,” he said. 

Daunt, 59, speaks quietly, as if he were in a library, but the insight at the heart of his management philosophy is worth screaming from the rooftops: find people who are passionate about books and let them sell books as they see fit. This sounds rather obvious when he says it. But entrusting a chain to someone who not long ago was running a posh store in Central London was a radical act of corporate desperation. 

“I think it had to almost die before anyone was prepared to risk that,” Daunt said as we strolled around the Barnes & Noble on the Upper West Side. “It’s no coincidence that I took over Waterstones when it died and I took over this place when it was barely breathing.” 

https://www.wsj.com/articles/barnes-noble-bookstores-james-daunt-c1afc06b

5. "I am willing to admit that the creation of a completely digitised currency system can bring efficiency, homogeneity, and unity to a society, just like the ban liang did for the Qin Empire. But it also comes with many downsides.

It overwhelmingly stifles the agency and diversity of how citizens choose to trade on their own terms. It inevitably funnels an increasingly larger percentage of the value an individual possesses into the banking sector, consolidating more wealth into the hands of a few. It allows our overlords to tax us via inflation even more easily than they can already. And most disturbingly, it makes money—an essential tool for survival in the modern world—a tool to further impose control on a population by our governments."

https://abundantia.substack.com/p/illegal-money

6. "The notion of a Zero-Billion Dollar Market is that it’s something that you can see as an entrepreneur, but no one else believes. As we’ve talked about before, being consensus and correct is wonderful in many parts of life, but not in entrepreneurship. 

If you’re trying to create something new and valuable then it’s generally down the less traveled path, against the grain, and certainly not wildly obvious to others. Value is located when you’re both non-consensus, or contrarian, and also correct."

https://ideas.scotthartley.com/p/zero-billion-dollar-markets

7. "Choices in foreign policy are never simple and are always sub-optimal. The choice faced now is whether to continue to support Ukraine fighting a messy, tragic war, which it may take time to win, or to let it carry on alone, with the prospect of an even more tragic conclusion from which the Western Alliance, let alone Ukraine, might never recover.

As Western countries are not actually doing the fighting and have the resources to sustain Ukraine in its struggle, in the end this is not that difficult a choice to make."

https://samf.substack.com/p/american-grand-strategy-realism-and

8. "The lesson here is pretty simple: If you’re going to commit a multi-million dollar fraud, don’t get caught… and maybe start a little smaller; a whole airport is a hell of a thing to try and blag. But, as the famous saying goes, God loves a trier."

https://www.dmarge.com/how-a-nigerian-fraudster-sold-a-fake-airport-to-japan-for-375-million

9. This guy is 89 years old but he looks several decades younger. Strong of body and mind and bank balance: Ed Thorp. So much to learn here.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CNvz91Jyzbg

10. "When Cucinelli saw his father's "teary eyes," he decided that the objective of his life would be to give those with whom he worked a moral and economic dignity.

As a result, the fashion mogul has been preaching a new business approach called "Humanistic Capitalism," in which money is seen as a tool to improve the human condition. Services, schools, places of worship, and cultural heritage require capital, but they empower the community.

"I believe in capitalism," Cucinelli says. "I need to make a profit, but I would like to do it with ethics, dignity, morals. It's my dream."

https://theprofile.substack.com/p/the-profile-classic-the-philosopher

11. Part 2: Lots of good frameworks and ideas. The power of long term thinking in investing. Ed Thorp is my new hero.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gs39QFYIbBY

12. "Today, with its booming technology sector and thriving tourism, Japan continues to be an exciting place to be. The Japanese stock market looks buoyant now and investors are increasingly drawn to the nation, captivated by its strides in chip technology and other innovations. 

There is no doubt that Japan has undergone significant transformations over the past decades. Yet, for all its changes, my love for the country remains as steadfast as ever."

https://www.markmobius.com/news-events/japan-love-at-first-sight

13. Always inspiring and educational. David Senra. Kanye self belief with Kobe Bryant work ethic.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OJYeSTvV5es

14. "Looking at where the offensive stands today, Ukraine’s decision to attrit Russian forces via fires and advance incrementally with small units played to its strengths. This is a grueling fight. The combat power and reserves available to both sides will play a significant role in determining the outcome. Ukraine’s offensive neither is over, nor has it failed. Ukraine’s prospects depend on how well Western countries resource the Ukrainian war effort into the fall, replace lost equipment, and provide the necessary enablers — above all, artillery ammunition. 

Ultimately, in planning for their support, Western countries must also think beyond the offensive, rather than taking a wait and see approach. This includes learning lessons from this spring and summer to improve Ukraine’s chances in future offensives. Western efforts should be geared to the assumption that the war will continue well into next year, balancing long-term transition programs, such as the transfer of F-16s and scaled up unit training, with managing Ukraine’s more immediate needs.

The West ought to be introspective about missing important decision points, which had a profound impact on the course of the war, constraining everyone’s options later on. Decisions about future support should have been made well before this offensive even began, assuming that it was unlikely to end the war.

The recent anonymous criticism by officials spilling select narratives in the press, rather than fostering an open discussion about Ukraine’s challenges and successes, reveals enduring problems in this war effort: The first, is a lack of Western understanding of how Ukrainian forces fight. The second, which is closely related, is an insufficient Western presence on the ground to enable closer coordination or even the invaluable understanding that could be offered by battlefield observers.

Western capitals have sought to keep this Ukraine’s war, avoiding an in-country presence that includes contractor support or trainers. To be clear, there are Western contractors and companies operating independently in Ukraine, but this is not the same as a government sanctioned and supported effort. There is much more that could be done without becoming directly involved in fighting or deploying uniformed personnel on the ground.

The hitherto cautious approach has clear limits to its efficacy. Western support thus far has been sufficient to avert a Ukrainian defeat, and arguably has imposed a strategic defeat on Russia, but not enough to ensure a Ukrainian victory. Independent of the outcome of this offensive, Western countries need to be clear-eyed about the fact that this will be a long war. Taken together, Western industrial and military potential greatly exceeds Russia’s, but without the political will, potential alone will not translate into results."

https://warontherocks.com/2023/09/perseverance-and-adaptation-ukraines-counteroffensive-at-three-months/

15. "We can and should be aspire to be more like the 747 than the glass cannon. We are entirely capable of enduring, adapting, and overcoming many scenarios and situations, especially in the modern day. Most of the threats and fears that consume us are social or self-esteem related rather than truly life threatening.

But the ancient fear centers of our brain can't always make the distinction.

But when you know you are resilient, fear loses its vice-like grip. You are no longer trapped in its prison. When you know you can handle most any circumstance, whether withering criticism, a bad breakup, an unfortunate firing—you are more willing to aim high and swing big.

You are not a glass cannon. You can take the hit and keep going. So go for it."

https://www.jasonshen.com/168/

16. "The Chinese will also have observed how outrageously and brutally the Russians can behave without Western forces intervening. This will inform the Chinese decision-making about the level of military aggression towards Taiwan before and during any conflict. However, given recent statements about the re-education of the Taiwanese after any Chinese invasion, we can assume that China will not recoil from the kind of brutality demonstrated by Russia against the Ukrainian people in the past 18 months.

Nearly 600 days since the beginning of the 2022 Russian invasion, we must assume that the Chinese government and their military has studied this war at least as closely as they studied the 1991 Gulf War. It is prudent that we assume they will learn and adapt, even if there are gaps or shortfalls in the institutional capacity for the Chinese to make a full range of transformations based on Ukraine. 

Because their learning and adaptation does not have to make them perfect. They just need to be slightly better than their adversaries."

https://mickryan.substack.com/p/what-china-is-learning-from-the-ukraine

17. It's been fascinating watching the journey of the brilliant Liberman brothers. The guys are on the cutting edge of the tech business industry.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5zP75PCZ_P0&t=4272s

18. Burning Man is not for me but we live in a free country so do whatever. Don’t understand the hate for it.

"It’s perfectly fine to ignore stuff you don’t care about, or don’t like. There are any number of reasons Burning Man is probably not for you. It’s probably not for me, honestly, at this stage of my life. But the hatred for it? That has nothing to do with the event, which most of the haters online have never attended. It also has nothing to do with people at the event, who most of the haters have never met. No, this wasn’t about techies or hippies or woke idiots. This wasn’t about socialism, or God.

For the average hater, this was war with the demonic apparitions of their own self-doubt, and all their insecurities, on a public stage before an audience of millions. The “cringe social media influencers” were not at Burning Man, in other words. They were glued to their newsfeeds, inside, on a nice day. A little bit pathetic, if we’re being honest. 

Now try to be less embarrassing, or at least have the decency to shut up and let people like shit."

https://www.piratewires.com/p/rage-against-the-wooden-man

19. "Argentina’s GDP graph cratering from the heights of one of the wealthiest nations on earth is one for the history books, and it has become a famous case study at this point of what not to do if a country likes economic growth and prosperity. Today we will go over some of the causes of the century long decline, and reasons why Argentina never fully goes bust compared to countries like Venezuela or Cuba."

https://www.bowtiedmara.io/p/argentinas-century-long-decline

20. "Today we dive into the fascinating story of one of the early flag planters of Argentina who even minted his own shitcoins, and the related campaign to conquer as must of the unclaimed deserted territory in the south as possible before Chile was able to lay a claim on most of Patagonia.

As you can see, planting flags and expanding territory was a bit more violent in those times."

https://www.bowtiedmara.io/p/argentinas-last-frontier-and-the

21. I think we are all rooting for Kleiner Perkins to make their comeback. One of the storied firms in SV, expousing the craftsman mentality.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qRGp6npx0PI

22. "So you can see the changing contours of a new emerging order. With Beijing, Moscow and New Delhi leading the charge (and Brasilia and Pretoria as fellow travellers) an attempt is made to shift dependence on the West towards new power centres who can shape world events to their favour by collaborating. Again, the war in Ukraine is a case in point and Russia is a keen partner of team BRICS.

At best it is a mixed bunch with aspirations that are hard to materialize. BRICS is more of directional movement than a power block that is ready to dismantle the US-led world. But if Americans do vote to retreat there is an opportunity for this grouping to begin to start influencing that global order in a more serious way.

Much like BRICS itself that order is increasingly a fractured one where different power centres will strive to preserve their place in a decentralized and less global world."

https://pieterdorsman.substack.com/p/brics-time

23. "I would argue that the only thing that China has perhaps learned from Putin's wars on Ukraine has been that Fortress Russia economic settings have worked in that they have provided some durability to the Russian economy in the face of Western sanctions. And I think what we have seen in recent years is the adoption of Fortress China economic policy settings.

This has meant accelerating efforts at deleveraging - trying to let down bubbles in the real estate, shadow banking, et al sectors. And on the growth front, it means accepting a much lower growth target which the hope is that it ensures fewer balance sheet vulnerabilities going forward to Western sanctions when they inevitably come.

Xi is also building a nationalist economic narrative - a more socially inclusive, almost socialist agenda, "levelling down" almost to ensure the support of the mass of the population both while he has embarked on the concentration of power around himself but as the geopolitical outlook darkens. I assume herein if there is a trade off lower real GDP growth for geopolitical insulation/security that Xi assumes its more important to take the majority of the population with him rather than the elites and middle class who have done best from the globalisation trend over the past 30 years. This explains his attack on private education, corruption and the affordability of housing.

The combined impact of all the above has been a crisis of confidence in China both because of the slowdown in foreign investment but also the policy choices, and mistakes, being rolled out by Xi and his team."

https://timothyash.substack.com/p/china-copies-fortress-economic-policy

24. So many ways to build an enduring VC firm. Lessons from General Catalyst.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HESSmrfCgF4

25. "I must now acknowledge that I was entirely mistaken. Not only has the VC industry suffered significant setbacks in recent times, but the surviving VC firms are those that have adhered closely to the original VC playbook.

A whole era of rapid growth and innovation has receded into the past—the metaphorical door closing on startups. Yet, ample space remains for excelling and prospering at doing capitalism, similar to the scenario in the 1970s, when trailblazers introduced us to novel business strategy tools and methodologies, as well as leveraged buyouts."

https://europeanstraits.substack.com/p/startups-the-door-is-closing

26. "World War 2 wasn’t just the thing that brought the United States all the way back from the Depression; it made the U.S. the center of global innovation for many decades to come. 

That history is probably on China’s leaders’ minds as they contemplate starting a major great-power conflict. Of course there are other possible outcomes as well — Germany, Japan, Russia, and Britain didn’t benefit economically from the world wars, to say the least. But with their economy in the dumps and their technology under pressure from foreign restrictions, China’s leaders may see the potential upside of war mobilization as a benefit to add into their mental calculations.

Ultimately, I still think that war would be a very foolish choice for China — the risk of having its rise crushed by a global coalition, or being obliterated in a nuclear exchange, outweighs the modest gains from conquering pieces of Asia. China is already a very large country, with little need for additional territory or population; conquest and hegemony simply aren’t worth the risk. 

But as leaders from Kaiser Wilhelm to Vladimir Putin have shown, national leaders are not always wise or risk-averse. And when the economic costs of war decrease and the potential upside increases, their natural overconfidence and aggression may gain the upper hand. Unfortunately, every economic factor I can think of seems to point to a major war being less risky for China on the margin compared to five or ten years ago. All I can say is that I hope cooler heads prevail and deterrence succeeds."

https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/chinas-slowdown-and-the-incentives

27. "A moat can be based on various factors, such as your tech, your network, your brand, oryour customer loyalty. A moat matters because it helps you generate more value for your stakeholders and reduces the risk of disruption or commoditization. And they usually grow stronger over time.

Building moats is easier said than done. In the early stages, moats are difficult or nearly impossible to demonstrate.

The strongest moats help ensure you have a business that sustains value over the long run, and honing in on these levers early on can help you focus your strategy. Moats often grow by just executing. They are compounding. So, ask yourself this: What is your compounding moat?"

https://www.yannickoswald.com/post/what-is-your-moat

28. "As one thoughtful Ukrainian colleague put it in a later discussion, they expected someone would ‘open the gates’ for them. Hence little effort was made to isolate the theater, cut ground lines of communication, or engage in other actions that I think analysts anticipated as part of the operation. Russian forces did not conduct a combined arms operation, but essentially drove in, initially trying to conduct ‘thunder runs’ along divergent axes of advance.

This takes us to why analysts rated Ukrainian chances as low. I think there were several reasons for this, but I would highlight that Ukraine did not appear to be preparing a defense against a full-scale invasion. Kyiv had taken steps in secret, but many of the preparations, from mobilization to deployments, were made last minute, and often from the bottom up."

https://samf.substack.com/p/an-interview-with-mike-kofman

29. "The reality is that the vast majority of businesses cannot possibly support the type of super-linear growth required to go from zero to $100m+ in annual revenue in 7-10 years. Marvin Liao of Diaspora Ventures noted that companies whose revenue grows linearly with the number of employees, like consulting firms, will never be able to achieve this. That doesn’t mean those aren’t incredible businesses — it just means that they’re not a fit for VC funding.

Unfortunately, many founders aren’t ready to hear this.

Between the deafening hype of VC in the media and the encouraging yet often misguided notion that all founders need to do is find “just one investor” who sees their vision, too many founders get caught up on an endless quest to find mythical investors that simply don’t exist."

https://chrisneumann.com/blog/vc-probably-isnt-right-for-you

30. "One question that I often get from founders — how did we feel after surviving Facebook? Waking up to news that Facebook is your newest competitor is a nightmare for almost every consumer founder, so I understand the curiosity.

The easy answer is we felt invincible coming to work everyday. We had survived our greatest threat. 

We don’t have championships in tech, but if there is a championship to win as a consumer company, beating Facebook in your own market is the trophy you want to win."

https://jeffmorrisjr.substack.com/p/when-facebook-tried-to-kill-tinder

31. Learning about the craft of VC here.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KPUTL5NNQOE

32. Pretty solid discussion on how to build a podcast show. I love "Acquired."

Good guys those two.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ixN-HR-aR8A&t=156s

33. Defensetech is here.

“Part of the movement is driven by an awareness of the Russian war in Ukraine, several VCs said, which has highlighted the role defense can play in protecting values of democracy.

You have an aggressor nation, taking land and causing death and destruction to civilians,” said Raj Shah, managing partner of Shield Capital, adding that tech workers “want to do something to help and they want to have meaning in their lives. And photo-sharing apps are only so important.”

As Lux co-founder Josh Wolfe said, “Do you want to build software that has people clicking on ads, or do you want to do things that have a lasting impact on the safety and security of the American people and helping to reduce human suffering around the world?”

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/07/startup-investors-fuel-boom-in-us-defense-tech-amid-china-standoff.html

Read More
Marvin Liao Marvin Liao

There is No Finish Line: Playing the Long Game

I came across an excellent post by CEO coach Matt Munson, a few months ago. It really triggered a lot of thinking. The title is perfect and has been a big struggle throughout my adult life: “Rethinking Ambition: How to navigate the tension between reaching high and living a more content life.”

He goes on to say: 

“One key mistake I made was not aligning my work with a purpose I cared about. Another was approaching the work with a finish line in mind.

I hold ambition quite differently now.

There is no end game to our work at my coaching firm Sanity Labs. We know the change we exist to effect, but there is no arriving. And that is how we like it.” 

Source: https://www.mattmunson.me/rethinking-ambition/

I’ve always been very goal driven. I’ve always been very type A-aggressive. It’s gotten me to where I am now. This is the formula that is driven into our brains growing up. 

It’s our programming: “If I get X, then I will be Y.” A common example for many young people:  “If I make a billion dollars, I will be happy”. Or If I get married, I will never be lonely and my life will be fulfilled.” You think your happiness and contentment will happen when you get there or meet your goal.

Yet like many people, when you hit your big goals, what happens is, surprise, surprise, you aren’t as happy as you thought you would be. So then you go pick new goals in the hope that this will fix that. But like any treadmill it never ends. You find out that when your happiness is dependent on these goals, you never end up being fulfilled. 

As I’ve gotten older, gotten past old goals and learned more about myself, I’ve realized that there is no end goal except the end of your life. So the cliche of enjoying the journey becomes even more important. You can still have a mission, you can still have big ambitions and be goal oriented. But if you aren’t enjoying the path most of the time, with a big stress on “most of the time”, you are probably doing something wrong. 

It’s not to see you have to become a complete hedonist or sybarite, you still have to grind, to do hard things that hurt and challenge you. Having massive sized goals does that for you. Humans thrive on challenge and hardship and this is what brings out the best of us. It’s that careful balance between ambition and contentment. That’s what true happiness really is about in life: Understanding that there is no finish line, except for death. 

This has been a big relief to me personally and has allowed me to really enjoy my life. I believe this might help you too. 

Read More
Marvin Liao Marvin Liao

Shall We Dance: Get Some Hobbies and Passions for a Better Life

Most of the time Hollywood remakes are terrible compared to the original versions. But for a change, I thought the Hollywood remake of “Shall we Dance” starring Richard Gere and Jennifer Lopez aka JLo was much superior to the Japanese original. 

It’s a story about a married man in Chicago living a conventional life as a lawyer. He has a wonderful loving family and great career but he feels an emptiness, like something is missing.

  

Commuting every day on the train to and from work he looks outside one day. He sees a dance studio where he notices a stunning woman. He decides to take ballroom dance lessons secretly and he is entranced. The adventure begins as he becomes really good at it.  And his life is transformed as this sparks new joy for him. 

It’s a wonderful story and I think it captures the lives of quiet desperation many people live. Doing what they think they are supposed to do. What their families and society tells them to do. The conventional life. 

We’re taught to focus on school, to focus on our careers and our families. Yet we end up giving little to ourselves. That’s why it’s important to have passions and hobbies outside of the important spheres of work and relationships. It’s something that you can have to yourself. It’s an important part of self development. 

As Naval Ravikant wrote: "The ideal life would be one where you had a hobby that as a byproduct made you money, you had a hobby that as a byproduct kept you healthy, you had a hobby that as a byproduct made you smarter and more creative."

Hobbies teach you new things. Hobbies Give you new perspectives. Having hobbies makes you a much more interesting person. We have enough bland people in our world. So try to develop as many new hobbies as you can. It will also bring a new element of joy in your life. 

Paraphrasing the brilliant Luke Belmar: “It’s not ‘Jack of All Trades, Master of None’, ‘It’s Jack of All Trades, Master of All.”

Read More
Marvin Liao Marvin Liao

Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads September 10th, 2023

“Obstacles are those frightful things you see when you take your eyes off your goal.” – Henry Ford.

  1. A very sober conversation with 2 very experienced top VCs. Newbie VCs and founders should be listening to this.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yGvb8Pwtsbg

2. Warms my heart to see this.

https://www.axios.com/2023/08/29/yahoo-apollo-renaissance-jim-lanzone

3. "The learnings: (1) Freedom is the real goal, (2) Environment is everything, (3) Insecurity is natural, (4) Always know the game you're playing, (5) Create value with no expectation, (6) Owned distribution is a cheat code, (7) Success isn't always loud, (8) No one has it all figured out, (9) Entrepreneurial loneliness is a real problem, and (10) Solve the problem by seeing it differently.

My Rule for Life: Find the room where it happens. Get in that room. Once you're in it, help others get there."

https://www.sahilbloom.com/newsletter/10-learnings-from-a-mastermind

4. "The Ukrainian side are sending a clear message that they are in this for the long haul, they have no other place to go. Notable herein I think it is counter to the view that Ukraine only has an 18 month window, until potentially Trump takes back power in February 2025, to fight, after this Western arms and financing will stop, and Russia will again inevitably win. Perhaps that is supposed to be the tenth phase for some.

The problem with the latter, and which I think is now panning out in the ninth phase I detail above is how Trump winning, withdrawing support for Ukraine, still inevitably leads to a speedy win for Russia.

Even in that scenario, I don’t see how Russia enforces a win against a country that refuses to surrender, is willing to continue the fight, still has plenty and likely even more Western military kit by then, and likely still financing from European, and non U.S. allies. Ukraine can still drag on the war for Russia a very long time after February 2025, making this a still massive drain on Russia, it’s economy and population."

https://timothyash.substack.com/p/putins-war-on-ukraine

5. "The Fed, knowingly or not, is basically in charge of the global financial system. They may shout, “We raise rates in the US to fight inflation, global consequences be damned!!” - But that’s a hell of a lot more difficult to follow when large G7 countries are in the early stages of a full blown currency crisis.

 The most serious implication is that the Fed is responsible for supplying dollars to everyone. When they raise rates, they trigger a margin call on the entire world. They need to bail them out by supplying them with fresh dollars to stabilize their currencies.

In other words, the Fed has to run the loosest and most accommodative monetary policy worldwide- they must keep rates as low as possible, and print as much as possible, in order to keep the global financial system running. If they don’t do that, sovereigns begin to blow up, like Japan did last week and like England did on Wednesday.

And if the world’s financial system implodes, they must bail out not only the United States, but virtually every global central bank. This is the Sword of Damocles. The money needed for this would be well in the dozens of trillions."

https://dollarendgame.substack.com/p/the-sword-of-damocles


6. Dan Koe on being the ultimate creative self. Learned a lot.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D3SMpmJmLEY

7. I enjoy these jaunts across the business world with NIA. I always learn something new.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LU8ChmKwLKY&t=276s

8. The VC startup factory is dead.....this is really insightful and true.

If you want to be relevant you have to unlearn everything we learned in VC over the last 10-15 years.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=py7IPmDKjb4&t=1684s

9. "Despite the evident dangers, venture capitalists and celebrity investors have eagerly jumped into the fray. Maximus, a Los Angeles–based telemedicine platform for men launched in 2020, raised $15 million from investors including Keith Rabois at Founders Fund and Matteo Franceschetti, founder of smart-mattress company Eight Sleep. 

A competitor, Hone Health, launched a few months later and closed a $7.8 million early-stage round this July. Yet another, Lifeforce, founded by motivational speaker Tony Robbins, Dugal Bain-Kim and Peter Diamandis, launched in 2021 and closed a $12 million Series A this May.

In general, TRT companies tap into a specific brand of male insecurity, one heavily inflected with Silicon Valley notions about optimization and performance. The marketing is peak biohacker bro: Gameday Men’s Health, a national chain, markets its clinic’s “man-cave environment” (think flat-screen TVs, leather chairs and snacks); T-boosting supplement brands come with names like Swolverine, Prime Male and Hunter Test.

Sellers tell customers repeatedly they’re not in it alone—“you are a tribe” with a collective goal to “unlock living younger.” It’s the kind of men’s movement that both Andrew Huberman and Jordan Peterson could get behind. Tweeted Elon Musk last December: “Testosterone rocks, ngl.”

https://www.theinformation.com/articles/inside-silicon-valleys-new-boys-club-the-testosterone-testing-t-party

10. Interesting AI company.

https://tomtunguz.com/context-announcement/

11. "We can learn a lot about warfare from the war in Ukraine. Most importantly, it gives us a glimpse into the future of proxy conflicts and civil wars (the most significant types of war possible without going nuclear). 

Future wars of this type will feature:

-Trench warfare. Physical realm (attrition).

-Drone warfare.  Physical realm (attrition). 

-Online warfare. Physical, Psychological, and Moral realm (attrition, maneuver, and guerrilla warfare)."

https://johnrobb.substack.com/p/replicator

12. "So the next time you’re hunched over your laptop, the coffee’s gone cold, and you’re plugging away, ask yourself: "Is my product serving its current user, or is it built to also attract the next 1000?"

This is not 1+1=2; this is 1+1=11. Symbiotic Growth changes the game. A different state of mind. It's a viral loop that doesn’t rely on network effects for scale—it creates its own network effect."

https://latecheckout.substack.com/p/what-kind-of-startup-are-you-building

13. This is amazing learning from the richest man in New Zealand.

“Your career is no more or less than a set of steps up a staircase.”

- But the cumulative output of those steps, the investment decisions you make each time you step up, the opportunity costs that you incur when you make a suboptimal decision — they all combine to give you an end result at the end of your 40 year career — so it’s about realized your full potential, no more or less than that.

Now if you’re young, it’s hard to reconcile, 40 or 50 years in front of you, that’s 2000 work weeks, 120,000 hours, that’s a long time - but I’m telling you, if you just spend some time thinking as you go forward, in 40 years, you will ensure that you realized your full potential."

https://privatequityguy.beehiiv.com/p/poor-smart-deep-desire-become-rich

14. "The company managed to 10X its value in less than three years while maintaining a positive and pleasant work environment. Last year, Glassdoor ranked Nvidia as America's best workplace based on employee feedback. In a separate survey, 97% of Nvidia employees said it was a great place to work — compared to an average of 57% at typical U.S.-based companies. 

Generation-defining innovations. Incredible financial success. Happy employees. How did Nvidia do it? 

Not by bringing everyone back to the office. 

It embraced remote and distributed work more than any other tech giant."

https://www.drorpoleg.com/nvidia-the-distributed-rocketship/


15. This is one of the most interesting and exciting startups I've heard about in a long while. Teamshares.

https://techcrunch.com/2023/08/24/this-venture-backed-startup-has-quietly-bought-more-than-80-mom-and-pop-shops/

16. It’s sad that this is needed but here we are. Taiwanese preparing for a CCP invasion.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lB7F-2JAHnk

17. I frigging love this show. So many tips for better living.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?app=desktop&v=_fklX2OonR0&t=5014s

18. Good interview with creative entrepreneur Nuseir of Nas Daily.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YRfi2yR3hBo&t=48s

19. "If we are genuinely interested in helping Ukraine to succeed in its basic objectives – which sometimes may seem in doubt – we need to get serious about replacing the current piecemeal system of drip-feed donations with a large-scale systematic resupply and re-equipment. And the planning needs to begin now.

The aim must be to help Ukraine create armed forces able to integrate properly with its western allies and defend itself beyond the “spring offensive”. The reward for success will be a new, invigorated and dynamic component of our polity."

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/may/19/west-ukraine-win-war-military-support

20. "While failure is not the objective, we celebrate the courage to take risks. Failure is an inherent part of the entrepreneurial journey. By acknowledging and learning from it, we set the stage for the next round of entrepreneurs to enter the arena."

https://davidcummings.org/2023/08/26/embrace-startup-failures/

21. I'm not a fan of Vegetable Joe and the Democrats but many of the GOP seem like soulless fcuks........especially Vivek.

"That is not the kind of tech person that tech people should want as their champion, or as their representative on the national political stage. It presents an image of the tech world as a generator of pump-and-dump scams rather than engineering competence.

A techie candidate can’t be expected to know everything about everything, but he should at least be expected to know more than the average Beltway pundit. Someday there will be a candidate from a tech background who effectively embodies the meritocracy and competence that Vivek pays lip service to. But it is not Vivek."

https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/hey-tech-folks-vivek-ramaswamy-is

22. "For entrepreneurs who firmly believe in the value of frequent face-to-face interactions and aspire to attract talent from all over, this innovative in-office plan, allowing employees to reside anywhere, merits consideration."

https://davidcummings.org/2023/09/02/the-in-office-plan-where-you-can-live-anywhere/

23. "In terms of rules, I actually agree there are very few "rules" in real life, but there arepowerful forces. Forces that can be difficult to escape from or avoid. As powerful as gravity, but as made up as capitalism. And some of these forces shape the way that companies are made, and capital is deployed.

Choosing your investors comes with a lot of structural baggage. Your investors have expectations that you may not have. Their game has certain forces at work that require certain outcomes. And if they don't get the outcomes they hope for? It can lead to bad behavior."

https://investing1012dot0.substack.com/p/player-different-stupider-games

24. "With those caveats, though, you know what might be the biggest Big Tech side hustle? 

Amazon advertising. 

In Q1 2022, the e-commerce firm officially separated its ad business in company filings (for years, ads had been classified under “other revenue”). The punchline: Amazon’s ad platform is currently on an annual revenue run rate of ~$43B, which is more than the combined revenue of Bing, Snap, Twitter/X, Pinterest and TikTok."

https://www.readtrung.com/p/amazons-43b-ad-business-explained

25. "Audience building is a lifestyle.

It is the act of capturing, curating, connecting, creating, and distributing valuable information, resources, and products in a way that impacts positive behavior change.

If you don’t pursue a better life for yourself, you will fail.

A better life demands the habits of learning, building, and distributing."

https://thedankoe.com/letters/why-micro-education-businesses-are-the-future-zero-dollars-to-start/

26. "Let this be your wakeup call. Let this be a moment for you to re-evaluate your priorities and, possibly, switch gears. Because life is too short to work on things that don’t make you come alive.

After all, in the end, only the passionate survive."

https://ofdollarsanddata.com/only-the-passionate-survive/

27. Helpful supplements list from Dr. Andrew Huberman.

https://medium.com/@podclips/dr-andrew-hubermans-supplement-recommendations-7491483e778b

28. "I do, however, want to share a few words about what this show says about the world of Freshmanistan, or the world of internally-mediated rivalries that every high school in America embodies. I believe any high school is the perfect “arena” to be in if you want to understand the nature of the battles playing out in our country today. 

Most of the external conflict in our world is caused by internal conflict—internal conflict that prevents us from seeing, understanding, and knowing other people clearly and deeply, including ourselves."

https://read.lukeburgis.com/p/the-beauty-of-freshmanistan

29. "The problem is that the economic and monetary conditions in the US today are markedly different from what they were in 1980. Anyone who thinks the Fed can run the same playbook and achieve the same result is going to experience something akin to my recent kitesurfing episode. In short, what worked in past idyllic conditions will not succeed in the rough, tumble, and competitive times of today."

https://medium.com/@cryptohayes/kite-or-board-64bc45d49931

30. "For the past year, this has become a regular routine for 44-year-old David Keohan who holds a kettlebell lifting world record and has lately become a star in the world of stone lifting, an ancient practice that’s experiencing a surprising resurgence. He’s traveling around Ireland uncovering the country’s lost lifting stones, and today he’s looking for the Flag of Denn."

https://www.gq.com/story/the-quest-to-pick-up-the-lost-lifting-stones-of-ireland

31. Looking at Revenue leaders’ tech stack.

https://thegtmnewsletter.substack.com/p/ai-and-the-evolution-of-the-modern

32. Can't wait to get this book. "Twilight Cities"

https://www.thenationalnews.com/weekend/2023/08/04/the-rise-and-fall-of-the-mediterraneans-most-powerful-cities/

33. So many insights here. I always learn from David Senra (and Chris Williamson).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7iBPbHgjHC0

34. "Klaviyo is a fast growing, incredibly efficient, profitable software company : an ideal specimen for one of the first software IPOs in the fall. Congratulations to the team on building a paragon of a SaaS business!"

https://tomtunguz.com/klaviyo-s1/

35. "You can just write that book. You can just produce your own documentary. You can start a podcast. You can write short stories. You can start a book club online or in your town. You can start a non-profit. You can organize a fundraiser for your community. There are so many things that you can just do now and most of these are practically free using the internet."

https://boundless.substack.com/p/there-are-no-gatekeepers-238

36. "This will take time. Decoupling is not an instantaneous process. China spent two decades becoming the workshop of the world; the rest of the developing world isn’t going to mirror that accomplishment in one or two years. 

But there are reasons to think the process is just getting started. Although the Economist articles present decoupling as being driven by Biden’s policies, the truth is that the U.S. government has barely begun to push. Export controls are narrowly focused on the chip industry, and the Inflation Reduction Act isn’t really about decoupling at all.

Other than that, all Biden has done so far is a set of investment restrictions that was very weak and narrowly targeted at a couple of high-tech industries, some minuscule investments in onshoring of critical minerals, and some minor deals with allies to share the benefits of green energy tax credits. He kept Trump’s old tariffs on China in place, but didn’t strengthen them. 

That means that so far, most of the decoupling that’s being done is being driven by the prudent decisions of private companies and investors — natural market forces, rather than the visible hand of government policy. There’s no reason to expect those forces to reverse themselves — even setting aside the threat of war, every nation has seen some manufacturing activity leave for cheaper countries once costs rise.

And meanwhile, the engine of U.S. government policy — and European government policy, etc. — is just revving up. Once policymakers figure out which policies actually speed decoupling without injuring the economy, you can expect them to double down on those.

This is only the very beginning of the decoupling story."

https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/decoupling-isnt-phoney

37. "Offering Kyiv enduring support may not be welcome news to many Western politicians, given the upcoming elections in the United States and some European countries. But over the past 18 months, the Ukrainians have demonstrated a will to fight, the capacity to absorb new weapons, and the ability to learn, adapt, and improve their military effectiveness.

The next way to help the Ukrainians continue their evolution in quality and endurance is making sure they know the West is prepared to support them in their fight to defeat Russia and to offer this support in 2024 and beyond."

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/win-long-war-strategy-counteroffensive

Read More
Marvin Liao Marvin Liao

The Only Certainty: Death as a Compass

I finally had a chance to check out Mark Manson’s self help book and movie “Subtle Art of Not Giving a Fu-k” and it is as powerful as I expected it to be. I do understand why it was a bestseller. 

I learned about Manson’s Law of Avoidance which is “people will avoid an action or experience in proportion to how much it threatens their identity and worldview…..it’s true for both positive and negative actions.”

I also learned about how dangerous certainty is. And what a trap it becomes in life. It prevents you from changing your life for the better. 

“It’s more effective to look for doubt. What could you potentially be wrong about? what beliefs can be improved upon? What could potentially change? Those are more effective questions.”


The only thing we can be certain of is death. Why be afraid of death if you aren’t trying to fully live. 


Death is a wake up call. “You have to pick something and care. Cause it can be gone any moment. When it goes, it goes fast and nobody is prepared for it.”

That’s why it’s good to stand on the edge of a cliff. It raises your body’s awareness and fear, you are wide awake. 

“Only in the face of death all the superficial bullshitty values that we buy into fall away. 

You start to realize the dumb status games no longer mean anything or that the achievements or the accolades you struggled for so many years for, nobody cares about when you are gone. 

When we avoid the question of death, that’s when we get hijacked by soulless, superficial and hateful ideas.

Thinking about death removes all that. It forces you to see that 99% of the shit going on in your day to day life doesn’t f—ing matter.”

Powerful but eternal truths in human life. 

“Death is the only certainty in life. Therefore death must be the  compass we orient all our values and decisions. How are we using our time? How are we using our limited f—ks? Who are we going to be with?”


As I get older this becomes even more clear. What an incredible and effective tool for living a better life. 

Read More
Marvin Liao Marvin Liao

Entering a Scary New World: Unipolar Hegemony to MultiPolar World

It’s hard not to watch the news and be dismayed. Everything seems so grim. I grew up in a world where the USA was the dominant power and espoused a hopeful future. That clearly has changed over the last 20 years as we have become an incompetent & corrupt elite-driven gerontocracy. 

Our leadership and elites act like heroes when they are zeroes. They are inheritors, not builders. Literally squandering all the good will, resources and trust that has been built up over many previous decades. 

We have outsourced much of our key manufacturing industries and helped grow our most dire threat in China. Run by the CCP which under Xi has clearly identified the USA & the West as their enemy. They have been operating in hybrid war methodology for over a decade, maybe even longer, while we have gotten lazy and compromised. Or maybe some of us have been driven by the naive view that they will become democratic and espouse liberal western values. That has clearly not turned out to be the case. 

It’s not Right or Wrong. It’s Win or Lose. Russia & China play by very different rules and they see things as existential. Hence they will do whatever it takes. Not sure the USA & West feel or act in the same way. We have become comfortable and compromised, weakened monetarily, militarily and morale wise by horrible foreign policy in Afghanistan and Iraq that has left the American populace and our allies cynical and disheartened. Sadly, only a major catastrophe will shock us into waking up. 

But I remain hopeful. We are still dominant in key areas of biotech, semiconductors and other areas of technology. We have a well educated populace with an immense capacity for change. Even if they are dragged into it kicking and screaming, Americans have done this before. 

And we are driven by an individualistic society where it's true a small number of people can make a difference. America is Extremistan. We are entering a phase of the world and life that will be even more so. BIG challenges but also BIG opportunities. And it will require a whole new level of ruthlessness, sacrifice, of transformation and performance than we’ve ever seen before if we are to get through this. 

This is why I always encourage and push for everyone to push themselves, physically and mentally. Chase the hard stuff that makes you feel pain. If you feel pain, it means you are growing. Develop a huge capacity for hard work. Be prepared to grind for a long period of time. 

Go Build a business or businesses. Be financially independent. Basically as I’ve written many times before, be physically fit and financially lit. These are the basics of every adult male (or should be). It’s all about self development. Becoming a higher level of yourself. 

You should also learn to fight (boxing or muay thai is pretty damn good) and shoot weapons to protect your family and neighborhood, because it will get ugly before it gets better. 

Most importantly, to have a larger ambitious mission. Have a purpose and calling. One which should be to prepare ourselves for the upcoming global challenges. So at minimum, you aren’t a burden to others and so you are in a better position to help others along too. There is literally no point in doing well if you can’t bring along others. 

Read More
Marvin Liao Marvin Liao

Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads September 3rd, 2023

“Just when the caterpillar thought the world was ending, he turned into a butterfly.” —Proverb

  1. "Last week, my parents were traveling through central Argentina- they informed me that everyone was begging for dollars, even for the smallest of transactions, at a rate of 530 pesos per dollar. 48hrs later, it soared to 600. On Wednesday, August 16th- the rate went parabolic, ripping to 770.

The dollar shortage grows. And Argentina, after decades of kicking the can, finally has to pay the piper, with QE Infinity here at last."

https://peruvianbull.substack.com/p/argentina-enters-the-endgame

2. "That said, building a business as an anon means you have the tabula rasa problem—you have no personal brand. No track record to rely on. You’re all “Work” and no “With Me” because there is no “Me.” At least not someone I can google around for references, results, and reviews.

So going anon as an entrepreneur is playing business on hard mode." 

https://bowtiedbull.io/p/guest-post-how-to-persuade-the-anon

3. "The whole world is heading toward negative population growth. Immigration can help specific countries (especially the U.S.) maintain their populations for a while at the expense of others, but as the whole world converts to small families, even that stopgap solution will become less feasible. 

This doesn’t mean that the human race will inevitably shrink to a small dying remnant of childless old people, huddling together for one last bit of companionship as nature or our AI descendants take over the planet. That scenario is science fiction, since it requires projecting very very far into the future. But the global fertility collapse will have big enough implications in the short term that it’s worth preparing for."

https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/humanity-is-going-to-shrink

4. This looks good. Rebel Moon!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_rHLOXbFZtI

5. More on Rebel Moon. I look forward to it in December. 

https://www.netflix.com/tudum/articles/rebel-moon-release-date-photos#

6. "The lesson here is not that the Ukrainians failed to achieve what the Americans might have hoped to achieve in similar circumstances but that it was unrealistic to expect them to try. Having tried the Ukrainians reverted to smaller-scale operations that they understood better and knew how to execute. The challenge now is to coordinate these more effectively so that there can be more concentration of force and fire.

This is why the decision to send F-16s to Ukraine is important. It will certainly not help with the current offensive as it is unlikely that they will be flying much before next summer. But for that very reason they signal understanding of the potential length of this war. That is also why it is essential to step up production of ammunition and other war material. If it is likely that fighting will continue well into the next year then that should be reflected in Ukrainian strategy.

Grumbles about slow progress should not lead to pressure to push harder than is feasible or prudent during the current offensive. The aim should be to get in as good a position as possible for the coming stages of the war and also to think about how best to sustain and develop capabilities for these stages. Whether Ukrainian forces do well or badly in the coming months it will still be essential to think long-term."

https://samf.substack.com/p/ukraines-offensive-is-it-failing

7. Good overview of the Ukrainian efforts to stave off barbarian Russia & recover their territory.

https://mickryan.substack.com/p/an-update-on-ukraines-campaigns

8. “Let’s be honest: experts have admitted the slowness of the West in providing new packages of equipment decreased Ukraine’s chances for success here. So it is not only about Ukraine’s deficiencies in combined arms capabilities – that point is universally emphasized. It is also about the speed of decisions made and their implementation.

Again, I do not like to play the blame game, but let’s be frank: the net result is a result of many decisions, not only those made in Ukraine. In that sense, Ukraine alone cannot be blamed. So for me, the situation remains relatively stable. Luckily, along with people ready to compromise with Russia at the expense of Ukrainian citizens and territory, there are others who recognize the problem lies in the Biden administration’s half-hearted approach guided primarily by escalation management considerations, not Ukraine’s interests.

My advice is: let’s get prepared for a long war. There have been editorials in major Western media, in Europe and North America, about the need to prepare for a long conflict, increase industrial capacity, etc. So I am not excessively pessimistic about Ukraine’s long-term chances. But again, preserving Ukrainians’ will to fight is paramount.”

https://mickryan.substack.com/p/an-update-on-ukraines-campaigns

9. "So, where does this go wrong? Where can one get tripped up? For founders, they need a strong opinion as to why whatever they produce with seed proceeds will matter for that end market. That juice needs to be worth the squeeze, and there’s an argument to be made that these types of initiatives represent true venture bets going forward.

And for investors, they will need patience. A product-first worldview to investing requires *a lot* of patience and shared context with the entrepreneur(s) because conventional signals (like revenue, customers, usage metrics) may not rear their heads for a while. 

Post a ZIRP-fueled funding bonanza, the irony of writing about how companies could and should raise more capital in 2023 is not lost on me. But to that point - perhaps the answer was “too much scale capital and not enough startup capital.”

https://aashay.substack.com/p/minimum-viable-raise

10. "Venture narrative whiplash is a phenomenon I am coining that birthed from the ever-evolving discourse on Twitter, and has transformed the venture capital landscape over the past decade more than any other phenomenon that I can identify.

True contrarian investing is an active decision to avoid venture narrative whiplash on a daily basis by focusing on underlying technical progress and consumer adoption."

https://jeffmorrisjr.substack.com/p/venture-narrative-whiplash

11. "Long story short, the American consumer is doing well—and, contrary to the popular narrative, that well-being extends to younger Americans. So if everyone is spending healthily, what are they spending on?

One of my most reliable frameworks for startup investing is a simple one: follow the money 💰 (Cue Jerry Maguire: “Show ME the MONEY!”) What are people spending their money on? What categories comprise a large portion of household spend, and as a result offer large markets for startups to build in? 

Looking at the breakdown of an average U.S. household’s expenditures, a few categories stand out: housing, transportation, food, finances, healthcare, entertainment, apparel."

https://digitalnative.substack.com/p/follow-the-money-categories-of-consumer

12. "The consequences of Putin’s determination to avoid loss have been heavy for Ukraine as well as Russia. A futile war has continued and will only stop when Putin, or a successor, recognizes the failure.

Because he lacks a convincing victory Putin has instead sought to coerce Ukraine into capitulation, first by attacking its critical infrastructure and now its grain exports. None of this has led to a more conciliatory attitude in Kyiv. If anything it has had the opposite effect. At most it may give Putin some malign comfort that Ukrainians are being harshly punished for refusing to join his dominion and an opportunity to remove a competitor in agricultural trade. He has spoken positively about how shortages allow Russian grain exporters to charge more."

https://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/20569

13. Title says it all. It's always a choice, reputation or money.

"Fresh off his wedding — a moment when you would hope someone would be imbued with a sense of wisdom and perspective — Palihapitiya is passing the buck, dismissing his role in convincing people to lose a bunch of money betting on the stocks that he was hawking. 

Chamath! that was the trade that you were engaged in. You swapped your reputation for SPAC sponsor fees. You should have done some diligence on what you were getting yourself into. How were you underwriting the damage to your reputation?"

https://www.newcomer.co/p/the-scam-in-the-arena

14. "For Putin killing Prigozhin shows to Russia and the world that no one messes with him - he has a track record of taking out anyone trying who he views as traitors, including Prigozhin but also Litvinenko and Skrypal. 

He would also conclude that, while the mutiny had shown his own weakness, that he is back. That said, the fact it took him nigh on two months to position himself to be able to take Prigozhin out does still show how weak his position was back in June."

https://timothyash.substack.com/p/prigozhin-how-obvious-was-that

15. "You should never let a VC off easy by letting them lazily paint a whole industry as a terrible place to invest. For everyone who’s ever said that travel sucks, music sucks, or e-commerce sucks there’s an Airbnb, Spotify, or Shein that has bucked the trend—and isn’t that what VCs are looking for? Outliers?

You just have to be knowledgeable enough about the space to be able to prove to them why your company will be that outlier—and frankly, most founders don’t know enough about their industry to understand how to explain all that."

https://www.thisisgoingtobebig.com/blog/2023/8/23/the-bs-list-we-dont-like-this-space-no-52

16. "Meanwhile, let’s understand that the economies in both Russia and China are imploding. The Blood and Billions that Ukraine has cost Russia are overwhelming the ability to produce GDP.

Meanwhile, back in Beijing, the economy is also imploding under the weight of massive debt.

Only a few days ago, the massive Evergrand filed for bankruptcy protection in the US courts.

What would happen to the world if Russia and or China just ceased to function? We’ve seen this before. Political upheavals are often accompanied by famines in both China and Russia.

Is now the time to consider a strategy for dealing with a failed state? Two failed states? Two very large, failed states? Yes. Maybe this is all just a rough patch, as some say. But what if we are wrong again?"

https://drpippa.substack.com/p/prigozhin-gone-xi-departed-covid

17. "Major US news outlets cite intelligence agencies opining that things are “grim” and that hopes are fading that Ukraine can reach its (supposed) objective of Melitopol, more than 50 miles away.

This is simply wrong. Intelligence analysts may look at the map of Southern Ukraine and see distances; military planners will apply the military math and see something very different. They know that to crush the Russian army and strangle the troops in frontline fortifications, they don’t need to advance 50 miles. 10 miles will do it.

Why? Because although it would be great if Ukrainian troops broke through to the shores of the Sea of Azov, they do not have to. Instead, they can achieve a significant operational outcome by bringing Russia’s ground line of communication (GLOC) under their guns."

https://cepa.org/article/ukraine-victory-is-closer-than-you-think/

18. BRICs Summit; basically a nothing burger. Not a threat to the USD dominion......for now or for a while.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7tG7hh-Vx2A

19. "You should always be checking what your organization is optimizing for. Don’t be surprised when your organization actually get’s a challenge and immediately folds. You filled your leadership with donkeys. This goes for businesses, government, militaries anything that requires a hierarchy of people."

https://bowtiedhitman.substack.com/p/are-you-breeding-competence-prigozhin

20. "Sometimes a winner take none market can emerge when a technology breakthrough just didn’t pan out, or there’s a dramatic change in customer needs/expectations.

But other times, and through the most recent cycle, it seems like some of the most dramatic ones were just blitzscaling aimed the wrong target. Narratives and spreadsheets which somehow would take low margin, high fixed cost businesses and transform them into technology companies."

https://medium.com/@hunterwalk/winners-take-none-coworking-self-storage-scooters-have-burned-billions-of-investor-dollars-and-94c6a1f50df6

21. "Yet, the fact that an increasing number of countries want to join BRICS cannot be ignored or taken lightly. BRICS’ refusing to participate in new global trade, proxy or actual wars may make such wars less likely. And BRICS’ economic clout may help reduce some of the glaring economic imbalances between the rich, middle-income, and poor nations across the world."

https://branko2f7.substack.com/p/brics-and-non-alignment-today

22. “Tokyo felt of the future, China had skipped the PC, India’s villages operated on SMS, & the Middle Eastern writing orientation - all of them opened my eyes to how the world may feel homogeneous from a PM’s Macbook Air in Mountain View, but was many users’ reality was richly nuanced - something I only understood in the field.

I’ve never forgotten the stark difference between my expectations of the way people use technology & the way they actually do. I’m grateful for that extraordinary experience with a wonderful group of people.

If you have a chance to visit your users or customers, leap for it. It will open your eyes."

https://tomtunguz.com/around-the-world-in-21-days/

23. "Kyiv launched the campaign in the hope of recapturing territory seized by Russia. But so far, any gains have been small and painfully fought for.

Now, several Russian military bloggers are painting a gloomy picture of the front line situation for Moscow’s forces in parts of the south." 

https://www.cnn.com/2023/08/25/europe/ukraine-offensive-robotyne-intl/index.html

24. "The outsized role the U.S. plays in the system exists primarily because of convenience, not hegemony; to see this, witness how the BRICS’ New Development Bank does most of its borrowing in dollars. It’s not because the U.S. makes them do it; it’s just easier. 

So anyway, every aspect of the threat that some in the Western press perceive from BRICS is essentially fake. More incisive commentators see that the organization is likely to become something like the SCO — an acronym looking for a purpose, coupled with a vague notion of geo-economic power that never quite coalesces into anything real."

https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/brics-is-fake

25. Trying to learn from the top VCs. This new series is pretty helpful. The thought process behind a firm’s strategy and org.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PdpcF7LnL6g&t=7s

26. "But there is an influential tide of founders on the rise that is opting out of this path and quietly plotting a new one that leads to building generational companies.

It’s a hybrid path, combining the growth of targeted venture funding with the durability found in bootstrapping (i.e. profitability). It’s a path with less venture capital and more self-reliance. 

And it’s the direct result of founders emerging from a tumultuous period of feast (with 5x more venture capital offered to startups over the past decade) and a brief flirtation with famine from the recent pullback that has left some venture-dependent companies in starvation mode. 

For many founders, a steady reliance on venture capital, as it is heavily prescribed today, is often seen as unhealthy, if not risky."

https://trohan.com/2023/08/20/raise-less-build-more/

27. "The one good story to come out of this desperate need to claim credit in Washington and London is that there is now a real awareness that the Ukrainians have a chance of significant success. Believe me, people would not be trying to desperately claim credit for Ukrainian strategy if intelligence reports were not showing that things were going well for Ukraine.

In a nutshell, there are signs that the Ukrainian strategy which they have been following fore more than two months (over the early criticisms by US/UK sources and the analytical community) is starting to work.

That strategy has been to concentrate on weakening Russian forces considerably, to create the conditions for a later Ukrainian advance. The Ukrainians realized Russian lines were too well defended in June, and they (not surprisingly) had no desire to suffer extreme losses battering themselves against those lines."

https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-43

28. "Today the topic is Longevity. Some of you may be nearing 40 (or past 40 already), and health becomes its own investment the older you get. No point in building net-worth if you are not around to enjoy it!"

https://bowtiedbull.io/p/moving-from-max-gains-to-max-life

29. There are many different ways to do VC well. This is a good case for a craftsman approach.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KX9D9bq-6qQ

30. Good life skills for young men.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GcTyo5ZvIgA

31. Finding the Limits of Innovation: Good overview.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fF4YTDsxcnc

32. Excellent NIA episode. Always a good conversation re: edge of the internet and cultural creative businesses.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PS2Zz7EDvnI

33. Felicis is one of the top VC funds. Outsiders turned insiders. Really good learnings for building a firm.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iMBc0DIwc24

Read More
Marvin Liao Marvin Liao

The Extreme Edge is Where the Magic Happens: Pain and Suffering is the Catalyst

I’ve learned a literal truth as I’ve gotten older and especially in light of the crazy last 3 years. 

It’s been especially challenging as all my preconceived views and beliefs have been overturned. Trust has been broken by the system, by governments, companies, institutions that have been proven to be untrustworthy or incompetent. 

Rules, people and friends who all have been broken. Many of us have been pushed to our mental and physical breaking points. All this pain and suffering and for what? 

Yet from Warhammer 40k, a remarkably deep sci-fi series, I’ve found an explanation. 

“Why do we suffer?

Suffering, pain, grief, they are all extremities of the human condition.”

Sadly, the extremities are where you learn about your true self. This is the point where you shrink or you rise to the challenge. Most people shrink, myself included. It’s like weightlifting: you build muscle by pushing it & tearing it so it gets rebuilt stronger. 

Our breaking points are where we have our deep breakthroughs of insight or realization. This is the case for startups and this is the case for people. Pain is the critical catalyst. As I’ve written before from the Bible: “He who gains knowledge, gains pain.” I’d say true knowledge can only come from pain. 

“We suffer because it is the sad but necessary consequence of our ability to prevail.”

Yet we run from pain and embrace comfort. And most people don’t push themselves or risk to even get close to this point. It’s like David Goggins says: we only use 40% of our true capacity. 

This is why those that truly live are those that truly risk. They push themselves beyond normal levels. This could be driven by ego, driven by pride and most likely by trauma & pain. But whatever the cause, those that go all out, are the only ones who can truly say they have lived the full human experience. 

Read More
Marvin Liao Marvin Liao

Revolution: World Turned Upside Down

Revolution was one of the best series to come out in the last 2 decades, it’s a show about life in post apocalyptic America. 

It is described as in Wikipedia: 

“The series is set in a post-apocalyptic near-future, in the year 2027. Fifteen years earlier, in the year 2012, a worldwide event known as "The Blackout" caused all electricity on Earth, ranging from computers and electronics to car and jet engines, to be disabled permanently. 

As a result, trains and cars stopped where they were, ships went dead in the water, and aircraft plummeted from the sky and crashed. In the years after the Blackout, people adapted to this new world without electricity. Because government and public order collapsed, several areas are ruled by militias and their generals.”

Not only was it a good drama, it was a survivalists and preppers dream. Looking back on it there were so many great lessons from it. Basically what do you do when the lights go out. What are you willing to do to protect your family? What are you willing to do to survive? Especially when your world is turned upside down. Do you step up? 

This is the core part of the show. Two US Marine Corp friends do step up and end up creating an empire called the Monroe Republic, that runs a big part of the eastern seaboard. Another major antagonist was formerly a mild mannered compassionate insurance adjuster who turns into a ruthless driven militia officer in order to ensure his family's safety. 

On the reverse side, one of the characters is a super rich Google executive who finds himself mal-adapted to the new survival of the fittest world. He is out of shape and pretty much useless. He relies on the charity and compassion of his friends. I don’t know about you but I certainly do not want to be that guy in this situation. I don’t care how rich you are, you are not a real man or truly free if you are not healthy, mentally fit and able to protect yourself and your family. 

I think a lot about this in the situation that the world is in right now. Up is becoming down, down is becoming up. So many underlying trends are arising. Massive incoming geo-political, technological and financial changes so many of us accustomed to tremendous prosperity and comfort are mal-adapted for the future. 

This is due to people’s laziness, blindness, ignorance, fear of change and maybe  an attitude of “better the devil we know than one we don’t” that they prefer to keep their heads down like an ostrich hoping that they will be okay. Hope is not a strategy and reality doesn’t care who or what you did before. 

So it’s important that you are macro aware but micro focused on getting ready. It’s going to be a rough ride where only the fittest survive like in “Revolutions”, albeit probably not as severe as it was in the show I am sure, but these next few years will be rough. However, out of great challenges come great opportunities. 

Read More
Marvin Liao Marvin Liao

Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads August 27th, 2023

“Good things come to people who wait, but better things come to those who go out and get them.” —Anonymous

  1. This is an excellent interview re: multipreneurship. Its a great path to explore for new entrepreneurs. Jesse is really sharp.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Plon_u6CyZg

2. Such a baller move.

"When Swift switched over to Republic Records in the fall of 2018, she negotiated to own the master rights to all the music she creates going forward. So by rerecording her old songbook with Republic Records, she will own the copyright to all of the new recordings. 

The move would give licensers the option to work directly with Swift and her team rather than go through Braun. And that, in turn, would allow Swift to reclaim some command over her music and how it’s used."

https://www.vox.com/culture/22278732/taylor-swift-re-recording-1989-speak-now-enchanted-mine-master-rights-scooter-braun

3. This was an educational discussion by some ex-US soldiers fighting in Ukraine. True heroes here.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mNjYWS8M6c4

4. One of the most interesting space startups around. Varda Space. Educational. Sci-fi becoming Sci-fact.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=maGE5dehsS0

5. "Now, I’m generally a major critic of election security, and I would still be shocked if Milei is actually allowed to become President (he wants to dismantle the Argentine government - literally cutting nearly every single department), but let’s see what happens.

Maybe, Argentina, which has been rocked by hyper inflation, controlled largely by Marxist radicals (Peronistas) for decades, and was one of the more totalitarian countries in Latin America during covid, is simply a reminder that it’s always darkest before dawn."

https://calvinfroedge.substack.com/p/a-big-moment-for-argentina-libertarian

6. This is a pretty good recap of the intriguing Capital Club. Lots of good tips and frameworks.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mfkn2ZkJ0xc

7. I wish I was this clued in on how money works when I was his age.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LqT4EhAbqiI

8. "The lessons from 2023, Silicon Valley's "year of failures" go beyond just business strategies or financial models. They emphasize persistence, genuine business relationships, and unwavering self-belief.

Today, as tech rebounds, learning from past mistakes can prevent future risks and transform failure into a launchpad for success."

https://jeffmorrisjr.substack.com/p/learning-from-failure-lessons-by

9. What a time to be alive and young.

"Hurley, the Texas high jumper, presents a crucial case study. Of the 25 college and high school athletes with NIL valuations of $1 million or more, according to On3.com, all except two—Hurley and LSU gymnast Olivia Dunne—play football or basketball, the two sports that drive athletic-department revenues. 

Like Dunne, Hurley has leveraged his enormous social media following into earnings that, he says, are approaching $1 million. Among the 25 most highly valued athletes, only Bronny James, LeBron’s son, and Dunne have more impressive social media metrics than Hurley (12.9 million followers for James, 11.4 million for Dunne, 5 million for Hurley).

Hurley’s creating a novel path toward college-sports riches. Influencer first and foremost, athlete second, with each job gilding the other. His story, however, also points to the shortcomings of a model that allows athletes to make money only through outside deals and may make people take a careful look at who is benefiting from NIL, who is not, and what still needs to change."

https://time.com/6284880/sam-hurley-track-and-field-tiktok-nil-texas/

10. "That so many have been purged reflects disobedience in the ranks expressed as a reluctance to go to war. The regime handed down a death sentence this year to former Air Force General Liu Yazhou due to his continued opposition to an invasion of Taiwan, and he is not alone. 

"The image that Xi Jinping is firmly in command of the Communist Party is belied by increasing evidence of instability in the ranks of China's military leadership," said Charles Burton of the Ottawa-based Macdonald-Laurier Institute. "The extraordinary purge of both the commander and political commissar of the Rocket Force suggests there is serious discontent within China's military with Xi Jinping."

Burton, a former Canadian diplomat posted in Beijing, points to Xi's failing domestic and foreign policies, especially the "cratering economy." "They have got some problems," said President Joe Biden about China earlier this month. "That's not good, because when bad folks have problems, they do bad things."

Bad things like starting wars."

https://www.newsweek.com/xi-jinping-preparing-china-war-opinion-1819587

11. Learned so much from this. Jack Butcher is pioneer of creative entrepreneurial life & personal holding companies.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GDS1R6QUxWE

12. I finally found out what that "crazy plane lady" meme was all about. 

Man, so many peoples brains were broken during the pandemic. I'd include myself in this. 

https://nypost.com/2023/08/09/tiffany-gomas-full-airplane-meltdown-revealed-in-new-video/

13. Lots of great thoughts here. Kale vs Cocaine phone. Also great breakdown on Arnold documentary & Barstool Sports deal. One of my weekly favorite shows.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nGOZ8YvqwRE&t=620s

14. This was a solid interview on living like a man on a mission. In his case, becoming a UFC fighter and having a family.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gDb9E25CXSk

15. "Lifetimes of work and risk lie between a Seed round and a Series D round. And, despite increasing the value of the underlying business 7x, the dollars at exit for the founder remain roughly the same. It is also worth noting that an exit at $210M would not even qualify as a home run for even the smallest fund in Sam’s examples.

There are many paths to managing dilution- be it raising fewer rounds at higher and higher valuations, or raising one round and scaling a business on revenue and profits generated from customers."

https://medium.com/strong-words/meaningful-exits-for-founders-4c3b2baba6b4

16. "What’s baffling is that the board would give such a delicate task to a person almost universally regarded as a jerk.

“David’s not likable,” says a longtime colleague — one of the more diplomatic comments I heard in talking to more than 30 of the CEO’s current and former executives, most of them partners. “He’s a prick,” says another. “Everybody thinks and says he’s a dick,” adds a third. 

“He’s a tough guy with a very short fuse”; “He dehumanizes you when he talks to you.”

Morale has sunk to the lowest level in recent memory, in tandem with a sense that the bank inspires less envy among its rivals and less esteem among its fee-paying clients and governments around the world. 

Some critics have suggested that perhaps Solomon was too distracted between DJ-ing and taking private planes to the Bahamas to kitesurf to see that Marcus had veered off course. But I think that narrative misses the point. Solomon is a workaholic, a CEO who never takes longer than three hours to respond to emails. It’s not that he wasn’t paying attention; it’s more likely that no one told him."

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/david-solomon-goldman-sachs-profile.html

17. "Most leaders make the same mistake I did. They jealously protect their other resources: their cash, their position in the market, and their social media presence. But they freely give away their most valuable asset: their time.

This may be just the right time to take careful account of your schedule. To what are you giving your time and attention?"

https://www.mattmunson.me/sanity-notes-017-time/

18. It’s a good time for startups with alot of cash on their balance sheet for sure.

https://tomtunguz.com/big-balance-sheet-as-an-advantage/

19. This was inevitable. De-globalization and why would you invest in your great power rival?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ovvQdCmnCLo

20. "Ultimately my job as a VC is selling a few simple products: cash, trusted reputation, and access to as much downstream capital as possible. And I can do that just as well as anyone who invests in only AI.

To be clear, the venture world is evolving fast, and specialist investors play a valuable role. But I urge my generalist friends to be proud." 

https://techcrunch.com/2023/08/18/why-generalist-investors-will-always-win/

21. This was one of the better discussions at the All in Podcast. Some important nuances about what’s happening in the economy & American society. Worth listening to.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dlzobkV_CgU

22. "My mind, body, spirit, and finances were the abilities I had to gain experience in.

I wanted to become multidimensionally jacked.

Maybe because I started questioning the default path early.

Maybe because I noticed how unhappy, overweight, and miserable people seemed.

Maybe because I observed how people limited their opportunities by taking a specific path in life.

It didn’t make sense to follow what most people do, because that would create a life that most people have, and that isn’t pretty.

The problem with the default path in life is specialization, compartmentalization, and niching down.

We are trained to focus on one dot, instead of the lines that connect the dots."

https://thedankoe.com/letters/the-cure-to-a-mediocre-life-become-multidimensionally-jacked/

23. "As an investor, there is value in recognizing the value of your life that’s been lived. You can become a better investor by seeking out the experiences that make you into a more well-rounded character. The pursuit of greatness is state of mind, not a one off accomplishment. It’s not about what you are, it’s about what you are becoming."

https://investing1012dot0.substack.com/p/back-to-the-grass

24. "Likewise, Schwarzenegger did not want to be typecast and play the same role over and over. The 1980s action star market got saturated quickly with Stallone and other ambitious actors (Dolph Lundgren, Chuck Norris, Jean-Claude Van Damme, Bruce Willis, Wesley Snipes).

Doing a comedy like Twins was a risk but there weren’t many muscle-bound actors trying the same pivot.

“Don’t go where it’s crowded,” says Schwarzenegger. “Go where it’s empty. Even though it’s harder to get there, that’s where you belong and where there’s less competition.”

https://www.readtrung.com/p/arnold-and-the-art-of-re-invention

25. "Generative AI can do some amazing things. There’s a reason why Silicon Valley is excited about it and so many people have tried it out. What remains to be seen is whether it can be more than a party trick, which, given its still-prevalent flaws, is probably all it should be for now."

https://www.vox.com/technology/2023/8/19/23837705/openai-chatgpt-microsoft-bing-google-generating-less-interest

26.  "But we’re seeing a radical shift in how founders and engineers view public service: that some of our greatest problems can be solved through building technology companies for America, whether it’s manufacturing drones to shore up the defense industrial base or building AI tutors to help elementary students learn math.

We see American Dynamism as an underrated big idea because so many young engineers are choosing to build startups that support the country, particularly after living through Covid-19 and now seeing war in Ukraine. We believe the next ten years of technological innovation will be very much focused on supporting the needs of America."

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/digital-future-daily/2023/08/18/5-questions-for-katherine-boyle-00111874

27. "We keep mediocre sales reps for way too long because we haven’t clearly defined and understood what the Mendoza Line for sales reps should be — we then potentially fire the wrong sales reps. Companies who spend more time on this will see significantly better results in the long term."

https://www.onlycfo.io/p/damage-from-mediocre-sales-reps

28. "I was struck by just how large and diverse the distressed asset opportunity of Latin America is. Whether it's high-yielding loans tied to major corporations or quirky niche assets such as Venezuelan debt, there are many sub-themes to be exploited. As stated at the outset of this series, distressed assets are not something that most private investors would be overly familiar with, and this lack of interest only further aides my point.

Latin America's economies and financial markets have matured to an extent, as seen by the much-improved balance sheets and leverage ratios mentioned above. However, the region hasn't matured to a degree where those dislocations won't occur anymore.

Many investors also continue to have misconceptions, such as that liquid bonds of major corporations are the best ways to get exposure, when actually there are even more interesting alternatives for those who have boots on the ground and highly specialised expertise."

https://www.undervalued-shares.com/weekly-dispatches/distressed-assets-part-3-the-unique-opportunity-of-latin-america/

29. "Now Cowart is in the big leagues, running a real refinery, screwing up hedging to piss away what would have been a Godsend of a quarter, failing to disclose said screw up in a timely enough manner, entering into egregious agreements with blood sucking banks and product marketers that put his company over a barrel, deciding to dilute himself (as the largest shareholder) to pay for mistakes and bad market timing, and having the whole world ask who is this idiot that doesn’t know how to run a refinery.

Gentlemen, on a scale of 0 being someone who has accomplished nothing at all in the past 20 years, and 100 being Bill Gates, Jeff Bezos, Warren Buffet, or Carlos Slim, Benjamin Cowart has to be ranking in the high 80s. Cut the man some slack.

Extreme success means sometimes taking loans at high interest rates, sometimes signing agreements with counter parties you know are screwing you, sometimes diluting the crap out of yourself to make sure you don’t go bankrupt later, and needing to hear the rest of the world call you an idiot. When Ben Cowart moved to Houston, I’ll bet you he was the only person in the world who believed in what he was doing - and on some days that’s probably true even now."

https://calvinfroedge.substack.com/p/empire-building-is-hard

30. "Because of China’s struggling economy, but also because of the risk of war and because of Xi Jinping’s increasingly authoritarian policies, Western investors are pulling money out of China. They are fleeing Chinese stocks and Chinese bonds. They are doing much less direct investment too. 

What are Western investors going to do with the money they get from selling down their Chinese assets? They’re going to invest it somewhere, and the most obvious place to do it would be in the U.S. and other rich countries — especially if people think interest rates are going to fall. In other words, the U.S. and other developed nations could become suddenly deluged by a flood of money that pushes up the prices of real estate and other assets — but, most importantly, real estate. Chinese capital might also find ways to flee the country, and property in developed countries is always a prime target for capital flight.

The combination of fleeing Western money, fleeing Chinese money, and interest rate cuts could put the property sector in developed countries on an upward trend. That could then spark a process of extrapolative expectations, in which a whole new generation of homebuyers and mortgage lenders become convinced that real estate is a great investment that always goes up.

If everyone has already forgotten the disaster of 2008, and throws caution to the winds, we could end up with another housing bubble in the U.S. or other rich nations. 

In other words, over the next two or three years, a Chinese slowdown will likely come as a breath of fresh air for Western economies beset by inflation."

https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/chinas-crash-is-unlikely-to-hurt

31. "In Israel, where Wiz was founded, such quasi-celebrity is no shock. Nearly a decade ago, Rappaport, Costica and two friends sold their security startup, Adallom, for $320 million to Microsoft, where Rappaport helped the company dethrone Google as Dun & Bradstreet’s “best place to work” in Israel.

But in just three years since leaving that job to get the band back together for another startup, he has emerged as a globally relevant tech player, too: the CEO of one of software’s buzziest unicorns, invited to rub shoulders with OpenAI’s Sam Altman at Sun Valley’s exclusive confab of moguls, attending Formula 1 races as a VIP guest of Amazon and skipping famed VC firm Sequoia’s CEO summit to hang backstage with the Chainsmokers in Las Vegas.

That part is all new for Rappaport, an introvert with the eating habits of a 5-year-old (no coffee, no vegetables, no spices) and few hobbies aside from walks with his red border collie, Mika, Wiz’s “chief dog officer” (who has 2,000 Linked­In followers), who keeps him company during late nights at the Tel Aviv office. But Rappaport’s the man of the hour because he’s catching two waves—the cloud and AI—with his security tools, and doing so faster than anyone."

https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexkonrad/2023/08/08/nobody-beats-wiz-meet-the-aggressive-10-billion-startup-shaking-up-cloud-security/

32. "A road not taken. An inauspicious start that might have led to a company shutting down before it found its way. A strategic reset that proved to be the right bet. They’re the kind of stories that get explored on Acquired—and they’re also the Acquired story.

Gilbert and Rosenthal are two millennial investors who met almost a decade ago and started a podcast in 2015 as a way to cement their friendship. Gilbert, who is a managing director of the early-stage venture fund of Pioneer Square Labs, acknowledges today that if Acquired had been a startup, it would have been shuttered after two years because of its slow growth.

Now the show has gotten so big that both Gilbert and Rosenthal, who was a professional VC for a decade and currently has a fund called Kindergarten Ventures, have gone from investors with a podcast to podcasters whose popularity creates a multitude of previously unimagined investing and business opportunities. The show’s audience has doubled year-over-year for eight straight years."

https://www.fastcompany.com/90927453/acquired-number-1-tech-podcast-sensation

33. Obsession to be the best. I always get motivated after listening to David Senra.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AP0XvV02INw&t=2426s

34. Very interesting list of "cool" by GQ.

https://www.gq.com/story/the-gq-hype-list-2023

35. "A new era of choice will result in a "great reshuffling" of people and economic activity. This reshuffling of people who practice a variety of professions will mimic the internet's impact on content creators: It will have two seemingly opposite effects — making some destinations more popular (and more populated and expensive) than any place ever was and increasing the number and diversity of viable destinations at which people can live and work."

https://www.drorpoleg.com/the-weird-future-of-work/

36. "I’ve discussed three important communications principles that I think politicians execute well, illustrated how you can see them every day if you’re looking, and shown how to apply them to the world of Silicon Valley marketing and communications. 

Those principles are:

-Demonstrate an understanding of the problem.  Don’t skip over this critical step in your rush to offer technical proof.

-Framing is everything. You can win deals by changing the customer’s view on what they should be buying.

-The power of consistency. Repetition works. Pick a standard set of messages and words, train your team on them, and enforce standard usage.  

Use my maxim to help: it’s better to be consistent than better."

https://kellblog.com/2023/08/20/three-marketing-lessons-from-the-political-realm/

37. "As our livelihoods shift further into this world, increasingly more parts of the machine economy will need to be built. Many investors have shifted towards AI for sheer novelty and attention momentum. My thesis is that fintech, Web3, and artificial intelligence are one economic whole, and that our ability to grow each relies on their deep synthesis."

https://www.coindesk.com/consensus-magazine/2023/08/16/the-machine-economy-and-the-convergence-of-web3-ai-and-fintech/

38. "From a more practical standpoint, the real issue with high valuations, large rounds, and the overall frenzy around early-stage startups, it’s that very often, entrepreneurs lose sight of what really matters.

They quickly lose the sense of humble beginnings, of the grind that comes from early rejection, of the extreme common sense that arises when people start with absolutely nothing.

It’s great to have leverage and raise with great conditions, to have early momentum and traction, but it’s a trap as much as it’s a gift.

Stay hungry, not foolish :)"

https://2lr.substack.com/p/yc

Read More