Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads Apr 24th, 2022
“Happy he who learns to bear what he cannot change.”- Friedrich Schiller
"Grains, and meats are experiencing unprecedented catastrophes resulting in both increased prices and shortages. Furthermore even if we could grow or produce more, the basic building blocks such a fertilizer are unavailable to help alleviate the shortages we face.
The Supply Chain is in shambles and the World will be feeling these effects for many years to come even if everything was fixed tomorrow. The unfortunate nature of the global supply chain is that we are all interdependent on each other; and the scale in which we are operating on is so vast that one hiccup has major knock on effects.
The shortages are real, the bears for once are right."
https://mercurial.substack.com/p/on-the-shortages
2. I like seeing Canadians crushing it in America.
"Seed funded with $1.5 million by storied angel Ram Shriram among others, StumbleUpon would go on to be acquired several months later by eBay for $75 million.
Then Camp’s career really took off.
Within two years, Camp had bought back StumbleUpon with a syndicate of investors (he later folded the outfit into a newer discovery app called Mix). Around that same time, in 2009, Camp began tinkering in earnest with his idea for an on-demand car service — one that famously became Uber and which made Camp, who still owned 4% of it when Uber went public in 2019, a multibillionaire."
3. This is a very good discussion now whats happening with economic impact of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the consequent sanctions. Good for anyone interested in global macro trends & investing.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JNsW2zdXt9o
4. "Bitcoin does not have an implicit yield in BTC terms at the protocol level. Post-merge, ETH will. Therefore, Bitcoin is money, and ETH is a commodity-linked bond.
As global real rates are deeply negative, I want to own an asset that has a positive yield in its own currency — and at the moment, that is ETH. Bitcoin yields nothing. Therefore, from a pure interest rate differential perspective, I should own more ETH than Bitcoin. This will change when the price of ETH sufficiently rises to incorporate future ETH cash flows, due to the new rewards and validation system."
https://cryptohayes.medium.com/five-ducking-digits-cd92a7ab72ce
5. This is sad that it's happening in this day & age. Especially to a place I love. (Curse Putin and his Russian Army Orcs) But this is worth watching.
Also my friend Alexander K. successful entrepreneur turned soldier in the territorial defense force is in this video. Slava Ukraini!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DqIF2U4g7H8
6. One of the best shows in town (Silicon Valley town that is). Dorsey vs. Andreessen.
"Maybe the fight between the Bitcoin maximalist utopians and the crypto-promiscuous capitalists was always destined to blow up between Dorsey and Andreessen. Sure, they are both white male tech billionaires around the same age who made it big in Silicon Valley by coding.
But they grew up differently. They see the world, and themselves, differently. Andreessen thinks he’s the smartest guy in the room while Dorsey thinks he’s the most moral guy in the room. And no one fights as hard as people from the same tribe who want their tribe to go different places."
7. This is going to be ugly on energy and food front for next few years. Super high energy, grain & food prices.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=93JKT4LkUOo
8. Another story of affluent digital nomads angering the locals.
Still Mexico City is a really awesome underrated city. For visitors and nomads please be good guests there or anywhere.
https://www.vox.com/the-goods/22999722/mexico-city-pandemic-remote-work-gentrification
9. Good explanation for the disastrous performance of the Russian army orcs. Bad organization, riddled with corruption, with crap leadership and no real motivation.
10. Cannot believe people actually believe this stupid theory. But then again Greenwald is a complete shill and Putin fanboy. F--- that guy & Putin.
"The basic argument is that Putin’s announced war aims — the “de-Nazification” and “demilitarization” of Ukraine — weren’t a declaration of an intent to launch a regime change operation targeting Kyiv, as most analysts believe. Instead, Putin’s true objective was more limited: expanding Russian control over eastern Ukraine, with the attacks on Kyiv serving as a kind of feint to tie down Ukrainian forces.
“Suppose for a moment that Putin never intended to conquer all of Ukraine, that, from the beginning, his real targets were the energy riches of Ukraine’s east, which contain Europe’s second-largest known reserves of natural gas (after Norway’s),” Bret Stephens writes in the New York Times. Stephens is not alone in this: National Review’s Michael Brendan Dougherty and prominent Substacker Glenn Greenwald have both recently advanced versions of this claim.
Yet their arguments do not stand up to even light scrutiny: They are not consistent with the structure of Russia’s military campaign, public statements by Russian authorities, or even a basic cost-benefit analysis."
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/23003689/putin-ukraine-russia-donbas-energy-feint
11. "Whatever Putin's aims, his military currently lacks the necessary manpower to sustain a protracted war. There is, however, a way he could change that.
In short, Putin could drop the pretence that Russia is conducting a "special military operation" in Ukraine, as opposed to fighting a war.
By declaring war, he could then mobilise Russians at a national level.
The problem is, doing so would contradict the information that has been fed to Russians since the beginning of the invasion. That makes it a political risk."
12. "From my perspective, I expect the Democrats to rely on their progressive playbook over the next few months. They’ll try to buy support using aggressive social spending programs while maintaining an aggressive anti-Russian/China stance. This will be a disastrous mixture for US economic hegemony.
It will ultimately harm the value of the dollar. The net result will be a new geopolitical dynamic with America, Europe, Russia, China, and India vying to split global dominance. And because of this fragmenting version of globalism, it will be a fertile ground for a new global reserve asset.
The moral of this story is that 2023 could prove to be Bitcoin’s spring. Can you imagine a better hedge for the coming months of uncertainty? In this timeframe expect rising inflation and additional waves of government stimulus which are likely to be within the US administrations playbook.
Bitcoin is the globalists hedge against rising nationalism, economic warfare, and an emergent multipolar future. The bottom line is that now seems like the idea time to accumulate in earnest."
https://dougantin.com/america-do-you-feel-in-charge
13. "If it is just a question of optics (hopefully so!), could it be that this off-balance sheet/outsourcing approach is now proving more expensive than the costs it was meant to save?
Does the outsourcing of space capabilities to private firms mean that war is effectively now being conducted by private firms? Have we tried to move war itself off-balance sheet? Can this be sustained? Will war itself ultimately embroil the superpowers and their proxies rather than just their off-balance-sheet assets? Will these off-balance-sheet and outsourced activities boomerang back onto government balance sheets, forcing central banks to catch these activities with their own balance sheet?
It seems strange to think the Fed might raise rates and face further additions to its balance sheet at the same time. But, this is possible."
https://drpippa.substack.com/p/the-off-balance-sheet-world
14. First time I agree with this guy on anything. Fcuk the CCP & their enablers in West (ie. Hollywood & Wall Street).
"The CCP has taken the opportunity to showcase its technocratic authoritarian prowess, putting on a display that is proving to be the envy of the world’s tyrannical ruling class, which modeled their COVID responses from some form of the Wuhan lockdowns.
Of course, none of this has anything to do with science, as none of these measures actually do anything to stop a virus from spreading among a population, as proven through two years of data showing the failures of lockdowns. And the additional downsides of Wuhan-style lockdowns, both on an individual and societal level, remain obvious to any objective observer. Why China has decided to put on this pseudoscientific display once again — this time in Shanghai — remains a mystery."
https://dossier.substack.com/p/shanghai-under-lockdown-witness-the
15. "Why are people surprised here? This is the Russian way of war. They did this in WW2, Chechnya, and Syria.
The Russian army is brutal and not professional like what we know in the West. This is why Russia cannot be allowed to win."
https://news.yahoo.com/saw-horrific-things-ukrainians-recall-112305197.html
16. "This is one of the many reasons Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is so vividly horrific; the imagery seems borrowed from another time. Charred tanks, soldiers freezing while they wait to attack, civilians taking shelter or sifting through rubble, and the long columns of refugees — it all reminds us of that terrible past. It is also so at odds with modern expectations and standards that many are now remarking that the world will not be the same when this war is over."
https://www.grid.news/story/global/2022/04/01/tectonic-shifts-how-putins-war-will-change-the-world
17. "Retirement is a Scam: In the end, long-term readers of this side of the internet know that retirement is a dream sold to the masses. No one successful enjoys doing nothing all day (billionaires continue to work/do something well past retirement age). Instead, we should focus on a point at which *you* don’t have to work on anything you dislike! You’re still going to work doing something.
The point is that you should have an *exit number* to remove all the excuses for doing a job/career/business you hate. To be clear. Until you make it, you absolutely need to do things you hate/loathe as you haven’t made it yet."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/lifestyle-inflation-and-retirement
18. I'm actually pro-Bitcoin but this is interesting.
"Gary Gensler can be accused of many things, but being ignorant of how crypto markets work is not one of them. After all, he used to teach a class at MIT’s Sloan School of Management titled Blockchain and Money. Gensler knows what really drives the “price” of Bitcoin, and what is driving the need for a constant supply of new fiat. It is all right there in the filings for everyone to see.
We suspect most Bitcoin enthusiasts simply do not want to look."
https://doomberg.substack.com/p/a-spot-of-bother-for-bitcoin
19. This is why we need to arm Ukraine to the teeth and sanction the crap out of Putin and his cronies. #StandwithUkraine
"Indifference to human life has been a hallmark of Russian strategy throughout this war. Thousands of civilians have already died because of being struck by missiles, shells, and bombs. There has been no shortage of reports of the appalling treatment being meted out by Russian troops. The ‘Bucha effect’ may confirm the phenomenon that after a certain point the casualties of war become statistics, the numbers so large that it is impossible to comprehend their human meaning.
What makes the difference are images that are visceral and intimate, so that we can imagine not only the terror of the victims but also the barbarity of the perpetrators. It is one thing to fire into residential areas from a distance and quite another to go into those areas, look helpless people in the eye, and then kill them in cold blood.
The effect has also been to bring a moral clarity to all strategic calculations. Having now seen what happens when Russia occupies Ukrainian territory, Western governments know that they cannot push President Zelensky to make any territorial concessions simply to bring the war to an end. Of course, the West is in no position to bring regime change to Moscow. Nor can Ukraine. Only the Russians can do that.
So all that can be done is to support Ukraine until Russian troops have left, leaving Putin to face the consequences of his catastrophic folly."
https://samf.substack.com/p/the-russo-ukraine-war-phase-two
20. Super insightful view on why the Russian army sucks & seems only capable of looting and killing civilians from long range bombardment.
https://twitter.com/kamilkazani/status/1511528319656755205
21. This is always a fun and educational show. "Not Investing Advice"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TriHbXqJpiA
22. I truly hope someone takes out Putin & soon.
"In fact, his policy goal, now, is never going to happen. He thought the war would be over within two or three days. We’re now into a second month and it may go on much longer than this. I hope not, but it’s possible. And in his mind, he is pursuing a legitimate historical goal.
And can he lose? No. Can he persuade himself, ever, that he has lost? No. The only people who can persuade him will never persuade him, they will have to get rid of him in one way or another. And those are the people closest to him. They are the ones who know his mind, know his methods because they are the same people.
And if they get rid of him, there may be somebody very much like him who would come into power, or if we are lucky … if we are lucky, we may get to see the other promise of Russia … of literature, of music, of history, of growth, of creativity — Russia and the Russian people, it’s a great society.
And if there were another way of leaving the KGB mentality and reaching into the other Russia, we would all be so much better off led by the Russian people themselves. Is it possible? Yes. It’s there. It has to emerge from the soot and the gutter that it exists in today."
https://www.vox.com/2022/4/6/23013514/vladimir-putin-russia-ukraine-history-marvin-kalb
23. I don't understand why anyone would support Putin and the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
These are the atrocities they commit, and more will come out soon based on the territories these monsters control now.
And this is why the West must back Ukraine until the barbaric Russian army is destroyed or pushed out of Ukraine.
https://www.vox.com/2022/4/3/23009048/russian-troops-retreat-in-ukraine-civilian-deaths-discovered
24. 3 weeks old here so his views on Russian success in Ukraine are dated and wrong so far. But the long term predictions on global geopolitics seem to be good.
Worth a listen to get yourself out of your media bubble.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Mu19_rlwHgY
25. A great charitable initiative to help Ukrainian refugees led by some founders I know. Please help support them.
https://www.ukrainianhelphub.com/donate
26. Awesome way to support Ukraine by buying from their awesome companies. #StandWithUkraine
27. "Net-net here, I can see a route to a potential peace deal, but it still requires Russia to win the Battle for Donbas, which is not a given. This war could still drag on for a very long time – and what is notable is that peace talks seem to be going nowhere. The West is just set on ensuring Putin loses which means continuing to arm/finance Ukraine."
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/putins-next-move
28. My bet is on Ukraine. Morale and experience matters. #armukrainenow
"Both sides have pretty good reasons to believe that they could emerge triumphant.
It’s possible Russia successfully pulls Ukraine into a series of pitched battles in which their aircraft and artillery advantages prove decisive, allowing them to encircle the Joint Forces and seize the entire Donbas. It’s possible that the Ukrainians successfully blunt the Russian attack and mount a counteroffensive, leveraging their manpower reserves and more motivated fighting force to retake parts of the region Russia currently controls. It’s possible they end up in a bloody stalemate, a long war of attrition where the two armies wear each other out over the course of months or years.
Right now, as the fighting is just ramping up, it’s impossible to say which of these scenarios, if any, is the most likely outcome. Too much depends on unpredictable battlefield developments.
But at the same time, it’s not clear how much the outcome of the battle will actually end up mattering. In my conversations with experts, each and every one of them said that, in the big picture, Russia has suffered an irreversible defeat in this war.
“The Russian special military operation in Ukraine is already a strategic failure,” Oliker says. “What they wanted out of this was a compliant Ukraine run by people friendly to Russia. This does not seem like a plausible outcome — and, aside from that, their forces have proven to be much less capable than almost everyone thought.”"
29. This is a good video for my simple brain. I like the white board explanation here. Bretton Woods 3 has begun.
Tactical Darwinism: Survival is Victory
I learned a new term & concept called: Tactical Darwinism. This is how at the beginning of a war or crisis; all the idiots, badly trained, careless or ignorant people are killed off. The survivors all tend to be tougher and more capable because they have learned the hard lessons through the painful experience of seeing others taken down. These hard lessons are literally earned and learned in blood.
I thought about how relevant this is in all aspects of life and work or when you are thrown into a new situation or place. Using a work example: this is no different than the incoming class of the masses of summer interns at Goldman Sachs or McKinsey, only a few of them are good enough to get actual offers to go back and work there full time. Ie. Become the chosen ones.
Tips for surviving tactical Darwinism.
Be aware: channel your excitement and fear into deep environmental awareness & focus
Learn who all the key players are
Identify the most capable person
Copy that person: watch & follow what the grizzled war vet or best sales person does
Even better get a top mentor
This allows you to learn the rules of the game.
When I wanted to learn Venture Capital, I went to learn from the best inside and outside the firm. And absorbed everything I could from them live and from a massive number of videos, podcasts and blogs and books. The rules and basics of the game.
And over time, you start to do experiments and develop new innovations on top of this. You learn what works and what does not. The longer you do this, the better you get. This is why I am not a fan of people who jump from job to job or company to company every year. They don’t stay long enough to develop the skills or see the results of their work. Good things take time.
This has served me well in my career & think it will for you.
Of course, for this to happen you do have to survive first. You do this by getting as good as possible as fast as possible. That’s where the hard work, grind and discipline comes in. Put these together and over enough time, you will inevitably do well in life. Just like you can compound interest, you can also compound skills which may be just as important. In fact, compounding skills may be even more important in the long run.
The First Step & Goal for EVERYONE Who Wants True Freedom: Have a Financial Cushion of 12 Months Cash in the Bank
I was listening to the always excellent and entertaining “Not Investment Advice” podcast with special guest Ric Burton. Lots of great crypto stories there. But the biggest thing that caught my ear was this great discussion on finance. He got 10,000 ETH back when it was pennies in 2014. Despite the life changing money, he admitted it made him crazy and he did misspend a lot of it. But it was a game changer for him as it gave him a taste of exponential wealth.
“Everyone focuses on getting rich. How about just getting 12 months in the bank. So many people don’t have 12 months cash in the bank. So what do you know, when you have a crazy downmarket, or an abusive partner, or you have someone fire you? Having that cash that just sat there? The level of confidence? F— YOU. Just chill on the couch for 9 months, I could just be scratching my knees and I’d be absolutely fine. That’s why I always have cash on hand. You learn the lesson of how insane you go when you don’t have it. It Drives you Mad.”
Wow, I had to stop and process this. This is exactly what REKT me in 2020. Not having that extra cushion of liquidity, when my tenants stopped paying me & when some clients/partners could not pay the accounts receivables. This literally drove me mad.
Despite a fairly successful career, whatever you think your net worth is, if this net worth is NOT liquid, it’s NOT true net worth as many formerly successful people learned the hard way.
Having 12 months of liquid cash, not investments, but liquid cash, is critical. You have to be honest with yourself. Can you access this right away? Ie. Can you get that cash NOW.
Make sure you manage your runway very carefully.
Quoting Ric Burton again: “What’s Your runway. And you have to be honest with yourself. By runway, I don’t mean what assets you can sell. I mean how much you got in physical cash in a safe and debit card cash that could pay your expenses. Under twelve months I don’t think you can think as clearly as people who do have that.”
In my view, the biggest priority for everyone, especially if you are a salaried worker, PUT as much money aside. Whatever it takes, even if you have to scrimp and scrape and sacrifice for a short bit. (or even a year or two). Don’t spend stupidly if you can. I feel like throwing up everytime i think about ALL the stupid things i’ve wasted my money on. LITERALLY wasteful. But this is how you learn I guess, you learn the hard way. (And for any WOKE a–hole calling me privileged, I came to the USA 22 years ago with almost no money, literally slept on a friends couch for first few months and had less than 1.3k CANADIAN dollars aka pesos in my bank, with no credit in the 2nd most expensive city in America).
Coupling a 12 months runway of cash in the bank with a low cash burn lifestyle and as many diversified revenue streams as possible IS the only sustainable path to financial freedom. Financial freedom leads to true freedom. It’s taken me a LONG time and lots of pain to get here. But I do not do any work I don’t want to. I pick and choose who I partner with. I don’t do business with anyone I don’t respect or trust. I work wherever and whenever I want. I can say whatever I think without fear of being cancelled in the stupid & spoiled and spoiling West. I’m never going to be put in a position again where I have to tolerate stupidity, incompetence, dishonesty or Bull Sh-t.
I hope everyone gets to experience all of this themselves. But you have to earn it with personal responsibility, discipline and hard work (and a little bit of luck).
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads Apr 17th, 2022
“You have power over your mind - not outside events. Realize this, and you will find strength.”― Marcus Aurelius
I fully agree, we need to bring in more immigrants to America.
"As Japan and many other countries have discovered, a rapidly aging, declining population saps much of the dynamism from an economy, reducing productivity and increasing the number of retirees that each working person has to support. And population shrinkage creates half-abandoned, hollowed-out towns full of despair. To reduce that burden and minimize that despair, we need to keep population growth going at a steady, moderate pace if we can. Refugees, with their proven track record of hard work, are a great way to help do that.
We don’t just owe it to the world to take in refugees — we owe it to ourselves."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/give-us-all-the-refugees-dammit
2. "Honchar describes these technological battles, and Aerorozvidka’s way of fighting, as the future of warfare, in which swarms of small teams networked together by mutual trust and advanced communications can overwhelm a bigger and more heavily armed adversary."
3. Massive implications of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on energy prices and food shortages across the globe.
https://time.com/6160948/global-fallout-russias-invasion-ukraine
4. “However, part of this is not just catching up with demand. Part of it is rebalancing manufacturing. I raised this point five years ago; I said, ‘Think about the fact that we have over 50 percent of our semiconductor manufacturing capacity in regions that are threatened by communist regimes.’ That’s a scary thought, and it’s even scarier today than it was five years ago.
Part of this is also rebalancing because geopolitics has gone nuts in the last couple years, and we don’t know what’s going to happen. Even if we overshoot demand, it’s still going to be important that we have more manufacturing capacity in other regions, especially Europe and North America.”
https://www.eetimes.com/asml-warns-chip-shortages-to-continue-over-next-two-years
5. This is pretty scary stuff. Food prices going way up.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=URwmGeVuztU
6. "History is not a perfect guide for the future, but the bull run of 2020-2021 is indicative of what can happen when the demand shock overwhelms the available amount of bitcoin. If you’re not paying attention to market dynamics, now would be a good time to start watching closely."
https://pomp.substack.com/p/there-is-not-enough-bitcoin-available
7. "The writing is on the wall. Prices have gone up due to massive money printing. Your income is being drained on a relative basis as asset inflation only helps people who are already rich. You can’t afford *not* to take risk.
This flies against conventional wisdom of “just save 10% of take home pay and buy homes/stocks” since that’s not going to be all that easy with high inflation and automation. Better to pivot now and put the pain up front."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/understanding-relative-wealth-and
8. "At the end of each of the three big wars that the US waged in the past 100 years and which it all won, its power peaked, but never so much as at the end of the First War.
That this power was in the subsequent twenty years dissipated and wasted because of many domestic and foreign policy mistakes is a part of the book with which I cannot deal here but is also a part that today’s US policy-makers (if any of them have the intellectual stamina to read Tooze’s book) may well be advised to reflect on."
https://branko2f7.substack.com/p/the-war-for-democracy-and-peace
9. "Putin’s invasion has united the Ukrainian nation as never before. Opinion poll showed 90% plus opposition to the invasion. And it is simply incomprehensible here why the Russian military would bombard Eastern and Southern arrears of Ukraine, mostly Russian speaking, and historically more favourably inclined towards Moscow as reflected in their voting intensions overture past 30 years. Never again.
His intervention has served exactly the opposite of his over-riding purpose which was to bring the Russian and Ukrainian people “back” together, and stopping the constant move West since 1991 and the collapse of the USSR. He has now inevitably accelerated that process. Ukraine will likely become more Western, and will be helped in this process by likely huge Western financial inflows. He has increased the chances of Ukraine’s successful economic and political development and being thereby a model for Russia and Russians - again, exactly the opposite of what he intended.
f) Ukraine might not be a NATO member, but it will continue to re-arm, and now at an accelerated pace. It will increase its ability to resist Russian attacks. And if Russia failed in this invasion it is even less likely to be successful in that regard in the future."
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/is-putin-on-the-brink-of-a-catastrophic
10. "So, if you are an overseas buyer of oil, a tremendous arb opportunity has opened itself up here. If Russia prices its oil at 1bbl=1g gold, a foreign buyer could buy physical gold today at $1915 and send it to Russia for a bbl of oil at $61.57/bbl cost. They could think re-sell this barrel of oil immediately at $103, locking in a $40/bbl arb profit (before shipping, fees, taxes, etc).
What do you suppose would happen as this arb is realize by more and more potential buyers? It is very likely that there will be a run on physical gold in order to continue to buy the discounted barrels of Russia oil either to use internally or to resell for a profit. As the gold price continues to rise, this will further harden the RUB value in FX markets, allowing Russia to use its stronger currency to buy goods that it needs for its domestic economy."
https://3circleinvestments.substack.com/p/quick-oil-to-gold-ratio-math
11. I am so seeing this movie in May!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=giXco2jaZ_4
12. "On their side, Ukrainians have thus far shown an unbroken spirit of resistance, even in the face of a total catastrophe that has displaced a quarter of the country’s population. Moreover, it is not clear where Russia will find reinforcements. The troops already deployed have been living under field conditions for two to three months, and have long since realized that this war is no walk in the park.
Polish military expert Konrad Muzyka notes that the Russians’ troop strength is far too low. According to one widely used military rule of thumb, invaders should have at least three times the military strength of defenders. However, the attackers have compensated for this weakness by escalating the brutality of their tactics in a way that specifically targets the civilian population."
https://www.nzz.ch/english/the-ukraine-wars-first-month-insights-surprises-and-questions-ld.1676210
13. "Now is the time to architect the peace. Take the war in Ukraine. It looks unlikely to go on for much longer given that Russia’s economy cannot support itself let alone this highly disorganized military effort. Even if Russia “wins” in a certain territory, they’ll face an insurgency from hell. Ukrainians have already shown that farm tractors and toy drones can beat tanks and convoys."
"The world should think about the time it will take to rebuild both Ukraine and Russia using traditional banking and finance versus using new technologies. A modern Digital Marshall Plan could work much faster, more cheaply, and with greater effectiveness than the old version, which still remains a masterpiece of policymaking. It would not have to be launched by the United States though."
https://drpippa.substack.com/p/architecting-the-peace-a-digital
14. "So what does the battlefield of the future look like? Perhaps less of a static front, and more like a game of cat-and-mouse, with slow-moving infantry and stealthy drones hunting each other down across a battlefield the size of the whole country. Already, maps of the Ukraine war are starting to look a little bit like this"
"So what lessons can we draw from the weirdness of modern IT-powered warfare, besides simply to marvel at the way technology continues to reshape the nature of human conflict? I think if there’s one lesson here, it’s that we need to be prepared for the surprises that modern warfare will bring.
Instead of continuing to pour money into legacy combat systems treasured by vested interests, our defense department needs to focus on the technologies that are most likely not to prove to be expensive obsolete liabilities in the event of a real war. The Marines, who gave up their tanks, might be showing the way here."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/war-got-weird
15. "So long as Putin stays in power the alienation of Ukraine from Russia is complete and it will integrate more with the West. So long as Ukrainian territory is occupied severe sanctions will stay in place and the Ukrainians will keep up the pressure on any new cease-fire line that leaves their territory under Russian control. Their army is no longer one that Russia dare underestimate. The problems of governing and controlling this territory will be immense. They have destroyed those they were going to save. Their prize from the war will be shattered and depopulated town and cities, with those still in residence sullen and hostile, ready to resist and support insurgencies.
This is why taking Donbas is not a satisfactory consolation prize for Putin, let alone for those hardliners demanding that he stick to his maximalist objectives. It is simply a recipe for continued instability, turning Putin’s folly of 2014 into an even greater catastrophe, serving as a continuing drain on Russia’s dwindling economic and military resources.
In all the searches for a peace settlement it is hard to avoid the conclusion that there are no good outcomes for Russia from this war. It has inflicted massive human, political, and economic costs on itself, as well as on Ukraine. Nothing that Moscow can now achieve can outweigh those costs. If he is unable to muster a final offensive to achieve his original aims there is no formula that will enable Putin to pretend that this has all been worthwhile and he has achieved exactly what was intended. As Igor Girkin has observed, he will have lost as completely as he once hoped to win."
https://samf.substack.com/p/the-problem-with-the-donbas
16. "Beyond the potentially long-lasting loss of its traditional export customers, Russia’s oil industry has also been severed from much of the global capital market and lost access to many of the key sources of oilfield expertise, from ties cut with former joint-ventures (Shell, Exxon, etc.) and equity stakes (BP) to the withdrawal of major oilfield services companies. It’s going to be immensely difficult, if not impossible, for Russian petroleum engineers to prevent a collapse in crude production, let alone grow output anytime soon.
All of the above considerations are specifically about Russian oil supply—this is without even beginning to factor for everything else going on in the 2022 oil market. The prospect of demand destruction stemming from China’s increasingly severe COVID lockdowns, the US shale patch’s short-circuiting economic response function, OPEC+ coming to the end of its COVID-era deal, the potential easing of sanctions on Iran and Venezuela, and Russia’s months-long throttling back of Kazakh oil exports on the CPC pipeline to repair “storm damage”: these will all have considerable, and still-yet-unknown, impacts to global oil balances, too."
https://commoditycontext.substack.com/p/oils-russia-sized-hole-pt1
17. "The entertainment value of Masa Son’s antics aside, we flag these events because of their potentially systemic nature, and as a warning for what the consequences might be if he is ever forced to play this game in reverse.
As anyone with experience in the VC sector can attest, Masa Son threw around so much money to so many startups at such eye-watering valuations that most other VC firms were forced to follow suit, creating a self-reinforcing pattern of ever-higher valuation comparisons as the basis for the pricing of the next hot deal. We suspect the bubble in the private sector is even bigger than the one transpiring in the public markets."
https://doomberg.substack.com/p/crouching-tiger-hidden-problems
18. Super impressive hustle here. This is a good dude.
"He often uses the analogy of a jet plane to explain the work he put in on Twitter. When a jet plane takes off, it uses 70% of its fuel to get off the ground. Once it’s off the ground and going, it’s just coasting.
“Eleven hundred meetings, that was that 70%,” Conwell said. “All that initial energy to get up off the ground.”
https://technical.ly/startups/rarebreed-ventures-mac-conwell-twitter
19. "Overall, China is much more comfortable talking about physical and economic reconstruction, as it did when it offered to build roads for the Taliban regime last year. But cash alone is not going to settle the Ukraine situation. As its relative distance from the current talks in Istanbul have shown, China is not yet ready to step up as a prominent mediator with a democratic state, just as Western actors have sometimes struggled in the past to deal with hybrid or semi-authoritarian states."
https://unherd.com/2022/04/will-china-rebuild-ukraine
20. Good synopsis on the new, critical & probably more brutal phase of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
21. Yikes.....Still early days so you can't write these guys off yet but lesson is hype is good but you gotta deliver on it in the long run. (Actually they are toast now as of posting)
"The San Francisco–based Fast, which launched its one-click service in 2020, tried to win by signing up small merchants. Its main startup rival, Bolt, launched its service in 2018 with a different strategy: landing large customers including Lucky Jeans and Nautica. The startups’ financial results have diverged: Last year, Fast generated around $600,000 in revenue, three people with knowledge of the numbers said, while The Information previously reported that Bolt generated roughly 50 times that figure.
And when Fast late last year tried to raise a $100 million Series C financing at a valuation north of $1 billion, it didn’t find any takers at the time, a person with direct knowledge of the matter said."
https://www.theinformation.com/articles/why-stripes-fast-horse-is-losing-the-one-click-checkout-race
22. Another great episode here. Well worth listening to.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nZOeRDO1Z8s
23. Incredibly good analysis on the Russian army invading Ukraine. Debunks the myth that Russia is holding back their best units: net net Russia is losing & losing badly.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Lem3enNkbV0
24. "One thing this attack has done is strengthen the identity and pride of the Ukrainian people – at home and the diaspora abroad. Myself included.
The beauty of the land and cities, the richness of the culture, the amazing food, the artistic pursuits, the technical and engineering caliber of the people … it cannot be broken.
Ukraine is a land with a tumultuous past of being ruled by others, with identity being suffocated. But it continued quietly – through art, through whispers, and the privacy of peoples homes."
https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/slava-ukrayini
25. An excellent sales guide I wish I had when I first started.
“You start selling when the prospect meets ALL these criteria:
There is a clear Emotional Pain and you (and the prospect) know
HOW MUCH it is costing them. We call this Quantifiable Pain and there can be many of them happening simultaneously in the business.
They WANT to and are MOTIVATED to resolve their Pain. No point in selling to someone who doesn’t WANT to fix their problems!
They can AFFORD to resolve their Pain. We’re not running a soup kitchen here. They must have money or we leave. Simple!
If the prospect is missing any one of these key criteria then they are not qualified."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/the-chronicles-of-a-chad-salesman
Celebrate When It’s Over: Complacency Kills and Paranoia Wins
I’m long term optimistic about Ukraine winning against Russia in the long run. But what worries me is the over optimism while the war continues.
On Day 50 of the heinous Russian invasion, in an interview with The Atlantic Magazine, President Zelensky of Ukraine was reported to have said:
“The optimism that many Americans and Europeans—and even some Ukrainians—are currently expressing is unjustified. If the Russians are not expelled from Ukraine’s eastern provinces, Zelensky said, “they can return to the center of Ukraine and even to Kyiv. It is possible. Now is not yet the time of victory.” Ukraine can win—and by “win,” he means continue to exist as a sovereign, if permanently besieged, state—only if its allies in Washington and across Europe move with alacrity to sufficiently arm the country. “We have a very small window of opportunity,” he said.”
He is absolutely correct. Momentum shifts oh so very quickly in war, in games and in life.
Business & Sports seem very trite when it is compared to a war situation of life and death & freedom versus oppression. But the lessons still hold.
You celebrate the deal when the contract has been signed. You celebrate the fund raise not when the term sheet is signed but when the money hits your bank account. Keep following up and keep the pressure on. Do not let up.
How many times have you seen some sports team far ahead in the lead. Then they get over confident, cocky and start to slack off. The opposing team comes from behind to win the game.
A little paranoia goes a long way. I am all for optimism but I’ve seen that too many times optimism turns to complacency, or maybe worse, overconfidence, which then quickly turns into loss. You end up seizing defeat from the jaws of victory. Don’t do that!
Keep pushing on your momentum. Treat it like the small window of opportunity that it is. Velocity is universal in all the best people and companies I’ve known. Keep grinding and don’t let up until it is done.
You’ve done the hard work of rolling the boulder up most of the hill already, might as well take it all the way to the top.
Facing Your Fears: The True Underlying Reasons for Your Bad Decisions and Bad Behavior
Looking back at moments in your life there are always moments you regret. And if you are truly honest, it’s usually your fault. The wrong thing said, a reaction or overreaction that makes the situation worse. It always worked out in the end but these moments certainly were self inflicted problems.
If you look deep, it’s always driven by fear. There are many different kinds of fear: fear of the unknown, fear of change, fear of not being accepted (socially that is), fear of poverty, fear of not being loved, so many kinds of fear. I personally cannot believe that it’s taken me to my late 40s to figure this out. In fact, most people never figure it out. Ever. If you cannot find out what the big fears are in your life, you can’t fix it. These fears become your limits in life.
When I was younger it was a fear of not being accepted. But as I’ve grown older, traveled and lived in many different places, this has lessened. And it helps that I live in a place full of ambitious nerds and self proclaimed contrarians, I don’t feel like this is an issue anymore. I found my tribe.
But I still have two major themes of fears throughout my life:
1) the fear of poverty ie. lack of money, which would threaten my independence +not being able to take care of myself and my family
2) the fear of not being taken seriously or not being respected.
Almost all my issues and challenges have come from this. They are both the biggest drivers of my motivation and behavior. On the reverse side, they are the root cause of my bad reactions to setbacks.
I remember when I faced my economic challenges in 2020, or even any big frustrations at work or my business, the rage I would feel would be all consuming. The “lack of money” fear in my brain.
Or one time back in 2019, I was with my family after taking a friend out for lunch, as we were driving her home, we stopped across a crosswalk and this old white couple basically yelled some racial slurs at us. I literally saw red to the point, I almost stepped out of the car to confront them if my family had not calmed me down. All stemming from the fear of being disrespected.
Fear easily turns into anger. In fact, anger is almost always the human reaction to fear. Anger feels empowering but it’s so destructive in civilized society. We are no different than animals. Dogs or other animals attack and bite you because of the fear they feel when they are surprised by you. You can never get rid of fear as it’s a wired human behavioral tool that has gotten us and our ancestors here but you have to face it. This is why it’s so critical to learn, manage and channel this.
It always goes back to the Dune quote:
“I must not fear. Fear is the mind-killer. Fear is the little-death that brings total obliteration. I will face my fear. I will permit it to pass over me and through me. And when it has gone past I will turn the inner eye to see its path. Where the fear has gone there will be nothing. Only I will remain.”
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads Apr 10th, 2022
“Scars are not signs of weakness, they are signs of survival and endurance.”- Rodney A Winters
"The #1 lesson of Europe’s natural gas dependence is this: European governments have wildly overestimated the ability of solar and wind to provide the energy they need and wildly underestimated the need for fossil fuels and nuclear to provide the energy they need.
If Europe’s level of dependence on Russia for natural gas scares you, know this: America is even more dependent on China for many of the key components of solar panels, wind turbines, and batteries than Europe is on Russia for natural gas.
The energy impotence and vulnerability to Russia caused by Europe’s solar-and-wind mandating, fossil-fuel-and-nuclear restricting policies should be a wake-up call to the US."
https://alexepstein.substack.com/p/europes-energy-security-crisis
2. Very familiar and bullish on this region overall too. Public stocks and startup investments too for me.
"The EMEA region is sort of everything between the Americas and Asia, but our focus within that is Central and Eastern Europe, Middle East, and Africa. This is very broad and very diverse geographically, but not as evenly developed in terms of capital markets. Some countries in this region don't even have a stock market yet, but you also have Poland in there, which is now ranked as a developed country."
3. "Tech: The entire point of technology is to remove the need for human effort: 1) robots = replace assembly line workers and warehouse workers;
2) software = replaces need for administrative assistants, basic accounting and even physical areas like conferences rooms due to zoom;
3) computers = replaced type writers, a large amount of mail delivery now called “snail mail” and
4) the combination of all these innovations - software, computer chips and “robots” creates self driving vehicles which replace drivers.
While these are all simple examples, over the long-term it’s practically impossible to argue that we’ll use less technology and go back to the “olden days”
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/mapping-out-the-future
4. Another reason for why understanding Russia's atrocious invasion of Ukraine is important.
"For years, this neon has also mostly come from Ukraine, where just two companies purify enough to produce devices for much of the world, usually with little issue. At least, they did until Russia invaded.
Faced with the devastating reality of war, Ukraine’s neon industry halted production.
There will be ripple effects, though. Semiconductor manufacturers rely on neon to control the specialized lasers they use to make computer chips. Right now, it’s not clear whether they have enough time to find and develop new sources of this gas before their backup supplies run out: Chip companies and industry analysts say there’s anywhere between one to six months worth of neon in reserve.
If that runs out, these companies won’t be able to make semiconductors. This means that the worldwide chip shortage — which was expected to end sometime in the next year or so — could draw out even longer, leading to higher prices, delivery delays, and shortages of critical technology.
“Whether it’s electronics, cars, computers, phones, new airplanes, anything you can think of has a semiconductor chip,”
https://www.vox.com/recode/22983468/neon-shortage-chips-semiconductors-russia-ukraine
5. This is a pretty dark take on everything on the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
I really hope he is wrong but it does seem like Russia is not going to stop & will leave Ukraine in total rubble.
I worry because this is the Russian way of war from the last 90 years.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bmtwYizIfxc&t=172s
6. "We don’t really have a precedent for what’s currently happening. This weaponization of money and finance has never been so effective, and thus, so useful in periods of war. But we also need to think about what that same weaponization means for the rules that oversee society in periods beyond war.
We’re setting a dangerous precedent against the true value of private property and the rule of law during a period of time that will likely be studied in the books of history by future generations. Independently of what we think about the freezing of Russia’s foreign reserves, about going after Russian oligarch’s assets, or using the power of financial services to isolate a group of Canadians from society and stop a protest in a developed economy – the most important idea to highlight is that the weaponization of money, reserves, and the monetary system has increased everyone’s discount rate of their assets and savings.
Remember, ‘temporary’ changes to the rule of law during times of crisis have rarely remained temporary. Governments have no incentive to give back power once they’ve claimed it.
Financially speaking, the increased weaponization of money forces countries, households, and corporations, to look for alternative ways to store value whilst simultaneously avoiding mediums that can be easily confiscated by adversarial countries or institutions."
https://www.thelykeion.com/the-weaponization-of-money-and-finance
7. "That said, there are three Ukraine scenarios which currently seem most likely. The first — which is both the most tragic and the most probable — is that this war continues for many months. The second possibility — put it at maybe 30 per cent — is that there is a peace settlement. The third scenario — which is perhaps 10 per cent — is that there is some sort of political upheaval in Russia, involving the overthrow of President Vladimir Putin and a new approach to Ukraine.
The long, grinding war scenario assumes that neither Russia nor Ukraine is now capable of achieving total victory and that neither is prepared to concede defeat. Putin is fighting to save his political life and the Ukrainians are fighting to save their country."
https://www.ft.com/content/63fc662c-098d-4263-b69b-34d55c9f5e0a
8. I am praying everyday for Ukrainian victory & that the war ends soon. #StandwithUkraine
"The evidence that Ukraine is winning this war is abundant, if one only looks closely at the available data. The absence of Russian progress on the front lines is just half the picture, obscured though it is by maps showing big red blobs, which reflect not what the Russians control but the areas through which they have driven.
The failure of almost all of Russia’s airborne assaults, its inability to destroy the Ukrainian air force and air-defense system, and the weeks-long paralysis of the 40-mile supply column north of Kyiv are suggestive. Russian losses are staggering—between 7,000 and 14,000 soldiers dead, depending on your source, which implies (using a low-end rule of thumb about the ratios of such things) a minimum of nearly 30,000 taken off the battlefield by wounds, capture, or disappearance.
Such a total would represent at least 15 percent of the entire invading force, enough to render most units combat ineffective. And there is no reason to think that the rate of loss is abating—in fact, Western intelligence agencies are briefing unsustainable Russian casualty rates of a thousand a day."
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/03/ukraine-is-winning-war-russia/627121
9. Super bullish on Agfunder of course! Batch 12! Congrats Rob & Team!
10. Totally agree with this assessment.
"The libertarian in me still needs to use “USD/Woke Capital” to live life, but most of my future is stored in startup investing, alternative financing and crypto.
We are (unfortunately) just getting started.
I am immensely grateful to be on the side of history well-positioned for economic, spiritual, and intellectual prosperity."
11. This is worth watching to understand the implications of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Pomp does a great job interviewing Zeihan.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5-r7z0lM5_k
12. Yikes! Food prices are going up sadly.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mvltNWuDno0
13. I am hopeful that Ukraine will come out of the Russian war of aggression victorious. I am looking forward to helping the country rebuild better than before. Good economic prescriptions for the country after the war ends (pray its sooner rather than later). Slava Ukraini!
"Certainly after the shooting stops, the first order of business — and the task of several years — will be to rebuild the parts of the country torn down by Putin’s assault. Cities like Mariupol and Kharkiv are being reduced to rubble, much of the country’s infrastructure is being torn up, and about a quarter of the entire population has been displaced.
It took Japan and Germany both slightly over a decade after the end of WW2 to reach the level of income they had enjoyed before the war. Ukraine hopefully won’t be in quite such bad shape after this conflict, but this isn’t going to be the kind of thing a country bounces back from in 1 or 2 years.
Ukrainians will work very hard to rebuild their country, but they’re going to need help. And given the U.S. and Europe’s copious military assistance, it seems likely that they’ll offer rebuilding assistance as well. In fact, the EU has just started setting up a postwar reconstruction fund, and the U.S. has already spent $13 billion helping the Ukrainians.
Both the U.S. and EU leadership know that they can’t afford to have a weak, economically backward Ukraine as the first line of defense against a newly malevolent Russia, and the Ukrainians’ cause has resonated deeply with the U.S. and EU populations alike. So expect copious economic aid to flow for at least a decade.
In any case, the models of Poland and South Korea seem like they provide the best examples for Ukraine to try to copy after the war. And indeed, Ukraine should invite advisors in from both countries. In this troubled age, democracies have to look out for each other’s economic interests as well as military ones."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/ukraines-economic-future
14. A perspective from a US army vet and writer I think very highly of.
"The United States needs to step up to protect a free and functioning democracy in Ukraine. As a combat veteran, I’ll choose this war over 20 years in Afghanistan and Iraq with no purpose behind it. Critics will point to Ukraine and say its democracy is flawed and corruption is rampant, but I would just reply, “Can you name a Democracy that isn’t?”
https://sofrep.com/news/americas-bite-bigger-than-bark-time-to-enter-war-in-ukraine
15. "Tamerlane is always over the horizon, waiting to strike. There will always be conquerors waiting for the chance to conquer and pillage the soft civilized nations of the world. If you think Tamerlane is ancient history, just look up Pol Pot, Joseph Kony, Hitler, etc. This is a recurrent phenomenon. The only thing that can protect people against the Tamerlanes of the world is a strong, economically prosperous, well-organized nation state.
And the only way you get a strong, economically prosperous, well-organized nation state is to have a strong, centralized government that provides lots of public goods. Roads, ports, schools, technological R&D. You need these things because everything we know about economic development says that these things are absolutely essential for a nation to have a high GDP. And a high GDP is necessary for a nation to win wars with hypothetical Tamerlanes.
This is why modern American libertarianism is so very, very flawed. The ideology professes to value liberty above all else, but it ignores the dynamic aspect."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/the-tamerlane-principle
16. Even if this is half right....wow.....
"A senior administration official told reporters that independent assessments indicate Russia’s last 15 years of economic gains will evaporate this year and inflation will spike to 15%.
Russia, which had the world’s 11th largest economy before the invasion, will fall out of the top 20, according to the official. At the same time, the official said, sanctions are cutting off all sources of potential growth, including blocking Russia from purchasing cutting-edge technology."
https://news.yahoo.com/biden-meet-nato-european-leaders-074514058.html
17. Good stuff here on what’s happening in Crypto.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bJtTytoMfGM&t=694s
18. This is an amazing discussion on what’s happening in the tech industry public & private markets.
These guys are sharp and it’s a damn insightful conversation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LNTXao9AZB4
19. A frontline perspective of the war in Ukraine from BBC journalists.
"The war has changed everything for Ukraine, and for Russia. The world now feels more dangerous. Whatever happens on the battlefields of Ukraine, it is clear after a month that the Russian invasion is the biggest threat to international peace and security since the end of the Cold War.
Its consequences are already being felt beyond the borders of Ukraine, in the shape of European security, the politics of the Nato alliance and the growing pressure on economies and food supplies. UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres warned this week that disruption to Ukraine and Russia's agricultural exports could increase world hunger."
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60874223
20. This is sad that this is happening. Musicians turned soldiers in Ukraine. It does not seem right.
“Being honest,” he adds, “I can’t say I miss music now. At all. I miss peace. When we’ll get it — then I’ll think about music.”
"Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has upended and ravaged the nation in innumerable ways. The country’s thriving, eclectic music scene hasn’t been immune: Musicians have fled or gone underground, venues have closed, festivals are up in the air. But the most striking transformation involves those who have been transformed overnight from creatives to soldiers.
Although it’s impossible to ascertain a precise number, everyone from metal, rock, and folk musicians to electronic DJs has put aside their day jobs and taken up arms against an invading force. “You’re leaving your home and your family,” says Boole from western Ukraine, where he is stationed. “Suddenly you discover yourself in a completely unknown place. New rules, strict discipline, new people. A bit different surrounding [than] I got used to from working as a musician.”
21. "We believe we are at the onset of a global famine of historic proportions. In a staggering defiance of logic, many US politicians are still attacking the lifeblood of our own energy production infrastructure, looking to score political points against “the other team,” blaming price-taking producers of global commodities for gouging, threatening producers of energy with windfall profits taxes, resisting calls to remove bureaucratic hurdles to new production, and refusing to open an introductory physics textbook to help guide them through the suite of policy choices that require true leadership to get right. They remain stuck in an endless loop of platitudes, blamestorming, corruption, and ignorance.
As Eisenhower aptly identifies in our opening quote, distance has an anesthetizing effect on the observer of any occurrence. One wonders how many people will starve before our politicians get serious. The populations most at risk of falling off the edge are half a world away and we worry that that number is uncomfortably high."
https://doomberg.substack.com/p/farmers-on-the-brink
22. I hope this leads to the end of the war soon.
"An assessment from the Institute for the Study of War found that Ukrainian forces had forced Russian troops into defensive positions, while Putin's forces had "continued to settle in for a protracted and stalemated conflict."
Ryan said the Russian army "has a huge personnel problem."
"There is no significant military unit left in Russia outside of Ukraine. They are all in the fight," he said.
"There is almost no part of the Russian military that's not dedicated, committed to Ukraine, so if he has to escalate, how does he escalate?" he added, referring to Putin.
At this point, Ryan said it would be "impossible" for Russia to take control of all Ukraine like Putin hoped to.
"He does not have the military forces to take all of Ukraine and occupy it," Ryan said, adding: "Russian leadership overestimated what their military was capable of."
https://news.yahoo.com/putin-soon-no-choice-stop-150314332.html
23. This is the hard lesson: don't get high on your own supply. Relevant whether you are a dictator, CEO or leader of any organization. Who and where you get your info is important. Criticism is not always a bad thing.
"The information environment that a leader builds in any context can succumb to this dynamic. But if you’re operating in a broader authoritarian context, then there are no checks on that. That’s the worst of every world. It’s the perfect storm for dictators, because they insulate themselves from criticism internally. But then they also, as a result of their strategies to maintain power among the population, also remove criticism externally."
24. This is an interesting take on the new world of war we are in. An Economic one.
Granted, author seems to be a gold bug so that’s the bias. But it's definitely an orthogonal view here. Not sure I agree with his conclusion but worth reading.
25. "Their maximalist strategy of swiftly capturing Kyiv and regime change has no chance of occurring. The second plan is to break morale through protracted sieges, the encirclement of cities and the occupation of enough Ukrainian land to force concessions. The Russian army has proven to be unable to take any major cities outside of the strategically advantageous southeast. Kharkiv and Sumy remain under Ukrainian control. Kyiv stands. Kherson, which was taken, is now contested. Western intelligence estimates 40,000 Russian casualties (15k killed). Prominent military officials in the Kremlin have been missing for weeks. Time is not on their side, and they know it.
So, make no mistake, this is most definitely an improvised plan B to accommodate for the woeful underperformance of Russia and exceptional Ukrainian defence so far. The new plan: annexation of land by any means necessary, be it empty or full.
this is most definitely Russia’s suicide via Ukraine; the question is now only of a timeframe. What we should focus on is: what is Russia’s appetite for punishment, and how much does it value the soon-to-be desolate wasteland of the Novorossiya it is trying to build? Can plan B deliver Putin a quick victory to save face? Can Putin even survive a Plan B, even if it is successful?"
https://stefankr.substack.com/p/the-second-phase
26. "Q? So where is this conflict going now?
Answer - it seems as though Putin will focus on Donbas, and encircling the 40-50,000 Ukrainians troops in the JFO. He hopes to devastate the JFO, while engaging in long range artillery and missile strikes against Ukrainian cities to sap confidence. His troops around Kyiv are digging in for the long haul but surely are vulnerable to insurgent attacks, with supply lines stretched.
Likely Putin hopes the destruction of the JFO and the attacks on cities will eventually force the Ukrainian leadership to concede defeat.
I also expect Russia to hit Western supply routes into Ukraine to try and dry up arms deliveries that are the life line of Ukrainian defenders.
But it is now clear that Russia cannot take he whole of Ukraine, or even Kyiv. A free Ukraine will endure, remain, even if Russia continues to occupy large swathes of Ukrainian territory for some time to come. The free Ukrainian territory will be a strident buffer against Russia - supported by the West. It will be exactly the anti Putin’s Russia that the Russian President fears."
Rise of the Marcher Lords: Danger from the Edges & the Importance of Environment
Everyone must have seen the amazing Dune movie in 2021. Based on one of the best science fiction books ever written (Frank Herbert if anyone is asking). The story is about noblemen in an intergalactic empire fighting for supremacy on the planet of Dune where the spice that drives all commerce on the galaxy, This was loosely based on the historic Arabic Muslim conquests and expansion in the 7th century across the globe. What struck me was the focus on the tough forbidding environment that Dune represented. A harsh & unforgiving desert environment where only the strong survive. This was represented by the Fremen who the protagonist was able to rally and turn into a fierce, empire-dominating army. Their counterparts were the Emperor’s elite military Sardaukar who lived and trained on the prison death world of Salusa Secundus, another brutal and harsh environment.
As a history major and buff, we’ve seen something similar throughout human history. Steppes Nomads, Vikings from desolate Scandinavia, the Spanish during the several hundred year Reconquista wars, the Border Reivers on the Scottish & English frontiers in the 13th to 17th century, the Arabs in the Middle East who led the great Islamic Expansion in the 7th Century, the Turks and the countless steppes nomads who attacked civilized Europe and the Middle east pretty much since the beginning of time. I’d also add the Comanches who dominated Southwest America & Northern Mexico during the 18th and 19th century. These folks were so badass that they decimated and terrified the super tough Apache indians for example.
The universal aspect to all these folks: they lived in harsh environments with very few resources, surrounded by other hostile competitors. They were forced to develop very effective hunting and scouting skills that are easily transferable to self defense and war. They either got good fast or died fast. Literally only the toughest survived and thrived. Then think about what happened when they left this hostile territory, and run into gentrified city folk in very prosperous and rich territories. No surprise they ended up dominating. It was like a hot knife through butter. This was also why you saw through history of most empires, many of the people who became Kings or Emperors of big empires rarely came from the center. They came from the edges of the empire or the frontier, they are just harder and tougher. They are what the British called Marcher lords, tough hardy men who ruled the frontiers & rose up by their ability and strength.
In the present day: I don’t think you will meet anyone tougher than Koreans, Ukrainians, Russians and Mongols in my opinion. They live in really hard environments weather wise that lead them to becoming pretty tough too. Awful winters and usually pretty damn hot summers too. This leads to some physically hardy people. Topping these folks are the Chechens who were only defeated by the Russians who co-opted some of their leaders. For my money, I don’t think there are any tougher people in the world than Afghans who have pretty much defeated all the great powers throughout History: Persians, Macedonians, Mongols, British, Russians under Soviet Union and now America. The place has become the literal graveyard of empires.
So as usual, where am I going with this besides some random observations? I think this is highly relevant to your career & business. Who and where you play and compete with matters. If you grow up in a very competitive environment, you will probably do better in life in the long run. Go up against the best, you will get good faster than someone at your own level. This is why I push my kid to train with better kung fu students and play with better “Go” players. Yes, you will get your ass kicked but if you keep on showing up, you will get better. Much better and will grow on a steeper slope.
It’s why, at least in the past prior to the pandemic, if you wanted to compete as an investor or startup founder in tech, you came to Silicon Valley. This is the same as being in Hedge Funds and Investments, the place to be is Wall Street. Or Hollywood for the Entertainment industry. This was where the best were & where you can absorb the most knowledge and skills. This is obviously changing in the post pandemic as talent diffuses in the remote work world but the point still stands.
But this is not the end point, as I wrote in “Playing Against Rubes” (https://hardfork.substack.com/p/play-against-rubes), paraphrasing Peter Thiel, competition in the long run is for losers. Competition is great to hone your skills and get good fast. But then you want to take these skills and use it to dominate in a less competitive market. This is kind of what’s happening. We see many Silicon Valley VCs like Kleiner Perkins, Sequoia, Lightspeed, General Catalyst, Tiger Global showing up in Europe in last few years and bringing all the skills, network, value add and frankly much more aggressive attitude to getting into deals (and more founder friendly one to boot) to a somewhat sleepy & fragmented ecosystem dominated by local incumbent investors unused to competition. No wonder we read many articles and blog posts decrying “The Americans are Coming” (for those who don’t get the reference, during the American Revolution, Paul Revere rode through town rallying the local militia, yelling “The British are Coming, The British are Coming!)
So go to the most competitive center of action, be prepared to grind for a period of time, develop some hard, solid skills and leverage these in another market or industry. Do this and you will develop your own “Personal Monopoly” in time.
The Death Zone and the Will to Win: Why Big Companies and Old Powers Lose
I’ve long been a follower and fan of Balaji S. Srinavasan. He is one of the most thoughtful and forward thinking people from Silicon Valley. What is also interesting is that he’s moved away from the USA to Singapore and India. As the ultimate sovereign Individual, you vote with your feet and your money.
I listen to all his interviews and writings and he is very negative on the United States and much more optimistic about China & India. This is in comparison to my other favorite geopolitical thinker Peter Zeihan who is bullish on the USA & India but negative on China. The lens that both of them look through definitely affects this: Zeihan looks at things through hard power, demographics and geography. Balaji looks at things through everything with a media and technology lens. I think they are both correct.
So where am I going with this? As much as I hate to hear, and it really pains me but Balaji will ultimately be right. Yes, the United States has a huge advantage when it comes to people, military spending, natural resources, energy and food. Additionally the USA has a geography far away from enemies & separated by 2 oceans and bordered by two massive, dependent, friendly and demographically complementary countries (Mexico and Canada for the geographically challenged).
The United States should be they hyperpower on paper but due to gross incompetence, military overreach in being bogged down in Iraq and Afghanistan. Not having faced any major threats since 1989, we as a country have become arrogant and complacent (and allowed our peer competitors like Russia & China to come to the fore). That is why internally we see the rise of “woke” culture, millennials whining about “safe spaces” & security. We’ve turned against ourselves. Basically, because we have not had any major hardships for the last 20-30 years in America, it has turned us soft.
And if you think I have issues with this upcoming generation in America, don’t ask me what I think of the same generation in Western Europe (outside of the immigrant kids of course). This is also why I spend so much more time investing and working in Eastern Europe, these kids know hardship. Remember the Soviet Union only 32 years ago and that was a VERY tough decade or two after. Consequently the work ethic is strong and complacency low.
But unlike China or Russia, who face tremendous issues in demographics, food, energy, and tough geography being surrounded in their view by perceived enemies; it puts them into a death zone. It’s like that old saying, “Nothing concentrates the mind, like your execution in the morning.”
The major constraints have forced them to husband and manage their meager hard resources better. Using a poker analogy, China and Russia are playing weak hands really well, while the USA is playing their strong hands badly. And what we will learn is that resources are not the most critical factor in winning. Its morale, unity, focus, competence and culture. Whatever you think of the Chinese Communist Party or Russian Siloviki (Men of Iron, technocrats and ex-KGB officers) leadership, these are for the most part highly competent & ruthlessly effective people. (I should note here: I viscerally hate these people personally. Whatever issues I have with the United States, which are plenty, I much prefer a world order led by the USA than by China. A CCP China exemplifies anti-privacy, anti-democratic & anti-freedom values that go against almost everything we believe and live). In their minds, they are on the death ground and believe failure literally will lead to their deaths or imprisonment.
You cannot compare them to the grossly incompetent people we have running the United States or in Western Europe right now in all sectors of the government, who have little to fear from failure or seem to fail up. We can’t build anything anywhere, our infrastructure is creaking, we can’t win wars despite all the money and lives we’ve spent. We can’t get unified or behind anything. These are not good signals for our future. We are living the G. Michael Hopf’s famous quote: “Hard times create strong men. Strong men create good times. Good times create weak men. And, weak men create hard times.”
Using this analogy to startups and big companies, this is why I never worry about the big incumbents like the FAANGs (Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Google + Amazon) coming in to compete in any of my Startups spaces or sectors. There is a massive level of risk and reward that a startup team has over the big company. There is also a sense of urgency when you know every hour, every day and every dollar counts. You live in a world of “Extremistan”: massive downside which focuses the mind, but also massive upside if you execute in the right direction. It’s literally “No Pain, No Gain.”
This is in contrast with those working at big companies that have massive cash cow business and a lot of processes and multiple departments/committees to make decisions. They have it pretty easy. No one is going to push too hard or stick their neck out. There is no death zone and there is no upside for them. And this is why they just can’t compete. It’s not even a fair comparison, it’s like comparing US Navy SEALS against the US Coast Guard.
I’d pick a smaller, focused, motivated, properly incentivized team over a big company any day of the week. The will to fight really matters. Just take a look at our outnumbered & outgunned Ukrainian friends kicking Russian army ass. As they say, “it’s not the size of the dog in the fight, it’s the size of the fight in the dog.”
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads Apr 3rd, 2022
“Endurance is not just the ability to bear a hard thing but to turn it into glory.”- William Barclay
This does not seem like the message or tone of someone winning.
https://news.yahoo.com/putin-warns-russia-against-pro-162351239.html
2. I hope much sooner than May (2 months from now) but I guess we will see.
"Ending the war sooner means a loss of prestige, domestic legitimacy hit, and no maximalist goals in Ukraine. Advancing means loss of economic power, draining military, loss of morale at home.
The question now for Russia is, “how much is too much? How little is too little?” They clearly cannot obtain their maximalist goals of complete regime change but will have to find an optimal way to balance domestic legitimacy, international prestige, economy, and military goals. This is a difficult position for the Kremlin.
All peace is won from the conditions on the battlefields of economy, military, and political will. And not all peace is equal. When assessing the ongoing development of the war, we should remain mindful of these facts. The Ukrainians are fighting for peace that will allow for a meaningful future with the European Union without further Russian interference.
Putin is fighting to impose certain political outcomes, but the question for him now is: when to stop? All areas of the analysis show that it will be sooner than later; I personally expect peace by May."
https://stefekrajic.substack.com/p/when-to-stop
3. This is a very good overview of PLG principles. Well worth spending your time on reviewing.
https://www.bvp.com/atlas/10-product-led-growth-principles
4. "The Putin Triple Punch reminds me of Mohamed Ali’s insight that “everyone has a plan till they get punched in the face”. The timing was both perfect and not random. The West faces record debt, record credit risk, fast-rising inflation and central banks that have no ammo left. What better time to throw a punch? What the West is still working out, though is how bad the damage is. My view is that Putin has quite deliberately set the stage for a famine.
We can already see the early signals of famine. The high oil prices caused by Western sanctions and saying no to Russian energy exports automatically raises the cost of both fertilizer and food delivery. Food prices were already screaming upwards even before that. The association of truck drivers in Italy announced a stoppage. They were very clear. This is not about wages. The problem is that they simply cannot make any money delivering food when the oil price is so high. The Italian grocery stores are already self-rationing spaghetti as a result. The Italian livestock growers have already announced that they will start culling animals in another few weeks because the cost of feedstock (wheat/grain) is so high.
Why have wheat prices skyrocketed? Russia and Ukraine are the 5th and 4th largest producers of wheat in the world."
https://drpippa.substack.com/p/the-bleeding-victor-part-one
5. "During the unfolding of this new global financial crisis, if you are serious about what the future holds monetarily for the various global factions, reading Zoltan Pozsar’s missives is non-negotiable. He is a money markets and rates strategist for Credit Suisse and pairs an excellent understanding of the intricate plumbing of global money markets with a clear and concise writing style. I don’t know if he coined the terms “Inside Money” and “Outside Money,” but I rather like how simple yet informative these descriptions of money and collateral are.
Inside Money are monetary instruments that exist as liabilities on another player’s balance sheet. A government bond is a liability of the sovereign, but an asset in the banking system that trades like cash depending on the credit quality of the issuer.
Outside Money are instruments that are not liabilities on another player’s balance sheet. Gold and Bitcoin are perfect examples.
The current PetroDollar / EuroDollar monetary system ended last week with the confiscation of the Russian Central Bank’s fiat currency reserves by the US and EU, and the removal of certain Russian banks from the SWIFT network. In a generation hence, when hopefully this sad episode of human history concludes, historians will point to 26 February 2022 as the date on which this system ended, and a new, currently unknown-to-us system sprouted."
https://cryptohayes.medium.com/energy-cancelled-e9f9e53a50cd
6. "But the Russian side will be looking to encourage bondholders to lobby the UST to lift the sanctions on the CBR to ensure payment.
I just don’t see what OFAC would do this. It’s in Russia’s interest to pay as if they don’t they will go into default and that would have costs and consequences on Russia for a very long time. Indeed, Russia could be paying for their decision not to pay for a decade to come in low ratings, higher borrowing costs, lower investment, lower growth and lower living standards. And for Putin that could ultimately mean social unrest domestically challenging his regime - he already looks to be losing this war."
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/russian-debt-to-pay-or-not-pay
7. "It feels like it is turning point time for this conflict, Putin has to either bow to peace talks, and even the leaked Russian version of 15-point peace plan suggested not much of a win given the costs now to Russia. Or he has to double up.
The key military pressure point now seems to be Western arms supplies to Ukraine, as even the lower tech Javelins, Manpads, Stingers etc have proven highly effective in the hands of mobile insurgent Ukrainian forces. Putin has realised this and has now issued several warnings to the West to stop arming the Ukrainians. He even reinforced this message with the missile strike last weekend on the staging base near the Polish border.
The response was given by President Biden yesterday, announcing another $800m in fresh arms supplies to Ukraine, including S300 ex Soviet SAMs, plus loads more stingers and javelins. The message surely to Putin from Biden is fcuk-you. You started this war, we are not going to rollover to you now. Your only option is to sue for peace, and on Ukrainian terms."
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/decision-time-for-putin
8. This is a very balanced video from a former US Military veteran. Gives a more nuanced view on what’s happening on the ground in Ukraine.
Confirms that Ukraine is winning overall & that Russia has very big problems in short and long run but not battles all going Ukraines way so we need to keep supporting them.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Igq2fqa7RY4
9. "Foreign direct investors in Russia are expected to simply write down their stakes.
But those who have invested directly in Putin’s regime, the foreign bond holders, may, by way of Western courts, have recourse against Russian public assets.
I’m no expert in international law like Professor Gulati. I may have the wrong end of the stick. But if this is broadly speaking correct, it is surely an intolerably perverse situation.
And it poses the question: should the fact that the $117 million in interest are currently flowing to Western investors be a cause for celebration or scandal?
Would it not be appropriate for those proceeds to be allocated to a common fund to compensate the victims of Putin’s aggression?"
https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-101-odious-claims-on-russias
10. This was a great NIA episode. Really worth watching to know what’s happening in business world and crypto world.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pVDyYnR_gFU&t=1892s
11. Good if you ask me & not a good sign for the Russian war effort. This shows some serious deficiencies in Russian military. Fcuk these Russian generals & hope more join them: reap what you sow.
12. This is so absolutely true. Blame can be placed at the terrible energy policies in Western Europe and USA.
https://shaykhatiri.substack.com/p/our-mistakes-have-made-us-reliant
13. "Of course, this was somewhat of an illusion. Companies basically traded away resilience in favor of efficiency, while pretending that there was minimal downside, and yet this type of approach only works under a benign global environment. Outside of the Middle East and a few localized regions around the world, the 1980s through the 2010s was generally a period of limited war as far as supply chains were concerned, with significant global openness and cooperation.
Extremely efficient and highly complex supply chains, with limited redundancy or inventory, could thrive in this stars-aligned macro environment. Any company not playing that game would be less efficient in this environment, and thus would be out-competed.
In recent years, many people spoke about how inflation was dead, and how commodity scarcity was a thing of the past.
The problem with an efficient-but-not-resilient global supply chain, is that it stops working once the smallest of exceptions occur. It could be a natural disaster of some sort, such as a virus. It could be a human disaster of some sort, such as a war. Or both, in the case of the 2020s decade thus far. A highly-levered and fragile system is not designed for such shocks."
https://www.lynalden.com/march-2022-newsletter
14. Good description of the vibe shift in tech from Trump era to Biden era. Very interesting.
https://www.platformer.news/p/the-vibe-shift-in-silicon-valley
15. "The global money washing industry is thriving throughout the U.S. and Europe, and kleptocash has seeped into every corner of our economies. This has profound consequences, for us and for the exploited citizens of the kleptocracies themselves. When Russia began privatizing in the 1990s, it was clear that crime and corruption were rampant.
But Western leaders reasoned that once the oligarchs gained their wealth, they’d develop an interest in stability and the rule of law to protect it, and to support the development of an economy and society where they could enjoy their ill-gotten gains. It’s an age-old phenomenon: Bandits become bandit kings and eventually see the virtues in shedding the banditry — or at least corralling it with law and law enforcement.
But as Russia scholar Karen Dawisha wrote in Putin’s Kleptocracy, that view “failed to foresee the extent to which globalization would allow Russian elites to continue to maximize their gains by keeping domestic markets open for their predation while minimizing their own personal risk by depositing profits in secure offshore accounts” — and enjoying the fruits of the Western economy by buying yachts, enjoying five-star meals, and hanging with celebrities. As she later put it, “the rule of law for Russia is in London.”
The oligarchs may be the ones stealing from the Russian people, but we are the pawn shop that fences their stolen goods."
https://www.profgalloway.com/wash
16. The future of war: Drones. First in Azeri-Armenian war, now by Ukraine trouncing Russian troops (war initiated by Russia btw).
https://futurism.com/the-byte/ukrainian-drone-pilots-russia
17. I love these discussions. The best show online these days discussing the global economy, politics, tech and business.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_U3pVW4u_vw
18. What a strange move ie AMC theaters buying into a gold mining company. Aron of AMC is a very sophisticated Corporate America type and knows the game (in all the good and bad ways). Caveat emptor.
"It has been an interesting two years for Aron and many believe he’s on a hero’s journey of sorts – called to new adventure, bringing AMC through its meme-fueled rebirth and looking for others to save. Happily for Hycroft, and especially happy for the sanctity of Sprott’s debt, this particular hero is attracted to shiny things. Even better, he is followed by an army of primate hodlers willing to follow him off a cliff."
https://doomberg.substack.com/p/a-fool-and-his-gold
19. "So, which is it? The victor is mortally wounded (see Gromen) or the victor wins the spoils. Which is it? Can it be both? We will see America default on its citizens and lenders through inflation. Yes, we will pay the lenders back the $100 we borrowed but it is going to be worth a lot less. Will America default on its own citizens by breaking the promises and failing to deliver government payments? Yes. Will Americans simply have to work longer? Yes. Will that fix the problem? Actually, yes, it will but at what cost to public trust? A huge loss of trust and faith in government is bound to ensue, and that’s starting from the already depressed levels of trust."
https://drpippa.substack.com/p/the-wounded-victor-part-two
20. This is a big deal. Has a huge impact on Russia & of course, China now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2xsCSP8Ic6w
21. "Because we’re Gonna Make It, we’re going to follow some straightforward rules: Only seek out training from people with Industry Recognized Certification, or who have relevant experience to the point where they train Professionals.
First thing you need to do is to judge your current skill level. If you don’t even have basic competency with a gun, there’s really no reason to try to take a tactical shooting class."
https://bowtiedcaiman.substack.com/p/tactical-training-and-why-choosing
22. "Thus, the internet changes Cancel Culture by massively increasing the number of people who can target you for ostracism. It’s a bit like living in a gossipy small town where you don’t know any of your neighbors — you don’t know who’s going to read what you write, so you don’t know how people are going to take what you say."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/its-not-cancel-culture-its-cancel-ade
23. "Buterin hopes Ethereum will become the launchpad for all sorts of sociopolitical experimentation: fairer voting systems, urban planning, universal basic income, public-works projects. Above all, he wants the platform to be a counterweight to authoritarian governments and to upend Silicon Valley’s stranglehold over our digital lives. But he acknowledges that his vision for the transformative power of Ethereum is at risk of being overtaken by greed.
And so he has reluctantly begun to take on a bigger public role in shaping its future. “If we don’t exercise our voice, the only things that get built are the things that are immediately profitable,” he says, reedy voice rising and falling as he fidgets his hands and sticks his toes between the cushions of a lumpy gray couch. “And those are often far from what’s actually the best for the world.”
The irony is that despite all of Buterin’s cachet, he may not have the ability to prevent Ethereum from veering off course. That’s because he designed it as a decentralized platform, responsive not only to his own vision but also to the will of its builders, investors, and ever sprawling community. Buterin is not the formal leader of Ethereum. And he fundamentally rejects the idea that anyone should hold unilateral power over its future."
https://time.com/6158182/vitalik-buterin-ethereum-profile
24. This is the future of war. And the reality is whoever has the moral legitimacy on their side will probably get more of the collective of cyberhackers on their side. In this case, clearly Ukraine.
https://www.bbc.com/news/technology-60784526
25. Ill advised but that has never stopped megalomaniacs from pursuing their agenda of supremacy. If China rises it’s because the US & West completely screwed things up.
"So China stands at an epic crossroads. It faces a choice that will determine its fate for the rest of the century — the choice of whether to return to the path of stability that Deng Xiaoping, Jiang Zemin, and Hu Jintao set it on, or whether to gamble it all to try and succeed where the revisionist illiberal powers of the 20th century failed. The stock market is only the latest messenger issuing a warning that the latter course would be extremely ill-advised."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/china-has-a-fateful-choice-to-make
The Alpinist: Amazing Life Lessons on the Frontiers of Climbing
The documentary tracks the amazing career and life of a brilliant but relatively unknown young Canadian Solo Alpinist Marc-Andre Leclerc.
This movie description says it all.
“Marc-André Leclerc climbs alone, far from the limelight. On remote alpine faces, the free-spirited 23-year-old Canadian makes some of the boldest solo ascents in history. Yet, he draws scant attention. With no cameras, no rope, and no margin for error, Leclerc's approach is the essence of solo adventure.”
I was captivated by his climbing and just how he lived his life. He was not interested in fame but only in pushing himself, pushing the edge of solo climbing and chasing the purity of the climb. Marc-Andre climbed just for the sake of climbing. And wow, the breathtaking views. The cinematography alone is worth watching. Something about the pristine, beautiful mountain vistas.
Marc-Andre:
“When you are in the mountains with a mission. It’s like all the superficialities of life just sort of evaporate. You can find yourself in a deeper state of mind. You appreciate everything so much that you take for granted most of the time.”
There is something scary yet impressive with alpinists. Man versus nature where nature usually wins. Alpinist Rainhold Messner said: “Maybe half of the leading solo climbers of all times died in the mountains. But this is the philosophy. For going in an adventure, you need difficulties, you need danger. If death, was not a possibility, coming out would be nothing. It would be kindergarten, but not an adventure”
Yet Marc threw himself into climbing with energy and verve. As they said, “he just went for it.” This is a guy who solo-ed Mountain Robson in the Rockies, he also tried climbing the pinnacle of Torre Egger (Argentina) in a blizzard. He was unsuccessful making the summit but made it down safely. A big deal by itself. But then in a second attempt he makes the summit. An incredible feat.
So many parallels to life in climbing.
“The actual achievement doesn’t really change your life like you think it might, when you are building up to it. But what you’re left with is the journey that got you to that point, and if you have this big journey where you had to figure a lot of stuff out, you had to plan, and it was more immersive, and you were somewhere very beautiful for a long time, and then had to work really hard, and overcome some kind of mental barrier, you’re left with so much more of a story or like a memory and an experience.That’s what i find is the most important.”--Marc-Andre
“Undeniable that everytime you go to the mountains it could be your last time. So you have to appreciate. Whatever dinner you’d want to be your last dinner, you have to eat it.”--Marc-Andre
“The whole game is very simple. We go somewhere we should not go. Where our own instinct is telling us ‘do not go there.’ Many things can happen. We can fall. The storm could take me away. We know that we can die up there. But still we go there. We try to make real our dreams. Our visions.”--Reinhold Messner
Sadly, Marc-Andre died in an avalanche while scaling a mountain in Alaska. He was 25 years old. But he died doing something he loved. This is more than most people can say.
One of his friends said: “He was one of a kind. He was an individual, individual. He just burned very bright…and he left an indelible mark on a lot of people in a short time, didn’t he.”
What a tribute. Let’s hope we all can have the impact and live a small sliver of the rich life that Marc-Andre did. He lived his dreams. We should do the same.
Forced Obsolescence is a Feature, Not a Bug: Staying Relevant in the Tech Industry (or Any Industry)
I grew up in Vancouver during the 1980s & 90s where there existed a unique school system of Junior High & Senior High. You went to elementary school grade 1-7. You were top dog in grade 7, but then you were thrown into a bigger pool in Junior High. Right back at the bottom again lorded over by the grade 9s & 10s. You make it to Grade 10 and you are the king because you know everyone and understand the system. Then, suddenly, you are moved to Senior High School as a grade 11er, bottom of a larger heap again. 2 years and then University comes and you are once again the small fish in an even bigger pond.
This is an amazing system for building flexibility and crushing your overbearing ego. One minute you are on top, then you are at the bottom of the pyramid every few years. You literally cannot coast or rest on your laurels. You can never get comfortable. This setup was really helpful in preparing me for my career in Silicon Valley. As the famous Andy Grove said, “Only the Paranoid Survive” and his book is worth reading.
Why do I raise this? In an industry that moves and changes as fast as technology, it’s just really hard to keep up. And the tech business justifiably has a bad reputation of ageism & favoring young people.
As a 47 year old in Silicon Valley, you have to continually evolve and learn. This is why I spend so much time and money investing in classes, courses, workshops & books to keep up with what’s happening. This is why I’ve stayed active with the startup ecosystems, do talks & workshops and mentor founders. I also still actively invest in companies. I’d continue doing all of this even if I was a billionaire.
One of my biggest fears is becoming like an aging hipster going to the club and talking about the good old days. Or relying on something I did 5, 10 or 20 years ago. Even if I wanted to, all the places I worked at are either gone or completely irrelevant. Left behind by the crazy new level of competition that exists in the world today. Not a bad thing as you have no choice but to continually raise your game.
I genuinely think of Steve Wozniak as a pioneer and as cofounder of Apple back in the day. But part of me cringes that this will be what he is known for forever. In fact, he still gets paid a lot of money to sort of speak about this. I stress “sort of” as interviews with him are kind of lame because of all the NDAs, Apple PR and such. Reminds of those 80s musicians relying on their one old musical hit. It’s kind of sad to me & yes, I know this makes me a judgmental troll as I have never started a massive company like Apple.
Even Guy Kawasaki has finally ditched his “I was an evangelist for Apple in the 80s” schtick. At least he has joined & helped a very relevant & successful company like Canva.
This isn’t even about making a lot of money or being rich. There are plenty of Silicon Valley multimillionaires and billionaires who are no longer relevant anymore. The cycles of technology shift so quickly and your edge disappears with each new wave. It takes a while to come back. Think of the brilliant semiconductor entrepreneurs who crushed it in the 70s to early 90s but were subsumed by the software industry they enabled. I should note, Ironically, semiconductors have come back to the fore & these entrepreneurs and experts are much needed now.
This is why I am such an admirer of Alan Patrícof who continues to stay on top of things as a VC, starting APAX & then Greycroft which is still a top firm, where he has mentored a new generation of VCs in his firm. He is able to use & share his extensive experience but also gain new perspectives from his younger colleagues and prospective startup founders. Or Steve Case, founder of AOL but now bringing VC to the non-Coastal USA, enabling the “Rise of the Rest.” Or even the not so nice Larry Ellison, who has continued to play an important role driving Oracle to new heights of strength through his vision and attracting great talent.
You have to evolve or die. Yes, this is hard and unfair but life is unfair. So deal with this hard reality or drop out. In fact, Sometimes it’s just a matter of staying in the game long enough until things turn your way. Much easier to last if you really enjoy the industry like I do.
Things are only going to get more competitive and tougher in our industry as it is now a juggernaut versus the niche it was 20 years ago. And this is not just technology. This is happening in media, in advertising, in fashion, and will bleed out to many other industries as well. Everything is accelerating as technology and software infiltrates and transforms the corners of the world.
So how do you keep up?
Learn from your tween/teen kids. Go hang out with brilliant young people. Travel. Take up new hobbies. Be flexible, open minded and have a continual learning mindset. Also be a tiny bit paranoid and push yourself. Do all this and you will be fine.
As Charles Darwin wrote:“It is not the strongest of the species that survives, nor the most intelligent. It is the one most adaptable to change.”
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads Mar 27th, 2022
“Without Courage, Wisdom Bears No Fruit”--Baltasar Gracian
"The larger East European states benefit from their attachment to broader institutions of the West, like NATO and the EU, but they do not want to sacrifice any more of their sovereignty than they have to. Indeed, in a dangerous world they see those institutions primarily as supports for their national independence. Russia’s aggression only reinforces that double impulse towards both alliance and independence. It also confirms their broader diagnosis of the threat they face from the East.
As Michal Kranz explains in this nice piece for Foreign Policy,
Poland no doubt relishes its new centrality to the Western alliance. At the same time, however, as Glapinski’s comment illustrates, they are also acutely aware of the fact that they could easily find themselves relegated to a subordinate position."
https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-98-eastern-europe-in-the
2. This is a really good take on why the Russia army has not been successful in Ukraine. Explains a lot.
https://www.quora.com/Is-Russia-really-failing-at-invading-Ukraine
3. "The world over, it had become fashionable to actively destroy a well-established, affordable industry (fossil fuels), and replace it with an experimental, expensive solution (so-called "renewable" energy). Anyone who pointed this out in an investment context will have received emails about their role in the coming death of humanity – I did!
All the while, our politicians are using monetary policies that try to defy the laws of nature. No matter what you call it – Modern Monetary Theory or something else – you still cannot print your way to prosperity. Anyone who claims otherwise should get their head examined.
This is a period of crazy, and the crazy train only seems to be picking up speed with each year that passes instead of slowing down. If you thought 2016 was crazy, what are you making of 2022 – and how will 2024 look like?
Yet, you are not supposed to speak or write about it. Much of the corporate media have become a tame, submissive mouthpiece of the special interest groups who are driving this nonsense. Or maybe they always were, and we simply noticed it less at the time."
https://www.undervalued-shares.com/weekly-dispatches/ukraine-crisis-where-do-we-go-from-here/
4. Digital dollars are coming. USA as a disruptor in the world, not the policeman of the global order as per Zeihan.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ei8VRaU46dM
5. "If you want to understand human nature it can be summed up as follows “how much you spend” is what a typical person views as rich while a future wealthy individual believe “how much you can spend forever” determines who is rich.
A person who makes $240,000 after taxes and spends it all is “rich” to the typical person as they can see the use of the money.
A person who makes $240,000 after taxes generated from his *assets* is rich according to an actual rich person.
They are not the same and yet you will see these two same people at the same bars, clubs, restaurants etc. Once you understand this you’ll understand why wealth and income cannot be confused. The guy making $1M a year is actually not rich if he spends all of it and the guy making $1M off of just dividends is rich (his assets are closer to $20M based a 4% payout ratio).
As a rule of thumb avoid people who say “you can’t take it with you when you die” as they are unlikely ever going to understand the difference."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/how-cpiinflation-can-be-understated
6. Agree here: Turkey is a critical player in region and the world.
"On Western support for Turkey at this difficult time it is clear that Turkey is set to bear the biggest impact amongst third party countries for the war. Higher energy and food prices and the loss in tourism revenues will make already critical balance of payments and inflation problems much worse and in fact unsustainable. It is indeed hard to see Turkey avoiding a balance of payments crisis now without outside help.
I would advise the West to provide financial assistance to Turkey. The US can provide loan guarantees to the Turkish Treasury and DM central banks should provide swap facilities to the CBRT."
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/the-west-needs-to-provide-financial
7. This shows how broken many of the Western institutions are....sadly.
"Russia’s invasion of Ukraine was sure to kick off a chaotic series of unpredictable and historic moves in the global financial markets. The functional death of the iconic London Metal Exchange is but the first of what we expect will be many similarly situated institutions to get sucked under the steamroller.
RIP LME."
https://doomberg.substack.com/p/nickel-in-front-of-a-steamroller
8. "The good news is that the rest of the world has ability to completely offset the impact. There is more than enough grain in storage to cover the loss of Russian and Ukrainian exports for several years, if need be. There is also substantial scope for U.S. farmers to produce more wheat if they cut back on growing corn and soy. Global coordination among the major consumers and the major grain producers (other than Russia and Ukraine) should be sufficient to ensure that everyone outside of the combat zone has plenty of food."
https://theovershoot.co/p/russias-attack-on-the-worlds-food
9. "The other implication is that while economic sanctions have not yet given the West much leverage over Putin’s war strategy they do offer it leverage over his peace strategy. While he may have convinced himself that Russia – with Belarus – has a self-sufficient autarchic option this is another self-serving fantasy.
The question of the future of sanctions and how they might be unwound is not one to be discussed separately from any peace talks. They are a vital part of the negotiations. As there can be no Western-led peace talks without Ukraine, it should be made clear to Moscow that for now this is a card for Zelensky to play. The future of the Russian economy can then be in his hands. Should a moment come to start to ease sanctions, some leverage will be required to ensure that any agreement is being honoured. There could be a link to reparations for the terrible damage caused.
“Fanaticism”, according to George Santayana, “consists of redoubling your efforts when you have forgotten your aim.” As his original war plans failed Putin has insisted his forces follow a disruptive and cruel strategy that has put his original aims even more out of reach and Ukraine with a say over the future of the Russian economy."
https://samf.substack.com/p/the-bankrupt-colonialist
10. "Of course, CIPS is far away from replacing SWIFT itself. While CIPS is aiming to operate independently in the future, it is still working closely with SWIFT in order to access its wider network. Specifically, the flow of funds works through CIPS domestically, while the flow of information in international transactions has been handled by either CIPS of SWIFT. Moreover, comprising only 3.2 percent of international transactions, the RMB has yet to make a strong argument for many global banks to join an RMB-based financial messaging network.
Overall, with only one-third of its global trade with its largest trading partner settling in Chinese currency, and due to the limited member networks of SPFS and CIPS, Russia is a long way from being able to conduct international trade without SWIFT. Russia may employ foreign reserves and its outstanding BSA to increase its proportion of RMB-based trade; however, this cannot happen overnight, and in the near term this will fail to meet the needs of a globally connected Russia."
https://thediplomat.com/2022/03/can-chinas-swift-alternative-give-russia-a-lifeline
11. "Putin’s attack on Ukraine has shifted the international balance. It has, to say the least, not been a success for Russia so far. In a protracted struggle with the West, Russia might still end up sliding into China’s more or less reluctant embrace. But China won’t rush to take up that role and it will surely guard against getting sucked into a further escalation of US sanctions. What is clear, is that above all its future depends on facing domestic challenges both in the medium and the short-term.
If Beijing suffers a devastating Omicron outbreak in the next few months the entire narrative of the period since 2020 will have to be rewritten."
https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-99-china-under-pressure
12. I feel for the Belarussian people. (obviously not a fan of the leadership)
"There’s a good reason for that caution. Joining the attack against Ukraine would be hugely unpopular — a survey found that only 3 percent of Belarusians support such an idea, according to Ryhor Astapenia, who leads Belarus Initiative at Chatham House’s Russia and Eurasia Program — and it could break the military, which is one of the key pillars keeping Lukashenko in power."
https://www.politico.eu/article/belarus-ukraine-war-russia-alexander-lukashenko-dodges-weaves
13. Customer success is a crucial role for all B2B Startups. This is good basics.
"This segmentation is a rough mental model and exceptions abound, especially when companies sell across segments. A startup might use two or three of these models to serve customers of different sizes through various sales motions."
https://tomtunguz.com/customer-success-evolution
14. "There you have it. An emotional call for help to underline how inadequate the efforts for real support have been so far. At the same time the speech may be laying the groundwork for more direct and consequential action from Canada, the US, and indeed from most democracies. Russia is being boxed in step by step, but it is not going nearly fast enough for Ukrainians on the ground."
https://pieterdorsman.substack.com/p/zelenskys-urgent-message
15. Title says it all.
"The Web3 world is exciting, but it does break many of the orthodoxies we’ve come to expect in venture. Yet I truly believe it is still the case that great founders need patient investors who will back them and support them through crypto winters to come. The best of Web 2.0 VC ethos are still relevant for Web3, but it is far from a case of copy-pasting what we knew."
https://www.theinformation.com/articles/web-2-0-investors-arent-cut-out-for-the-web3-world
16. Good stuff. Truth always comes out with a little help from Anonymous.
17. "My expectation is that the West won’t end up in a cold war with the Chinese and the Russians together. China will continue to sit on the fence, maintaining normal trade relations with Russia where sanctions allow it while refusing to directly come to Putin’s aid to avoid decisive breaks with the West.
But as long as Beijing refuses to distance itself from its new strategic partner and Russia becomes more and more integrated with China economically, financially, and technologically, the risk of knock-on decoupling will remain elevated. The China-West relationship is therefore likely to get worse for the foreseeable future."
https://ianbremmer.bulletin.com/russia-ukraine-china-role
18. "The point is: Until the Maidan, Ukraine existed in the same bucket of excrement in which Russia has lived since the revolution. They’ve had one strongman after another robbing the nation blind and subjugating the people.
But then a small miracle happened: The young people of Ukraine had enough. And they managed to overthrow Putin’s puppet and elect someone with eyes squarely on the West.
Now Putin can’t have this."
https://www.thebulwark.com/why-ukraine-is-dangerous-to-putin
19. The future of war? Or an important aspect of it. Volunteer hacker army.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/15/volunteer-hackers-fight-russia
20. "Wherever you live in the world, it’s possible that everything might seem fine and normal today. But one key lesson we keep learning over and over again is that everything can change in an instant. It’s possible that tomorrow will look nothing like today.
So it’s imperative to think about your Plan B well before any proverbial hits the fan.
Freedom of movement is important. You might need the ability to leave, as well as a place to go.
At a minimum, that means having a valid passport… and ideally a second residency abroad, or even a second citizenship.
Financial security is also important, and that means making sure that your money isn’t concentrated solely in your home country’s financial system."
21. So hesitant to post this but this write up at first glance seems so reasonable & pro-America. He ignores the fact that Russia actually did invade & wants to subsume a sovereign country.
And the reason Russia has not mass bombed cities and civilians earlier in war was due to logistical issues, not lack of intent.
This is the Russian way of war: just like in Chechnya & Syria.
I get his distrust for the American political & media class (I share it) but Ukraine actually is important from resource perspective, general peace in Europe (US has major economic interests there as trading partners) & also international law one too.
Sadly many people don't read & lean toward fringe ideas on both left and right side.
https://dossier.substack.com/p/the-forgotten-question-what-is-the
22. "What is at issue in the current moment is not the stability of the financial system as such, or the survival of particular trading houses, but the general sense of crisis and instability. Along with the war in Ukraine, the extreme spikes in oil and gas prices are a major manifestation of that instability. If there is a relevant lesson from Lehman in this context it is less a matter of financial technicalities than the realization that in a precariously balanced situation it can be very dangerous to let a major domino fall. And right now, the European gas market, is a very big domino indeed.
Another lesson from Lehman is that once the crisis has passed you must engage in wholehearted structural reform. The window of opportunity is narrow. And if you do not seize it, the structures that generated the risk in the first place will resume their growth and their vice grip on the political economy will become ever firmer.
If commodity businesses are part of the shadow banking ecosystem they too should be included in a major new regulatory push, drawing the lessons from 2020-2022."
https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-100-must-central-banks
Putting Things in Perspective: Feeding Gratitude
It has been a really rough last couple years for the world. 2020-2022=global wake up calls.
So much has happened, a global pandemic, incompetent government response & a frankly more authoritarian one. A crazy media hysteria, bad economic policy/ high inflation capped off by the awful Russian invasion of Ukraine. So many shocks to the system. Literally and figuratively.
What I came to realize was that so many things that bothered me or I spent so much time on really did not matter. What really matters? Personal health both mental & physical, family, friends, followed by personal sovereignty & financial freedom.
I take nothing for granted these days. Or try to at least.
However crap you think your life is, there are so many others who have it way worse. No matter how expensive the gas is, or how much the food costs at the grocery store, at least you can buy some. At least you have a roof over your head. You don’t have an invader bombing your home or family like in Ukraine, or you don’t have to flee with nothing but that which you can fit in your suitcase. Or even flee separately from your family because the men have to stay and fight for your country. Seriously, how lucky (and frankly spoiled) are we in America or Western Europe when in comparison to this?
According to Maslow’s Hierarchy of Needs as defined in Wikipedia:
“Maslow's hierarchy of needs is used to study how humans intrinsically partake in behavioral motivation. Maslow used the terms "physiological", "safety", "belonging and love", "social needs" or "esteem", and "self-actualization" to describe the pattern through which human motivations generally move. This means that in order for motivation to arise at the next stage, each stage must be satisfied within the individual themselves.”
With so many shocks to the system, you start to get a new perspective on what is really important. You practice gratitude. And you soon realize, it’s the simple things that truly make someone happy.
For me: It’s Buying and reading a book. Eating good food. Spending time with my daughter. Traveling to a new or old city. Meeting friends. Having a meeting or call with one of my many portfolio companies to talk through problems or issues. Helping & mentoring at the various startup accelerators programs across the world. Being able to help people. Nothing makes me happier or more fulfilled.
The key point of having the freedom to spend the time with who I want to, not who I need to.
But you need to change your frame of mind. To do that, channeling Tony Robbins, change your language. “I get to” versus “I need to.” You reprogram your brain just like you can do to software.
You have to take action. No matter how small. And it certainly helps to have a larger mission in life beyond yourself.
My goal to positively impact 10 Million people in the world is even clearer than before. And I add that in light of the illegal Russian invasion of Ukraine, I believe and know that Ukraine will eventually win. It will be sovereign & free as the people there are strong. When that happens, I will be there to invest and help them rebuild the country. In fact, I am spending my time now helping & donating my money and time to supporting Ukrainian refugees & Ukraine’s defense effort. It feels really trivial but I have to believe every little bit helps.
In the meantime, please support the following charities & non-profits helping Ukraine in this dark time:
Borderlands Project (full disclosure, I am on the board of this non-profit): https://borderlands.com.ua/homepage_en
International Rescue Committee: https://www.rescue.org
World Central Kitchen: https://wck.org
Nova Ukraine: https://novaukraine.org
So net net: the cure for getting through all the tragedy and bad news in the world is having a larger mission and taking those steps toward it, however small it is.
Living on Multiple Grids: Towards Being a Sovereign Individual
Andrew Tate aka Cobra Tate, elder half of the internet famous playboy Tate brothers. Two of the most real & interesting guys I’ve run into on the internet. Children of a chess master, who grew up poor in the US & UK. Andrew Tate was groomed to become a professional chess player but ended up becoming a professional fighter and a world champion kickboxer. A true rags to riches story, he ended up becoming a multimillionaire by starting a girls webcam business and moved to Romania. He further expanded his wealth through Crypto & real estate investments, building out a OnlyFans agency and Casino empire. He & his very polished, fellow kickboxer younger brother Tristan, live the unabashed life of playboys, dating multitudes of beautiful women, traveling the world in private jets partying in exotic destinations like Monaco or Dubai, driving around in expensive luxurious sports cars (20 as last count). Basically living the dream of every 16 year boy.
Hated by feminists and the politically correct, they are unapologetic about their lifestyle and are direct (read honest) of their views on everything, politics, Covid, government, business, society. No sugar coating and definitely no self censoring, they say what they think. Whether one agrees with them, they are the most real individuals on the internet right now outside of Joe Rogan. Apparently Andrew is on his 9th Twitter handle and 3rd Youtube channel as his accounts have been closed due to complaints or breaking the somewhat mysterious and arbitrary platform policies there. They do what they want and literally do not care what other people think.
A big reason they are confident enough to do so is because they are financially independent and not reliant on others for a job or business. They are fully living the “Sovereign Individual life”. Andrew stated in an interview, “there is no living off the grid in our interconnected world, you have to live on multiple grids.”
This makes sense, as it’s hard to track someone who is in multiple jurisdictions. I recall having a local friend tell me that one reason crime was so bad in Sao Paulo Brazil was because of the multiple different police forces (Federal Police, Military Police of Sao Paulo, Civil Police) that operated there who had overlapping territories and powers. Criminals were able to slip through the many cracks because it was not clear who had jurisdiction (for the record I am not advocating you do anything criminal or suspect). I can’t verify this but it kind of makes sense. My point about this situation as an analogy to Country jurisdiction is sound.
Tate further elaborates that you need to have multiple passports & have money and investments all over. This is basically the 5 Flag Strategy to diversify and protect your life, wealth and freedom. There are 2 very good primers here:
1) https://www.offshorelivingletter.com/key-topics/flag-theory/
2) https://nomadcapitalist.com/flag-theory/
This became even more important during the Pandemic over the last 2 years. Romania had one of the hardest lock downs in Europe in 2020, but because of his various passports, Andrew could travel to places that were open like Sweden, Dubai and then Miami in the USA. Because of his various citizenships he could always find a place in the world that fit his lifestyle while others were stuck in Covid prison.
I did the same in 2020. After almost 6+ months of lockdown in San Francisco, (California spent up to a year in lockdown), I was able to leave and go to Europe & then Asia, where life was somewhat more normal and the people less insane. I did this for almost 1.5 years as I am writing this. Every time there was a lockdown, I left for a country that was more open. Ukraine, Georgia, Taiwan, Turkey, North Macedonia, Mexico, Portugal & finally Canada (they had to let me in as I am Canadian). And frankly, these are places with a much higher quality of life and cost structure compared to where I am in the USA.
After almost 2 years into the pandemic, it’s become very clear to me that Covid policy just doesn’t work outside of shutting down the economy and destroying small businesses. Just compare the covid deaths and economy of Texas (261 per 100,000)/Florida (294 per 100,000) versus California 194 per 100,000). We should bear in mind Florida has a far higher population of at risk individuals than in California. It’s pure insanity that countries in Asia and Europe continue this practice of lockdowns and quarantines. In fact, the CCP’s Zero Covid policy is causing major strife in China right now.
I, for one, will not comply with this stupidity anymore. And I don’t need to because my life and business can be run from anywhere with a smartphone, laptop & internet connection. Starlink, SpaceX’s satellite driven broadband service is only going to make good internet access easier and easier as time goes on. I can pick up and leave anytime.
Additionally, it’s also very clear the world is moving into an “open” versus “closed” country. The United States, Dubai, and Latin America are not closing down again. Some parts t of Asia will remain closed through part of 2022. Even in the US, we see open states like Florida & Texas versus the still restrictive blue states of New York & California. All this means there will be places for mobile individuals to go to.
Adding the shocking invasion of Ukraine by Putin aka Putler’s Russia, shows us also that war can seem to come out of nowhere. So mobility & some form of location and asset diversification for you and your family can be very important. In fact, as we see the tragedy unfold in front of our eyes, it could literally be a matter of life and death.
I’m still early in my Sovereign Individual journey. But numerous big trends & growing awareness of the populace are coming together:
1) the growing popularity of remote work
2) realization of the way governments across the world are mismanaging the economy (ie. massive inflation)
3) ongoing pandemic policies moving toward pretty dangerous authoritarian directions in the developed West. Looking at you Austria, Germany, Canada, Australia, New Zealand
4) the conflagrations of a land war in Europe that many worry will extend beyond Ukraine.
These awakenings will only lead to far more people embracing a Sovereign Individual life. Or at minimum, what was a Digital Nomad lifestyle, that of being location independent.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads Mar 20th, 2022
“Life Shrinks or Expands in Proportion to One’s Courage”--Anais Nin
"The coming years of Putin’s rule will thus look very much like the worst years of Yeltsin’s rule. Putin was brought out of the deep shadows with the idea that he would protect the gains of Yeltsin’s family and the oligarchs while reimposing some degree of internal stability. In his first two terms, he was successful in doing that.
But at the end (or whatever the current point it is) of has reign, he brought all the original diseases back and made them in some sense worse because his policies stuck the country in an impasse and simultaneously closed off all the venues of change."
https://branko2f7.substack.com/p/russias-economic-prospects-the-short
2. Net net the Russian economy long term is in deep doo doo.
"Both policies, namely import substitution and shift towards the East, will therefore meet with almost insuperable obstacles. It does not mean that they cannot be undertaken; some of them will by done, by necessity: Russian softwares will have to be produced to replace the 95% of western-origin software that is currently used in automatized Russian companies (Russian newspaper sources).
Closer economic ties with China would also imply some movement of companies and people East. A Siberian or a Pacific city can become the second capital (as Ankara did in Turkey). But a significant success in either of these two domains seems—the best that can be seen from today’s perspective—simply unreachable."
https://branko2f7.substack.com/p/russias-long-term-prospects
3. Jim Rogers is the man. Commodities are the place to be. Also Invest in places that are hated (most of the time).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c2pWtp7MpM0
4. "There is now more downside risk than upside risk as I currently weigh the optimistic case at 33% (and declining). When it comes to your fear versus greed toggle, it is time to be more fearful. However, fortunes are made in bear markets. As Buffett has said, we should be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful.
To position ourselves to play offense in a bear market (either as investors or as founders), we must be proactive before the bear market materializes. For both investors and founders, the takeaway is simple: raise a war chest now. For founders, this means raising enough cash to survive and indeed to press competitors during tough times. For investors, this means raising liquidity in anticipation of chances to buy attractive assets at dimes or pennies on the dollar.
Individuals should try to lock in long term fixed mortgages at today’s low rates while they still can. I would also recommend maxing out the amount of non-recourse loans you can borrow against your home at a low 30-year fixed rate. Inflation will ebb away at your debt load. I recently renegotiated my mortgage on my New York apartment for instance.
Despite high inflation, I would keep a fair amount of cash on hand. While its value is being deflated it gives you optionality to buy assets cheaply should there be a large correction. It’s the reason we pursued an aggressive secondary strategy over the last 12 months.
Founders should raise now while keeping an eye on their unit economics and burn. Private market multiples have not yet compressed to the level of public markets. Given a potential multiples compression, you might get the same valuation today as you will in 1 year despite having 1 year of growth."
https://fabricegrinda.com/the-great-unknown
5. "As the initial Bretton Woods era (1944-1971) was backed by gold, and Bretton Woods II (1971-present) backed by "inside money" (essentially U.S. government paper), said Pozsar, Bretton Woods III will be backed by "outside money" (gold and other commodities).
Pozsar marks the end of the current monetary regime as the day the G7 nations seized Russia's foreign exchange reserves following the latter's invasion of Ukraine. What had previously been thought of as risk-free became risk-free no more as non-existent credit risk was instantly substituted for very real confiscation risk."
6. A cogent and hopeful view of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Net net: Russia cannot win in the long run.
https://www.americanpurpose.com/articles/preparing-for-defeat
7. "To meet the new authoritarian challenge, the U.S. and its existing allies will have to bring more partners into the fold. A 21st century diplomatic revolution is necessary in order to create a coalition that has the power both to stabilize international relations and safeguard the human rights that have gradually but steadily made the world a better place to live.
It starts with India.
It’s time to recognize that the unipolar hegemony the U.S. and our close allies enjoyed in the 1990s is gone, and will not return for a very long time if ever. We simply do not have the luxury to get on our high horse and try to ostracize everyone who doesn’t live up to our declared standards — never mind the fact that with the Iraq War and the Trump presidency, we proved that we ourselves don’t always live up to those standards. If we try to make every country without a perfect Freedom House score into a pariah, it is we who will become the pariah — and the world will be ruled from Beijing and Moscow."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/time-for-a-diplomatic-revolution
8. "Many years ago, I was on the other side of the table after we sold Pardot. I was talking to a successful entrepreneur, seeking advice as to what to think about now that it was time for the next chapter in life. He said something that has always stuck with me, “Your skills will immediately start atrophying if you don’t stay in the game.”
Figure out what game you want to play next."
https://davidcummings.org/2022/03/12/post-entrepreneurial-exit-bias-towards-action
9. This is absolutely right on for many of us. We should be grateful for our peacetime problems.
https://junglegym.substack.com/p/the-privilege-of-peacetime-problems
10. Some good stories behind the "Great resignation" in the USA.
https://thehustle.co/why-people-are-really-leaving-their-jobs-during-the-great-resignation
11. "But people like Mearsheimer just play to the Kremlin’s narrative - it was all the West’s fault. So how about the tens, if not hundreds of billions of dollars in development aid which went into Russia after 1991? Billions of dollars in the EU TACIS programme. We opened up our markets - allowed Russia to raise more than $2 trillion via our capital markets to let them modernise their industry. We allowed our managers, accountancy first, banks, law firms to bring Russia inc up to modern standards. We gave Russia a window and market to the world via WTO membership. We allowed it’s elites to enrich themselves and fill state coffers. We actually funded Putin’s rebuild of the Russian military.
And what did we get from all this? Animosity, jealousy, and now war. We gave Russia an open hand and got slapped in the face. Worse for Ukrainians now who are being murdered because they aspire to live by our values and not Putin’s.
Let’s not try and find scapegoats at home but realise that all this is because of one plain evil man - Putin - which we have enabled for too long and failed to realise the true nature of the threat."
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/mearsheimer-should-be-ashamed-of
12. "So there are risks to these sanctions, I think. But de-dollarization is not one of them — at least, not in the current conflict. The first reason this is true is that the kind of financial shift people are worrying about would have to mean not just abandonment of the dollar, but also abandonment of the second most important international currency — the euro — at the same time."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/dont-worry-about-de-dollarization
13. This is a really great initiative to support the innocent Ukrainian refugees fleeing Putin's awful invasion.
14. Brave men I really admire.
"Collectively, these recruits amount to the most significant international brigade since the Spanish civil war, when volunteers including leftwing intellectuals fought in communist-organised military units between 1936 and 1938 in support of Spain’s popular front government. Gavrylko said he was aware of these historical echoes. Ukraine, in his view, was now fighting Vladimir Putin and a 21st-century version of fascism."
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/mar/11/ukraine-russia-war-foreign-fighters-volunteers
15. I would NOT want to be on the wrong side of Anonymous.
https://vt.co/news/world/anonymous-issues-lengthy-statement-amid-its-biggest-op-ever-seen
16. This is a damn shame. We need to be alot more thoughtful here.
Not all Russians support the war & at minimum let's not alienate the ones who have spoken out. (in fact most of young Russians and Russians in general outside of RU do not support the war or Putin).
Collective punishment is dumb. Its like what happened to Japanese Americans in WW2, or Arabic (or even Arabic looking) people after 9/11 or any Asians during Covid.
17. Good overview of the sanctions being used on Russia. Very helpful to understand.
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/the-big-sanctions-a-quick-explainer
18. This whole thing is a complete tragedy inflicted on these wonderful people by the deluded sociopath Putin.
This is why we in the West must support Ukraine anyway we can.
https://sifted.eu/articles/ukraine-tech-workers-war
19. "In the past 15 years, Russians have become used to living a reasonably comfortable life. It’s a nearly-developed consumer society that has become accustomed to deep economic integration with Europe. Now suddenly that is all being yanked away — Russians are being asked to go back to the economic isolation, shortages, and hardship of the 90s, or even of the USSR, almost overnight.
I can’t say I know what political effect that will have. Will Russians rally around the flag and see this as an attack from the West that they need to resist? Or will discontent over Putin’s pointless war of choice rise and rise? Only time will tell."
"Protocol did a report on Russian dependence on foreign chips last year, and found that European and U.S. companies sell them a lot of microprocessors, while their memory chip imports come mostly from South Korea and the U.S. That’s all done now.
This will hit Russian defense manufacturing immediately. Over the longer term, there will also be the problem that the machines Russians use to make their tanks and planes and rocket launchers and transport trucks will need spare parts as they wear out, and these will be in short supply.
And on top of all that, financial sanctions make it difficult for both the state and defense companies to actually pay their employees! Companies — including state-run ones — generally rely on a lot of overnight loans to make payroll and other payments."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/how-are-the-big-sanctions-hurting
20. "Image rights encompass everything to do with a person’s likeness, such as their name, signature, voice, image, and any other characteristic which is unique to them. By selling these rights, both MINT Media and Peter Lim control all decision-making power over the use of Cristiano Ronaldo’s image.
Essentially, this means any brand that wishes to associate itself with Cristiano Ronaldo needs to first seek permission from MINT Media. The team then assesses whether the arrangement will be beneficial to the CR7 brand portfolio and if approved, will grant permission in exchange for a very hefty fee.
The decision to sell his rights came after winning his third Ballon D’or award and at a time when European football was becoming increasingly popular in Asia. Being one of the most prominent businessmen in the region, Peter Lim seemed like the perfect fit to provide both the network for Ronaldo to diversify his audience and expand his popularity by entering the Asian market. And it paid off big time."
https://www.bosshunting.com.au/sport/cristiano-ronaldo-image-rights
21. "Putin built his legitimacy around the idea of restoring Russia’s stability, prosperity, and global standing. By threatening all three, the war in Ukraine is shaping up to be the greatest test of his regime to date."
https://www.vox.com/22961563/putin-russia-ukraine-coup-revolution-invasion
22. Humility is an investor's best friend.
"I have had a spectacular two-year run with hardly any large mistakes. Yet, I know that mistakes are part of this game. We all get over-confident and get them wrong.
I don’t think I have ever seen a diversified basket of stocks collapse this rapidly. It’s the sort of thing that keeps you humble. It keeps you from ever ramping the leverage too hard. Hopefully, it helps me avoid much larger land-mines, because I expect extreme volatility in the coming weeks. Then again, I guess I was simply over-due to get kicked in the nuts…"
https://adventuresincapitalism.com/2022/03/06/i-sure-bungled-that-one/
23. "Self-Service motions are fundamental to the success of many modern startups. For founders embracing a Go-To-Market strategy with Self-Service as a core component, there are four key takeaways:
-A product experience that has limited friction for users to experience the “Aha!” moment
-Highly supportive Education and Community programs to assist users on their journeys
-An organization that treats self-service as a first-class initiative
-Dedicated resources and cross-functional execution"
https://www.unusual.vc/post/unusual-insights-for-founders-building-a-self-service-motion
24. "By the way, I often see product teams and engineering falling for the “better products” belief. Probably because they always perceive their own “baby” differently. Mostly more positive than in the reality of those who are supposed to buy it.
Marketing and Sales believe they can do this with a good story but quickly realize they are selling to the wrong customers or Customer Success and Support are bombarded by frustrated customers.
In summary, there are five areas that must be properly defined and, most importantly, must work together. This applies above all to the teams.
-Market segmentation / Ideal Customer Profile
-Product vision and roadmap
-Positioning
-Messaging
-Go-to-market approach"
https://dirkschart.com/2022/02/21/the-perception-trap-why-better-products-dont-sell
25. These business models are the toughest to execute in my book.
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/03/11/tech/ultra-fast-delivery-startups-fridge-no-more-buyk/index.html
26. "In just one week, Liscovich, a handful of fellow Ukrainian volunteers, and seven former Uber colleagues in the US have built an operation running trucks of essential supplies like boots, phones, portable chargers, cables, tourniquets, and protective gear to pickup locations for volunteer fighters to collect.
Liscovich turned up at the Zaporizhzhia volunteer enlistment office to fight on March 2, roughly one week into the Russian invasion. But when local leaders learned about his experience in tech and his Harvard degree, they put him to work building a supply chain for the under-equipped local volunteer forces.
"They decided given my background it would not be the best use of my time to give me an AK-47," Liscovich told Insider on Wednesday morning. "There were a lot of volunteers ready to fight, but not enough supplies."
27. "The Russian economy has been de-platformed. The Russian Ruble has lost more value than during the Russian Financial Crisis in 1998 and Russia’s credit rating has been slashed to junk and is on a par with Angola and Nicaragua (which observers point out is wildly unfair to Angola and Nicaragua). Central banks are boycotting Russia’s FX reserves. Russian Banks are going bust. The public cannot access cash. Russia is cut off from SWIFT. Western banks, Amex, Visa, Microsoft and pretty much every app no longer works in Russia.
Grindr, however, is still on because it has turned out to be an amazing backchannel, allowing Russian soldiers to communicate battleplans to the West. The Russian public are having to queue for money, food. Almost all commercial airlines are no longer available. Russian ships are banned from ports. Many Western firms have cut Russia off. Star link is allowing regular Russians to connect to the internet against Putin’s vociferous objections."
https://drpippa.substack.com/p/the-good-news-ispart-1
28. "Prevent Famine: Every core element of the food supply chain is affected by the war in Ukraine: Putin has dropped a bomb on the European agricultural sector. Russians have suspended fertilizer exports and Belarus declared a Force Majeure and cannot export their potash. Russia won’t allow it to be exported now either. Nor will the world buy anything from them as long as they are Russia’s lackeys. To remove that much fertilizer from the world economy (Belarus provides 40% of the global supply of potash and Russia supplies 66% of ammonium nitrate), is to set the stage for massively reduced yields and possibly famine.
On top of this, we now see the oil price up at $125 and heading a lot higher. This too will remove fertilizer from the reach of the common farmer. In addition, Russia won’t sell their wheat and the world won’t buy it (or anything else due to sanctions). The good news is that alternative suppliers are coming online like, of all places, Michigan and Morroco They need to move much faster though."
https://drpippa.substack.com/p/the-good-newspart-2-prevent-famine
29. I am not so optimistic about any government's "good intentions" here.
"The world needs to create a digital money system that brings the ease of use and the radical transparency needed to prevent government authorities from doing things in the dark but that also protects the human freedoms of the individual. The good news is that there is still time. The good news is that currency is the one the world will want to use. If the new currency is Bitcoin, with all its anonymity and non-KYC/AML compliance, then a new war has been declared.
The good news is that all this means even the government will want a way to convert their crypto into sovereign money or something they can actually use. A digital sovereign dollar will make that faster and easier and give the world a way to transact even if chaos is breaking loose. That’s why Coinbase started to distinguish between dodgy customers and innocent victims of war. Dirty versus clean. The distinction will only become sharper over time. That means more digital money is on the way. Investors just need to figure out which ones will be the winners here. For those focused on the social contract, we’ll need a Digital Bill of Rights too."
https://drpippa.substack.com/p/the-good-news-part-3-move-to-digital
30. This might look like a hit piece but this dude was always dodgy as F--k.....
"He was bound for San Francisco, completing the first of his many escapes. Sun learned early that in the world of cryptocurrency, heaps of money can be made with ease, so long as you’re ready to exit before it catches up to you.
One of the crypto-finance lawyers I talked to warned, “Business execs should never go lawyer to lawyer until they get a ‘yes.’ You’re not looking for counsel — you’re looking for a yes man.” Sun was often able to find them at his companies, and as his business decisions became more risky, few resisted the way Labhart did. It seemed as though Sun believed that counsel were disposable, like he could afford to leave them behind, tarred by the acts they unwittingly facilitated, while he kept his eye on the pathway out."
https://www.theverge.com/c/22947663/justin-sun-tron-cryptocurrency-poloniex
31. These policies are so sensible that even the deluded political officials at the top of the US Gov't will probably eventually follow them......stress on eventually......only after lots of pain to regular people.
"The US, Canada, and Mexico have enormous proven energy reserves and the technical know-how to become the dominant energy-producing region on the planet. We can do so cleanly, safely, and domestically – reducing the strength of our geopolitical enemies and simultaneously creating high-paying jobs, providing a significant and durable competitive advantage to our manufacturing base, and increasing the standard of living of our population and that of our allies.
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent economic destruction of Europe due to an energy crisis of their own making should serve as a serious wake-up call to North America’s political establishment. Instead of seeking to replace our energy reliance on one dictatorship (Russia) with three others (Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, and Iran), we should be looking inward for the answers to our problems."
https://doomberg.substack.com/p/a-serious-proposal-on-us-energy
32. I firmly believe this view.
"If you’re dissatisfied with the Achievements and Results you’ve amassed by this time in your life, you need to go out there and DO STUFF. Learning skills are great, but it’s even more important that you USE those skills to make your life better. Skills that don’t actually, you know, do anything might as well not be skills at all.
Because Humans Need Things. And People need to step up and provide Those Things. Being a Producer and not just a Consumer isn’t just good for you in material terms, it makes you a wiser, happier, more moral person. So go out there and PRODUCE."
https://bowtiedcaiman.substack.com/p/better-man-using-skills-to-build
33. In case anyone has any illusions of the brutality & evil of Putin and the Russian army's approach to this awful invasion and war on Ukraine, you should read this.
It is also why Ukrainians are fighting so hard & why the West needs to help them.
https://stefekrajic.substack.com/p/russias-dual-track-strategy
34. This story really stuck with me.
"My grandparents had doubted their decision to flee their friends, family, and home until they saw these dignitaries departing. They abandoned their suitcases, stuffed whatever they could fit into knapsacks, and walked across the border with the help of a smuggler and a healthy bribe — my grandfather handed over his precious silver pocket watch to the border guard.
My father describes that his grandfather had the foresight to liquidate much of his net worth into a handful of bars of gold, one kilogram each, which he carried in his knapsack. As I read reports of modern-day Ukrainians carrying their cryptocurrencies across the border and the millions of dollars of donations flowing through the blockchain into the hands of Ukrainian families and relief organizations, I get the chills."
https://medium.com/@bussgang/echoes-of-my-history-in-ukraine-25865e160d3f
35. Logistics and supply chain matters. This is why Russia will lose in the end, even IF they have tactical victories (which I don't see many of either).
https://thetriad.thebulwark.com/p/russias-logistical-nightmare-will
36. "So people still don’t think the Fed is ready to drop the hammer on the U.S. economy. But even a mild rise in rates could have some effect — Yellen’s announcement of gentle hikes in late 2015, which ultimately topped out at only 2.4%, still probably triggered the mini-downturn of 2016 (which may have helped Trump win that election). And once the China disruptions are factored in — and especially if the lockdowns get even worse — rates could end up being more than 2% by this time next year.
Will this cause a recession? It’s notoriously hard to predict recessions until they’re right on top of you. Economists have a few tools available to predict financial crises a few years in advance, but this recession, if it comes, will be the Fed-induced variety rather than the 2008 type. "
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/china-russia-and-the-inflation-situation
37. "While in one respect the MOF would like not to be able to pay their foreign creditors as this a) saves now scarce FX reserves; b) hurts investors in adversary nations, and they then hope these will lobby their own governments for sanctions relief, the downside is that non payment and potential default would have serious and long run consequences for Russia.
A default would see Russian ratings cut to default status, and given likely difficulties in ensuring speeding debt restructuring, this status could remain for a very long time. This would keep Russian borrowing costs very high, liming financing options even from so called allies, such as the Chinese. Even should the war end quickly, and peace be resolved, markets and ratings agencies will remember this crisis for some time and ratings will be slow to recover and Russian borrowing costs slow to moderate. This will crimp Russian economic development for years to come.
Through its invasion of Ukraine, Russia has clearly marked it out as an ardent adversary, even enemy, of the West - and its hard to see this changing very quickly. The West will have a strong interest in keeping Russia contained, both militarily and economically. They will have little interest in opening the floodgates again to Western financing of Russia. And as agreement on a debt restructuring is a key initial requirement, I think the West will look to drag its feet. So think here more Venezuela style debt restructuring talks, than a speedy conclusion as per recent Ecuador or even Ukraine 2015."
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/russia-thoughts-on-default-and-debt
38. "So the separation of state and money becomes interesting from the vantage point that a non-state money can not be debased intentionally by any one individual or group. The odds of success are incredibly small, and every prior attempt has failed, but if someone was able to successfully achieve this breakthrough, it would be wildly valuable.
The non-state money idea is a perfect power law investment. In fact, I would argue that it may be the largest addressable market and potentially the biggest financial gain available. Regardless, the asymmetry is hard to fathom when compared to other moon shot ideas."
https://pomp.substack.com/p/non-state-money-as-a-power-law-investment
39. "For the 99.9% who don't become the next Elon or join the next SpaceX, we should emphasize collective purpose/meaning bigger than our own happiness: a positive-sum mindset based on expanding the pie. The idea that they are enough and should be proud of what they are, but also aspire for more as a way to continue contributing. The dual advice of “You’re doing OK, and that’s OK, and yet, if you want to contribute more, you can and should also strive to be better and do more”.
Most people need to believe in some deeper purpose behind what they’re doing. We need a more accessible, transcendent narrative for why more people should be ambitious, especially if it comes as any form of sacrifice."
https://eriktorenberg.substack.com/p/on-ambition
40. "Nowhere is this decision weightier than in Germany, Europe’s economic great power. Germany is the key to any European boycott because it buys so much Russian energy. By the same token the impact on the German economy of ending energy imports from Russia is likely to be large. Energy has long been part of German statecraft, a way of exercising leverage and shaping its neighborhood. Will Berlin, faced with the current crisis, deploy the full force of the economic weapon?
The basic facts are clear. Oil accounts for 32 percent of German primary energy input and one third of that comes from Russia. Gas accounts for 27 percent of Germany’s primary energy input, of which 55 percent comes from Russia. Of the coal burned in Germany, which accounts for 18 percent of energy input, 26 percent comes from Russia. All told that means that just over 30 percent of Germany’s primary energy input comes from Russia."
https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-97-is-boycotting-russian
The Hell of Future Spiraling: How to Manage Uncertainty
Future spiraling is a term I learned from my therapist. Future spiraling is what happens when you project into the future your present life. Usually when things look uncertain or unclear. It’s very scary stuff for most of us, especially those who really like predictability in our lives.
I’ve been deep in tech startup land for almost 2 decades and this is something that hits almost all founders at some point in their business, especially when times are really bad. You are running out of money, your CTO quits, your best customer stops paying or stops using your product and goes to the competitor. Usually something to do with running out of money. Things are dark. It starts to look worse as you further project this out a few months and you can’t help but despair. We can’t help it, we’re wired this way as humans.
“Studies have shown that up to 70 percent of our thoughts are negative (this statistic is weirdly soothing—I thought it was just me). Don’t get me wrong, we don’t want to be this way; rather, our brains are hardwired to focus on the bad stuff. Once upon a time, this tendency was essential for survival. When venturing out of the safety of our caves to find food, we had to be constantly on the lookout for predators. Nowadays, our walk across the grocery store parking lot may not be as risky as a walk across the savannah, but thanks to evolution, our brains are still constantly on guard. But catastrophizing can lead to high levels of stress, anxiety, and depression.” (Source:https://www.headspace.com/articles/4-things-remember-next-time-youre-spiraling)
I think we have all been here. And this has become even more common for everyone in a time of uncertainty like we have had in the last 2 years since the Covid pandemic started.
I’ve counseled countless founders when they get into the inevitable crisis mode. A situation that every startup goes through at some point in their life.
So I recommend 5 simple things:
Cut their costs aka burn rate to lowest possible level
Have a 1 day plan and 1 week plan and don’t look further than that. One step at a time. Keep a short to do list of 1-3 things
Keep a short list (no more than 3) of Input goals and actions. Ie. for example instead of a goal of how much revenue you will make, focus on the amount of sales calls and emails you will send
Make sure they try to meditate, sleep well every day and exercise regularly: this allows your body to cope better with the stress
Take short breaks and watch comedy videos to take their minds off things. Laughing psychologically is also a great way to manage mentally
I followed this advice myself during my personal hell of 2020 and even now in 2022. And it does work. It forces you to take some hard action and not dwell or think too much. Having time to think about the situation is mental death. It paralyzes you. What I’ve learned is that once you start taking action, new opportunities inevitably arise for you.
Keeping yourself mentally fit allows you to turn things around and gain traction. You eventually do get your momentum back. Then it’s off to the races again. It gets you out of the “Future Spiraling” which just destroys you psychologically.
When Sadness Turns to Rage: Managing Yourself
Two weeks into the abominable Russian invasion of Ukraine, I’d spent a lot of the time glued to twitter and the news. Besides trying to keep in contact with friends and colleagues there, and trying to help where I could. It was and still is a rough time. Obviously, not as rough as the poor refugees fleeing in the midst of winter. Or as rough a time for the brave Ukrainian civilians and military defending their homes and family against a much larger aggressor in Putin’s Russia.
Racked with a feeling of helplessness & guilt for not being able to do more, you find yourself stuck into the vortex of consuming even more news and tweets. Yes, donating money and spreading the news of the good cause is something but it’s just not enough. You stew in your emotions. Add to this, the worry for your friends, the sadness you feel for the injustice & the loss of the potential and promise of this young emerging Ukrainian democracy and the rich culture life there, it quickly turned into anger and rage. Which is probably what triggered an uncharacteristic twitter attack on that Right wing A–hole criticizing Ukraine & western support for them. A need to take any remote action as trite or silly as it is.
Looking back on this, its incredibly stupid. And that stupid event only led me to more rage. To the point that I almost got into some stupid live fist fights against random dudes who bumped into me, in super chill and relaxing Hawaii of all the most places! I literally saw red. If I knew or ran into any of the incel trolls, I probably would have physically attacked and hurt them. And then who would have lost? Me. I would have disappointed my parents who raised me to be better, been a bad example for my kid and frankly just hurt myself by wrecking what is an incredibly charmed and wonderful life that I worked decades to build.
I’m really quite embarrassed by this, as I like to think that I am a rational, civilized and well educated person. But that episode showed me we are not that far off from the gorillas or neanderthals we descended from. Especially ones put into constant “Flight or Fight” mode now for close to 2 years as I wrote about here: https://hardfork.substack.com/p/why-is-everyone-so-angry-behavioral.
Not excusing my behavior at all. Yet we dealt with 2 years of a pandemic, social isolation and media inflammation. Now we are dealing with a very big land war in Europe started by a dictator against a smaller country, with even more media inflammation on both sides. No wonder everyone is so triggered.
This is why Justin Jackson’s article on calming down came at such a good time. He gives a lot of good tips on how to manage your feelings of anxiety. Works for anger too. I recommend reading it here: https://justinjackson.ca/calm-down
I spent a lot of time those few days just meditating and breathing. And the real life actions I took were sending donations to various charities (www.rescue.org or https://wck.org) supporting Ukrainian refugees. You have to wallow in sadness, helplessness and even anger but you have to let it go. Or it will eventually destroy you.
As the Buddha (and Naval Ravikant) remarked: “Holding on to anger is like grasping a hot coal with the intent of throwing it at someone else; you are the one who gets burned.”
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads Mar 13th, 2022
“Courage Starts with Showing up and Letting Ourselves be Seen”--Brene Brown
Some very interesting nuggets of insight here. Taiwan better get its head out of its ass and their S--t together soon. Tsai's energy policy is absolutely STUPID.
"There’s an idea out there somehow that the Ukrainians were fooled into standing up to Russia by western allies. I don’t think this bears up considering the remarkable amount of bravery displayed by Ukrainians after invasion. I don’t think anybody is capable of telling a Russian warship to “go fuck yourself” without thinking things all the way through."
"However, what the Ukrainian situation does highlight, and rightly so, is the importance of preparedness on the ground. What is Taiwan’s ability to resist in the first 24, 48 and 72 hours? What is the morale of the population by the end of the first week? Will we be relying on the military to get the civilians water, or will it be the other way around?
In my estimation the Ukrainians do not enjoy anywhere near the amount of true international support as the Taiwanese and the reason is kind of brutal: they do not hold a vital part of the global supply chain, they do not sit in a position of key geopolitical importance and they don’t enjoy a fabulously defensible terrain. But the Ukrainians have something we need to work on: extreme willingness to take defense into their own hands. Taiwan needs to at least hold out until help gets here."
https://taipology.substack.com/p/after-ukraine-what-changed-for-taiwan
2. This is a really big deal and hope we do it! Never seen it done but sanctioning the Central Bank of Russia could be devastating.
https://twitter.com/RTPerson3/status/1497731514779553794
3. It’s sad that this is needed but there will be hundreds of thousands of refugees from Ukraine, estimated at 200,000 right now.
https://cytlaw.medium.com/cee-ukrainian-refugee-camp-setup-man-101-997fc0c22b30
4. This is pretty awesome in my opinion. F--k that war supporting Russian Oligarch.
5. This is the ultimate go nuclear approach to crippling a countries finances. I am VERY for crushing Putin and his regime & ULTRA PRO Ukraine sovereignty and independence.
But there are huge ramifications and a precedent for the future if we do this.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/02/how-russian-sanctions-work/622940/
6. This is a good interview to understand what is happening in the Russian aggression in Ukraine with a view from a military vet.
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/video-interview-rob-lee-russian-defense
7. Ukraine is the frontline of freedom & democracy. Similar to how Spanish Civil War was for many in 1930s which attracted many volunteers from all over the world.
Retired British ex-SAS vets going to Ukraine to volunteer and fight. These guys are scary good. #StandwithUkraine
https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/world-news/crack-team-sas-veterans-joining-26350789
8. "So, when you blame the West for paltry sanctions remember that they are dealing with a suicide bomber who might be rigged to blow us all up. There is a reason for the “gently gently, nicely nicely” tone our leaders are taking while at the same time not giving an inch on terms.
It is only human to want justice. To want reparations. To want revenge. Ukrainians will be first on a long line. But, when dealing with someone like this, getting out alive is a win. Half of Russians do not want Putin to be re-elected in 2024, and more than 40 per cent of young Russians want to leave the country. So, he’ll soon be out of office, and out of power anyway.
But, at least he has some possibility of defining his legacy other than the man who dropped a nuke on Western Europe. We know what we all want Mr. Putin to do. We could make it easier for him to take the good road and harder to take the bad one."
https://drpippa.substack.com/p/dead-mans-switch
9. This is important. How we can help the people of Ukraine. Good list of charities. This is the least we can do to try to minimize the suffering there. #standwithukraine
https://www.thecut.com/2022/02/russia-invades-ukraine-how-to-help-the-people-of-ukraine.html
10. "The overall trend of Russia has been to overstep, overplay, or otherwise over-intimidate Ukraine into siding with the West to protect its sovereignty and independence. This war Putin has launched has sealed that fate. There’s no further Putin can go to intimidate, and it is clear with the harsh resistance his army is encountering, his efforts to keep Ukraine in check after any war will be exceptionally expensive. This is the end of any chance to get Ukraine ever again. And it was entirely avoidable by Putin on numerous occasions."
https://stefekrajic.substack.com/p/russia-has-lost-ukraine-forever
11. This Russian invasion & aggression in Ukraine was NEVER going to be popular or supported among the populace in Russia. And far less so in the tech community which counts as the most educated and liberal in the population.
https://techcrunch.com/2022/03/01/russian-it-workers-anti-war-petition
12. This thread explains alot of the blindness and stupidity of the progressives in America.
https://twitter.com/IbrahimAlAssil/status/1498357325060579328
13. This is a very valuable interview to understand the illegal Russian aggression in Ukraine from noted historian and analyst on Russia.
#StandwithUkraine
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ys2zTL-b3eE
14. I believe in the bravery of Ukrainian defenders. But don't underestimate the ability of the Russian army either. This fight is far from over....sadly. Glory to Ukraine & Glory to the Heroes!
"The stiffness of Ukrainian resistance has perhaps surprised observers who expected a rapid defeat. Whether due to Russian incompetence, the value of Western-made weapons supplied to Ukraine, or simply the determination of Ukrainians fighting to defend their country, this has helped international support solidify around Ukraine.
This impressive feat of consensus-building, however, risks the same mistakes that led internationally supported Armenia to a defeat at the hands of militarily superior Azerbaijan in 2020. Wars are fought at the speed of tanks, not tweets. Symbolic victories have their own value, but they cannot ultimately surmount a hard military defeat."
https://www.city-journal.org/putins-bet
15. Very very clever way of fighting Russian gov’t disinformation towards their own people in Russia. Keep it up!
https://mashable.com/article/google-reviews-share-misinformation-russia-ukraine
16. This is a very educational interview with 2 military experts on the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
Alperovitch, Kofman and Lee have been giving the clearest assessments online over the last few weeks.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=u1Wu2py8pP0
17. This is a very good assessment from military experts at West Point on the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Better than garbage & talking heads on media and social media.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zXEvbVoDiU0&t=2s
18. This is a worthwhile discussion. Bestselling author and Israeli historian talks about the implications of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
The world has completely changed because of this. The first time that a sovereign country is being annexed by a larger country since 1945. Borders are sacred.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yQqthbvYE8M
19. Angellist is enabling so much innovation in the VC Space so to me this actually makes sense.
https://techcrunch.com/2022/03/08/angellist-series-c
20. Definitely very useful for all of us these days. How to calm down.
https://justinjackson.ca/calm-down
21. "So the rank ordering is clear: Independence, life, liberty, then the *pursuit* of happiness. And good luck with that.
Although maybe pursuing happiness directly isn’t as effective. Perhaps happiness is more a by-product of the commitments you make: to a calling, a person, a community, to things outside of yourself. Maybe happiness is less something a wearable can tell you, and more your own internal perception of how your life is going. Perhaps to find out if someone’s happy you shouldn’t just ask them if they’re happy, you should instead ask them if they’re proud of themselves."
https://eriktorenberg.substack.com/p/on-hustle-culture
22. "But it is not just black gold, all natural resource prices from gas to grains to tin to gold, you name it, are rising. At the same time tech is taking a dive, a trend already palpable during the first two months of this year, but now we are seeing some real pullback which, truth be told, may have been time anyway.
Once thing appears to remain strong: housing. Interest rates are still low, liquidity is still high and with people on the move from one area to the other demand for real estate will not exactly subside. The one sector that is in dire need of a correction refuses to do so. But think about this: compared to Ukrainians who have been bombed out of their homes most people in Europe and North America are still very well off.
Think that through and see where you can allocate some of your wealth to help those in real need. If we have to pay more for some gas to finally stick it to Putin, then let’s do that."
https://pieterdorsman.substack.com/p/markets-and-ceasefires
23. This so painful to read but rings true. #StandwithUkraine
"Americans have limited attention spans… and there is little evidence of a willingness to sacrifice.
Biden did absolutely the right thing by cutting off the purchase of Russian oil. And yes polls show large, bipartisan majorities of Americans saying they are willing to pay for gas.
But, I’m sorry, have you met your fellow countrymen lately?
For the moment, Americans seem united. But that unity will inevitably come up against ingrained habits, incentives, and bad-faith hackery."
https://morningshots.thebulwark.com/p/five-hard-truths-about-ukraine
24. Seems like a smart move on the US Government front. Co-opt Crypto, don't push it into the dark.
"While many people have been anticipating an abrasive government approach towards bitcoin and cryptocurrencies for years, the current administration seems to be doing the exact opposite — they are looking to embrace this new technology and the potential positive impacts that it can have."
https://pomp.substack.com/p/the-white-house-wants-to-lead-in
25. South Korean Navy Seals are extremely tough men.
This is a brave man going to Ukraine to help fight. Guess this is his penance.
https://www.insider.com/korean-youtuber-ken-rhee-in-ukraine-fight-despite-travel-ban-2022-3
26. This is a bit grim for Russian troops in the convoy to Kyiv. I feel for these Russian kids but frankly feel even worse for Ukrainians being bombed & attacked right now.
https://news.yahoo.com/russian-troops-stranded-40-mile-081212134.html
27. Very good discussion on what’s happening in the world. Russian invasion of Ukraine and the massive economic challenges that will come out in the world in 2022. Worth a watch.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mmRyBpgoS14&t=756s
28. This seems like just the beginning of Kremlin's woes for this insane invasion.
29. Jim Rogers is really perceptive. US dollar dominance is over. Hate it but it's happening. It will be ugly in 2022.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I5AyUiyhWAk
30. Just when you think this year will not get any worse.
Fighting FOMO: Learning to Play Your Own Game
Fear Of Missing Out. FOMO is rife in the interconnected world we are in. Instagram, Facebook, Youtube, Twitter, all the various Social Media and TV. We are mimetic creatures as per Rene Girard and popularized by Peter Thiel. You become the average of the 5 people you spend the most time with. And you cannot help but absorb the ethos, goals and values consciously or subconsciously. We can’t help it, we humans are social creatures. We also want what other people have. We envy other people’s status and most folks are also pretty competitive by nature.
I feel like this is even worse in whatever echo chamber you are in, the Wall Street one, the Hollywood one and where I am, the Silicon Valley one. As an investor, there is always some VC raising more money for their fund than you; an Angel investor getting into better deals, fellow investors with better follower counts on Twitter or PR. Many of these are my friends and I am very happy for them. They earned it. But seeing it all the time, it does make you wonder what you are doing wrong sometimes,
On the founder side, there are always other founders who seem to be crushing it. Raising oodles of venture capital money, being blanketed across social media and talked about in the press. Doing better than YOU!
It’s so easy to get caught up in the noise and start questioning yourself and your own accomplishments. But as you learn in these places; there are always going to be multitudes of people in the world more successful, richer, more accomplished than you. You just have to come to terms with this fact of life. Doesn’t mean you stop competing. I certainly have not. But you can’t let it get you down or discourage you. Keep grinding.
It’s also very easy to start to conflate what you see around you with what you actually want in life. Many of us in the world are fortunate to have so many options and opportunities we can chase. It’s actually debilitating for some due to the “Paradox of Choice”, too many options can almost be as bad as no options.
This is why it’s important to crystallize and really think through what really matters in your life. Ie. Perfect Day exercise (https://hardfork.substack.com/p/the-perfect-day-exercise). It’s critical that you clarify and know: What your core values are and who you want to spend time with and where. Having a daily gratitude exercise also helps.
These are the important touchstones you need to get grounded when you get caught up in the frenzy and FOMO around you. Breathing and Meditation certainly help. Mentors, a community of trusted friends and therapists too. Traveling to get distance and a new perspective is great if you can do it. I also read and write a lot. This blog has been helpful therapy to work out my thoughts. I use all these tools every time I get caught up in envy and start thinking I’m behind or start questioning my path. I look at my Vision board, I breathe, I remember my goals and that I picked this path myself. I also remember that a big driver for my business life now is a focus on optimizing for working with good & smart people who have good values. (https://hardfork.substack.com/p/building-managing-and-living-by-values)
I continually remind myself about the the old internet quote: “Play Stupid Games, Win Stupid Prizes.”
It is a very stupid game if it’s one determined by someone else or set to media or societal or family expectations. I’m playing my own, infinite game and playing it in the way I want. I am careful to keep high standards that are my own and try not to compare myself to others. This helps keep you sane and focused. Not much else you can do beyond this. Focus on the hard work of executing your own master plan. As long as you are moving forward that’s all that matters.