It’s Supposed to Be Hard: Life in Startup Land in 2024
It’s ugly out there. Looking at the layoffs and Carta data on startup shutdowns it does seem grim. Yet many founders remain naively optimistic, thinking “We just need to hang in there a little bit longer, and then things will get back to normal.”
Unfortunately for those tech workers and startup founders of the 2019-2021 vintage and of the Gen AI category in 2022-2023, what they went through is actually abnormal. The brutality of the market, this is what is normal and always has been in early stage startups.
We see a decline of growth stage rounds as tourist money from hedge funds disappear. We see a lower graduation rate of seed to series A from 25% of deals to 10% of deals. We now see the focus on metrics and capital efficiency. We see a regular stream of layoffs from bloated big tech and startups.
Like rich kids who develop expensive drug habits, they are now having to learn about reality the hard way now that the money is gone. Startups have always been hard. This has been lost in the ZIRP bubble environment. So many of my 2021 vintage investments have obscene burn rates.
There is no reason for a seed stage startup to have $150k usd or even $300k usd monthly cost structures. I should have caught some of these earlier and warned the portfolio back in Q1, 2022 and through most of last year as I learned from my own experiences in 1999-2000. Sadly very few paid heed to this and they are paying for it. We all lost some discipline.
And to sound even more like an angry old man, What added to this cost structure issue was the crappy work ethic that took hold in tech overall. The entitlement, bad habits, unrealistic expectations and pure laziness and unwillingness to put in the hours required. Endemic at the FAANGs but even in many startups. No surprise as we see founders waking up and gutting their staff to improve fitness.
The best companies always have an amazing work ethic. Even when I was at Yahoo! In the early 2000s we worked crazy hours, like 100+ a week because that was what was needed. I recall the parking lot being full at 730 am.
Thank goodness we are seeing companies like Traba (not a portfolio co sadly) and others demanding this high commitment. They even have 996 as a value, copied from the Chinese tech world of working 9 to 9, 6 days a week. In fact they started as 997.
Startups are damn hard and require this intensity to survive and thrive. If you are not willing to take that pay cut and work those hours then don’t work in startups. There are other companies and industries to work at. This is the reality like it or not and always has been.
We are seeing a back to the future moment in tech and I think this is a good thing. A focus on frugality, dedication and on grinding exceptionally hard to solve really hard problems using technology. Grit and endurance is everything. Hard things require intense hard work to bring them to life. Modern day alchemy.
This is why I am still bullish on Silicon Valley and tech. The tourists leave and the purists stay as the cycles turn. Thank goodness for this.
Before Living a Beautiful Life, You Need to Know What It Looks Like: Tools For Figuring it Out
I learned this term from Radigan Carter who is an ex-soldier, war vet, writer, investor and world traveler. I joined his online community called the Fortress and it’s been very rewarding and educational. He used this term “A beautiful Life” a lot and it’s been really helpful as I try to craft my own. Radigan says: “Having a mission, enjoying these hobbies with friends & family, and living overseas is my idea of a beautiful life”
One way to start figuring this out is to do the “Perfect Day” exercise which I described here: https://hardfork.substack.com/p/the-perfect-day-exercise. This helps you know what kind of day you aspire to, what brings you joy and are necessary for you to be at your best,
Another tool is the “Hobbies Matrix”, one Radigan credits to @MikeDMedicis. The Hobbies Matrix identifies the things you enjoy solo or in group, split by Indoor Activities and Outdoor ones in Spring/ Summer vs Autumn/Winter. I’ve put one together for myself as an example.
Once you have done these two exercises your goals become clearer. How you prioritize things in your life between career and family. What you say YES to. Or maybe more importantly the ones you say NO to. These include business and work opportunities, activities or hobbies or things you do as well as who you spend time with.
And no surprise it will be different for everyone, my beautiful life will be very different from yours. Add your vision board https://hardfork.substack.com/p/the-vision-board-exercise-a-tool which gives you a clear direction on where you want to go, it’s all the end goal of what you are building towards.
These are invaluable tools as you embark on your journey to your own personalized “Beautiful Life”. Just think about how amazing the world would be if everyone were able to discover this for themselves.
The sooner you start, the better life becomes. You will have to work pretty hard and overcome many challenges but having a clear direction makes things much easier.
If It’s Too Good to be True, It Probably Is: The Iron Law of Life
I would hate to be a single guy or girl during this age. I hear so many horror stories from friends. What you see is not what you get. You see this amazing picture of someone on Tinder. You look at their Instagram account and it portrays an amazing and interesting life. Yet when you meet them, from a shallow perspective, they look like nothing like the picture.
Catfished is a widely used term defined as “Catfishing is a deceptive activity in which a person creates a fictional persona or fake identity on a social networking service, usually targeting a specific victim.” Attracting someone with an attractive yet fake picture on the profile that has no semblance to reality.
Or if they do look like the profile picture, they live a life that is nowhere close to what they show. They are basically uninteresting. The likelihood of any chemistry or interest is very low.
The point of this is not to talk about how awful the dating world is, even though it really is. It reflects a hard lesson and what I call the Iron Law of Life. Nothing worthwhile is easy. Anything that looks easy is a scam. Anything that promises overnight success or wealth is a scam. Overnight success never happens because we don’t see all the decades or years of work that came before that laid the groundwork.
There are no shortcuts. I’ve said it before and I will say it again now. Have a goal, think long term, work with fellow long term thinking folks, do the hard work and be prepared to grind. Only then will you have a chance.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads February 4th, 2024
“Courage is never to let your actions be influenced by your fears.” — Arthur Koestler
Lots of important insights for running startups from a legend from Silicon Valley.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JKogHj2AFDI
2. This guy is a pro Russia A--hole so it's worth keeping in mind but it actually strangely also explains the weird behavior and fluctuating support coming from America to Ukraine.
"This is not to swing the pendulum too far to the other side and lay unrealistic claim to Russia being able to easily and instantly wipe out all of NATO—no, it’s simply to temper ideas about what US and NATO could realistically do to Russia. At the end of the day, a war between the two could very well be a stalemate but it would come at massive costs to the US/NATO, which is precisely the point that pro-UA supporters have made themselves blind to.
But the internal players—the CIA and policy makers—certainly understand this. Which is why they have openly made clear in the above article that a stringent set of ‘rules of the game’ have been laid out between the counterparties. Russia has obviously made it clear that it is willing to strike NATO assets that are assisting Ukraine if things are pushed too far. The US likewise now understands that Russia indisputably has the capability to do so. Thus they have shaken hands and agreed to limit the treading of each other’s red lines. Russia will allow the US certain clandestine operations within the purview of the gentleman’s agreement, and the US in turn will venture to keep its rabid dog on a short leash and within the narrow bounds of the playpen.
We’ve long known and suspected that such rules extend beyond just this, and could explain why, for instance, Russia has limited its strikes on Ukrainian rail infrastructure, bridges, etc. We’ve long known the West still receives critical supply deliveries from both Russia and China—particularly of precious metals, rare earths, etc.—by rail through Ukraine. This is simply realpolitik, and all wars in history have operated under more or less similar conventions."
https://simplicius76.substack.com/p/under-the-radar-major-cia-revelations
3. "Although the specific ratio has varied somewhat across venture history, when aggregated across each decade, the percent of investments required to generate 90% of the industry profits has remained within a relatively tight band between 17% to 23%."
https://medium.com/correlation-ventures/the-80-20-rule-for-u-s-venture-not-exactly-b25cc234fee2
4. These are super tough & skilled people. UA Special Operations Forces.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-UH5WSKoxlw
5. I have not binge watched a series in a long time. But this was shockingly good. "The Brothers Sun." Action, comedy & twists and turns. Also an amazing soundtrack. Highly recommend it.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oU8f8QrUCOM
6. This was so good. Worthwhile series to watch. Loved it.
7. "Bitcoin initially will decline sharply with the broader financial markets but will rebound before the Fed meeting. That is because Bitcoin is the only neutral reserve hard currency that is not a liability of the banking system and is traded globally. Bitcoin knows that the Fed ALWAYS responds with a liquidity injection when things get bad.
It might be called something new to confuse those who get their news from TikTok, but rest assured Bitcoin knows printed money in whatever guise is always printed money. Therefore Bitcoin will rise sharply before and into the Fed’s eventual capitulation to restarting money printer go brrr."
https://medium.com/@cryptohayes/signposts-693ba565cd3e
8. Sober times in Silicon Valley. 2024 will be a clean up year. Delusion is not a strategy.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ynVF2eRwZI&t=6s
9. "My advice to entrepreneurs, when they receive repeated advice on more material topics, is to question it. Peel back the layers, understand who is saying it and why they’re saying it. Do they have an agenda? What’s their personal experience been? Work hard to see if that aligns with the goals and dreams of your own company.
While most of the time, advice will likely resonate and be applicable, there’s a chance that serious recommendations, when critically examined, may not be good advice for your own business. Always question the repeated advice from experts."
https://davidcummings.org/2024/01/06/question-the-repeated-advice-from-experts/
10. "Now, Washington is trying to get back in business after three decades of post-Cold War belt-tightening that saw companies merge and production lines slow down. LaPlante said that the Pentagon has built a facility in Texas that has the capacity to surge 155 mm artillery shells as needed. Boeing is growing its capacity to build sensors for Patriot missiles at its Huntsville, Alabama, facility by nearly a third.
In Europe, Bulgaria and the Czech Republic are becoming major producers of ammunition. Germany is buying hundreds of millions of dollars worth of artillery shells while Rheinmetall sets up shop inside Ukraine. Sweden, Denmark, and Norway have begun jointly procuring 155 mm barrels for Ukraine. And the Swedish manufacturer Saab—which no longer makes cars—is producing so many diesel-electric submarine hulls that it’s even looking at Southeast Asia as potential clients.
Building industrial muscle means that the Pentagon needs to rebuild long-atrophied bureaucratic muscle, too. LaPlante has deputized a so-called “joint production cell” within the Pentagon, comprising defense officials who are visiting production floors. It’s not just a question of getting scientists and dollars, but also of getting factories full of skilled welders, assemblers, and foremen.
“It’s dusting off a lot of skills that we’ve had in this country that we haven’t used in a while,” LaPlante said."
11. "But the rise of Singapore provides compelling lessons of a different sort, ones which help us understand how the city-state was built in its unique conditions. Today, the new U.S.-China rivalry is playing out in the divergence between different development paths—a divergence which may end the mythos of a universally applicable model.
While Lee’s admirers in the art of statecraft cannot import a Singaporean model, they can learn from the ardent pragmatism which drove him to reject the easy solutions of outsiders and build a state which defied all conventions."
https://www.palladiummag.com/2020/08/13/the-true-story-of-lee-kuan-yews-singapore/
12. Contrarian and not a bit kooky. But you should also listen to smart people even if you don't agree with their politics. Some interesting thoughts on where the economy is going and the world at large.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EP1GnWJHbCA
13. "As monumental as he was, he is one of an infinite number who defined their generation and changed the world forever.
Every generation, in every region on earth, “has changed the world forever.”
https://jaymartin.substack.com/p/the-king-of-sicily
14. Important breakdown and dispelling myths and misinformation re: aid to Ukraine & how we do it. Net net: we need to do more.
https://www.bowtiedhitman.com/p/how-much-money-did-the-us-give-to
15. "Fernandes has written a book about Australia, But one can very easily replace Australia with countries such as the UK, France, Germany and even Japan to see that they occupy positions similar to that of Australia. UK is, thanks to its still far-flung empire, a “senior” subimperial power, while France and Germany are given the “proconsular” rights in respectively Françafrique and Eastern Europe.
One can even see the current conflict between Russia and “the collective West” as a conflict explained by American unwillingness to grant Russia similar “proconsular” rights over the former Soviet republics. And one can wonder how the current hierarchical system could accommodate China that certainly shows a strong desire to be an independent pole of influence and to dominate East Asia.
Finally, the current system has trouble including the rising non-European powers (India, Brazil, Nigeria, South Africa, Indonesia) that for historical and cultural reasons do not enjoy the level of affinity with the US equal to that of the present subimperial powers."
https://branko2f7.substack.com/p/powerful-but-within-the-orbit-of
16. I like reading these work style breakdowns. We all work at different tempos and styles, good to know what works for you. Somewhat anti-US but whatever.
https://2lr.substack.com/p/how-i-work
17. "Instead of driving radical, company-wide change overnight, you can run an experiment. Say you’re thinking of eliminating customer success, passing account management back to the sellers, and hiring regional renewals reps to run the renewals process.
Will that work for your company? Test it. Run an experiment along one of these dimensions:
-Geographic. Run the new model in Europe or Asia for two to four quarters to work out the bugs, see the reaction, and track the early results.
-Vertical. If you’re organized vertically, pick one of your major verticals and run the experiment there.
-Cross-section. Pick a set of accounts and run the experiment on those accounts only. To the extent the set is a representative slice of your customer base, this might provide the most meaningful result.
I know this probably runs counter to management’s desire to be seen as decisive, having all the answers, and leading dramatic change — but, given the stakes, the prudent path may be the best one."
18. "If a founder wants to keep going for another 2 years to try to get to $15M of revenue, the result for the investors in that $25M on $150M round will likely be the same ($150M exit, they get 1x their money back - excluding any additional financing needs).
But for the founder, it makes a huge difference. Let's say they own 20% of the company, that is the difference between the founder earning $30M and $0.
But the investors may prefer to just get their money back now because the chance they make meaningfully more is low enough and will take long enough that they think it's just not worth it to risk their principal investment.
This is another reason why high valuations are more likely to put companies in a bad position than a good one. If the round was done at $75M post, those same investors would be looking at a 2x, which is a big difference inside a fund."
https://alexoppenheimer.substack.com/p/thinking-about-writing-down-your
19. Somewhat grim but also realistic forecast for the rest of the decade.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FfqGAvq9gpA
20. I am a believer in this thesis. American Dynamism and how VC can help drive this.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GPncAyHAwPo
21. We all need a lot more of Goggins in our life. He is pretty hardcore. But this is what is needed in this new world. We need to tackle the hard.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nDLb8_wgX50&t=3792s
22. This was done 3 years ago but shockingly still relevant. Describes longer term trends in play that we see now, exacerbated by covid pandemic, Russian invasion of Ukraine and October 7th terrorist attacks in Israel. Unipolar to multipolar world.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7fkHtjm-JDU
23. Creator empire. Enjoyed this interview and it was a good view on what it takes to build an independent multipreneur business here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xGZg8IiDNSg
24. Good overview of the geopolitical mess right now in the Middle East.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UMyTZpDwTuY
25. "2023 was one of the worst years in the history of venture capital.
Funding was down 74.7% over a two year period.
IRR’s hit -16.8% at the end of 2022.
Limited Partners investing into funds plummeted 73% year over year.
38% of funds disappeared.
38%. That’s 2,725 funds that became inactive over the past 12 months.
Insane right?
This, the early-stage game, is a game of principles, math, and patience.
If you have the fundamentals and a long-term outlook, you can completely change the world."
https://mondaymorning.substack.com/p/the-early-stage-game
26. Lessons from the past of the Defense industry. What happened after the Cold War ended and why the American defense industry is such an anti-competitive mess right now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UAfl64c_6mQ
27. This will have massive impacts on global shipping and thus economies everywhere.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-k2CGHLwbBY
28. Slootman is one of the best CEOs in Silicon Valley. And toughness is back in vogue now.....finally.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fv5Bozsj2xM
29. This is a big change in VC land. What a start to 2024. Rabois leaves Founders Fund and returns to Khosla Ventures.
"In an interview, Rabois said he found Khosla’s culture a better fit. Khosla encourages lengthy weekly partner meetings with “unrestricted, unvarnished debate” and promotes hands-on involvement with portfolio companies, plus additional services for startups such as recruiting support, he said. Founders Fund is more “individualistic” and partners there have a “divergent set of styles,” he said.
“Founders Fund provides the capital and is happy to help when asked, which is very different from a mentorship model, which has been my forte,” Rabois said."
https://www.theinformation.com/articles/founders-funds-keith-rabois-to-return-to-khosla-ventures
30. Great discussion on building a personal holding company.
You Have to Pick a Side Eventually: The Case for the West
The world is splitting up into three major blocs. Global West is defined as the USA-led order which includes Canada, Japan, most of Europe, Australia. This is versus The Global East of China/Russia/Iran etc. and the Global South, made up of India, Africa, Southeast Asia, Latin America.
I’m pretty critical of what’s happening in the Global West in the recent few decades. The Global West has been the dominant power since 1945. We have all seen the rank stupidity, the gross incompetence and open grifting of our political class. Don’t get me started on the covid lockdowns, insane woke/DEI BS, the cultural wars and badly executed ESG energy policies aka virtue signaling that got Europe into the energy mess they are in.
For those who don’t pay attention to the news, Europe ditched nuclear energy to focus on natural gas from Russia a decade back. Fast forward to 2022, they are burning coal and wood and paying for far more expensive gas, where the average citizen is paying anywhere between 2-5x on energy costs of what they were paying a few years ago.
I understand the criticism of hypocrisy of the American led order. Just read “Gangsters of Capitalism” or “Confessions of An Economic Hitman” or look at the catastrophe and wake of the Iraq War 2 and Afghanistan. We espouse these incredible ideals yet we don’t follow or act on them consistently.
The Global West has done some awful things and is far from perfect. But all things being equal, I’d much rather live in a USA led order than one by China. You can talk about the USA restricting freedom, abusing its reserve currency status, randomly overthrowing governments around the globe or the USA being evil.
Yet what Russia has wrought in the war is pretty horrid. It goes beyond the terrible invasion of UKraine. The Russian-inflicted horrors in Syria, Chechnya, Georgia. Or ask any Eastern European outside of Serbia on whether they would want to be under their rule.
One also needs to look at China had done: what happened in Hong Kong in 2019 over the democratic movement crackdowns, the ongoing genocide in Tibet and Xingjiang, or the severe Covid lockdowns which were substantially worse than in anywhere else in the world.
Look at the implementation of social credit scores and lack of freedom of speech in the Global East (China/Russia etc). At least you can criticize the government in the West. Try doing that in China.
If the USA, Europe and Canada/Australia are so bad, why do the elites around the world send their kids and families to go to school and buy properties there.
If China or Russia are so much better, why aren’t immigrants from around the world barging down the door of these places? Well this is what is still happening in the USA. Most migrants still see the USA as the shining city on the hill.
Love it or leave it. That’s what I say. And for those libertarians out there, if you think you can hide in a world run by China/ Russia good luck with that! Go live in Dubai or Singapore or Switzerland. But your choices for top tier and world class places outside of the West goes down severely after these places.
You will have to pick a side eventually. So think carefully and act accordingly. No decision is a decision. Those who are unaligned and neutral will end up being hated by all sides as no one trusts a coward. Or maybe better said by Robert Greene: “Everyone admires the bold, no one honors the timid.”
No Risk, No Reward Too: We Need More Risk Takers
Mike Solana of Founders Fund is probably one of the best social and cultural critics of the media and silicon valley. He takes to task and calls out the stupidity & silliness you see in the world. But he is also one of the most insightful observers and rightfully celebrates the amazing accomplishments.
He wrote back in June 23rd:
"The solo climb, the Everest trek, the remote expedition — these are deadly, unnecessary risks. Why would anyone take them? Tabling the more obviously gruesome question of why we shouldn’t celebrate their deaths, why should we celebrate their accomplishments?
Here, I think we often miss the point. When it comes to the recreational adventurer, it’s true, few of these narrow victories matter. But that doesn’t make them meaningless for all the risk that they demand. The risk, itself, is the point.
We celebrate the risk taken for glory, for wealth, for curiosity, because watching YouTube videos of the Titanic from the safety of our covers is not the thing that makes us great. The quality that drives so small a subset of the global population to extreme risk is the quality responsible for many, if not most of the most important things we have ever built or discovered. That’s what makes us great. We are nothing without risk."
I ponder this often. Humans absolutely suck at risk management and shy away from risk. It’s wired into us. But everything great that happens in our lives comes from doing “risky” things. Asking a girl on a date. Starting or investing in a startup. Moving to a new country or city. Deciding on who we marry. It’s what makes our lives awesome or awful.
So the point: take more, smart risks. The world needs us to do so if we want to move forward as a society and civilization.
The Brothers Sun: A Look into Taiwanese Family life, Gangsters and Startups
I’m really glad to see more Asian American movies and tv shows. The “Brothers Sun” on Netflix is one of them. It’s about the Sun family, one half of the family, father and eldest brother living the gangster & assassin life in Taiwan and mother and youngest son, living the quiet middle class suburban life in LA. Michelle Yeoh stars as mom and there are many upcoming Asian-American actors like Justin Chien, Sam Song Li, Highdee Kuan, Alice Hewkin & Madison Hu. It’s a good mix of martial arts action and comedy. I do recommend it and believe it's a hit among Asian American circles. Cool Asian Americans are on the rise! :) The soundtrack was excellent and overall it was so much fun.
It was also insightful. The show captures the strange dynamic of Taiwanese families, especially immigrants to North America. How important ‘face’ is. The shame culture, the open direct criticism, the lack of emotion and love, the use of food and hospitality to show the actual love that exists. The asking without asking. The passive aggressiveness. And how tough moms are on their kids, especially the eldest ones. Plus the impossibly high expectations that come along with it. As said in the show: “The oldest always gets the most respect and the least love.” They are also good at pitting siblings against each other to drive improvement in performance. It works.
Chinese/Taiwanese culture can be strange to westerners and not a little bit cold or harsh. Which maybe explains how messed up I am and how warped my relationships are at home. There is a scene when the mother says to the eldest son: “I know you have sacrificed. So much of yourself. We do it because we have to. We do it so our family can survive.”
These are environments that end up with driven, ambitious, extremely unbalanced, hard, emotionally stunted individuals pushed forward by shame and anger. Probably a good diagnosis for myself and many other Asian-American/Canadians whether they admit it or not. The elder brother said something that kind of hit me and probably describes a big part of my twenties and thirties at least until I became a dad: “....if you want to survive in this life, all you can ever feel is anger or nothing at all.” I admit it’s extreme anger for me, simmering deep inside, all the time.
But the good thing about Chinese/Taiwanese culture is there is tradition and a code. The gangster assassin brother said: “Because in my line of work, traditions and respect are important. We’re surrounded by murderers and thieves. Without a code of conduct, there’s chaos. Chaos is bad for business.” Well said.
Anyways…..like everything, I also draw lessons for startup life and life in general. There is a scene in episode 1 when the youngest son’s best friend gives him some advice: “If you want to be a man and not a little boy, you’ve gotta be willing to make bad choices now and then.”
So many people are worried about making the wrong decision that they over analyze and go into analysis paralysis or just sit on it. Unfortunately it becomes, no decision and thus no action. This may not be fatal unless you are in a life threatening situation like an accident or war. But in early stage startups you have to be willing to make hard decisions without much data or with imperfect information.
If you want to make progress ironically you have to be willing to make mistakes and go in the wrong direction. This is what Chris Dixon calls the “Idea Maze.” Exploring the different and possible ways to the exit. Sometimes it’s by stumbling around. This is what throws off many people coming into the startup world and especially if you have only worked at a big company.
Of course, you need to be somewhat thoughtful especially for the BIG and potentially existential decisions but it’s very rare these come up. This is when you need to slow down a bit to come to a better decision.
But for all the other ones, there is no perfect decision. Actually it’s a whole series of decisions and consequent actions. No surprise the best companies have a quick tempo of decision making. And if they make the wrong decision, they are not shy about fixing it fast and recalibrating because it’s about survival. The more decisions and faster you go, the closer you get to the market truth. And to get there, to say it again you have to “be willing to make a bad choice and then.”
Or it’s like Improv, if you watch the series you will understand: “It’s like anything can happen at any moment. No roadmap or fixed endings. It’s….it’s just choices. I like the idea of something totally new created by very talented people who are risking everything to make this world a happier place. I also like that there’s a potential for total and life-altering humiliation.” Seems exactly like startups!
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads January 28th, 2024
“Courage is not the absence of fear but rather the assessment that something else is more important than fear.” — Franklin D. Roosevelt
I love everything about Personal Holding Cos. This is short but instructive.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aanIQr34sok
2. I'd totally do the same here. Always good to be prepared.
https://time.com/6551188/mark-zuckerberg-underground-bunker-hawaii-report-reaction/
3. India is pocket power and rising.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=41AEoEkgDm0
4. Total legend. Peter Fenton of Benchmark VC.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zepF9DChY_Y
5. Such a good interview. Alex Homozi really understands how to build a big business.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WK-d4H7xtvQ
6. I'm fascinated by the Personal Holding co model. I like Kallaway's plan and manifesto.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=33RYYHqU0OQ
7. "A few takeaways:
💡 What comes up may come down: If you're in AI or defense, 2023 was your year. But every hot segment has its ups and inevitable downs. A number of investors believe the hype will come down in 2024.
📉 Valuation Variances Converge: Different sectors faced varied valuations. Climate tech had premiums, while other areas might face adjustments. These should converge over time.
🔮 Stages had different outcomes. This should normalize. As I shared, "the growth stage remained quiet in 2023, with many structured and/or internal rounds that punted valuation downgrades to the future with more structured terms (e.g. liquidation preferences). I suspect the rubber will hit the road in 2024 and some of these will get adjusted."
https://99tech.alexlazarow.com/p/2024-predictions-best-books-of-the
8. I enjoyed this more than I thought it would be. Personal finance from Vivian Tu.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fUtDU0U7Zqw&t=17s
9. "Life is riddled with challenges, but success begins with taking responsibility. You have the power to shape your destiny. No one is coming to save you or do the tough tasks for you. They won’t get a job for you or start a business for you. It is all you in this game, make each moment count.
Acknowledge flaws, learn from mistakes, and eschew excuses. By taking responsibility, you gain the autonomy to make positive changes and pursue goals with intent."
https://medium.com/practice-in-public/how-to-be-in-the-top-1-in-2024-92266c1fe7ab
10. "So while the capital markets will likely be robust in 2024, I do not expect that venture capital investing and venture capital fund formation to grow that much year over year in 2024. I think both will grow but not nearly as fast as the sectors that surround VC.
To sum it all up, we are in a golden era of innovation with AI and Web3 leading to a new more intelligent, resilient and decentralized Internet and the emergence of a new energy stack which will power our lives new ways that will not continue to warm our planet. There are opportunities every which way I look to back founders and founding teams building these new technologies. I think 2024 is going to be a terrific year for tech."
https://avc.xyz/what-will-happen-in-2024
11. This is really too bad. Really liked what Jai and Countdown Capital were trying to do. Emerging vc fund managers are in tough spot these days.
https://techcrunch.com/2024/01/02/early-stage-hard-tech-firm-countdown-capital-shutting-down/
12. "Some romanticists feel the urge to knock over the edifice of industrial society intentionally, in order to kick against the seeming shallowness of modern life — to return humanity to a world of toil and struggle, in order to ennoble us. But these dark romantics are rightfully recognized in fiction and public discourse as villains.
The heroes of our stories are the people like David Ho — the ones who fought to hoist humanity up from the muck so that future generations to be a little more childlike, the ones who studied politics and war, so that our grandchildren may study statuary, tapestry, and porcelain.
Romanticists need to accept that the nobility of suffering has always been a coping mechanism — a way to sustain hope through the long twilight of apparent futility. And they need to accept that heroism is always inherently self-destroying — that saving the world requires that the world is worth having been saved.
And those who romanticize struggle and tragedy must at least try to understand that in the more general sense, happiness isn’t really shallow — it’s just complex in a different way. The passions of people raised in a kinder, gentler world may be alien and incomprehensible to the older generation, but they are no less intense, and the culture around them is no less complex. Adversity forces us to rise to its challenge, but abundance allows us to discover who we might become, and that is a different sort of adventure."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/toward-a-shallower-future
13. Hard core heroes in Ukraine.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ria_ryzIfo
14. Australia in the Post American world. Still well positioned.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8hSYixFjZWM
15. Fascinating discussion on one of my favorite countries in the world. Japan and its future.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GBR9hvY3ibg
16. "Through whatever means, we end up connecting with these founders on an opportunity that is adjacent to what they are currently pursuing. We share our homework on a market opportunity with them, introduce them to our network of “bridgers” (i.e. industry experts / leaders that partner with our firm) to further vet that opportunity and craft a plan for that team to validate the opportunity and achieve product market fit within the next 12 months.
These aren’t bridge rounds, which are primarily used to extend runway to achieve the milestones necessary for the next financing. These are complete pivots in the business. These are ones where the existing business likely isn’t working, but the founders have developed amazing insight on customers and the market. These companies are willing to leverage those earned customer insights and relationships to take one last BIG swing — burning their existing business to the ground to build something different, but perhaps exponentially better.
In many cases, existing investors aren’t willing to sign up for these types of rounds. The only data points they have on the company have been negative (i.e., the company isn’t working) and VCs generally want to concentrate their dollars behind their companies that are working the best, not a perceived losing hand. But make no mistake, this has been one of our most successful entry points.
In discussing this with Ed, he brilliantly coined these rounds as “Phoenix Rounds.”
https://medium.com/@EqualVentures/phoenix-rounds-11f2b35f1e30
17. "What struck me was how incredibly dumbstruck people often are once these events are discussed, even the smartest minds often roll their eyes in disbelief as they witness the increasing chaos around the globe. And it is not so much the conflicts and wars on their own, it is rather the realization that Western democracies are losing the plot and lack the leadership and resolve to direct and help structure the world in a way that we were used to.
Every discussion over Israel/Gaza, Ukraine and China ended with the painful awareness that the initiative now somehow rests with other powers and that we are diving into a deep hole of uncertainty. Reactive has taken the place of pro-active."
https://pieterdorsman.substack.com/p/a-rocky-start
18. "The United States and its European allies face a choice. They can either make an immediate plan to bolster the training they provide to the Ukrainian military, clarify to their publics and to Ukraine that the October 2024 deadline to liberate territory must be extended, and underwrite Ukraine’s materiel needs through 2025, or they can continue to falsely believe the war is in a stalemate, dithering and ceding the advantage to Russia.
This would be a terrible mistake: in addition to expanding its partnerships in Africa, Russia is strengthening its collaboration with China, Iran, and North Korea. And if a loss in Ukraine ends up demonstrating that the West cannot meet a single challenge to the world’s security architecture, its adversaries will hardly believe it can deal with multiple crises at once."
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/ukraine/war-ukraine-not-stalemate
19. Solid take on what’s happening in the consumer startup space.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Di_BM7tNbw
20. Such a fun episode this time. NIA.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EDv0MM4X0Oc
21. Timely conversation on state of SaaS & VC.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yzt_o-eD_0Q
22. Agree that it is the era of commodities. We have always been in resource wars but this will accelerate.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xry1_Pdi2yE
23. This is a grim view geopolitically out there.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Xt7H3CEIKds
24. Defense tech is critical for the geopolitical mess out there now. A very good conversation here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0UVYGpY2vd8
25. "It pays to be dangerous.
If you are weak, everyone will take advantage of you.
If you are dangerous, people will not f-ck with you.
Be big. Be strong. Learn to fight. Have money in the bank. Have a good lawyer. Most of all, don’t take shit and be willing to put up a fight. (Except meaningless ones like street fights)
If you are willing and able to fight, most of the time, no one will pick a fight with you. You won’t be worth the hassle."
https://lifemathmoney.com/fight-fire-with-fire-lesson-from-kaziranga-national-park/
26. "Incentives work powerfully well, perhaps in some cases a little too well. If you don’t inspect and supervise your sales practices carefully, you could find yourself unpleasantly surprised by some of the behaviors you end up incentivizing. If you establish and maintain an effective sales compliance regime, your incentive plans will drive healthy growth in your company. Fail to do so, however, and you will find undesirable behaviors growing as well."
https://sacks.substack.com/p/the-dark-side-of-sales
27. Such a grim but realistic view of 2024. It's going to be a mess geopolitically.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l46oWMu3b9M
28. These are always fun. I guess we will see. 2024 predictions.
https://www.profgalloway.com/2024-predictions/
29. I like this. Building a media empire. Erik knows what he is talking about.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iRpetYZhYmY
30. "With all that being said, the biggest thing I find I have to remind people is that the most important thing about being “non-consensus and right” is the part about being right. In the end, being right is what matters. That’s how you make money in venture capital, and that’s how you build your reputation and brand.
I tend to end most of my meetings with new managers by asking them a simple question that helps me understand how and why they think they will win over time. How are you differentiated from everyone else in the market, and how will you win the opportunities that you should win given your strategy?
I find it helps me better understand a new manager’s perspective on their own competitive advantage and strategy. The best managers I meet have a good story about why they are differentiated and good. I think that’s what helps you win today, more than being non-consensus and right."
https://chudson.substack.com/p/replacing-non-consensus-and-right
31. Lots to learn from Sahil Bloom.
32. So much wisdom here. Loved this conversation. Bill Perkins.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4NX9-Q-ohIY
33. This is why Benchmark is one of the best. Fascinating conversation on how the top investors think.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ugTUtpkhBDw
34. I always learn new stuff from Zeihan. A good geopolitics overview.
Building Businesses in New Frontiers: A Thirst for Adventure Abroad
I remember the great Star Trek tagline: “to go where no man has gone before”. That explains the great appeal of frontiers like space or the ocean or going to difficult unexplored places. It appeals to the young person who wants to explore new places and challenges.
That is why international business is so attractive to many of us. And why global investors have been so interesting to me personally. People like Richard & Christopher Chandler (Sovereign Global Fund), John Templeton, Jim Rogers, Mark Mobius, Bill Browder, Daniel K. Ludwig, Adolf Lundin, Marc Rich, John Kleinheinz, Swen Lorenz, and Robert Smith of “Riches among Ruins” fame.
To travel and do business in places that few people have been to. To learn about new cultures and find interesting unique business opportunities. And to invest before anyone else even knows of it.
Places like all of Eastern Europe right after the fall of the Soviet Union or China in the early 2000s to 2013. Or places in the present day like Saudi Arabia, Ukraine, Rwanda, Kenya, Vietnam, Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh or Uzbekistan. Or in our backyard, Mexico, Colombia and even Argentina.
Places with completely different cultures, no clear public safety (read crime), corruption, minimal rule of law and prosperity in some places and bad infrastructure but huge opportunities and economic growth.
But where else can you get to indulge your sense of adventure and also have a chance to make a lot of money. Or lose a lot of it. It’s the iron law of business, No risk, no return. High risk, high return. Something I really wish I took to heart earlier and only understood after deprogramming my middle class Asian immigrant brain.
One of my favorite new fiction books “The Siberia Job” by Josh Haven is based on the real life investing adventurers who went to Russia to buy up tenders of big Russian companies for cheap in what was the crazy & violent wild East during the 90s. Huge fortunes were made by those willing to take the risk of violence at worst or being cheated at least.
There is a great comment made once the two protagonists decide to embark on their business venture in Russia.
“Petr….let me ask you. When you were growing up , and you heard about those Old West mining towns in America, Gold Rush towns-did you think, man, I’m glad I wasn’t there, that sounds like it would have been dangerous?”
Or did you think, damn, I wish I’d been there with a six shooter and a cowboy hat and a goldmine.”
I wish I had approached opportunities with more confidence in myself and with a better sense of adventure as exemplified by the previous lines.
So for those with a sense of adventure and have a tolerance of risk, those who are looking to grow personally, professionally and financially at exponential levels, go to frontier markets. You will learn so much, meet so many interesting people and maybe even make a fortune. At worst, you will have a few new scars and lots of great stories!
Don’t Go to Davos: There is an Expiration Date for Everything
For those of us active on social media, it’s been incredible seeing the flurry of pictures and such all over social media bragging about being at Davos. Flexing. Yet it’s funny that it turns into a counter indicator. You think you are showing how connected and cool and awesome you are. All I see are a bunch of clueless “mids”. Davos used to be relevant prior to 2020 but so much has changed.
The WEF Davos event has gone the way of The Summit Series, SXSW, TED and Forbes 30 under 30 for tech people. Some would even argue Burning Man is one of these events that is past due. Super relevant and cool a long time ago. Now out of touch and soon to be buried in the past, taken over and inhabited by only the laggards and grifters. Or maybe just mainstream and thus not COOL or leading edge anymore.
Everything has a season. Everything has an expiration date. Countries. Companies. Even people. I saw a very relevant tweet from Dare Obasanjo:
“Startups tend to have 3 generations of employees
1. The 1st batch: A random mix of talented and mediocre people.
2. The pioneers: The nights and weekends crew who believe in the mission.
3. The settlers: The 9 to 5 crew who are attracted by the success the pioneers created.”
At the 3rd stage things start to go down fast. I saw this in Yahoo! The people who joined from 2009 onwards were pretty crap. You could argue Google started to go downhill 9 years ago and we are seeing the bloat really impact the business in 2020. Even formerly dominant VC funds prior to 2020 are now sucking wind badly.
What was a positive indicator before can quickly turn into a highly negative signal. The point of this is not to just bag on Davos and other Silicon Valley events and phenomena. The point I am making is that things change so quickly now, consumer behavior, cycles turn fast.
Jumping on trends is dangerous especially when it is at peak cool. The secret is doing something or joining something when it is not cool or known. Easier said than done. But the alpha is in doing something uncool which will become cool.
Tragedy Leads to Enlightenment: A Reminder That Life Is Short
I woke up last Saturday to incredibly sad news. A young startup friend of mine passed away.
He was brilliant, kind, driven and really just a good dude who leaves behind a wife and young son. I was playing our last in person conversation in my head. It was November last year, we were having coffee and carrot cake, talking for hours about his startup, family, geopolitics and life in general. Now he is gone. What a tragedy for the world.
I’m still in shock but it kind of woke me up psychologically. Sometimes it takes a big loss to make you realize important things. If I am honest, I realized I was sleepwalking through life these last 7 months. Dissociated and out of body. It was like I was watching myself go through the motions of living in a third party view, just like a video game. Putting off hard decisions. Pretending to be happy outside, when I was just feeling completely numb inside.
I think many of us walk through life this way. It’s easy to distract ourselves with social media, Netflix, bad food and alcohol. Unhappy with the state of our lives, careers and families but unwilling to do the work to fix it. It takes a painful wake up call to jar us out of this.
So for anyone out there, now is the time to fix this. Do the hard thing that is good for you. Get in shape. If you hate your job, get a new one. If you hate your city, move. If you want to be your own boss, this is a great time to start something new as a startup founder or creator. Life is short and a gift. Don’t waste it. Don’t waste your time. Take it all in.
RIP Gio, I will miss our conversations. I will pray for you and your family. Thanks for your friendship and for waking me up.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads January 21st, 2024
“Travel makes one modest. You see what a tiny place you occupy in the world.” -Gustav Flaubert
"What strange magic happens once we’re around family? We’re confronted with our past, we get a glimpse of our future, we dive into our deepest wells of conflicting emotions. Love, gratitude, and the desire to be seen, heard, and appreciated all co-exist with frustration, anger, sadness, shame. We start shifting between new and old identities, we slip back into roles and behaviors we thought we’d long abandoned. The ghosts of childhood wounds haunt the dinner table.
I think we trigger each by our very nature, not on purpose (ok, sometimes on purpose). Just like an insult only touches us if we spot a kernel of truth in it, family drama is intense because we see aspects of ourselves reflected in the other. Family ‘rubs your nose’ in the struggles of your life by showing you its iterations. If my mother struggles to let go of things, I see in this my own challenges, my own stacks of books, my own clutching and clasping.
Family is a mirror. Family throws a spotlight on what we’d rather avoid.
But here’s the kicker. If you do it right, family drama is a portal."
https://alchemy.substack.com/p/in-the-land-of-triggers-merry-christmas
2. This seems pretty right on. Israel tying up with Saudi and Turkey?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PYoOuJIj5qM
3. Hard times require hard advice. Vinod Khosla is one of the OGs of Silicon Valley.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hJZsiXQuOUA
3. "A common mistake is to think this applies only to the size of the work. That is, “Rocks” means “stuff that takes a few quarters,” “Pebbles” means “a few sprints,” and “Sand” means “less than a sprint.”
This misses the most important point of work-ordering: It’s about maximizing impact by not allowing the easy or urgent things to crowd out the strategic things that take years to unfold but are more important than everything else combined. A thousand “quick wins” do not create durable advantages or fulfill a long-term vision.
Another mistake is to think that the previous paragraph is the end of the story. “Schedule revenue-growth stuff, then maintenance updates, got it.” No. Each type of work requires different prioritization frameworks, has different goals, and hide different traps that make you unwittingly ineffective.
If you pretend these differences don’t exist, your team will be working hard and delivering lots of code-commits—the appearance of “productivity”—but they’ll feel like they’re not making progress fast enough, competition will start catching up, and they’ll (correctly) complain that they can’t see how their work is connected to the strategy.
The good news is: It does not take additional time to do it right. This is an instance of “smarter, not harder.” You just need the right frameworks."
https://longform.asmartbear.com/rocks-pebbles-sand
4. So much food for thought. Tai Lopez has some great insights on society, business and human psychology.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DEMHTDUXN2k&t=2123s
5. How to Build a thesis driven partnership firm. USV is one of the best VCs in the world.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FOHKojtF36A
6. "No matter how distressed Argentina’s situation has been throughout the years, there are always opportunities. The bond holdout debacle of the early 2000s is an example of one “vulture fund” that dared to buy up Argentina’s distressed debt. After a 15 year waiting game, payday came. This is the story of Elliott Management’s bond play that resulted in a return of historic proportions."
https://www.bowtiedmara.io/p/paul-singing-bonds-dont-cost-a-thing
7. Another reason why the Western elites are weak & stupid. (or maybe just corrupt)
Price caps don't work and all it does it forces trade to the fringes.
We should have opened up all the taps of oil, cut regulations instead of following badly thought thru ESG & degrowth environmental policies. This way we can use market forces to drive down costs of oil so we gut Russia's oil income.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Azm4yKKIlqE
8. An alternative view here on geopolitics. I don't agree with his views on Ukraine and Russia but he captures the heightened levels of economic and geopolitical risk going into 2024.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W0vAjbQ4VmM
9. Really great recap of NIA this year. So much fun this show & educational as well.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XQlzR-eCu-U&t=699s
10. Tim Ferriss is the uber influencer and OG. Lots of tips on how to be productive and how to be a consistent writer.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rXUuStdMeoE
11. "As I read the trial transcripts, redactions and all, I’m realizing that pharmaceutical marketing is the most bro-style shit-talking industry I’ve ever seen. This fact shouldn’t be a surprise, I mean, a standard tactic to push expensive pills was to hire former cheerleaders to flirt with dorks in white coats, such that ‘pharma girls’ actually became a gag on the sitcom How I Met Your Mother. And of course this is the industry where Martin Shkreli made his fortune.
But the story of IQVIA and how it is seeking to monopolize the space, explains so much about the twisted culture of corporate America. In this trial, executives were confronted with emails in which they used middle finger emojis towards rivals and talked about “blowing minds” in the industry. At one point, an executive texted a colleague at a rival firm, “Are we preparing a bag of cash right now?” with the response being “how big? 😉.” They then joked about how much money they would both make ‘integrating’ the two firms. Bro-ing down is fine at a tailgate, but when paired with a legal regime tolerant of consolidation, it means bros come to control the industry designed to help doctors learn which medicine to prescribe.
Ok, so what’s this case actually about, and why does it matter?
IQVIA has $14 billion a year in global revenue, which is a little over 2% of all pharmaceutical spending in America. It gets this revenue largely because it has the most important storehouse of medical data in the world, including information on nearly every medication prescribed to every patient in the U.S., the doctor who prescribed it, the pharmacy at which it was dispensed, the disease history of the patient, its pricing, and hundreds of other touch points.
Nearly every major pharmaceutical firm, and most governments, depend on IQVIA to understand how to develop, finance, track, and deploy medical treatments."
https://www.thebignewsletter.com/p/the-insufferable-bros-who-run-corporate
12. "Most people do not dwell on their mistakes. They prefer to think and talk mainly about their greatest triumphs.
However, the most successful few in any profession constantly examine and improve on their past performances, both winners and losers.
They know what worked, what did not, and how to improve the next time around.
Such is the case with the best PE and VC investors. The super successful, the masters of the business, succeed in large part because of their ability to learn from both their triumphs and disasters.
They remain students of their own histories and humble about what the future could bring - remarkable success or devastating failure."
https://privatequityguy.beehiiv.com/p/564m-revenue-8-people-hq
13. A good rundown of 2024 predictions from Silicon Valley.
https://nbt.substack.com/p/nextbigthing2024
14. "For Ukraine, the immediate future is one of several months of hard fighting without critical resources, while endeavouring to regenerate the combat power that was expended over 2023. But Europe can determine what the second half of 2024 and indeed 2025 will look like. This is a war that can be won.
The recent successful strike on the Russian landing ship Novocherkassk in harbour, protected by layers of Russian defences, shows how Ukraine can make effective use of the equipment that it is supplied with. But European security must not be squandered by more complacency."
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/dec/27/ukraine-russia-europe-support-kyiv
15. Samo Burma is a very wise man with a good perspective of history and the world.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0XX1kv--lB8&t=13s
16. Learning from the best. Peter Fenton of Benchmark. Fellow GenXer but 1000X way more successful. The art and science of VC.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XWEP6vUomi8
17. Another legend & OG in Silicon Valley. Investor and operator. I aspire to be more like Elad Gil.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y5uNsVOOi3M
18. "We are only in the opening chapters of this story, but I’m not sure it will get worse.
Even if we don’t change our response to these attacks, through persistence we can endure through what one would suspect is a limited Houthi inventory of useful weapons, especially if we can stop resupply from Iran. With a large dose of luck, we may get through with only an impact on economics and our own magazine depth.
There are two downsides even with this optimistic possible outcome.
--We’ve burned through an already thin inventory.
--We’ve established a precedence that anyone can take pot-shots at American warships without response.
The second worries me the most."
https://cdrsalamander.substack.com/p/barfights-winchester-indians-and
19. "Intellectual golden ages occur when new intellectual authority is achievable for those at the frontiers of knowledge. This feat of social engineering that legitimizes illegible but intellectually productive individuals is then upstream of material incentives, which is why a merely independently wealthy person cannot just throw money at any new scientific field or institution and expect it to grow in legitimacy. It ultimately rests on political authority.
The most powerful individuals in a society must lend their legitimacy to the most promising scientific minds and retract it only when they fail as scientists, rather than as political players. The society in which science can not just exist, but flourish, is one where powerful individuals can elevate people with crazy new ideas on a whim.
The dreams of automating scientific progress with vast and well-funded bureaucracies have evidently failed. This is because bureaucracies are only as dynamic as the live players who pilot them. Without a live player at the helm who is a powerful individual in control of the bureaucracy, the existing distribution of legitimacy is just frozen in place, and more funding works only to keep it more frozen rather than to drive scientific progress forward.
Powerful individuals will not always make the right bets on crazy new ideas and the crazy people who come up with them, but individuals have a chance to make the right bets, whereas bureaucracies can only pretend to make them. Outsourcing science to vast and well-funded bureaucracies then gives us the impression of intense work on the cutting edge of science, but without any of the substance.
The solution is not just to grant more funding and legitimacy to individual scientists rather than scientific bureaucracies, but to remind powerful individuals, and especially those with sovereign authority, that if they don’t grant this legitimacy, no one else will. Science lives or dies on personal endorsement by powerful patrons. Only the most powerful individuals in society can afford to endorse the right immature and speculative ideas, which is where all good ideas begin their life cycle."
https://letter.palladiummag.com/p/science-needs-sovereigns-44d
20. I always learn new things when these guys talk. Two very accomplished and interesting friends catching up.
My life is always better after listening and trying some of their tips and suggestions.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bYXa5RCGLiM
21. This article is meant as a critique. I think Silicon Valley is becoming this way because of a new level of competitiveness & toughness is required to overcome the immense change and pain coming.
“All of Silicon Valley reminds me of the first Top Gun movie: the abundance of testosterone, like 1970s, 1980s all over again,” said Manu Cornet, a cartoonist and software engineer who formerly worked at Twitter, now X. “It’s not even sarcastic or second degree.
“It’s a very jacked up movement,” said Glenn Kelman, the CEO of Redfin. “The people I know are thinking about testosterone and eating 500 grams of protein a day. They are ravenous, carnivorous, and totally yoked.”
But more recently, these same Silicon Valley companies have begun to look like the conventionally bloated behemoths at the pinnacle of corporate culture. Their leaders, too, have adopted a performance of masculinity that’s strikingly conventional and includes angry rhetoric, muscular physiques, and a newfound interest in physical combat.
The men responsible for building the products that touch the daily lives of billions of people display an increasing preoccupation with flaunting masculine bravado. It’s not just for show, either. The way these powerful men run their companies is impacting who is considered welcome in Silicon Valley.”
https://www.vox.com/technology/2023/12/27/24011198/bezos-zuckerberg-musk-buff-mma-masculine
22. Turkey is a dominant regional power. And will be even more powerful in post-American world.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fruhvf_OWA0
23. Timely conversation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GBeNRC_z3gw
24. "In sum, these wars over networked tribal alignment will accelerate our inability to make decisions at every level of society and governance. Facts will not be considered facts by many people unless they fit their tribal alignment, and any facts presented by people in opposing tribes will immediately be seen as attacks (like Rufo’s plagiarism charge). Attacks that will be immediately rejected or ignored. Worse, many networks will manufacture facts (for example, fake hate crimes) to advance towards the goal.
In the end, these conflicts will achieve the demoralization of the US that the Soviet KGB info warrior Yuri Bezmenov hoped to accomplish during the Cold War."
https://johnrobb.substack.com/p/aligning-the-ivy-league
25. An insight dense conversation for tech founders and investors. Worth watching.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nfWYN4DsVJo
26. How to be more thoughtful about your life. Die with Zero. Recommend the book as well.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-8TTW957qDQ
27. This is a great conversation between two super smart people. Two of the world's most interesting people: Matt Mullenweig & Tim Ferriss.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pWpaCLIUnXo
28. "But soft power is not a zero-sum game. It can't be applied coercively, as hard power in the form of diplomatic, economic, or military force can be. The difference between soft and hard power is the difference between sending rockets into a rival nation's borders versus sending BTS rocketing up their pop charts. I suppose that purchasing one band’s song or merch might come at the expense of another, in the cold, hard math of consumer spending.
But in practice, things don’t work that way: loving Bong Joon-ho’s films doesn’t preclude one from loving Hirokazu Kore-eda’s. Reading Japanese manga doesn’t preclude enjoying Korean webtoons. Our budgets may be limited, but our ability to like things is as bottomless as our hunger for stimulation and novelty. So I've always taken reports of one nation's pop-cultural rise coming at the expense of another's with a big grain of salt. You should too.
There is perhaps no better example of this than what happened to Japan over the course of 2023. All but written off at the beginning of the 2020s, it re-emerged as a pop-cultural powerhouse over the course of just one post-pandemic (he said hopefully) year.
At one point earlier this month, films from Japan occupied two of the three top spots on the American box-office charts -- Hayao Miyazaki's The Boy and the Heron at number one, and Takashi Yamazaki's Godzilla Minus One at number three. Putting aside my personal feelings about Miyazaki's and Yamazaki's films, this is seriously impressive stuff."
https://blog.pureinventionbook.com/p/2023-the-year-japans-sun-rose-again
29. This is quite interesting. Dallas becoming a major financial center.
https://www.linkedin.com/news/story/major-banks-descend-on-dallas-5855684/
30. "As an entrepreneur, it’s essential not to get too caught up in the potential exit. The focus should be on enjoying the journey and continuing to build a great business. In 2011, we had one of our first serious opportunities to consider selling, but we chose to stay the course, and were better off for it."
https://davidcummings.org/2023/12/30/the-first-serious-acquisition-conversation/
31. A conversation on money. FIWOOT over FIRE. Financially Independent & Work On Own Terms.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8TJndZbjxP4
32. "Private-sector groups are exempt from the bureaucratic red tape that surrounds aid delivered through official government channels. Government aid can take months to approve and even longer to deliver. But private-sector channels are able to deliver assistance within days. Many of these entities already have well-established relationships with military officials, diplomats, and others on the ground in Ukraine, which allows for timely and accurate updates from the frontlines. Information detailing the most critical needs can be relayed instantly, and tailored aid can quickly be delivered where needed.
Success in Ukraine is both a victory for Ukrainians and for strategic American interests. Our economic prosperity is directly linked to the European region, and the greatest threats to our national security are Russia and China. China is watching this war unfold, and if Russia comes out victorious, there is no doubt China will follow with its own acts of aggression. The consequences of this war will have a domino effect, and I can only hope that Americans — both within the government and private citizens — will help ensure that dominos are falling in our favor.
Russia will continue to exploit its support from our adversaries with drones from Iran and long-range missiles from North Korea. As long as this continues, we must respond with support for our friends in Ukraine. Ukraine remains resolute in its efforts to win this war, and to gamble otherwise is a mistake."
33. "Weaver, the founder and managing partner of Alpine Investors, has built a private equity empire with an emphasis on personal growth, an unusual topic in the world of cutthroat investing.
He credits the self-help genre for teaching him many of the techniques he has applied to his personal and professional lives.
Graham believes in self-improvement so much that he has built a personal brand at the intersection of entrepreneurship, investing, and self-help. His TikTok account has amassed nearly 1 million followers."
https://www.readtheprofile.com/p/the-profile-interview-meet-the-private
34. "Peterffy created Interactive Brokers in 1993 as a way to sell his firm's electronic trading capabilities to the public. In 2007, he sold 10% of Interactive's shares in a public offering, pocketing about $1 billion. Over the last 15 years, as high-frequency traders took over Interactive’s market making operations, Peterffy doubled down on growing the brokerage business, which today serves over 2.4 million customer accounts, including hedge funds and trading shops.
He owns about 75% of Interactive Brokers, which has a market capitalization of over $33 billion, making Peterffy one of the 25 wealthiest Americans with an estimated $26.2 billion fortune. He also holds an estimated $3 billion in investments and cash, as well as over 560,000 acres of land, primarily in Florida where he moved in 2014.
What I'm looking out for is where socialism may be coming next, and I think America is one of those places. So then I say to myself, “I don't want to be fully invested in the United States, where else should I be where there is some hope for private enterprise surviving?” I look at New Zealand, Australia, Canada, England, South America, and places like Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. I'm not saying those places are better than here now, but things could be changing. The U.S. could be becoming more of a collectivist society. So where else is there a chance that capitalism will survive?
I basically think there are no important secrets in how to invest, and there is not a lot you can learn from others. It's all logical. The better you know the facts, and the more facts you know, the better you do as an investor. What I have learned through the many years I spent in these businesses is, there is no substitute for doing your own work."
https://archive.ph/4Js57#selection-519.0-519.803
35. "Fast forward to 2023, and a similar rush is unfolding, not for gold, but for AI technologies. The release of ChatGPT by OpenAI has sparked a modern-day Gold Rush in Silicon Valley, drawing in investors, engineers, and entrepreneurs, all chasing the dream of Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). This AI Rush, though more structured and organized than its 1848 counterpart, shares many parallels, particularly in the way opportunities are seized and value is created and captured.
One key question emerges: In this new era of technological prospecting, who will be the James Marshall, Samuel Brannan, Levi Strauss, or George Hearst of AI? As we navigate this modern Gold Rush, the lessons from 1848 remain ever-relevant, reminding us that in times of great opportunity, the most significant rewards often lie in understanding and adapting to the needs of the era."
https://fellowsfund.substack.com/p/1848-vs-2023-gold-rush-vs-ai-rush
36. A grim view of the economic future. Jim Rogers is an investing legend.
The Unsexy but Critical: Business Operations
I remember when I first volunteered to take on international Sales operations projects when I was a few years into my career at Yahoo!, how many questions I got from my colleagues.
I was moving from doing the sexy stuff of international marketing. The glitz and glamor of ad agencies, advertising and new product rollouts to the basic grind and dirty. I remember many of my colleagues being confused and being counseled that it was a career mistake.
They were wrong. Besides being an orthogonal career move to work on an area critical to the company, it was also a great crash course on the fundamentals of business. Operations are all the hidden details that “allow the trains to run on time.”
It’s the basics of systems, processes and people that deliver our product and services. It’s the core of business. It’s the gritty details and requires amazing project management. It’s a codified way of doing stuff and how we deliver against what is being sold and promised by sales. It was for me personally a great education and step to leading sales teams later in my career. I never sold anything I couldn’t deliver on and this has served me well for the rest of my career.
I’d heard of a saying “How we do anything is how we do everything.” And this is certainly true in business operations. I always use the analogy of putting on a big event or party. Operations are in the background and if all goes well, nobody really notices. But if you screw up, people definitely see it. I think that’s why so many shy away from this part of business. It’s unsexy yet critical.
This is what differentiates the best executives, founders and operators from the rest. They are strategic but don’t shy away from getting their hands dirty in operational details to find out what’s going wrong and what can be optimized.
So my point for anyone looking for a great career, go into operations. It’s a great way to learn business at its fundamental underpinnings. It’s not sexy. But maybe because of that, it’s not as competitive. And you may end up being invaluable to your company. Couple this with sales and marketing skills and you will become an unstoppable founder and business person. Delivering on what you say you will do puts you ahead of 90% of people out there.
If You Worry, You Shouldn’t Be Worried; If You aren’t worrying, You Should Be Worried
I heard the famous hedge funder and author Ray Dalio say this. In regards to his rise and fall of great geopolitical powers like the Chinese, the Dutch, the British and now the Americans. Net net: when you worry that means you aren’t complacent and are actively trying to get better. I hope this is the case with America.
But that comment is also very relevant to individuals as well. I am naturally an anxious person. Combining that incredible greed and materialism, fear of poverty, massive insecurity and being blessed with good health and impostor syndrome, has led me to become a detail oriented workaholic. Which has also led me to become a pretty buttoned-down business operator.
As I’ve been working with a therapist for the last 3 years in pursuit of understanding myself and hopefully to aim for a more balanced life. I have come to realize I’m not sure that is even possible for someone like me. I’m so wired to work and put material things first, that short of major shock or drug therapy, I just don’t see myself changing very much here.
Nor do I really want to change this aspect too much if I am honest. It got me here to this point, and it’s what will get me to the next major milestone. My anxiety and rage keeps me young. My paranoia feeds my action. My intense curiosity feeds my learning.
This is one of the reasons that I think I won’t become like so many long time & older denizens of Silicon Valley. Wildly successful and wealthy but are largely irrelevant.
I want to be both successful and relevant. I will stay in this game as long as I can and I have every intention of doing what I do till the end of my days. Learning the craft of business all the time. Finding, investing and working with amazing startup founders all around the world. Winning the game is being in the game. To do that you have to be a bit paranoid. Paranoia will keep you on your toes and alive.
Celebrate Your Wins: The Key to Good Morale and Happiness
I think I was a pretty effective operating executive when I was at Yahoo! But I admit that I ran my team and the business hard. While we hit our aggressive numbers, despite it being satisfying, it was also in retrospect probably mechanical and joyless. We didn’t celebrate our wins. We just went onto the next quarter and the next goal.
This is pretty much how most type A individuals live their lives and run their teams. Get the win and then move onto the next thing. This becomes an endless death march, especially for teams. They get burned out.
I learned to do things better when I was at 500 Startups and my SF-based team lived the motto “Have Fun, Get Sh-t Done” and for the first 4-5 years it really worked out well. I’d like to think we accomplished a lot but also enjoyed the process along the way.
The lesson I take from this is that you need to celebrate the small wins, both personally and for your team. They are important touch-points and great moments to slowdown and reflect on what you accomplished. It’s a good rite to celebrate. Then you have proper closure to jump into the next big thing.
And hopefully enjoy the journey a lot more too. As the cliche goes, the journey is everything. This seems to be a much more sustainable way to work. Treat your life like a fun marathon and not a painful sprint.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads January 14th, 2024
“One part at a time, one day at a time, we can accomplish any goal we set for ourselves.” — Karen Casey
"With all these details working in its favor, it’s possible that El Segundo’s hardware scene was always inevitable. But my sense is SpaceX demonstrating what was possible, amidst all that space and talent, was like a lightning strike in the dry, California foothills. And that fire has been burning now for years.
Today there’s Anduril, an hour south, and more recently Varda, Radiant Nuclear, Impulse Space, Hadrian, Freeform Future, Senra and HGen — just a handful of the local companies Founders Fund has invested in since SpaceX. The Boring Company and Panthalassa both started off in LA.
Peeking out of corners all over town, a few minutes’ drive from point to point, robotic pizza trucks weave among electric drivetrains, automated casting foundries, small launch vehicles, rocket engines for carbon sequestration, cloud-seeding drones, and containerized nukes built in a glorified garage.
Even just in recent memory we’ve seen hype cycles fully play out, from social media and SaaS to AI and (a few times now) crypto. There was and remains exciting promise in all of these spaces, but too much hype means too many speculative investors and too much capital, which leads to more companies than can be sustained by the talent pool or customer base. In a dynamic like this, reality tends to fall short of expectations, pain follows, and important work can die. I don’t want this for Gundo, because, frankly, this is the only place this work is being done, and nowhere else for people building here to go.
Fortunately, there is a silver lining. Hardware doesn’t work like social media, where the winner takes all and colocation becomes memetic. A hardware ecosystem’s geographic network effects are positive sum. In other words, if hype inspires new companies who draw talent and enhance local capabilities — in addition to drawing capital and generating great tweets — then it can still work in our favor."
https://www.piratewires.com/p/thank-god-for-el-segundo
2. Lots of lessons from history and human civilization goes back further than we think. LONG History.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZHYYo__Pkg0
3. "So what? Well, the Series A investors of 10–15 years ago operated very differently than most of the angel/seed investors of the last decade. With the rare exception, these Series A firms rarely shared deals with each other, because they wanted to maximize their ownership / dollars into the best deals (after all, they were taking board seats, so they were bandwidth constrained). They also ran more concentrated portfolios (never have I heard of a Series A firm with 40–50 companies). Alternatively, the predominant seed model of the last decade has been collaborative, high velocity and high diversification.
I didn’t make the rules, but I’m doing my best to play the game on the field and it seems pretty clear that Seed is becoming the new Series A. That isn’t to say that there aren’t new/different ways to win (I’m confident there are), but we need to be aware of these dynamics and recognize the pressure that this evolution creates on how we’ve historically invested and the skills required to be successful.
For Equal, that means operating more like the “Original Series A” investors than “Micro VCs.” We think this better fits our style as a firm and are embracing the market’s rotation toward this style of investing at Seed. There are pros and cons to all strategies, but being authentic to your team’s abilities is the strategy that will position you best for success."
https://medium.com/@EqualVentures/seed-is-the-new-series-a-06a6b9d00ecc
4. Another educational episode with the boys. Lessons from the edge of the internet.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wl1TO5hLUzE
5. Germany rising again?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=80s5vIrlpAo
6. Worthwhile conversation on how to thrive in our modern world.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GOEsojRfo-w&t=1468s
7. The epitome of Asymmetric warfare.......
https://www.politico.com/news/2023/12/19/missile-drone-pentagon-houthi-attacks-iran-00132480
8. This is why the American defense industrial base is a mess. It stems from policy in 1993.
"The policy of driving companies out of business, I wouldn't even say that was a policy. The policy was to streamline the defense industry so it didn't have a lot of overhead. And I also saw many of these companies had capabilities that the government wanted to maintain.
But in the next three years, we saw our industry lose 40% of its employees to the aerospace industry, and nearly 70% of the companies were basically absorbed and other companies were combined together to be more efficient. And it saved the government a great deal of money. The problem was it reduced the size of the industrial base, should we need one in the future."
9. There is so much here. The future is bright. Mindset matters and technology will help us expand our health span. Really worth watching.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OSV7cxma6_s
10. "2024 will have the highest number of national elections since the mind virus of the “nation-state” infected our collective consciousness a few hundred years ago. Any politician who wants to get re-elected needs to give goodies to the people. For the rich asset holders, give them loose financial conditions by encouraging central banks to print money.
For the poor, give them handouts to cover the rising cost of food and energy, which is a direct result of policies that favour the asset-rich. For the middle class, give them “democracy,” tell them to pay their taxes, bend over, and be glad they got a vote. With this in mind, it makes no sense for a politician seeking re-election to stop the fiat debasement party. The votes from those who benefit from fiat debasement and inflation-linked handouts will outweigh the votes from those who suffer. As a result, money printing will surge in every “democracy” globally in 2024.
Crypto represents a movement to separate money and finance from the state. Using computers, the internet, and most importantly, cryptographic proofs, we the people have created the hardest money ever known, Bitcoin; and we created an entirely new decentralised financial system (DeFi) that is powered by public blockchain networks such as Ethereum … there are others, but they are all dogshit so I won’t mention them ;).
This new crypto financial system depends on maths and grassroots support from unsatisfied humans and not the violent coercion of the state and its banking minions. As capital, which is simply energy transformed, is looking for a safe home free from debasement, it is trickling into the crypto space.
But crypto’s market cap in fiat terms is minuscule compared with the total value of all fiat financial assets. That is why a modest amount of capital fleeing the collapse of the fiat financial system can create such outsized gains in such a short time frame."
https://cryptohayes.substack.com/p/expression
11. "As we saw in the last section, U.S. steelmakers boosted their productivity quite a lot in the 1990s and early 2000s, and the result was a steel export boom in the late 2000s and 2010s. It thus seems unlikely that the U.S. steel industry was so dysfunctional over the last three decades that it literally caused U.S. stagnation and deindustrialization.
A far more likely story is that the U.S. simply stopped using a lot of steel, so we stopped making a lot of steel.
That doesn’t mean this was a good thing — NIMBYism has been a disaster for the U.S., and I think deindustrialization has been a net negative as well. But what it does mean is that we should stop thinking about steel as something that’s desirable in and of itself, and start thinking of it primarily as an input into things like buildings, cars, and machines. Instead of throwing up steel tariffs like Trump did, or trying to protect the ghost of U.S. Steel from Japanese buyers like Fetterman is doing, we should be trying to boost the industries that use steel. And not so we can save some steelmaking jobs, but so we can have the stuff that those industries produce.
We should be trying to promote new construction of housing and solar plants. We should be making it easier to build factories, trains, and highways. We should be subsidizing consumer demand in order to speed the transition to electric vehicles and other green technologies. And we should probably be trying to rebuild our machine tool industry, in order to reduce the risk of excessive reliance on China.
And if we do those things, I predict that we’ll see a revival of the American steel industry as well."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/why-the-us-steel-industry-is-dying
12. This was always a good list of predictions for 2024 and love their takes on the big news in the tech industry.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ay_qYRzcbk&t=980s
13. Not for me but Dubai is definitely winning and well set up for the future.
https://medium.com/@loukerner/why-im-moving-to-dubai-d32a5e54a936
14. This is worth paying attention to. History as a lesson.
Also makes me not want to send my kid to university because of the stupid radical leftist ideas being taught there.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dtN7Z20ga6Y
15. Good overview of the state of the AI and tech world.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ynrvsCYNB2Y
16. Huge fan of Sahil Bloom. This is a great view into how he thinks and writes.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f-s22uCixMw
17. A solid interview with my friend Harry. Building a media and VC investing empire.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W9WV8uyCyhg
18. I've definitely become a Lessin acolyte. He has so many smart things to say and is a great investor and observer of Silicon Valley.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_w-VYUDJRrQ
19. "In a way they are the triumvirate of macroeconomic trends that rule the world. One creates a new wave,the other runs that wave through its natural lifecycle, and the third destroys and takes us back to creation. As these 50–100 year macroeconomic cycles are playing out, there is an innovation cycle that operates underneath it, subservient to it. This cycle may be 30–40year cycle of capex & opex dominant forces.
What does this mean? Every few decades, a few decades worth of CAPEX — time, people,& money put into research, development and innovation— is able to unlock a new ‘resource’ that then eventually becomes ubiquitous and cheap for the world to use and build new things with which then turns into an OPEX cycle. If all this sounds a bit academic, just give me a few minutes and it’ll all make more sense.
When we zoom out, this is how much of SaaS looks like today: a Malthusian bloodbath. At the beginning of the SaaS cycle, most markets were green-field opportunities, but today almost every SaaS category is saturated, every account requires a rip & replace, leading to longer and more competitive sales cycles, lower customer loyalties, leading to lower NRR, higher churn, and high vendor fatigue. These are the tell-tale signs of the tail end of an OPEX cycle— a cycle that doesn’t speak “I win because my innovation is better than yours”, but rather “I win because my $s are bigger than yours”.
Over the last 60 years, a lot of R&D has gone to bring the cost of compute down to near zero. This led to a personal device in every hand. We also have had the cost of distributing this compute down to near zero as well. That brought the marginal cost of software down to zero, which is basically the reason the internet exists. The next 30 years is going to bring the cost of intelligence down to zero. What would the world of software look like if everything ran on “insights” instead of “compute”? If you are a founder building in SaaS, this is what you should be gearing up for.
Just as the earlier Schumpeterian extractive and innovation-heavy cycles unlocked net-new resources—an oil drop, or a CPU cycle—the new resource that is now being unlocked is perhaps an “AI token”. As the internet cycle winds down, and the AI cycle picks up, it’ll be important to know where we are in the cycle and which assets to play in each part of the cycle.
As a founder, it likely matters less as a successful founder will likely generate wealth no matter which cycle s/he is in but as a long-term investor, this is important because playing these cycles wrong could lead to investing in the wrong asset or the right asset but at the wrong time.
Making these mistakes is more common than we think. Let’s take a few examples. While there has been a 20yr surge in oil production & prices in the US, you’d still lose money in having invested in oil indices over the same period."
20. I really want to visit Kyrgyzstan and will probably do so in 2024!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gnktDsOxDrY
21. Powerful new ship critical to American power in the Pacific.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s8DzimKKXc8
22. An Arctic Silk Road? Interesting development.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pvy9usF7ohE
23. "My hypothesis is that deep tech companies that build valuable IP can have meaningful exits quickly. On the other hand, traditional tech companies rarely have very strong IP and are mostly acquired based on strong traction. And it often takes longer to get to meaningful traction than to accumulate valuable IP.
As a result, deep tech VCs value strong founding teams even more highly than traditional VCs. If the team is good enough to produce unique, valuable IP, then they are likely to experience a good exit."
https://every.to/p/why-you-should-build-in-deep-tech
24. Maximum bullish on Japan and will definitely be doing a lot more business there in the next decade. I so love the place and look forward to spending way more time there.
"Underlying these four Japan megatrends is demographics. Far from being a negative—fewer people must equal lower consumption—Japan’s demographics will turn out to be a catalyst for positive change.
-Industries will consolidate, thus allowing greater efficiencies and economies of scale.
-The mattress-money wealth of Japanese households will be freed and reenter economic circulation.
-Increasingly scarce labor will be empowered and gain purchasing power.
-And global talent will build careers and make their fortunes here in Japan.
Importantly, all these forces represent real structural change that will remain in place for the foreseeable future."
https://japanoptimist.substack.com/p/japan-megatrends
25. "In practice, ambiguity aversion discourages people from doing things like participating in the stock market or trying new medical treatments when risks are less known. This may seem rational—better to play with the devil you know—but our ambiguity aversion also prevents us from seizing the upside of possibility. To be a leader is to act in the face of incalculable risk. As OKCupid founder Sam Yagan puts it, “The single biggest predictor of executive success is how you deal with ambiguity.”
One reason it’s so hard for us to sit with ambiguity is that our brain has a bias toward negative outcomes. If you are given a bag with a known mix of 50 red and 50 black balls and a bag with an unknown mix, it’s easier to assume that the unknown bag has worse odds than 50-50, even when it could just as well have better odds. While it’s easy to see the potential downside of turning toward the unknown, it’s much more difficult to see the potential upside.
In many ways, the job of an entrepreneur is to cultivate faith in the upside. Whether you are leading a company toward a new market or making a personal decision about your career, you can use what psychologists call cognitive reappraisal to counter the anxiety of not knowing. Cognitive reappraisal is a fancy way of saying “manage your mindset.”
While you might not be able to control the future, you can control your perspective on the unknown. Exercises like Tim Ferriss’s fear-setting, which asks you to take a realistic look at the upside, downside, and cost of inaction of any given decision, can help counter your tendency to catastrophize."
https://every.to/p/how-to-deal-with-uncertainty
26. "Itzler, who co-founded 29029 Everesting, is rangy and puckish, and he appears to have plucked his outfits from a college student’s laundry basket. His résumé is all hairpin turns: a former rapper, he wrote the earworm New York Knicks theme song, managed Run-DMC, and launched five successful companies, including a private-plane-rental service, before becoming a part owner of the Atlanta Hawks.
Having found his métier in motivation, seven years ago, Itzler is determined to become its leading practitioner. He believes that what we really want is to feel proud of ourselves. His chief method for instilling pride is to set physical challenges so difficult that you must discover something new within yourself to meet them.
Itzler told me, “What I’m really doing is providing people with a foundation for how to live. I could definitely make this a hundred-million-dollar business, because the category has exploded, and there’s such huge need.” Yet motivation, like intimacy, is hard to scale. It works best in high-school locker rooms, less well in arenas, and rarely, or barely, on Instagram. Itzler intends to grow with his clients—yet he worries that reaching the summit in his field might prove incompatible with becoming his best self.
“This space is filled with a lot of people regurgitating what other people have been saying for years, a lot of predatory marketing, a lot of snake oil,” he said. “Everybody says they’re not in it for the money, but everybody’s in it for the money.”
Self-help itself recently got an upgrade to “personal development.” It’s no longer the remedial training you undergo to quit smoking but a personal-brand refresh to catapult you into the C-suite. Every weekend, around the country, conferences attract aspirants eager to flip houses, or sell solar panels, or just get rich in some unspecified way. The conference-goers, mostly in their thirties and forties, have the air of commuters who missed the first train to the city and are determined to crowd onto the next one. They seek trade secrets and, better still, the mind-set to deploy them."
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2023/12/11/jesse-itzlers-secrets-of-success
27. "In my opinion, the creator economy thesis fell apart because investors had a fundamental misunderstanding of what risks they were underwriting. They didn’t understand the media industry, they didn’t understand creators’ needs, and they totally missed that this was a vertical SaaS bet.
To understand why creator economy bets were bad, you have to understand why creators themselves are a bad business.
A small business in general is a shitty business. 65% fail in the first 10 years in the U.S.
A media company is also a shitty investment. Media stocks had their worst decline in 30 years in 2022.
A creator is a small business that is also a media company (aka shit squared).
It is important for me to note that as a creator, I am one of those terrible businesses. I think there is economic value to be found by smart operators, but the fact is that the macroeconomic conditions for the sector aren’t exactly favorable."
https://every.to/napkin-math/what-happened-to-the-creator-economy
28. Tons of good tips for a productive, successful and happy life: Tai Lopez.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4MVgGwWFiq8&t=3187s
29. Elad Gil is a legend in Silicon Valley: dual threat as a top tier investor and operator.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b4CWtfC0HIM
30. I always watch this: Zeihan has been more right than wrong.
I like the attention to demographics and supply chain stuff, even though his predictions based on these might be bit extreme. But super helpful for understanding where the world is going.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7FzjJIzWOgY&t=201s
31. "Japan’s unique approach to space utilization, its appreciation for specialization, and a regulatory environment that, while complex, can be more navigable for locals, all contribute to a landscape that is particularly conducive to small, independent establishments.
I love startup and small business culture, and there’s a lot of inspiration we can take from other countries to keep improving it. We should find a way to help American cities re-discover their own sense of humanity and creativity, while bolstering some of the elements that have started to erode since before the pandemic: warmth, good customer service, businesses that value regulars, fewer chains and more independent establishments.
In fact, I’d highly recommend those who can afford it take a trip to Tokyo. Better yet, venture outside of the city center and into residential neighborhoods. Taking inspiration from Japan is about more than just policies; my real call to action is to my fellow founders to think about how we can counterbalance the aloofness that accompanies our cities’ too-cool attitude with a kind, service-first approach."
https://medium.com/japonica-publication/the-magic-of-japans-micro-businesses-f7ac3bca8d49
32. This guy seems to be one of the very few super rich guys who is living their best life.
Outside of Richard Branson, Gianluca Vacchi actually seems to be really legit having fun.
https://www.dmarge.com/who-is-gianluca-vacchi
33. Sweden and Poland are the regional powers in Europe. And possible alliance.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UTSrGpvZ_2w
34. Some great insights about investing and running startups.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fA00lIUES9A&t=822s
35. "With that said, in the USA, women are more likely to be childless, not married and generating income well into their 30s and 40s. Declining birth rates is already a trend and women will be spending even more money to maintain looks and status later in life.
For this reason we’ve got BowTiedTiger here to talk about various business lines primarily targeted at Women.
The Medspa.
A growing market to be sure and will continue to be for years to come as the population ages. The attraction is, of course, a non-surgical approach to youthful appearance and cosmetic improvement by several means including injectables (Botox and the like, as well as Fillers), laser therapies, fat reduction therapies, hair removal, typical aesthetician procedures such as microdermabrasion, dermaplane, and sales of white label skin care products or branded with an affiliate agreement."
https://bowtiedbull.io/p/medspa-angle-long-loneliness-thesis
36. Sober predictions at geopolitical level but really positive on the business side in America.
Revenge of the Angry Nerds: A More Competitive & Even More Ruthless Time in Silicon Valley
It’s hard not to see the zeitgeist shift in Silicon Valley in 2023 as observed by the Vox magazine article by Zoe Bernard: https://www.vox.com/technology/2023/12/27/24011198/bezos-zuckerberg-musk-buff-mma-masculine. It’s worth a read but not for the reason that you think.
There is a specific section I want to call attention to:
“This renewed sense of masculine dominance hit a fever pitch in 2023. The softer, soulful leaders of Silicon Valley’s previous decades have vacated. Gone is the delicate, ascetic presence of Jack Dorsey and the laissez-faire leadership of Sheryl Sandberg. Gone are the girl bosses. In their absence, the richest, most powerful men in tech are leading Silicon Valley toward a more macho future, one in which strength can be measured in muscles, women are absent from the boardroom, and ruthlessness is a virtue.
All of Silicon Valley reminds me of the first Top Gun movie: the abundance of testosterone, like 1970s, 1980s all over again,” said Manu Cornet, a cartoonist and software engineer who formerly worked at Twitter, now X. “It’s not even sarcastic or second degree.
“It’s a very jacked up movement,” said Glenn Kelman, the CEO of Redfin. “The people I know are thinking about testosterone and eating 500 grams of protein a day. They are ravenous, carnivorous, and totally yoked.”
But more recently, these same Silicon Valley companies have begun to look like the conventionally bloated behemoths at the pinnacle of corporate culture. Their leaders, too, have adopted a performance of masculinity that’s strikingly conventional and includes angry rhetoric, muscular physiques, and a newfound interest in physical combat.
The men responsible for building the products that touch the daily lives of billions of people display an increasing preoccupation with flaunting masculine bravado. It’s not just for show, either. The way these powerful men run their companies is impacting who is considered welcome in Silicon Valley.”
But like most leftist & woke writers, the article portrays this trend as a negative. I strongly disagree. It’s a counter-reaction to the ZIRP (Zero Interest Rate Phenomenon)-driven weakness that ripped through the ecosystem in the 2010s. And I think this turn was inevitable. The other side of the cycle.
The crazy amount of VC money is gone, most startups and big tech companies are fat and bloated and underperforming. Let’s look at the example of Twitter, Elon fired over 75% of the staff and Twitter still works. Think of the wastage at Google or Facebook or any of the big tech giants. Most tech workers are spoiled, entitled and lazy. Focused on the wrong things or working on non-core initiatives.
But the feast is over and now we are stuck with the famine. There will be very many more layoffs coming. Companies are waking up, losing their delusion and getting fit. If you thought 2023 was tough, 2024 is gonna be much harder. The easy money is gone. That is why we need a more severe mindset and attitude change in Silicon Valley. Frugality, focus and maybe most important, humility. Something we have not seen for a while.
We are back to basics. Founders, employees and investors need to fight for survival. It is war time now. Lean and mean is in vogue. Hard core work ethic of 996 (9 to 9, 6 days a week) will be required. It will be brutal and only the strong will survive like it always has been. But out of this reset, I expect to see another inevitable massive wave of growth and opportunity…..eventually.
You don’t have to be rich to Live a Rich Life: Wanting Versus Needing
Ramit Sethi had a great event back in 2017 called Forefront in NYC. Ramit Sethi is best known for his personal finance classic for young adults “I will make you Rich” and has developed a cult following due to his blunt and fresh thinking about money and how to manage it in this day and age. He has built a business empire of digital classes and even has a Netflix show.
In my pursuit of self development I always try to check out new conferences to learn new things and this event was really insightful. One of the biggest concepts he mentioned was that you don’t need to be rich to live a rich life.
But the slow learner that I am, while I understood the concepts he discussed at a conceptual level, I did not truly understand or take this to heart. Ironically, I only really figured it out when I had massive money problems like I did in 2020. Knowledge comes from pain as I’ve written many times.
Everyone has a magic number in their head: The F-ck You $$. I remember the number when I moved to SF was $10M USD. With inflation and rising costs here, FU money level is now probably $50M. But the lesson I learned is it all depends on what matters to you.
I firmly believe financial independence should be the goal of every young man. But this number really varies and all depends on what they value.
Some people want the expensive cars and expensive houses in top zip codes. The holidays in Hawaii at the Four Seasons Hotel, flying first class or private planes, wearing brand name luxury goods. That obviously will require substantially more money and a pretty high cost structure.
For me, I think it’s important to have the resources and capabilities to be able to afford these things. But you also need to understand what is a “want” versus a “need”. That’s critical for you to be independent.
I prefer a more asset light path. I love stuff as much as the other guy, I have an immense collection of books & a half decent set of weapons. I love traveling and staying at nice hotels. I’ve never cared that much about having a big house or expensive car. It’s too showy and frankly makes you a target. A very dangerous thing in a time of growing wealth inequality and lots of people falling behind and desperate. The USA is going to become more like Latin America & South Africa of rising violent crime.
It’s important to know what is valuable to you: for me it’s being generous and having time with family and friends, doing business and working with smart, awesome, honorable people; while building assets. I also love traveling around the world doing business and eating delicious cuisine. Having plenty of time to read, rest and exercise is also key. These are all needs for me. Everything else is a want and thus, not as important. I can be frugal with the things that I don’t care about. That leaves me with resources to spend on things that matter.
You don’t have to be a multimillionaire to have a great life, although it clearly does help. But if you keep your cost structure low, you will have freedom to pursue all the things that matter to you. This to me is what a rich life is about.
Staying Sane in an Insane World: Charity Starts at Home
As we set into 2024, I expect the global economy to be challenged, land war to continue in Europe and the Middle East. Things in startup land will continue to be tough as VCs are still licking their self inflicted wounds from the 2018-2021 investing vintages.
It’s so easy to be discouraged. When everything looks bad. So what do I do about this?
I stopped paying too much attention to the news or sports or video games. Spending time fanatically watching sports, whether football (American or European), basketball or hockey, is especially stupid to me as that doesn’t help pay your bills.
Instead I focus on improving myself, my business and family. That’s literally all I have control over. Anything else outside of my realm of control there is literally no point of spending any energy or time on.
Insanity is thinking and worrying about stuff that you cannot influence. So stop doing it. Get your head straight. Get yourself sorted and focused on what matters.
I go back to the airline safety videos. When the mask falls during an emergency, put the mask on yourself first before you help others. You are no good to others if you are incapacitated. Sort yourself out and then you will be in a better position to help others and the world.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads January 7th, 2024
"Be willing to be a beginner every single morning" –Meister Eckhart.
Follow the world's energy trail.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4mbQDmbaZuQ
2. A solid perspective on Henry Kissinger. Realist but effective in a ruthless and cynical way. Bit too cold blooded for me but something to learn here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NCCC0mOYNos
3. This is such a great episode talking about different business stories. Always learn so much.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lNSVc0S5MvA&t=20s
4. "While her popularity has grown across the decades, this is the year that Swift, 33, achieved a kind of nuclear fusion: shooting art and commerce together to release an energy of historic force. She did it by embracing what she does better than anyone, entertaining and writing songs that connect with people.
Now she becomes the first Person of the Year to be recognized for her success in the arts, in a year when we were reawakened to questions about who makes and who owns our cultural expressions. Swift is also a symbol of generational change: she is only the fourth solo Person of the Year born in the past half century.
In the 17 years since her debut, Swift has notched more No. 1 albums than any other woman in history. This year alone she had three. She was everywhere in 2023, filling stadiums and breaking records, which meant we were forced to find novel ways to measure the magnitude of her reach. Seismograms were deployed to show the literal impact caused by her fans.
As Swift reportedly became a billionaire, countries’ gross domestic products became the yardstick for her financial contributions. University classes to study Swift’s lessons in literature, business, and law were announced. Swift was showered with keys to cities and street signs changed to her name."
https://time.com/6342816/person-of-the-year-2023-taylor-swift-choice/
5. I'm bullish on SBSW & VTNR.
"The Nasdaq today is overvalued on nearly every conceivable historical metric. The CAPE ratio for the Nasdaq 100 is over 50 - near an all time high. Meanwhile the market thinks Braskem is literally worth less than half of the offers made by large industrial companies.
History shows that the time to by cyclical companies is when everyone else hates them. The time to sell is when others love them. Value investing may not be a perfect strategy, but it’s the only way to make money in markets that at least to my mind, seems repeatable. I’m sticking with it."
https://calvinfroedge.substack.com/p/the-market-is-kicking-me-in-the-teeth
6. Big fan of Chris Williamson.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iTaDwpDTcX8
7. These are excellent ritual situations for operating tempo.
"Operating velocity helps you create an exceptional culture and phenomenal team, both of which are critical ingredients to moving even faster. There is one other ingredient that makes or breaks the velocity of a company: its operating cadence.
By the time you cross 10 employees, as CEO, you start to ritualize key team events. Events like the “Weekly All-Hands” become a standard way that communication occurs and culture is built.
As you get bigger, these events are the “operating cadence” of a company — they are the rhythm of an organization that shape how decisions get made and how information is shared as companies scale. Different companies have different operating cadences: some companies are meeting-heavy, and some underemphasize communication; some companies develop process too early, and others too late."
https://medium.com/@travismay/building-the-right-operating-cadence-6c608fd142e1
8. "As Ukraine’s anticlimactic summer counteroffensive abates (and the Western media excitedly reverts to another cycle of hyperbolically dire assessments and forecasts about the war), it is easy to lose sight of the remarkable fact that Ukraine has recaptured over 20,000 square miles of terrain and continues to deliver a succession of tactical and strategic humiliations to Moscow.
Most recently, it has forced the Black Sea Fleet to relocate its historic naval base - in occupied Crimea - 500 miles east to Novorossiysk in Russia-proper. through the use of harassing drones, missile attacks, and marine raids, – Ukraine has achieved a feat of deterrence the British, French, and Turks would have envied as far back as the mid-nineteenth century. This is to say nothing of Ukraine’s ability to strike well behind enemy lines via its hypertrophied covert action capability. The SBU, the country’s domestic security service, has reportedly blown up two cargo trains in Siberia, some 3,000 miles from Ukraine’s border, according to a Ukrainian source speaking to Reuters.
If anything resembling a normal political environment existed in the United States, Ukraine’s battlefield successes to date would be trumpeted as an enormous return on investment. But as of writing, the latest security assistance package, which included $61 billion of aid for Ukraine plus funding for Israel and Taiwan, stalled in the Senate, the victim of partisan squabbles over a supplemental border security package and curbs on immigration.
The Biden administration, then, has done three things simultaneously by arming Ukraine, all of which MAGA bangs on about in advocating the United States “defund” Ukraine. It has created and is still creating new manufacturing jobs at home while breathing new life into an obsolescent or sclerotic American defense sector. It has cajoled ambivalent or tentative NATO allies into taking more responsibility for their own security and shouldering more of the burden for a European nation at war.
It has radically diminished the conventional threat posed against the United States by Russia – a threat previously anatomized by Donald Trump’s own Defense Department – thereby freeing up resources, attention, and bandwidth for deterring China, the other state power posing such a threat. All this without the deployment of a single American soldier to a combat zone or the loss of a single American life overseas. You might even say the vanguard of the Republican Party should by now be “tired of winning;” instead, they insist, getting everything they ever claimed to have wanted is presented as a colossal defeat."
https://theins.press/en/politics/267432
9. "The second problem is that Western war production hasn’t really ramped up nearly as much as it needs to. Russia has increased its ammunition production to 1 million shells a year, and may eventually be able to make it to 2 million; they’ve figured out ways to evade Western sanctions by routing imports through third countries like Kazakhstan, and they’re getting significant help from China. The U.S. plans to increase shell production to a similar amount, but not until 2025.
Meanwhile, the Europeans are still floundering, unwilling to spend the required money and saddled with a defense procurement process even more dysfunctional than America’s. Thus, for the next year or two, Russia — a country with a GDP only the size of Italy’s — will be singlehandedly outproducing the entire West in terms of some of the most essential weapons of war.
(Side note: Imagine what a war with China would look like.)
Ukraine’s third and final hurdle is manpower. Russia has more than four times as many people as Ukraine. Even though Russia’s mobilization has been chaotic and haphazard and Russians are less motivated to fight in the war, it’s a lot easier for Russia to come up with bodies to throw into the meatgrinder, simply because of the country’s sheer size.
So Ukraine is in trouble. But that doesn’t mean Russia is about to win, or has already won, or any of the things that the pro-Russia people love to scream on Twitter. Before we believe their propaganda, we should think carefully about why this war is happening, what Russia hoped to accomplish, and what Ukraine has won so far.
In the year since Ukraine took Kherson, the war has become a static one. But Russia has continued to take massive casualties. According to recently declassified U.S. intelligence estimates, Putin’s military has taken 315,000 casualties (dead and wounded). That’s almost half again as many as the 218,000 casualties that the U.S. took in the entire Vietnam War.
But it’s still a staggering number. Only by throwing Russia’s entire economy and society into the effort has Putin managed to maintain battlefield parity with a poor country less than one-fourth Russia’s size. And even more importantly, Russia has lost massive numbers of tanks and other armored vehicles — by some estimates as many as 4000 tanks! — basically running down the huge arsenal bequeathed to them by the Soviets.
To sum up, if the war ended tomorrow, it would be a technical Russian victory over Ukraine, but a strategic defeat for Russia and a successful independence struggle and nation-defining episode for Ukraine. And the U.S. and NATO would have achieved a strategic success without even fighting. A lot of Ukrainians would be mad that 18% of their country was still occupied by the Russians, of course, and would resolve to get it back at a later date. But when you put it in perspective, it’s clear that this would be an overall Ukrainian triumph."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/some-thoughts-on-where-the-war-in
10. Guy is a MAGA Kook but he is not wrong here. The WEF is anti-human.
https://www.dossier.today/p/world-economic-forum-demands-35-trillion
11. Super helpful info for sales managers in B2B.
https://kellblog.com/2023/12/14/lessons-from-playing-with-a-simple-quota-attainment-model/
12. Hybrid war happening against us.
"The general perception is that the number of hate crimes in the US has exploded since 2016.
-They haven’t. The perception of a surge is due to:
-Amplification from social networking and mainstream media.
-A large and rapidly growing number of faked incidents.
Disturbingly, a growing number of incidents appear to be the work of nation-states, corporations, or funded activist groups."
https://johnrobb.substack.com/p/unlimited-outrage
13. Excellent conversation this week. VC is over for the year. Make number go up!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A0vtDOKU5Tg
14. Love this guys Newsletter: Recommend it. Byrne Hobart is great.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BoKjGfiK3nM
15. "While even the greatest venture investors will attribute their success to luck, the consistency of returns amongst the top investors is evident. It’s not just luck when you’re an investor that is consistently investing in amazing companies at the earliest stages. While early success certainly makes it easier to win subsequent opportunities, I’m a fervent believer that there are better “pickers” than others — those who can develop independent conviction in opportunities that are non-consensus.
Finding opportunity where others don’t see it requires more than a crystal ball — it requires work! As I witness the best investors in the VC asset class, they put in this work to consistently see greatness where others don’t. Yes, they win consensus “hot” deals as well, but even those opportunities require them to develop a premium on their conviction. Developing that type of conviction requires a way to structure thoughts despite incredibly unstructured data — that’s done through mental models.
Kenneth Craik proposed the concept that individuals use “mental models” to “anticipate events, reason, and form explanations”, but it was Charlie Munger who popularized their application in the investing world, implying that he used a latticework of different mental models — essentially an integrated system of different mental models — to inform his investment perspectives.
While value investing and venture investing are different disciplines, the best venture investors of the last decade all have their constructs for evaluating investment opportunities — some of which are based on popularized emerging concepts like the power of network effects and others of which were likely home grown."
https://medium.com/@EqualVentures/on-the-importance-of-mental-models-in-investing-fa2b3a285e5c
16. "In 2024, I expect most of these figures to revert to the mean - not the peaks of 2020-2021, but more akin to 2018.
The public valuation environment & pace of venture capital investments mirror those years better than others.
Five years ago, valuations continued to grow, competitive rounds didn’t last in market for more than a week or so, & pre-emptions did occur. But most of the market operated at a steady cadence with predictable figures for traction, valuation, & dilution."
https://tomtunguz.com/the-typical-round-in-2023/
17. OG of Silicon Valley. Vinod Khosla. Lots of great learnings.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A5c2ho3YQBg
18. Grifters everywhere. These people are the enemy. But still appreciate the hustle.
19. Rick Rule is one of the best observers of commodities and consequently geopolitics.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0aDfNjkH9DE&t=65s
20. Not a bad thing that the VC bubble is popping. Hopefully the arrogance too.
"For the last decade, a career in VC came with the promise of huge returns, as technology startups raised record sums and a flurry of initial public offerings minted a new generation of VC millionaires. But OpenView’s sudden collapse, precipitated by the departure of several of its senior partners, cemented a growing fear among investors that a job in VC was far less secure than many of them had once imagined. Even firms that have raised funds in the billions of dollars aren’t immune to the challenges presented by higher interest rates.
For junior investors who grew accustomed to the bountiful opportunities of recent years, the adjustment to the current reality is especially harsh. Many of them came to see quick follow-on investments, which increased the value of their deals on paper, as the natural order of things, along with speedy job promotions. Succeeding in venture during downturns requires a different skill set and patience, seasoned investors claim. The adjustment can be painful.
“This year, partners have left an array of elite Silicon Valley VC firms, including Menlo Ventures, Sequoia Capital, Y Combinator and Greycroft Partners. Many departures have occurred as the firms have shifted their strategies to focus on hot investing categories like artificial intelligence. So taboo is the subject of layoffs at VC firms that almost none of them will publicly admit they have happened.
For the first time in more than 10 years, the downsides of the job are much more apparent,” said Theory’s Tunguz, who started his venture career in 2008.
Bear market conditions have caused “simmering pervasive anxiety” among VC’s next generation, Slow’s Rechtman said.
“A year ago it was, ‘Things are going to be really bad, but it’s not going to be me and it’s not going to be you,’” Rechtman said. “Now I would be surprised if there’s anyone that doesn’t have a good friend and colleague who’s been laid off in the last year. It’s sort of impossible to ignore.”
21. This was such a great conversation. So insightful. I use this word alot but it really was so good. Interview with Jeff Bezos. It's a long one but it went by very fast.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DcWqzZ3I2cY
22. "All businesses exist on a spectrum and this 2x2 just reduces the complexity of the real world into something easier to generalize. I think the answer to whether to get off the train really depends on the kind of company you have.
If you have a business that is no longer a fit for the venture model and doesn’t have near-term prospects for good unit economics, you have to get off the venture train and figure out if the business you’re working on is viable. If you have a business that has really good unit economics, can get profitable, and grow, you might want to seriously consider getting off the train. This is particularly true if you are in a category where investors do not have a lot of enthusiasm for your category. Taking your own destiny into your own hands might be the right answer for you.
My big takeaway from having had many of these conversations that the choice to stay on the train really requires evidence or a belief that you’re pursuing an opportunity that really fits the kind of outcomes that VCs want to see. If you’re not in one of the rightmost quadrants in the chart above, I would question whether it makes sense for you to stay on the VC train and rely on venture funding for your future financing needs."
https://chudson.substack.com/p/getting-off-the-vc-train
23. Lots of good tips for productivity and enjoying it at the same time. Ali is the man! Can't wait to get the book.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z3jNYz0kxWg
24. "All of these machinations have helped forge a new category in the clubby world of venture capital, elevating the hosts of “All-In” from mere startup investors to business-celebrity influencers. However, the brands they are most avidly promoting aren’t companies or consumer goods (yet), but themselves. Meanwhile, the success of the podcast has helped paper over a less-than-dazzling run in the hosts’ day jobs, including flopped investments, increased regulatory scrutiny, dozens of shareholder lawsuits and humbling fundraising struggles.
A source familiar with the podcast's production explained that the four hosts used it as “a way to get business, as a way to get deal flow, as a way to be recognized by [limited partners], as a way to build brand notoriety.” This strategy, said the person, aligned with a philosophy commonly espoused by young VC firms—that “the ones that have really held the staying power and distinguished themselves had a very differentiated marketing strategy.
Some fans hang on every word the besties say. Others love to hate-listen. But the podcast’s reach within tech is undeniable. “Every time I survey entrepreneurs, it is the only podcast that has wide adoption,” said Founders Fund general partner Keith Rabois.”
25. "My recommendation for entrepreneurs is to find a relief valve during stressful periods. For some, it’s going on a jog; others, it’s playing video games. Some love to cook or read fiction. In the end, it’s important to have something that works for you so that when the stressful times occur, and they always will, you have a relief valve ready to go."
https://davidcummings.org/2023/12/16/relief-valve-during-stressful-periods/
26. "In America, to have money is to be more interesting. People are drawn to you, give you the benefit of doubt, laugh at your jokes, and are apt to want to help you and your family. In sum, to be rich in America is to be loved. If America is a family, the household has never been more prosperous and full of love. However, like the future, it’s not distributed equally.
As we’ve written before, ground zero for America’s problems boils down to one thing: For the first time in our history, a 30-year-old is not doing as well as his/her parents were at 30. This is a fundamental break and, more disturbing, a function of deliberate decisions (i.e. social and economic policies that transfer wealth from young to old).
Nimbyism, rejectionism, seniors voting themselves more money and bailouts, financed by future generations, to preserve the wealth of incumbents are generational theft, full stop. A 70-year-old is, on average, 72% wealthier than four decades ago; a citizen under 40 is 24% less wealthy."
https://www.profgalloway.com/prof-g-person-of-the-year/
27. "This should be the first very strong clue that modern rich nations’ wealth didn’t come primarily from plunder, but from something else — something that nations started doing over the last century and a half. In fact, we know what that something is — it’s industrial production, coupled with modern science.
We are far richer than our ancestors because we know how to make a lot more stuff than we did then — cars and trains and planes and antibiotics and vaccines and reinforced concrete and electricity and running water and TVs and computers and all the rest. And we know how to make stuff more efficiently. In 1810, 0.4 percent of Americans’ income was spent on nails. Yes, you heard that right — the little metal pointy things took $1 out of every $250 we earned. Nowadays it’s negligible. In 2006, the price of lighting in the UK was about 1/4500 the price of lighting in 1786.
So the fabulous wealth of the modern day can’t be due to plunder alone. The world does not contain a fixed lump of wealth that gets divided up among the people of Earth. Human ingenuity and hard work increases the amount of wealth in the world.
All things considered, I think the more reasonable case to make is that wealth, generally speaking, is something that comes from a country’s technological ingenuity, hard work, sound policy, political stability, high-quality institutions, and openness to foreign ideas and technology and investment. Today, in 2023, wealth is a thing that nations create for themselves, not something they steal from other nations."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/nations-dont-get-rich-by-plundering
28. "What keeps Russia going (and saves it from defeat) is primarily Western hesitation, disunity, and a lack of political will in providing a decisive and powerful military and financial aid to Ukraine.
With: 1) no troops on the ground, 2) most of the contracts and military-industrial benefits going to US states and manufacturing plants (that create more jobs, and get their assembly lines in shape - in preparation for a larger conflict with China), and 3) at a mere 0.18% of its GDP and an annual amount 4x less than what is lost by the Federal government to general transaction errors, what the US gets in return is astonishing: a 315k casualty inflicted on Russia’s armed forces (with 90% of pre-invasion army accumulated at the Ukrainian border, now destroyed).
Credit where it is due: when it comes to manipulation and deception, Putin stands out as a class of his own.
To be clear, he is not necessarily extraordinary in his skill (although he very well may be), but his willingness to be so brazen in applying his skills certainly makes him extraordinary.
He has managed to convince a not so insignificant portion of the electorate in the US and the EU that he is a bastion of traditional christian values - fighting against the woke and decadent west."
Also JD Vance, Orban and their ilk are scum.
https://thebismarckcables.substack.com/p/weekly-overview-ukraine-war-putins
29. "In our cartoon world view, every single industry follows long cycles. This could be the business cycle, the crypto cycle and even the stock market cycle that typically goes for about a decade or so. The bond market also has a cycle if you look at interest rates.
Therefore, the main reason we were so focused on the bond market at the end of the year is simple. It’s usually a 15-20 year frame cycle. We’ve never owned bonds or even considered talking about them for anyone who has followed us for more than a decade.
This created a chance to build a position and never look at it again. The same applies to all of the financial assets we try to buy: stocks, bonds, crypto and RE.
Currently: Crypto cycles are historically quite short since it’s a brand new asset class. Innovation is continuing to move in that direction so just like the internet you are forced to research, invest and use the products. If you don’t you could be left in the dust bin similar to people who didn’t take computers seriously in the 2000s.
RE: This is usually a 10-12 year cycle and as you know getting out in 2021 means that we think it’s largely done. While being flattish over the last 2 years is not bad, it isn’t good if rates remain at 5%.
Stocks: This is turning into the new bond market. Outside of a few major winners who continue to take market share (FAANNG) or some other acronym, there are very few companies that will become extremely large in the future. Even then it will be tech/healthcare since that’s what drives value. People will be glued to screens and using tech to lower the cost of every other product made on the planet (from food to clothing). Without tech, no productivity improvements are seen.
Bonds: Only move in dramatic events. COVID was one, the financial crisis was one and the Tech boom/bust was another good example."
https://bowtiedbull.io/p/re-market-update-lump-sum-investing
30. Hmmm......geopolitical view of MENA region after America retreats.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PycoZ1R35Z4
31. I fall in this camp. Sam Lessin is incredibly incisive on his views of what VC will look like. A return to craftsperson style of venture. Cookie cutter VC is over, thankfully.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=crj_H3JPHvg
32. Very educational conversation from a very experienced LP. All venture managers should listen to this. Emerging fund managers are where the action is at.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IwL6WbMt5oM
33. "It's hard to imagine a break-glass, wartime general allowing any of these issues, which amount to middle school politics, to get in the way of outcomes. But why wait until wartime to solve problems we can fix today?
If the military-industrial complex is only capable of innovating during wartime (and even that premise is questionable) and is dysfunctional during peacetime, this bodes poorly for progress writ large. The U.S. government has a unique role to play in progress by seeding capex intensive and often highly regulated technologies that will not otherwise make it to a commercial market. For some of the world’s most impactful technology, the U.S. government will be the first but not the biggest customer.
The integrated circuit is the best example of this. Minuteman and Apollo were critical early programs, but chip demand for personal computing was soon a much bigger market than defense. The Space industry today is around the same stage as the integrated circuit was in the early 1960s.
Now, the U.S. government should not seed industries it has no use for, but for certain technologies, it is the pacesetter on progress. It is therefore unacceptable to have stagnation just because the American people no longer practice duck-and-cover drills."
https://kinetic.reviews/p/rejecting-our-faustian-bargain
34. "But there’s another place that chipmakers can put their fabs right now — a country with cheap land, labor, and capital, with a sophisticated existing semiconductor supply chain and lots of skilled workers. A country more secure from Chinese invasion than Taiwan, yet not as hobbled by domestic political divisions and labor-management struggles as the U.S.
That country is Japan.
In fact, this post is a bit late, since chipmakers are already investing quite a bit in Japan.
In any case, I don’t want to make it sound like I think Japan is headed for dominance in the semiconductor industry. Instead, I think it will reintegrate itself into a supply chain that includes the U.S., Taiwan, South Korea, and Europe — a globally distributed web of high-tech companies that cooperates more than it competes, and which is dedicated to the overriding purpose of staying ahead of a hard-charging China.
That’s a very feasible goal for Japan, rather than the single-country dominance it aimed for in the 1980s. And that’s why I predict that chipmakers are going to continue investing there."
https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/six-reasons-chipmakers-should-put