Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads Sept 11th, 2022
“I alone cannot change the world, but I can cast a stone across the waters to create many ripples.” -Mother Teresa
For road warriors and frequent flyers like me.
"If you’re still in the grind here are some ways to make sure you stay in shape without killing your performance on the job.
Step 1 - Prepare: If you know that you will have a long week including travel you should think about it the following way: 1) Heavy leg workout the day before you leave, 2) grab compression socks and wax matrix niacin and 3) if you’re really concerned about bloodflow you can take a baby asprin.
Why? During flights you will recognize that your feet are inflamed. Badly. If you want proof of this simply take off your shoes on the flight and try to put them back on when you land. *Note, don’t be one of those gross people walking around the plane without shoes on*
We’re simply giving you a way to prove out that it is damaging to your body. Blood clots are a real risk to flying."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/skincare-and-working-out-while-grinding
2. A great example of a Portfolio Entrepreneur. One of the best to say the least.
"Though he might wince at the comparison, one commonality Hoffman does share with the onetime hawker of Trump Steaks, Trump University and Trump Tower is a penchant for building businesses—and then writing and talking at length about them.
Hoffman’s multitude of roles, each of which would soak up the bulk of a typical executive’s time, include partner at blue-chip VC firm Greylock, board member at Microsoft, main investor in the SPACs for autonomous vehicle startup Aurora Tech and flying-taxi hopeful Joby Aviation, and founder of a software company, Inflection AI, that’s in quasi stealth mode.
What, I asked, does a typical week look like, given this diverse portfolio? “The principal way I work these days is that I have projects that have CEOs that I’m working with, and I have, as noted by your account, too many projects to be the CEO of something.” Hoffman, sporting a black T-shirt and a mop of tousled hair, was sitting in front of a bucolic printed shoji screen. He said he toggles between these various enterprises depending on where he’s most needed—something he couldn’t do if he were an actual CEO. “That’s the reason why there isn’t, per se, a typical week. Every week is its own unique species.”
Hoffman, who recently turned 55, has been carrying on like this since 2009, when he stepped down for the second time as LinkedIn’s CEO. An early investment in Facebook, coupled with Microsoft’s 2016 purchase of LinkedIn for $26 billion and his 13-year run as a partner at Greylock, have made him a multibillionaire—but clearly not an idle one."
3. "The world is going multipolar – and China is on the rise, aiming to use its newfound wealth and strength to achieve what Chinese President Xi Jinping refers to as his dream of “the great renewal of the Chinese nation”. Reacquiring Taiwan is one of the most important aspects of Xi’s dream, and from Beijing’s perspective, one of the most powerful political figures in the U.S. (dear Nancy) just spit in that dream’s face.
The result? Not World War III, despite the breathless coverage from the media, which will fade away in a few weeks’ time as it has around the still-ongoing war between Russia and Ukraine. China is not powerful enough to conquer Taiwan yet, but make no mistake – China is building up its military capabilities in part so that a threat of force against the renegade island will mean more in the future.
Many U.S. companies that made their products in China are scrambling to rebuild supply chains from scratch, whilst those that remain in China face much higher costs to manufacture goods in China and pass these costs onto the consumer (i.e., you and me) – both of which are inflationary.
And that’s before accounting for what the pandemic and China’s COVID-19 lockdowns have done to disrupt manufacturing on the mainland. Instead of a reprieve in trade ties, a Fourth Taiwan Strait crisis means more trade tension and potential shipping disruptions in and around the South China Sea, which is still where the vast majority of the world’s semiconductors are produced."
https://www.thelykeion.com/a-geopolitical-primer-on-taiwan
4. Go Ukraine!
"So summarising the above into what I think happens. I think we see continued Ukrainian long range attacks on Russian troops in Ukraine, including Crimea, to devastating effect, as the West supplies more long range kit. I think Putin knows he needs a peace deal, but does continue to fuel the energy crisis in Europe over the next few months to boost his leverage in those talks.
I don’t think there will be a defining battle for Kherson, but the defining battle will be the Battle of Supply Chains - Russian military supply chains in Ukraine, and possible European supply chains disrupted as a result of Putin’s energy war in Europe. It’s ironic that both countries strategies are now based on hitting the other deep behind the front lines but with Ukraine this is in southern Ukraine, and for Russia is it in Central Europe, Germany, et al thru energy.
And eventually I think the two sides do end up at peace talks this autumn, likely November, when the first snows are falling and when Putin will be nervous about leaving his military in an enemy field during freezing temperatures.
Question will be how far Putin will be prepared to compromise, and can Zelensky accept any territorial concessions now, or is he and Ukraine willing to fight on until all Ukrainian territory is liberated. And I guess I worry if Putin is willing to play the Z-card - Zaporizhiya NPP?"
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/ukraine-prospects-for-peace
5. Good summary of the Russian invasion of Ukraine so far from a very smart, qualified guy for once. (US/Nato General). Slava Ukraini!
https://twitter.com/MarkHertling/status/1561042285214810112
6. We can all be much more supportive of each other down our chosen paths. It really matters.
"Feiler argues that most people think of life as a smooth linear path. If you ask most 21-year-olds, including me at the time, you’d probably get them telling you this is how life will go. Yet in his extensive research into how people’s lives actually play out, he found that the reality was much different. Instead of being defined by a line, the thing that shaped people’s lives was a steady stream of “disruptors.” Most people have about three dozen disruptors in their lives, meaning on average people face things that send them in new directions every 12-18 months."
"This can be life-changing to someone. Yet so few people do it.
This is why people like Tyler Cowen are so inspiring. He has taken a weird path, reached a level of status and success, and now puts a ton of effort into supporting hundreds, if not thousands, follow bold paths through his program Emergent Ventures.
Why doesn’t everyone have a Tyler Cowen-type person in their family or community? It’s a damn shame.
The good news is that you know all this now and realize that even if someone seems confident, they probably aren’t. Even people on the default path need encouragement and supporters.
I’ve talked to countless people of all life stages, income levels, ethnic backgrounds, and life conditions and it’s pretty clear - everyone is a bit uneasy and everyone could use a little more support."
https://boundless.substack.com/p/believe-in-others-193
7. "I do not consider myself a military or geopolitical expert, so there is a good chance I’m not seeing the big picture here. But I can’t deny that a lot of what Prince says resonates with my current thinking and/or experience of the world. This especially applies to his matter-of-fact economic analysis.
Prince points to the failure of the West’s attempt to bring China into the liberal fold via a strategy of making it rich. He says this strategy is responsible for much of what ails us. He also blames the over-domination of corporate monopolies and a lack of competition for entrenching an overly bureaucratic and ineffective state system. Nor is he a fan of easy money. He has some fairly clear-cut thoughts about the politicisation (or deneutralisation as I call it ) of the dollar — as well as the role that Russian sanctions are likely to play in further undermining the global reserve currency. Can’t fault him on any of that."
So what can we learn from this? There’s a lot to be drawn out from Prince’s views on things that go beyond Afghanistan.
Other notable points in the interview include Prince’s thoughts about bitcoin, crypto and gold. His concern about the rise of a “social credit system” surveillance state, which he says he will fight tooth and nail against. His role in running an assassination bureau that operated in “soft” jurisdictions like Germany. How the Russians had invited him to basically start what would become the Wagner group, but he turned them down in a move that he says proved he wasn’t a mere profiteer.
And his experiences in Eastern Europe as a kid and how they informed his opinion of communism. And much more…
That a mercenary favours gold and bitcoin and emphasises the importance of paying good wages to soldiers, of course, shouldn’t really be that surprising. It was true in Julius Caesar’s day, and it remains true today.
But that’s kind of the key point of this interview. It emphasises the degree to which the more things change, the more they actually stay the same. The same old forces still influence everything. The mercenary field may not be the oldest profession in the world, but it’s certainly high up there. And those who have the capacity to raise private armies are politically contentious for a reason."
https://the-blindspot.com/when-high-profile-mercenaries-have-opinions-about-markets-and-more
8. Gil has been one of the more disciplined investors in the last few years of crazy (because he is experienced and knows what’s up).
"Healthy atmosphere. But the other thing that has changed is the atmosphere. For the first time in a long time, all of our conversations with founders are grounded in reality. Founders are asking for reasonable amounts of capital at reasonable terms to achieve potentially extraordinary things with manageable risk. There is time for conversation, time for questions, time to get to know one another, and time to align. There is a return of mutual appreciation and respect. We tremendously respect founders that are making reasonable asks, driving reasonable burn rates, and taking on risk — and founders, in turn, seem to have a new appreciation for the real risk that investors are taking by believing in them."
"So right now — when so many investors and over-funded companies are struggling to adapt to the new environment — now is exactly the right time for us to double down on what we do — and what we have always done."
https://medium.com/angularventures/for-early-stage-venture-its-go-time-eca7b4ecda70
9. Worth reviewing. For founders who want to know what’s happening in the fundraising market right now.
https://www.linkedin.com/feed/update/urn:li:activity:6966490532126633984
10. I like this concept of Gorilla in tech, so much better than Unicorn.
"In nature, gorillas are impressive creatures. The same is true in business, where a Gorilla is a startup that has (1) surpassed a valuation of $1B and is (2) generating an annual net revenue run rate above $100M. Most importantly, these startups are on track to becoming enduring, generationally defining businesses.
With 1,250+ global unicorns, it’s safe to assume only a small fraction are Gorillas. Whether the name becomes vernacular or not, a stronger focus on business fundamentals seems appropriate now more than ever."
https://medium.com/susa-ventures/strive-to-be-a-gorilla-not-just-a-unicorn-d033ed341e8c
11. This is a worthwhile interview with controversial Erik Prince. Lots of very good insight here on where the world is going from a geopolitical perspective.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nwK_XLFOm_I
12. "I’m not suggesting for a moment you should stash your assets in a hidden Panamanian bank account like Iceland’s former prime minister did—over the years I’ve learned that your government will almost inevitably find out if you’re doing something shady. But I am saying that if there’s a legal means for you to pay less tax to your government overlords, you should take it.
Because many of your government overlords are doing the same.
If you own a company in Sweden, why wouldn’t you move it to Hungary to cut your tax bill by more than half? Or if you’re a location-independent entrepreneur, why not consider moving your legal address to Georgia, a nation that’ll allow you to legally pay just 1% tax?
Obviously, most of the benefits of being able to cut a huge chunk out of your yearly tax bill come when you stop being a paid employee, and structure your life around your own business, company, or solo enterprise. This is why Sorelle and I believe that generating an independent income is the most important first step in becoming a more free global citizen."
https://abundantia.substack.com/p/burn-the-witch
13. This is a great initiative. We owe our veterans more.
"The two have been paired together through Hives for Heroes, a Houston-based nonprofit that helps veterans take up beekeeping by matching them with experienced mentors. The project tackles two disparate problems: the mental health risks that veterans face when they separate from service and the declining population of honeybees.
Launched in 2018 by Marine Corps veteran Steve Jimenez, a Houstonian whose rough transition back to civilian life was transformed by beekeeping, the project has expanded to every state and matched more than 1,200 veterans—“newbees,” in the group’s parlance—with beekeeping mentors.
Hives for Heroes aims to give its novice beekeepers the same benefits. The project harnesses veterans’ desire to be of service—they’re helping the environment, and some volunteer to relocate unwanted colonies from walls and trees—and can lead to a new career. (Though not all beekeepers harvest honey, some do turn the hobby into a business.)
The mentor beekeeper—sometimes a fellow veteran, often a non-veteran civilian—is a supportive presence and a connection to the larger beekeeping community. For some combat veterans, the element of danger is an attractive challenge. And all participants develop bee-yard mindfulness out of necessity. If they rush or their minds wander, they’re more likely to get stung."
https://www.texasmonthly.com/travel/veterans-finding-new-mission-in-beekeeping
14. "If you hadn't had that experience with your injury, would you have ever become this mission-driven leader?
No. It knocked the hell out of me. You know, it knocked out all the narcissism, it knocked out that I knew everything."
https://theprofile.substack.com/p/mark-bertolini-interview
15. "George Leonidas Leslie led a double life: By day, he was a distinguished architect who hobnobbed with New York City’s elite denizens; by night, he was one of history’s most prolific bank robbers.
Unlike other heisters of his time, Leslie’s approach was academic rather than brutish. He studied the anatomy of locks, drafted up blueprints of banks, and invented mechanical safe-breaking devices.
During his “career,” authorities estimated that his exploits accounted for 80% of all bank robberies in the entire US during his active years of 1869-78.
Altogether, he stole at least $7m ($200m in today’s money), much of it pilfered from the bank vaults of America’s wealthiest titans.
The final bank heist he orchestrated is still, to this day, the largest in US history — an astounding $81m haul, adjusted for inflation."
https://thehustle.co/the-architect-who-became-the-king-of-bank-robberies
16. "Pretty much everyone in that world, from the millions of small-scale crypto holders to industry employees and investors, has watched in shock and dismay as Three Arrows Capital, once perhaps the most highly regarded investment fund in a burgeoning global financial sector, collapsed in excruciating and embarrassing fashion. The firm’s implosion, a result of both recklessness and likely criminal misconduct, set off a contagion that not only forced a historic sell-off in bitcoin and its ilk but also wiped out a wide swath of the cryptocurrency industry."
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/three-arrows-capital-kyle-davies-su-zhu-crash.html
17. Japan is on the rise. A critical military ally against the CCP.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QB-fBGMJVR8
18. This could be the future: investing directly in talent! Love this.
"In Central Park, they told me that, with Maria and Anna, they’d created an entity called Libermans Co. It held all the income from their enterprises; any debts, assets, and profits they might gain; and any investments they might make or companies they might start for the next thirty years. They had gathered all these elements and sold shares in the whole, offering investors, effectively, a stake in their entire financial future—shares in their life.
So far, the Libermans have traded around three per cent of their futures, which investors have valued at four hundred million dollars, or about a hundred million dollars per Liberman. They spent a few months in conversation with the Securities and Exchange Commission to list themselves on the stock market, which they hope to do by 2023.
The Libermans’ theory is that, in terms of stuff that America’s big wealth can invest in, people are more appealing than the current catalogue of middling venture-capital funds, shipping firms, and companies selling toothbrushes by mail. Instead of putting money into a fund for startups, investors would be free to find an ingenious entrepreneur and invest in her entire career.
Rather than buying shares of Spotify, a fund could buy into a portfolio of the futures of emerging hip-hop artists, all of whom would get that cash. Most of us are more excited about our brilliant friends than about the companies they work for. And while the average age of an S. & P. 500 company is approximately twenty years—most die young—people do better. The stronger their boost off the blocks, the longer they can keep trying, increasing their odds of success."
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2022/08/01/is-selling-shares-in-yourself-the-way-of-the-future
19. "Decluttering our lives from things, thoughts, and people that doesn’t propel us forward makes us lighter, faster, and happier. Everything becomes easier as there is nothing cluttering up our time, attention, and creative energy.
Every day becomes a white space that we can fill with meaning but also leave open for surprise discoveries. Our calendars are no longer fully booked, our spaces are clean and easily manageable, and our thoughts are crisp and clear, brain fog gone."
https://fewerbetterthings.substack.com/p/towards-fewer-better-things-thoughts
20. This was a personally helpful discussion. Searching for self-actualization, gaining courage and finding your path.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q91g7IohQAE
21. "Let’s go back a century to Weimar. Most speculators knew that the government had lost control and that the only path forward was to print money. However, occasionally the politicians would try and arrest the inflation—as inflation crushes voters. Sometimes, it was an offhand quote from a government official, sometimes it was concrete action.
The market would convulse in panic, only to find that the authorities had zero tolerance for pain. Voters hate inflation, but they hate losing their jobs even worse. Politicians work for the speculators, not the voters—caught in a stall-speed between inflation and depression, politicians will almost always choose inflation. However, there were brief moments where the market believed the politicians—or at least worried that they’d lose control to the downside and things would crash.
Once again, the trick to navigating what is coming is to stay as long as possible, while not getting taken out during the inevitable pullbacks. If your timing is good, you can add size at the end of each pullback and dramatically increase your returns, especially as the amplitude of each incremental move will usually be greater—besides, as money gets debased, it is imperative to have some financial leverage."
https://adventuresincapitalism.com/2022/08/22/the-pause
22. "Spending more money on research is really the key here, because that’s what creates demand. Yes, supply of research inputs is important — we need lots of high-skilled immigrants, and we need to push more Americans to go into STEM. But unless there are jobs for those researchers, Americans will be discouraged from going into the field, and the presence of immigrants will seem like a cutthroat zero-sum competition. Spending more money ensures that anyone who has the talent can see their talent put to work.
So far, the current U.S. industrial policy revival has been a bit disappointing on this front. The CHIPS Act lobbed a bunch of money at the semiconductor industry, but this represented a vastly scaled-down bill that chopped out most of the best parts of an earlier version called the Endless Frontier Act. The Endless Frontier Act could have revitalized U.S. scientific research, far beyond the narrow confines of the chip industry, but our congressional leaders simply didn’t see the point.
Well, the point should be obvious now. When China has quantum computers a million times faster than Google’s, satellites that can talk securely with the Earth via quantum entanglement, quantum magnetometers that can (possibly) find our most secret submarines, and autonomous drone swarms that can fly through dense forests, Congress would have to be insane to worry about pinching a few pennies.
The U.S. hasn’t fallen behind in science yet. But in order to avoid falling behind, at least in many key areas, we need to take bold action now."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/the-war-economy-is-america-falling
23. "Above all, war is more than battles and operations. Regardless of the technology, it is, as Thucydides reminds us, the human aspects that matter most. If the public embrace the desire to fight to survive, are willing to endure and sacrifice, then systems will become less important. Even where superior and overwhelming firepower is employed, if a population refuses to submit, they will endure defeats in battle and keep fighting. Multi-domain integration determines only how to fight; it will not necessarily determine who wins wars."
https://engelsbergideas.com/notebook/human-behaviour-will-still-determine-who-wins-wars
24. Talk about mortgaging your country's future.
"Well, not really. The Erdogan administration might be able to muddle thru to elections, but at the price of the deterioration in Turkey’s balance sheet in the interim.
Russia might be allowing Turkey to pay in borrowed rubles, but they still have to be paid back, and these likely will create a liability on the next government to emerge after elections, AKP or otherwise.
Similarly, if the strategy it to continue to intervene to defend the lira, FX reserves will be spent, and the CBRT’s net international reserve position will deteriorate even further than it’s current estimated minus $60bn number.
All this does not resolve the underlying problem that Turkey is living beyond its means, too much growth now, not enough saving, and the accumulation of more external debt liabilities which need to be paid back, whether to Russia or the Gulf.
And in the case of debts to Russia, one had to ask what an absolutely malign character like Putin will demand of the new credits he has extended to Erdogan? But we know for sure that he will come knocking on Turkey’s door in the future and the payback will likely include a big wad of usury which Putin certainly believes in. Putin will extract a heavy’s price on Erdogan, and especially if this results in his re-election next year. Erdogan will owe Putin.
And what about the Gulf money? It’s hard really to imagine MBS, with all his tortuous history with Erdogan lending to keep the latter in power in Turkey unless a heavy pay back is expected - likely in lucrative Turkish assets being put up for sale to Gulf interests at some point in the future."
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/erdogans-economic-plan-for-elections
25. Great profile here on Idris Elba, who is aging like a fine wine. All men should aspire to be like this man. A very cool dude.
https://www.mensjournal.com/entertainment/idris-elba-mens-journal-cover-story
26. "CBDCs enable all of those financial censorship capabilities with one click of a button. Everything being collected leaves you in a very scary position.
If you carbon footprint is too large, fines automatically removed. Financial censorship on steroids.
If you read up on CBDCs from the rest of the central banks, like the Sand Dollar and the e-CNY, you’re going to find they all have the same motivations as China and the Bahamas. Tracking and controlling you, your money, and removing any and all privacy.
During the middle of the lockdowns, Summer 2020, only 35 countries were even deciding, whether or not, to develop or launch a CBDC. Now, over 80% of all central banks are active in developing a CBDC - making up over 95% of global GDP.
The central banks all have the same talking points, and they all recite the same “initiatives” for developing a CBDC. Best to be listening and developing your multiple income streams as fast as you can."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/cbdc-update-with-bowtiedscholar
27. Congrats to Timmu and the team. Proud investor here.
https://a16z.com/2022/08/23/investing-in-ready-player-me
28. An investing legend. Father of the baby cubs: a multitude of very successful hedge funds. RIP Julian Robertson.
https://fortune.com/2022/08/23/julian-robertson-hedge-fund-billionaire-tiger-cubs-dies-at-90
29. The CCP & their enablers are the enemy of America & the western free world.
"In that sense, in contrast to the Nazis’ militaristic imperialism, the CCP has resurrected a more ancient form of imperialism in which they’ve bought and groomed foreign elites to be more loyal to them than to their own people. Since the early 19th century, no illiberal regime besides the Soviet Union has had the wherewithal to co-opt western elites to that degree, and relations with the Soviet Union were limited. But the amount of western cash running through China over the last few decades appears to have made this ancient form of imperialism viable for the CCP.
This is, by all accounts, a sad story. China is running out of money. The CCP made promises to the Chinese people that they couldn’t keep, and they’re therefore resorting to increasingly ruthless ways of obtaining cash while dragging the world into totalitarianism with them, as we saw with lockdowns. They’re simultaneously resorting to increasingly ruthless methods of robbing their own people, such as bank defaults and jailings of billionaires, while doubling down on domestic controls.
Decoupling from China need not be permanent. China is a great civilization, and I have no doubt that China can right itself and rectify its institutions within our lifetime. But we can’t risk our democracy and the lives of our young people while we wait for that to happen. We need to be on the highest level of alert with regard to the CCP and treat the war as if it’s already begun. There’s presently no legitimate reason why we should be engaging with Xi’s China any differently than Nazi Germany or the Soviet Union."
https://michaelpsenger.substack.com/p/the-china-situation-isnt-as-bad-as
30. Shameful policy by grossly incompetent or corrupt political elites in Germany.
"Half a century later, in 2020, Russia would supply more than half of Germany’s natural gas and about a third of all the oil that Germans burned to heat homes, power factories and fuel vehicles. Roughly half of Germany’s coal imports, which are essential to its steel manufacturing, came from Russia.
An arrangement that began as a peacetime opening to a former foe has turned into an instrument of aggression. Germany is now funding Russia’s war. In the first two months after the start of Russia’s assault on Ukraine, Germany is estimated to have paid nearly €8.3bn for Russian energy – money used by Moscow to prop up the rouble and buy the artillery shells firing at Ukrainian positions in Donetsk. In that time, EU countries are estimated to have paid a total of €39bn for Russian energy, more than double the sum they have given to help Ukraine defend itself.
The irony is painful. “For thirty years, Germans lectured Ukrainians about fascism,” the historian Timothy Snyder wrote recently. “When fascism actually arrived, Germans funded it, and Ukrainians died fighting it.
When Putin invaded Ukraine in February, Germany faced a particular problem. Its rejection of nuclear power and its transition away from coal meant that Germany had very few alternatives to Russian gas. Berlin has been forced to accept that it was a cataclysmic error to have made itself so dependent on Russian energy – whatever the motives behind it.”
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jun/02/germany-dependence-russian-energy-gas-oil-nord-stream
31. China is in very deep doo doo (just like many other places in the world these days).
"Whichever way you look at it, Beijing is walking a tightrope. And the scale of the risks is unprecedented not just for China but also for the wider world. Matt Klein may be right in his recent FT piece to argue that from the point of view of inflation-fighting, the deflationary effect of China’s slowdown is welcome at this current moment.
But to take the next step to argue that “China’s troubles may be just what the rest of the world needs”, is surely to push a good point too far. It may be true that “China’s healthy exports and weak imports” were previously a “drag on the global economy, depriving workers elsewhere of the incomes they would have earned selling goods and services to Chinese customers.”
But that is a counterfactual argument. A better world is, indeed, imaginable in which China’s current account since the late 1990s was more balanced. Fair enough. Meanwhile, in the actually existing world economy, there are plenty of workers and businesses around the globe who depend heavily on exports to China. None of them will be celebrating bad news from China as good news, especially in light of the pressure also being exercised by a strong dollar and Fed tightening."
https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-145-china-on-the-tightrope
32. No one feels sorry for the rich tech bros & VC, nor should they.
"The biggest critics of the government are, oddly, some of its biggest beneficiaries. Tech billionaires are often the first to shitpost America, even as they continue to harvest wealth from the investments taxpayers make via the U.S. government.
A wonderful thing about our country is that the people who are most patriotic are the ones who’ve made the greatest investment: veterans. Less heartening are the individuals who’ve registered the greatest benefit, are the least grateful, and are often the most critical: VCs who relocate to Miami and, before buying sunblock, disparage (constantly) the state they built their wealth in. Also, mega-welfare queens who cash EV subsidy checks and sell carbon credits as they mock the elected leaders who passed those laws.
BTW, nobody believes you moved to Florida or Texas for better governance — you wanted the chance to recognize a capital gain at a lower tax rate than the middle-class taxpayers who funded your infrastructure."
https://www.profgalloway.com/welfare-queens
33. The west needs to get off its act together and stop the half ass support of Ukraine. Send weapons and money asap so Ukraine can finish the barbarian Russian invaders.
"The great hope of Western governments was that Western economic sanctions would have a material effect on Russia’s ability and willingness to sustain the war against Ukraine. Battlefield attrition and economic attrition would combine to force Moscow to sue for peace. This, of course, depends on actually making a serious dent on the Russian economy. Six months into the conflict, how far that has been achieved is hotly contested.
As Zelensky knows, the stakes could not be higher. If, at the six-month mark, Ukraine now faces a long war, then stability is crucial. And that stability must be secured, not just on the frontlines, but on the home front as well, which is “highly contested too”. Otherwise, when Kyiv comes to mark the 12-month anniversary and the 18th-month anniversaries in 2023, the narrative may be less up beat than it is today."
https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/chartbook-146-the-russia-ukraine
34. This is an immensely disturbing trend from Korea that seems to be showing up all over the modern world.
"The only think I can think of is that women’s entry into the workforce may explain most of this, childcare is a high additional cost as opposed to a social default. Whatever the answer is, the west may stave off the consequences of the population crunch for a while with its willingness to import foreign workers, but the same can’t be said of advanced Asian nations.
We’re peering into the biggest selection event humans have faced in some time. I’m not normally worried about much but I am worried about this."
https://sotonye.substack.com/p/bloomberg-south-korea-crosses-a-population
35. Good read if you are considering doing angel investing in startups.
https://mikegreenfield.substack.com/p/why-im-an-angel-investor
36. Focus on comparing yourself to global maximum not the local maximum.
https://chrisneumann.com/blog/can-you-beat-my-friends
37. "In Vietnam, Afghanistan and many other conflicts, the stronger power lost because it could not win, and the weaker power triumphed simply because it did not lose. So shall it be in Ukraine, where the same process is playing out rapidly."
https://thehill.com/opinion/international/3606352-putins-on-the-brink
38. "The war in Ukraine has shown how a well-led, motivated and well-supplied defending force can effectively disrupt or even defeat an adversary with superior size and military means. At a minimum, the strength of contemporary defensive regimes means that defenders can significantly inflict significant costs, and prolong the duration, of an aggressor’s military aggression.
Lessons in areas such as leadership, multidomain integration, signature management, closing ‘detection to destruction’ time against an adversary, massed use of crewed and uncrewed systems, information operations and industrial scale warfare are likely to be prevalent in these studies. These will all drive institutional adaptation."
https://engelsbergideas.com/essays/how-ukraine-is-winning-in-the-adaptation-battle-against-russia
39. "But the real lesson of recent days is that events are spiraling out of the Kremlin’s control. Not one element of the original plan to attack Ukraine has survived contact with reality.
Morale has not fractured. Neither has Western support. Attrition and bad leadership steadily weaken the Russian forces while Ukraine’s military is becoming stronger, with better training and more modern equipment. Whether by sabotage, or through drone and missile strikes, Ukraine is hitting targets that the Kremlin did not think it would need to defend.
Retribution indeed: these attacks undermine a crucial Kremlin narrative about the conflict’s limited geographic and military scale. Russia thought it could limit the fighting to Ukraine. But nobody asked the Ukrainians about that."
40. Investing in climate tech is hard. Important but hard for generalist VCs like me.
"I’ve sadly come to the conclusion though that in order to be successful, you need some billionaires to back you eventually. This is by no means a bad thing (yes a lot of billionaires get negative press) as I couldn’t be happier that they are focusing their efforts and resources on a HUGE problem. It’s just that in my limited knowledge and quest to find something early pre/seed I find investable, they will need to continually raise capital and there aren’t many options as they grow."
41. Ukraine will win because of people like this: James Vasquez (and due to the indomitable will of Ukrainian people). Slava Ukraini!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OaESL5WeMsk
42. Go NAFO! Down with brain dead Vatniks!
Feast or Famine: Know Where you Are in the Cycle (Copy)
2022 has in some ways been one of the more debilitating years for many people. Yes, we are coming out of the pandemic. But right into an inflationary & commodities/ energy-driven world recession, exacerbated by a massive land war in Europe (May God curse Putin and his cronies). The money printing boom times of 2020-2021 are over and truly was “the best of times and the worst of times”.
It’s interesting being in the tech ecosystem these days, talking to founders and investors who are literally in shock. Especially new and young ones who have never been through a downturn.
Valuations have gone down, due diligence has gone up, rounds are smaller with a few certain exceptions like founders with massive previous exits.
The lesson is that World works in cycles. Life is in cycles. Cycles always turn. The eternal parable of ant and cricket still holds. For anyone who is wondering as per Wikipedia:
“The fable concerns a grasshopper (in the original, a cicada) that has spent the summer singing and dancing while the ant (or ants in some versions) worked to store up food for winter. When winter arrives, the grasshopper finds itself dying of hunger and begs the ant for food. However, the ant rebukes its idleness and tells it to dance the winter away now.”
The point: enjoying life during the summer is fine but winter always eventually comes, so you need to prepare.
Personally, I’ve always wondered whether it’s better to grow up in good times or grow up in bad times. And the implications of either growing up rich or growing up poor?
Growth is good as a rising tide lifts all boats, almost everyone is happy making money. But the downside is you end up learning really bad habits and your spending and cost structure goes up as you expect this to last forever. You get sloppy, fat and usually spoiled. And this is especially lethal for investors in bull markets as the much repeated comment stands: “The four most dangerous words are ‘This time it’s different.”
On the other hand, growing up in recession, you end up in survival mode which makes you scrappy & to abhor waste (ie. Become very efficient). But you end up with a mindset of scarcity that is hard to grow out of, something I’ve personally struggled with. You tend to think win lose (not win-win) because you are literally getting a scarce resource over some else.
And many times, using a poker analogy, when times turn good and you have a strong hand, you tend to play things Tight ie. more cautious and defensive which limits growth versus being more aggressive as the new situation calls for.
Everything is a double edge sword. Having been fortunate or maybe just plain old, I’ve been through about 5 downturns now. (Ie. “Be wary of an old man in a young person's game”).
So I tend to be somewhat paranoid in good times but also know for a fact that bad times don’t last. You need to try to avoid being overly exuberant/ optimistic or too depressed/ down. As long as you keep fighting and trying, you can outlast bad times which I hope everyone out there takes to heart. Cycles always turn.
The Breaking of the Modern Mind: The Curse of the Attention Economy
There are many accusations that we are getting dumber. I actually think it’s more that our attention spans are shorter and thus our ability to do deep thinking and focused work is declining. Which maybe is another way of saying maybe we are getting dumber.
The internet, the smartphone & social media have overall been a boon. We have access to unfathomable amounts of information from all over the world. But like all technology, it’s a blade that cuts both ways. We have too much information and it’s easy to get distracted. In fact during small breaks we are drawn to our phones to fight boredom. Yet boredom also allows your brain to ponder things it would otherwise not think about.
I remember in the 1999 and even early 2000s I would just spend hours reading a book. I’d finish 3-5 books in a weekend. I find it hard to do now. Maybe it’s due to old age or just being a parent. Or a busier work schedule and duties. But I don't think that's it. I find my attention span being so much shorter now that I can’t focus for more than 20-30 minutes straight.
Actually according to an old study by Microsoft back in 2015 actually, “people now generally lose concentration after eight seconds, highlighting the effects of an increasingly digitalized lifestyle on the brain.”
(Source:https://time.com/3858309/attention-spans-goldfish)
I can’t imagine how much worse it is now, 7 years later with more social media, more devices and just so much more of everything.
This is a pretty big issue if you want to thrive. Especially in a world of work that requires deep work and clear thinking. This is kind of the only work that matters now. We need more thinking, not less. In fact, I worry about this upcoming younger generation like my daughters that does not know anything different. It’s digital screen time from a young age.
In fact, French philosopher Pascal Blaise so wisely wrote in the 1600s, "All of humanity's problems stem from man's inability to sit quietly in a room alone."
So how am I combating this? It’s through a few specific tactics and activities that have massive benefits in the rest of my life. It’s stuff you should be doing anyways, but it’s another good reason to do more of the following:
Exercise
Meditation
Time away from screens Ie. Read more books
More writing but through use pen and paper not typing
Time in nature
It’s just a start but I know that if I don’t try to conquer this issue now, it will be a much harder habit to build as my brain ages.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads Sept 4th, 2022
“Our dilemma is that we hate change and love it at the same time; what we really want is for things to remain the same but get better.” -Sydney J. Harris
"Fear is a costly source of fuel.
We tell ourselves we are keeping ourselves safe by being mindful of our fears. I often hear from clients, “If I keep the thing I am afraid of in front of me, I can be sure of avoiding it.”
In my experience, this is a bit like driving a race car staring at the wall. If you talk with a racecar driver, they will tell you, “If you look at the wall, you will hit the wall.”
https://www.mattmunson.me/fear
2. "Moscow appears to wish to incorporate seized territory into Russia, for which they are preparing some dubious procedures that will impress nobody but themselves. Deep down for Moscow the war may now be all about denying NATO the satisfaction of a Ukrainian victory and saving Putin’s face. There is nonetheless something increasingly desperate about Russian rhetoric and behaviour.
The Russian military position is deteriorating and the West’s backing for Ukraine has yet to slacken. The trends therefore favour Ukraine. At some Putin and his cronies will have to work out how long they can continue to pretend that they have a credible path to victory."
https://samf.substack.com/p/winning-through-attrition
3. I am a proponent of remote work btw: but there are advantages to being in office too.
"Remote work for young people is often … a bad idea. The office is where you build relationships and find mentors. And mentors are the people who become emotionally invested in your success. That same Harvard study of call center workers found that, despite greater productivity, working from home decreased the probability of getting a promotion by 12%.
Another study found that people who work from home are 38% less likely to receive a bonus. There are usually several people qualified for each promotion. The job will typically go to the person who has the best relationship with the decider. And relationships are a function of proximity. If this sounds unfair, and just bullshit facetime … trust your instincts. The corporate world and small injustices will be synonyms for a long time. This isn’t to say young people shouldn’t have opportunities for remote work. However, the conversation coming is … “OK, but you will make less money.” In some cases, it may be worth it. Some.
If you’re an employer, the office is your primary tool for facilitating culture.
In contrast, for those of you starting your career — before you collect dogs and spouses, find an employer who offers an increasingly important benefit, an office. My time at UCLA was rewarding. But my first job, at Morgan Stanley, was more educational.
In two years I found a mentor who was irrationally passionate about my success, learned (sort of) how to read a room, navigated around a senior exec who kept asking me out (yes, this happens to men), and learned how to succeed, or not, in a society called the workplace. If you do not enter the physical workplace early, you’ll miss opportunities and stressors that will make you stronger and more capable."
https://www.profgalloway.com/work-from-office
4. "The Russian military has been on the defensive and been bleeding terribly—literally and metaphorically. Yet, the Russian regime keeps increasing the political objectives of the war. Simply put, as the Russian capabilities decrease, its objectives increase.
Here we can learn from history. This is what Kaiser Wilhelm did during World War I. His military capabilities were shrinking, and the German people knew about it and were forced to bear additional burdens so war resources could keep coming. So the kaiser presented the troubles caused by the war as an investment: The more you sacrifice, dear German people, the more you will get in the end.
In other words, to keep the Germans happy, he kept promising more. It was a domestic political gamble. And it worked for a few years, but, eventually, the German people revolted, and the German Revolution of 1918 ended his rule."
https://shaykhatiri.substack.com/p/the-russian-revolution
5. "An intelligent global energy policy with nuclear power as a foundation can provide abundance to all humanity with minimal impact on the environment. Without hyperbole, there is no path to a decarbonized economy that avoids mass starvation and economic collapse without nuclear power, and the hardest opponents of the technology know it.
As uncomfortable a thought as it is, the history of the funding, propaganda, and influence around the anti-nuclear sentiment was born out of a non-fringe belief that the preferred solution to the population “problem” was not more abundant energy to support such growth, but rather, fewer people to compete for available resources. Proselytizing nuclear waste as a meaningful issue became a convenient, palatable vehicle used to veer the discourse until it took hold generally. Today, this is done either by those who are victims of such propaganda or are knowing architects of it."
https://doomberg.substack.com/p/malthusian-malarkey
6. "That discipline teaches you things about your mind, and all this is really important. I think it's no different from jumping in ice cold water. It stresses your mind out and you have to slow it down. You have to actively slow down and control those things.
Food can be an addiction. Sugar is an addiction. Our phone is an addiction. All these things need to be cleansed out of your life in some way—it helps your mind get stronger and it helps you become stronger as a person. It helps you help other people; it helps you become more mindful of what's going on for others.
You can help other people who are struggling with things, and you become aware and get epiphanies about while you're going through these processes for yourself. That should be number one importance for people: One’s own personal health ahead of everything."
https://www.gq.com/story/real-life-diet-kelly-slater
7. I really have to watch this movie. Good interview with Dakota Beavers who plays Taab.
"If anybody can take any advice from Taab, you don't have to be a jerk to be tough. You can be kind. You can love your neighbor. You can love your family, and you can still be a warrior. You don’t have to cut your heart off."
https://www.gq.com/story/prey-dakota-beavers
8. Expanding and paring back. This is a process that never ends.
"We’re all involved in this that we probably shouldn’t be. At a point in the past, you signed up for something that you thought was a good idea at the time. It could be a volunteer position or group that you’re a part of. It could be a business venture or a part-time job. It could be a hobby or some other ongoing commitment.
The only reason that you’re still doing it is because you made a decision a several months or years back that it was a good idea. You would never sign-up for it again today, but haven’t stopped doing whatever it is because you perceive that the pain of maintaining the status quo is less than the pain of making a change."
https://www.mattpaulson.com/2014/11/why-you-should-say-no-to-side-projects
9. "But recently, as the dust has settled a bit, I am seeing the best entrepreneurs realize that now is the time to play offense. The “play offense” playbook is well known to many, but hard to execute during a downturn.
Funds have raised an enormous amount of capital in the last two years. Never before in the history of entrepreneurship has there been this extraordinary amount of committed capital designated to invest in startups. If you have built a good business with promising prospects, you can stand out from the crowd far more easily today than ever before. Yes, your valuation may be 20–40% lower than you had hoped, but you can still raise plenty of money to buttress your balance sheet and execute more vigorously on steps 1–5 of the “play offense” playbook outlined above."
https://medium.com/@bussgang/now-is-the-time-to-play-offense-4a5e6d0e9f1a
10. "Although we live in an extremely prosperous world, the simple fact is that most people are still struggling financially. They’re either working two jobs just to make ends meet, or have been hit so harshly by inflation that they can now barely afford the new cost of living.
When a person is living in survival mode, they don’t have time to wonder if the narrative they’re being fed is true, or to spend time trying to change the world around them—their mental energy is dedicated to survival alone. Scientific studies show that living in poverty or financial stress affects the mind so heavily that it can even lower one’s IQ by 13 points.
Basically, when you’re struggling, your mind simply doesn’t work as it should. And to me, that’s why so much of the deceit in our world is allowed to exist. Because critical thinking and questioning require a lot of brainpower.
To me, it isn’t a conspiracy that people are kept broke, dumb, and sick. It’s a tactic that’s been used for thousands of years to deflect people’s attention away from the grand machinations that keep the world exactly as it is, to benefit the few at the very top."
https://abundantia.substack.com/p/apes-together-strong
11. YES! Slava Ukraini!
"Forced to fight front and rear, distracted and attacked on all sides, Russian morale will continue to deteriorate. When Russia’s logistical lines are stretched to breaking point and combat effectiveness has reached its nadir, Ukraine will unleash hardy offensives. The first blow may come in Kherson, or it may fall elsewhere, but the offensive will come.
Russian combat forces will be attacked by units of the Ukrainian military, and Russian support and logistical units will be besieged by partisans. Donetsk and Luhansk will be liberated, and Russia will be driven to the border – just as they were driven back from Kyiv.
This war will not end soon. Russian and Ukrainian losses will continue. And make no mistake – Putin will not suddenly realize the error of his ways and pursue peace. He must be defeated on the battlefield.
And right now, that defeat is more possible than ever."
12. Good perspective on SF Bay Area ie. Silicon Valley: its a bit underwhelming.
"Don’t get me wrong, the climate is great (and that’s the only thing Californians will tell you for a reason why they’re there), and although I miss the spring blossoms and deep red leaves in the fall, there’s nothing wrong with redwood trees everywhere.
But as a naive lad coming into Tech Mecca, I was fucking expecting Blade Runner’s dystopian Los Angeles. I mean, where are all the tech integrations with the infrastructure? Maglev train? Smart sentient cities? Robots delivering mails? Ok, there are cars strapped with lidars everywhere to see, but they have nothing to do with the general public, do they? A bit dystopian is Silicon Valley, sure, but not at all high tech. It feels just like New Mexico with Safeways and many more strip malls."
https://pancy.medium.com/dont-go-to-the-bay-area-53dfe1a9d59c
13. "Knowledge work can be done from anywhere but rarely in a vacuum. We all need regular inspiration, feedback, and social interaction. One part is individual work, as deep as possible, and the other is the rub and constructive input from select parts of the rest of the world.
So my response to Malcolm Gladwell perspective is:
We need spaces (not necessarily offices) for serendipitous and intentional meetings with people within and outside our fields of interest and competence but we also need to carve out time and attention to channel our creative energy into deep work (not necessarily from home) that can make a real impact."
https://fewerbetterthings.substack.com/p/hybrid-work-outside-home-and-office
14. B2b Software sales basics.
https://tomtunguz.com/how-to-structure-land-and-expand-ae/
15. Ignoring the man's (Barbaric Disciple aka Resavager) angry and racist vitriol (thus not posting the link but the actual good and cogent passage). His message otherwise is quite right.
"His argument was the pathfinders movement west was driven by a desire to escape entrenched bureaucracy in the east towards greater opportunity and freedom in the west. This he called democracy, but I don’t agree with this. We feel the stifling nature of the East throughout America today, now that the frontier has been closed. These men just sought freedom and power. They were after what JFK called the “vigorous and adventurous life.” Our people survived in early colonial America by learning how to survive and thrive in nature again. They learned self-reliance and a freedom far greater than what we pass as freedom today.
You had to find a way to live off the land because there was no way to completely prepare yourself for the journey west. Our ancestors were in every way to superior men and women to the stock we have today. If we don’t find a way to collectively bring back this frontier power, nature will favor some better people in the future. It’s the pathfinder, not the statesman, that’s the true symbol of the American. What the leftist tries desperately to escape from is the reality of nature. They’re trying to escape it at all costs. To acknowledge nature is to acknowledge their own shortcomings and unnatural nature.
What I seek is a pathfinder and cowboy nationalism. It is these pioneers our men should look to emulate. American ingenuity and excellence came from the example set by these men. Men who were thrown back into nature and forced once again, to master their conditions. We are in the same position they once were. Our people have been dispossessed and removed from power. It must be reconquered by new pathfinders and cowboys. The parasites must be removed from power and only men of power can do this."
16. Yikes....crime does not pay it seems.
"Arabi, Shokouhi, and Taneja now face up to 20 years in prison and forfeiture of all property acquired from their corporate fraud scheme. Arabi’s sister, Sheida Alan, has also been charged with conspiracy to commit fraud. She was arrested in Canada and the Justice Department plans to extradite her to the US to face trial."
https://www.pcmag.com/news/qualcomm-duped-into-buying-startup-secretly-founded-by-company-exec
17. Writer is an ultra right wing shill & a--hole but I share his concerns on woke Blackrock & the elitist WEF Davos crowd.
"For the uninitiated: Blackrock is the chief promulgator of the environmental, social, and corporate governance (ESG) movement in the financial world. If the World Economic Forum is the think tank and narrative shop of the global elite, Blackrock is the asset manager of this class. Notably, the two parties share the same goal in implementing the enviro authoritarianism scam popularized by WEF founder Klaus Schwab, which they refer to as “stakeholder capitalism.” Essentially, Blackrock pretends to care about the environment, but the purpose of the ESG charade is to grow an anti-competitive economic mafia, and make it very difficult for financial institutions to move their money around in the economy without pledging an oath of fealty to Blackrock’s pseudo advocacy. If you don’t play Blackrock’s game, well, you will own nothing and you will be happy, as the saying goes.
Not being ESG compliant on Wall St is a death sentence for firms, so companies make sure to play along with Blackrock’s game and pretend that they too truly care about the environmental statist agenda. It’s one giant charade to make sure the same handful of firms stay atop the hierarchy."
https://dossier.substack.com/p/the-blackrock-biden-admin-behemoth
18. Very important discussion on the future of America, the cultural discourse right now. End of incompetent elites in America and why the CCP is the enemy of the west.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-xfqtkO6HQU
19. A great discussion by one of the best writers and thinkers of global macroeconomic trends. Lynn Alden.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CPCnbK96oNw
20. The new emerging centers for expats. Only surprise is Rio de Janeiro. It's a very cool and beautiful city but it's dangerous (crime wise).
https://www.linkedin.com/news/story/expats-flocking-to-host-of-new-cities-4896937
21. "The first thing Wuhan’s coronavirus made clear was decades of globalist policy had destroyed America’s ability to provide its own furniture, let alone sustain a technologically-advanced economy without the rare metal mining, processing, and manufacturing that took place almost entirely in autocratic prison states. Cheap global trade was no mere perk of contemporary life, it was our oxygen.
Now, a couple years into the realization, all eyes are on Taiwan. This is not only because Taiwan is a free country at risk of being swallowed by the Chinese mainland, which I’m sure everyone will feel very bad about for the couple weeks following Xi’s invasion, but because Taiwan produces nearly all the world’s advanced microchips, the first and most important building blocks of our entire technological reality.
Fortunately, politicians across the ideological spectrum have finally realized U.S. resource insecurity is a problem, and no one is mocking “bring the jobs home” hicks today. Unfortunately, the single tool in our tool chest continues to be ‘spending absolute shit tons of money and hoping things happen.’
https://www.piratewires.com/p/american-hustle-microchip-edition
22. Net net: we are at war on so many different vectors that its hard for most people (myself included) to really understand.
"So, if you don’t have the imaginal tools to understand MAGA, Q-Anon and the various conspiracy theories that underpin the Pro-Trump view of the world, start with Izabella Kaminska’s (former FT Alphaville Editor), video, which offers a deep dive into what today’s gamified and “game jacked” realpolitik conspiracy theory landscape.
She points out that the current situation sounds similar to Poland's inter-war period. Józef Klemens Piłsudski was the leader of Poland’s resistance and opposition. He cut deals with everybody. It didn’t matter who won as far as he was concerned. He got all sides to agree to let Poland come back to life as a nation-state, whoever won. These days incredibly bright, efficient and well-armed former US military members seem to be leaning toward Pilsudski’s position, as Kaminska explains. Geopolitics is dark and messy stuff. Welcome to the realpolitik of our times."
https://drpippa.substack.com/p/clash-of-civilizations
23. "The fact is that in some ways we still live in the world that was conceived in the Middle Ages. According to Eco, we have inherited most of our problems from this era. This is when the Western legacy emerged in the form of merchant cities, a capitalistic economy along with banks, checks, and double-entry bookkeeping.
“In the Middle Ages, we witness the rise of modern armies, of the modern concept of the national state, as well as the idea of the supernatural federation (under the banner of a German Emperor elected by a Diet that functioned like an electoral convention); the struggle between the poor and the rich, the concept of heresy or ideological deviation, even our contemporary notion of love as a devastating happy happiness.”
Money is a medium and also information. Bitcoin and Ethereum are new credibly neutral mediums that could settle trade globally without local authorities doing anything about it except for banning their subjects from using them.
Bitcoin and Ethereum are the New Empires of The Cloud - universalist forces that fundamentally change the pattern of human coordination. The future will tell us if these universalist forces will drain funds Romewards just like the pope did in the Middle Ages (crypto becoming the new Rome).
To make sense of the world today, observe the technology-enabled power struggle of universalism and particularism unfolding. Native digital money is unbundling the concept of a ruler’s sovereignty over many things. Today, the two authorities overlap, but ultimately, structural change to patterns of human coordination cannot be resisted."
https://wrongalot.substack.com/p/empire-of-the-clouds
24. An excellent discussion on macroeconomic climate and why China is shooting itself in its foot (just like the USA is doing but in a different way).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vVT8i1jkBY4
25. Slava Ukraini.
"After half-a-day of driving, we finally arrived at the Polish border. It was clear that more people were entering Ukraine than leaving it—a good sign that some are able to return home despite the country still fighting a vicious war. We even had time to help some Red Cross workers set up a tent to receive refugees fleeing the fighting in the east of the country.
What struck us, as we waited for our driver to pick us up at the border, was the culture of volunteerism that permeated this war. Even though they know there was a long road ahead, morale seemed high, at least for the moment. War upends daily life. Drivers, snipers, logisticians – everyone pitched in to do their part for the war.
The lesson of Ukraine is clear: Wars are no longer fought solely between regular armies."
https://www.sofmag.com/in-ukraine-two-us-army-veterans-see-the-new-face-of-war
26. I hate driving personally. Thank goodness for Uber/Lyft.
"Americans have a 1 in 63 chance of getting into a car accident, one crash happens every six minutes. There’s nothing that most of us can do about this reality except drive defensively and keep our loved ones in the car as infrequently as possible. But I long for the day when either I can live like a real Nigerian prince and have someone do my driving-bound tasks for me, or until fully autonomous vehicles become a real, common thing. Whichever comes first."
https://sotonye.substack.com/p/the-case-for-literally-never-driving
27. "In summary, Ukraine looks like ultimately emerging victorious from this conflict, and strong and better able to defend itself as a result. NATO and Western Liberal Market Democracy likely will be energised, with new focus.
But the outlook for Russia is nothing but grim. It will remain an international pariah, subject to sanctions and with its economy in decline, and on the losing end of an arms face with the West, which will diminish its military and international prowess. Putin has accelerated Russia’s decline as a result of this war. Let’s see how long Russians come to this realisation and opt for regime change at home."
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/big-picture-take-outs-from-putins
28. This is the fundraising process blog post I wanted to write. (but never got around to, but Chris did). Recommend for all startup founders who want to go down the VC route.
https://chrisneumann.com/blog/high-velocity-fundraising
29. This is a fun learning experience from a professional crypto trader. From dishwasher to 9 figure whale.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=elTUJO7Blkc
30. Neat new VC fund focussed around helping founders with storytelling.
31. Scratching my head over this one. A16Z is crazy or crazy like the fox. I guess we will find out soon enough.
When I asked rival investors whether they kicked the tires on Flow, I received answers like “hahaha” and “No — it’s good to know there’s still a place for utter insanity though.”
"As a sort of scholar of Andreessen Horowitz thinking, I find the troll theory of the case fairly compelling. This whole saga has been great strategic positioning for the firm. What Andreessen Horowitz has always understood better than anyone else is that the main audience for their marketing is founders. So even if the masses find investing in Neumann distasteful, this sends a clear message to prospective founders that a16z wants to back the bold. And founders are the ones who can generate the billions in returns for Andreessen Horowitz that the firm needs to be successful.
This is the contrarianism that is so often talked about.
(Of course, it is also a sort of amoral nihilism.)
One Silicon Valley insider observed, “It sends an f-you message to the press — your reporting didn’t really matter and a message to founders that they’ll always be supported.”
https://www.newcomer.co/p/can-a-zebra-change-its-stripes
32. I appreciate the sarcasm here.
"People sometimes say that Silicon Valley is too obsessed with ‘saving the world,’ but as I write this from my soulless and friendless apartment, I for one am grateful for firms like a16z. It takes a great deal of courage and bravery to write your biggest check ever to a disgraced founder whom many believe to be a charlatan because you care that deeply about uplifting the lonely masses and solving America’s housing crisis.
Some might say this is a deluded fantasy and that $350 million could be better spent on affordable housing, housing justice groups, or a founder who did not previously blow up a multibillion-dollar company. These people lack vision. Our nation has a housing crisis and it requires an Adam Neumann-sized solution. As Andreessen says, “Only projects with such lofty goals have a chance at changing the world.”
https://oversharing.substack.com/p/marc-andreessen-goes-with-the-flow
33. The case for Crypto & Web 3, it's a very good discussion.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RXHITeaGB8Q
34. Shaq is a good dude. A very generous man & model.
35. We need to rebuild the US industrial base asap!
36. "Europe has been so focused on climate change and reducing emissions that now with the war in Ukraine and gas from Russia has been reduced, Europe is facing an energy crisis.
If only more nuclear reactors had been built instead of unreliable wind and solar power...But no, the climate change fanatics did not like the sound of that!
So now we are facing an energy crisis instead."
https://petersweden.substack.com/p/germany-energy-rationing
37. This is grim reading. China & CCP are a clear and present threat to US and liberal West.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Fritz844/status/1560088576875851776
38. The Semiconductor giant no one knows about. ASML.
https://twitter.com/TrungTPhan/status/1560290568499892224
39. Good! Slava Ukraini!
"Speaking from the presidential offices in Kyiv, Podolyak said: “Our strategy is to destroy the logistics, the supply lines and the ammunition depots and other objects of military infrastructure. It’s creating a chaos within their own forces.”
40. "Again, for me personally? I don’t buy it. I wouldn’t have made this bet. But I try to avoid raining on anyones hustle (though sometimes it’s hustle and sometimes it’s A hustle.) I know the housing market is incredibly riddled with problems and I would love to see it improved.
The idealistic dreamer in me remembers the spiritual experiences I’ve had walking through the ethereal halls of the Disney kingdoms. I would love to see a revolutionary new way of living and connecting with our community. So I wish them the best, and pray they do as little harm to the little guys and gals.
One parting thought from me. I think overall we could do a better job of building companies that meet reality between the atoms and the bits. There are plenty of problems in the physical world that could benefit from digital solutions.
Software is eating the world. But every once in a while some of the people cooking it feel like a millennial hipster who googled "ancient chinese recipe" and are doing their best with what they have in their Brooklyn apartment. And somehow Doritos made it into the meal.
Instead? We could do a better job of understanding the physical world we want to impact before diving in with a “revolutionary” solution. When I look at the “tech-enabled” businesses tackling the real world there are definitely some phenomenal and exciting solutions.
But there are a lot of “slap some software on it” solutions. When they represent a fundamental misunderstanding of the “state of the state” you’ll often not only make bad solutions but hurt a lot of people in the process."
https://investing1012dot0.substack.com/p/the-rise-of-the-cash-man
41. More on Zeihan's view of deglobalization. Always interesting.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wRT7P-VKM0k
42. One of the best analysis of macro economic environment and history. Lyn Alden is one of the best observers out there.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XaHuwUDd1C8
43. A dangerous game being played by Turkey.
"So, Turkey is both up in Svalbard and down in Cyprus. It is working with Russia in its efforts to secure greater control over assets on the ground in both places. Russia too sees an energy/resource supply chain that runs through the Arctic and one that runs through the Eastern Mediterranean.
But, this is not only about extraction. It is about power projection. Turkey still dreams of being a great regional power again, as it was during the Ottoman Empire period. Turkey knows that all the nations in the Eastern Mediterranean are jockeying for access to and control over the gas fields to the south - Egypt, Greece, Israel, Lebanon, Palestine, Syria, Italy, and Libya. It’s a long list. They’ll need help.
They clearly think Russia will help more than NATO will if it comes to a fight. So, best to align with Russia across the board, from the Artic to Africa. Notice that Turkey is also restoring diplomatic ties with Israel. This matters because Israeli firms control the production rights for much of the Cypriot gas fields.
Then there is China. Turkey is aligning with China too. NATO has repeatedly declared that China is a serious and growing threat. But, China sees Turkey as a partner that will help in the Middle East, the Mediterranean and the Arctic as well. If Turkey can be persuaded to back away from their support of the Uighurs, that would be advantageous to Beijing as well.
The landscape in Svalbard is realpolitik. It would behoove investors and observers to pay closer attention to these seemingly unrelated and unimportant islands like Svalbard and Cyprus because whatever we may mean by geopolitics, this is where it’s unfolding as fast as the weather changes."
https://drpippa.substack.com/p/cold-turkey
44. Wow, big move for YC. I'm so glad I'm not in the accelerator game anymore. Competition is crazy.
Garry is amazing and the right person for running YC & taking them to next level.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/alexkonrad/2022/08/29/y-combinator-names-garry-tan-as-next-president
45. This is a good overview of what’s happening in Ukraine. Net net: by whatever measure Russia is losing & in bad shape.
This is from a geopolitical analyst who was negative on Ukraine's chances in the long run until recently. So very pleased to hear.
Slava Ukraini!
The Right Way to Look at Personal Finance: Lifestyle Cash versus Building Equity
Silicon Valley folks has long derided “Lifestyle businesses” which i find dumb, ignorant and close minded. I have friends who either run agencies, IT outsourcing companies, Amazon FBA (Furnished by Amazon), Dropshipping or ecommerce businesses that clear $80-100k usd a month in net cash flow to themselves for very limited amounts of work a week. They are living the ideal of “Four Hour Work Week.” Who does not want this?
A big part of the decision comes down to priorities, your focus and the type of life and business you want to build. It’s all personal preference. Do you want to work the 110 hour work week to build the “Growth at all costs” multi-billion dollar business that Silicon Valley loves? Or do you want to do this at a more sustainable and cash-flow driven business?
Key considerations:
Cash flow versus Equity which is the Exit value at sale or going public: it’s based on the time of Short term versus Long term
Liquidity versus Illiquidity: coldly speaking, it comes down to when you extract value.
The way to wealth is owning and building equity: that’s absolutely true. And it is something I wish I learned much earlier in life. But there is a huge portion of the economy that does not meet this criteria. There are probably more bootstrap businesses than VC funded businesses, as many do not fit the super growth business model that VCs look for. Things like Agency businesses, CPG (Consumer Packaged Goods) businesses like energy drinks or food bars, software business targeting super niche communities or the like. These businesses do build equity value but in my opinion, it’s focus should be about extracting cash flow & dividends.
The Microacquire platform changes some of these dynamics for software businesses. And if you do real estate well, something I have admittedly have not, you can get both equity growth as the value of your property goes up as well as the cash flow from the rental income of tenants. Private Equity has traditionally been like this too, extracting value from cash flow & fees, and massive return and cash at exit too. We also see the rise of the micro-Private Equity firms like Codie Sanchez and Alex Hormozi hoovering up many cash flowing small businesses.
In the future, a key piece of personal finance is balancing this long term monetization versus short term. Balancing cash flow versus equity value. You need both to make it big.
We need to be thinking of short term cash flow needs whether that’s a 9-5 job, consulting on the side or even a cash flow generating bootstrap software or agency business as side hustle. But this also needs to be counterbalanced with parlaying this cash into equity stakes either from investing via angel deals in startups, LP-ing in VC funds, public stock stocks/401k/ROTH IRA or real estate investments. These are all assets that take time to grow and are super illiquid or untouchable until a certain age.
You are basically building a barbell in personal assets. One which is focused on good predictable cash flow that lets you live and support your family. Ie. less risky and liquid.
The other side of the barbell is on the high risk, high gain, long term value that could be life changing wealth down the road. And i should add super illiquid.
My big mistake was an undue focus on building the long term illiquid wealth but not managing my cost structure properly. Basically I did not keep my personal burn as LOW as possible. Something everyone needs to do without wrecking their health and life. I had lifestyle creep and mistook the difference between needs versus wants. I compounded this by not shoring up my short term cash flow and liquid assets.
All it takes is a “Black Swan” event like the GFC (Global Financial Crisis) or a Pandemic to wreck you and cause the cash flow issues that make it hard to survive, so you can realize the value of all the assets you built up. And I should add as we move into the de-globalizing and emerging multipolar world, these shocking surprises are only going to be happening in higher frequencies. Building a balanced portfolio of assets helps make you more “antifragile” and better able to weather the storm. So word to the wise.
The Real Point of Life: The Search for Beauty
Back in May, while in Istanbul for a business trip, I found myself tired & jetlagged in my hotel room. Not feeling particularly good & somewhat listless after a very busy day of work. As an introvert, I always need some alone time.
I started watching this Japanime movie called Bubble (check out the teaser here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WItvH4Hoyag) on Netflix. The story is about young orphans who compete in parkour team battles in the wastelands of a future Tokyo. It is based loosely on the “Little Mermaid” story. I love Tokyo and the art was beautiful. I mean, really lifelike and magical.
I felt so much better and happier after watching it. And it made me realize that the real spark of life is beauty. In fact, I would argue the real purpose of everything we should do beyond survival is the search for beautiful things.
These could be beautiful landscapes, beautiful cities, beautiful buildings and architecture, beautiful people, beautiful ideas. Beautiful food. Beautiful pictures. Beautiful cars. Beautiful animals. Beautiful stories. Or beautiful moments like the birth of your child or her smile of happiness. What is more amazing than that?
Beautiful is defined as “pleasing the senses or mind aesthetically” or “of a very high standard; excellent.”
The whole point of making money, of surviving is to get the chance to see and experience beautiful things. Yes, it’s a bit esoteric but this literally should be the whole point of living. It’s humanity’s eternal search for beauty in whatever form it takes. Beauty sparks joy. Joy in life is the point. Maybe the only point if you think about it.
As Ralph Waldo Emerson said: “Never lose an opportunity of seeing anything beautiful, for beauty is God's handwriting.”
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads Aug 28th, 2022
Come what may, all bad fortune is to be conquered by endurance― Virgil
This is an important discussion. Taiwan will be a key flashpoint & the reality is both Taiwan & US are behind the ball here.
Especially Taiwan, They are under an existential threat from China, yet completely complacent. If they don't prepare, they are toast.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7mYnoHTyuCw
2. James Bond is the man. Good to learn from the man (yes, I know he is not a real person but a character).
https://www.thegentlemansjournal.com/being-as-cool-as-james-bond
3. This is worth watching. Breakdown of present global economic order.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kPZ2L6SGK1c
4. The De-globalization of the world but there will be lots of opportunity. At least half of the world will still thrive until the rest of the world comes back.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tjYDcuOlK_M
5. I'm not Filipino but I'm looking forward to this movie.
https://www.gq.com/story/jo-koy-easter-sunday-interview
6. "Junger believed you needed more than action, you needed conviction. The will to kill and step over the corpse of your enemy, to head further into the battle. The men of his time didn’t lack men of action. Our time does. A great cowardice seizes good people from doing what’s right. This is where nature shines its ugly head. Just because you are on the side of “moral rightness” doesn’t mean you will prevail.
The west had its own hubris, made its own mistakes, and we must understand how those mistakes were made. Establish traditions to prevent those mistakes from happening again. We must be in the business of forming a new people. New barbarians who survive and thrive behind enemy lines. New barbarians who win the time comes will take power, who will have the Mandate of Heaven.
To do this, you must embrace and embody the virtues of nature. You must be strong, have DARING. Be driven by some powerful warrior religion. You must have Junger’s Will to kill and step over the bodies of your enemies deeper into the battle. Above all, be a man of action and conviction. This type of man will be foreign and deadly to the men of our time. They will be barbarians in every sense of the word."
https://resavager.substack.com/p/action-and-conviction-are-everything
7. Such a massive, insight dense interview. Big brain Balaji's view of the future (and present). The man is right more than wrong.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0LOr2qBcpns&t=202s
8. This is a worthwhile conversation for macro investors. Dollar Milkshake theory.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NnsqBbymayQ&t=0s
9. "Lots of down, flat and bridge rounds through the end of the year. So many startups raised because they could, at very high valuations based on competition or rev multiples. Right now cash is king and runways/burn are very important (in my professional VC voice).
Huge influx of experienced talent. As the FANG and other major public tech companies' stock falls, it will be very difficult to retain and hire new talent. A huge problem for late-stage, highly valued private tech startups as well — a major boon for early-stage that still has the BIG upside.
Just be cognizant that most of the funding news you’re reading now is generally delayed and not a good indicator of the current funding environment."
https://medium.com/@trace-cohen/the-current-state-of-2022-pre-seed-investing-862dc028d305
10. "He and Aronow were the creators of the Bored Ape Yacht Club, the internet’s hottest NFT project. Yuga Labs — the company through which they launched the Bored Ape Yacht Club in April 2021 — is currently valued at $4 billion.
The Bored Apes are a collection of 10,000 unique digital head-and-shoulders drawings of simians, each with a unique combination of traits, ranging from the common (“bored” mouth) to the ultra-rare (“solid gold” fur). Last October, a rare Ape sold at Sotheby’s for an eye-watering $3.4 million. That same month, Guy Oseary, a veteran talent manager who represents Madonna and U2, came on as a BAYC business partner.
Today, the Apes are everywhere in popular culture, from T-shirts sold at Old Navy to a VMA-nominated music video by Snoop Dogg and Eminem. Celebrities like Steph Curry, Justin Bieber, Gwyneth Paltrow, Post Malone, and Seth Green own them. Other high-profile holders include Jimmy Fallon and Paris Hilton, who in January engaged in an infamously cringe exchange about their Apes on The Tonight Show. (Solano and Aronow, who say they weren’t aware of the Fallon segment in advance, found it “very surreal.”)"
https://www.inputmag.com/features/bored-ape-yacht-club-greg-solano-wylie-aronow-profile
11. "The technology in Dune is made to enhance the man, not replace him.
This makes the men in Dune full of powerful vital force. There aren’t computers. Guns have been rendered obsolete by personal shields, forcing men to go back to using swords and knives again. You can’t survive in this world as a fatty. If you want glory, it must be won by the strength of your body and will.
That purpose being to make men who can survive and thrive in the time they’re in. It should be the means in which vital force is put back into the man.
Modernity has been a disaster for men. Violence is looked down upon. The skills and traditions men used to get to the top of the food chain have been lost. Mankind is a couple serious disasters from being knock back a couple cycles. Technology and progress have been put ahead of the excellence of man. They have become the new gods, the new faith, and it’s a faith that is misplaced. Technology is necessary, but don’t let it destroy what makes you great.
Technology is the realm of the regime. It’s used against us on a scale most don’t yet realize."
https://resavager.substack.com/p/the-vital-force-of-the-warrior-religion
12. This is pretty much one of the most insightful interviews and discussions I've heard with Balaji. It's a long one but it’s like all his interviews: very dense with insights. The man from the future.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NlY8HICFiRs
13. "His axe firm in hand. He will fight the leviathan. He will not back down from the heroic struggle before our kind. His iron will won’t be dissuaded by the arguments of weak men who want only to crush his will to fight. Demoralization doesn’t work on him because he’s stayed true to the ancient rites.
The only way is the way Nature has deemed right and just. These pencil necked bookworms will talk about tolerance and progress, but the disciple of violence knows the truth. Force rules the world and only force can turn the wheel of mankind. The axe wielder is a breaker of wills and chains, for the free man is a warrior.
He exists on the frontier. In the threshold of civilization and barbarism. It is the frontier that gives him power. It is the frontier that powers his will to master, conquer, and destroy. Will you follow him?"
https://resavager.substack.com/p/the-axe-wielder-the-disciple-of-violence
14. One of the few great adventurer investors out there.
"From my value stock research around the globe, I found sub-Saharan Africa was the ONLY place you could then buy a large number of wonderful businesses at fair, or even cheap prices. The valuations nearly everywhere else in the world were distorted by ultra-low interest rates since the late 2000s. The air is coming out of those valuations a little bit now, but the relative values on the stocks we own at African Lions Fund are still far more attractive.
Even though the Fund is up over 40% since inception, earnings and dividend growth have largely kept pace with that for many stocks we own, and valuation multiples have not yet expanded across the board. It remains a fertile hunting ground."
https://ideabrunch.substack.com/p/idea-brunch-with-tim-staermose-of
15. "But here’s the thing: the less you’re personally invested in this system, the easier you’ll find it to endure any financial storm. Regardless of whether it originates from China or elsewhere.
In times of a downturn or crisis, cash, bonds, and stocks will usually be the first assets to feel the pinch. And while real estate remains generally more stable, even it isn’t immune to bubbles and busts. The 2008 housing crisis, and the weird state of the global property market right now are proof of this.
So for me, when times are turbulent, I always acquire more of the one stable asset that’s stood the test of time. The thing our civilisation always falls back on.
Gold and silver almost always endure financial flux better than other asset classes. At times when inflation has been above 3% (like right now), gold has returned an average of 15% per annum to those who hold it.
Of course, like with any asset class, it’s important not to place all your
bets on precious metals. But as a safeguard against some of the economic battles the world is currently taking part in, now might be the time for you to get your hands on some. Or, some more."
https://abundantia.substack.com/p/money-pox-has-returned
16. "Specialization can offer the perfect niche fit but also lead to a loss of individualism, limited experiences, a narrow mindset, and a misdirected focus on what really matters: doing the things you really love with simplicity and meaning towards personal growth, fulfillment, and extraordinary adventures. Just like kids do."
https://fewerbetterthings.substack.com/p/stuff-for-all-eventualities
17. Still very bullish on Mexico for the long run.
"Mexico has another huge advantage that its South American counterparts lack: close proximity to a major economic center. More than 75% of Mexico’s exports go to the U.S., its behemoth neighbor to the north. Just as Poland, Romania, and Turkey benefit from their proximity to Europe, Mexico is part of a continent-sized economic agglomeration. The economic integration of Mexico with the U.S. is helped by the existence of a free trade agreement, the USMCA (formerly NAFTA).
In other words, Mexico is a technically sophisticated and highly diversified manufacturing nation that makes and exports large volumes of complex, high-value-added goods. That is almost always the description of a rich, industrialized country, or at least a fast-growing near-rich country like Malaysia or Poland. And yet Mexico is a middle-income country that’s growing more like a natural resource exporter."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/mexico-a-development-puzzle
18. The story of constant reinvention, we can learn from this.
"What Gelman does—be it the Six Bells or The Wing or a political campaign or a TV show—has never mattered as much in drawing people’s interest as the fact of Gelman doing it. She is an astute reader of rooms, a generationally gifted flack, a connector of people, willful enough in her control that before I had made a single call for this piece, I got a call from a mutual friend telling me that Gelman heard that I was writing a story about her. She is a storytelling capitalist and a builder of worlds who understands what her customers want before they know they want it—Don Draper if he’d put himself in the ads.
She is pretty and rich, unfailingly pulled together, and friends with everyone you hate-watch on the internet. She is not a household name, but if the name Audrey Gelman does ring a bell, you have an opinion about her. She is highly conductive, radiating heat in the current era of guilty pleasure. “I can’t explain it,” she tells me when I ask her why she thinks people have such a strong reaction to her. “I guess I am just not for everyone.”
https://www.vanityfair.com/style/2022/07/audrey-gelman-six-bells-interview
19. This is what makes investing in frontier markets so exciting....and difficult.
"More generally, the inefficiencies of frontier markets, the slow dissemination of information, the frequency of “price insensitive” sellers, and a whole host of other ingredients, make for a heady cocktail of potentially huge profits."
20. Great discussion with Tim Staermose: investing in frontier markets.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x__5bHsR9jA
21. "Yes, the United States supports Taiwan because of democracy, freedom and human rights; the biggest reason why that support may one day entail aircraft carriers is because of chips and TSMC.
Time will tell if the CHIPS Act achieves its intended goals; the final version did, as I hoped, explicitly limit investment by recipients in China, which is already leading chip makers to rethink their investments. That this is warping the chip market is, in fact, the point: the structure of technology drives inexorably towards the most economically efficient outcomes, but the ultimate end state will increasingly be a matter of politics."
https://stratechery.com/2022/political-chips
22. Educational story on one of the worlds best but relatively unknown investors: Martin Ebner.
"When asked for his #1 factor for success, Ebner would point to his ability to spot structural changes and ride them for years.
What does he mean by that?
"Everyone is focussed on short-term cyclical trends. Everyone is an 'expert' in doing that. However, the much more demanding task is to recognise large-scale structural changes before they happen. If you focus on that, you'll have less competition."
23. "Roditi is a man to my heart's content when it comes to taking a global view and travelling in order to research opportunities.
"He studies the world, searching for investment opportunities. … He travels endlessly to places like Japan, Russia, and India, which are not exactly luxury locations. …. On one day in June 2003, when he came by our offices, he was long Japanese banks, Russian equities, Treasury bonds, the euro, and Korean equities. …
He is a very curious, inquisitive man. He operates almost like a secret agent. … He isn't just content with the usual fare of company meetings and government officials in Moscow and St. Petersburg. Instead, because Russia is so much about oil, last year he went on a gruelling trip for a week to Siberia, visiting the Russian oil companies. With the Japanese banks he employs a number of unconventional sources and I know he has long-time contacts with the senior management of two of them. He goes to Tokyo probably four or five times a year."" (Hedgehogging)
During his active years, Roditi reportedly visited over 100 companies each year."
24. I'm a proponent of remote work but there are challenges with it. There are some advantages of being in the office for sure.
“It’s very hard to feel necessary when you’re physically disconnected,” the Canadian writer said.
“As we face the battle that all organizations are facing now in getting people back into the office, it’s really hard to explain this core psychological truth, which is we want you to have a feeling of belonging and to feel necessary.”
https://nypost.com/2022/08/05/malcolm-gladwell-slams-working-from-home/amp/
25. "A GP fundamentally needs to do eight things:
-Source companies to invest in.
-Pick companies which outperform.
-Win access to those companies.
-Value a company well and enter at an appropriate valuation
-Construct a portfolio of these companies sized to maximise LP reward and minimise LP risk.
-King-make their portfolio companies.
-Raise capital for subsequent funds.
-Sell positions to Return capital to LPs*
It is a rare VC who can do all eight exceptionally - h/t Sequoia. Most funds can do two or three fairly well and the rest only averagely. If a fund is among the best in the world at even two of these, that fund will likely yield top-decile performance."
https://jordsnel.substack.com/p/unbundling-one
26. I think we are all for diversity and inclusion but the wokes have taken this too far. This will probably disappear in recession as we all go to survival mode anyways. Woke is a luxury belief.
"At this point, most people have internalized a sense the tech industry is run by crazy people. In fact, the industry is run by cowards terrified of a very small fraction of their employees — a legitimately crazy subset of political activists with many friends in the activist (establishment) press. For the last couple years, we’ve spent a great deal of time criticizing tech leadership for ceding authority to the deranged excesses of cultural authoritarians.
But there’s a larger story we haven’t yet explored: what about the greater majority of tech workers, terrified of being targeted by their most unhinged colleagues, who just want to do their jobs?"
https://www.piratewires.com/p/hostile-environment-techs-dei-disaster
27. "Quick Step by Step: Assuming that you expect food prices to go up, you want to reduce the amount of pain by either buying up front or *investing* in the area with the most pricing power.
1) Farms: this is not investable for the majority. Unless you’re Bill Gates or an actual farmer this is going to be quite difficult so your first option is to purchase non-perishables up-front. Something we have recommended for quite a long time. And. Continue to recommend since it’s a sunk cost.
2) Distribution: gets dicey here. There is no guarantee the distribution company can immediately pass along all costs - food price increase + gas increase.
3) Food Processing: slightly better than a distributor. Processing food can pass along the costs as there are *less* input costs with swinging variables. Exception would be European plants that are seeing triple digit electrical price increases
4) Packaging/Logistics: a bit of a mix between 2 and 3. Depends on the company and what their input costs are (likely “alpha here”) and
5) Wholesale/Restaurants/Retail Here it gets pretty clear. Since you’re selling to the end-consumer you can pass along the pricing. With a catch. The catch is that people will be forced to look for substitute goods and save money by getting closer to the source - wholesalers vs. small grocery stores.
In short, the easy way to hedge your personal expense is to buy bulk up front and freeze or by investing in farms/large wholesalers. If you want to beat the food industry performance wise you have to look at 2, 3 and 4 for companies that are misunderstood."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/downstream-effects-of-rising-food
28. "What we want to focus on today is the utterly evil plan to expand the IRS's power by hiring 87,000 new agents to zerg rush the American people and shake them down for every penny they can find. Not only does the bill include hiring a new fleet of demon agents, but it plans to increase the number of tax audits throughout the country by 1.2 MILLION. A detestable number of audits that will increase costs on small businesses and middle class Americans and waste hundreds of millions of hours of time that could be spent... being productive throughout the economy.
These poeple will be armed with weapons and a mandate from the thieves within the Federal Government to make the lives of ordinary Americans - who are simply trying to mind their business and enjoy their limited time on this planet - a living hell.
What you're witnessing, freaks, is one of the tell-tale signs of a dying empire. When bread, circuses and entitlement programs begin to falter under the weight of their own stupidity it's time to send out the tax collectors to squeeze the populace dry of every penny possible and any joy that may be left lingering in their lives. It's like Joe Manchin and demonic Chuck Schumer opened up a history book and decided to plagarize the 4th and 5th century Roman playbook."
https://tftc.io/martys-bent/issue-1247-an-irs-zerg-rush-could-be-on-the-way
29. "When you’re out in the desert, what matters become clear. Cell service is shit or non-existent. There’s nothing other than SURVIVAL and the thrill of ADVENTURE on your mind.
Out there in the desert is LIFE. You don’t realize how much you have to supplement or medicate just to get through the modern world.
The desert unleashes POWER you didn’t know you had in you.
The desert sun gives you power. It raises testosterone. Your will for adventure overrides your desire to ESCAPE the modern world through wasteful and addicting distractions. All the shit you think you needed to get through the day — caffeine, supplements, whatever — you realize you don’t really need them. Their crutches to get you through your shit life. You also get to feel the danger our ancestors on the frontier faced out in the arid desert. The desert can kill you if you’re not prepared."
https://resavager.substack.com/p/reflections-from-the-desert
30. Slava Ukraini.
"The time when incremental support was sufficient has passed. Ukraine’s needs are known. The United States needs to lead an allied surge to provide a massive U.S. and allied heavy weaponry support package to Kyiv while the Ukrainian military is able to further degrade the Russian forces. The $1 billion defense aid package reportedly being prepared is a welcome step, as would be the decision to give Ukraine American fighter jets, but these tranches of support must come more quickly and more often.
The sooner we can help Ukraine defeat the Russian military, the sooner the killing of innocent Ukrainians will come to an end. The sooner that happens, the safer other parts of Europe at risk of Russian aggression will be. And then, perhaps, Putin’s grip on power might be challenged, which would be a welcome relief for many Russians who have suffered under his increasingly fascist rule.
It is up to Ukrainians to decide when or if to negotiate with Russia, but it is in our interest to strengthen their hand as much as possible right now. We should prepare for the possibility of escalation by the Russian side, not be paralyzed by fear of it. Thanks to the heroism of the Ukrainians, we have an opportunity to deal the Putin regime a serious, maybe even fatal, blow. It will not last long."
https://www.thebulwark.com/with-enough-help-ukraine-can-win
31. "Conclusion on IRS: Unless you’re entirely W-2, better be prepared for more oversight and more documentation for all of your audits. No one is going to waste time auditing someone with a $100,000 W-2 and $100,000 brokerage account. That has never been the case.
The goal is to go after two sections: 1) the fake transactions that are really payments - Venmo, PayPal, CashApp etc and 2) small business owners. If you are a mega corporation congrats! All of your potential competitors now have new expense line items to deal with as they will be forced to pay for their audits."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/87000-irs-agents-inflation-reduction
32. Yes, it is time for the West (US, CA & Western Europe) to start taking the threat of China seriously.
"Arguably, if Russia were the only challenge, such talk might not be necessary. The Ukraine War is far from won, but one can imagine how we might muddle through without disrupting Americans’ everyday lives. But the reality that China won’t easily be contained in Asia—and that’s what Pelosi’s trip underscored for me—means that this kind of pose is irresponsible. Time to start planning for a world that takes an invasion of Taiwan as a given.
Since the end of the Cold War, we have had it easy. We have been coasting on glib assumptions. It’s time to get serious."
https://wisdomofcrowds.live/we-need-to-get-serious-about-tawain
33. Important and fascinating discussion on media and culture in America.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gbOwzImwAYc
34. "doesn’t mean newsletters have gone away. At all. Just some of the hype surrounding them. And in its place, there’s a more realistic attitude about the format and the business you can build around it: Newsletters, it turns out, are just like blogs and podcasts — they’re super simple for anyone to create. But turning them into something beyond a hobby — let alone turning them into a full-time job — requires talent and sustained effort.
“I don’t think it’s an easy path to fame and riches,” says Judd Legum, who has been writing his Popular Information newsletter since 2018. “But that was a thing that I never believed.”
35. "The Anatomy of a Digital Vending Machine
I’ve effectively replicated this business model using the Internet. I will do a lot of up-front work to identify a market need, built out a digital product or service, create an automated sales funnel to acquire new customers and setup an automated checkout and delivery system. After the product or service launches, the business will effectively run itself since all of the customer touch points happen using software and automated processes."
https://www.mattpaulson.com/2014/10/i-build-digital-vending-machines-for-a-living
36. Really enjoyed this interview. This one was a specifically good interview with Balaji Srinavasan. Well worth the almost 2 hour discussion.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NEoxETtJ67Q
37. "Each “war on…” is an Industrial Complex that begins in the same romantic wishful tones a young couple contemplates their future family. The conception is finely crafted, precision engineered, made in the workshops of think tanks, PR agents, lobbyists and bureaucrats-in-waiting."
https://www.adamtownsend.me/how-to-win-the-war-on
38. "Fashion may seem ridiculous, ethereal, and unreliable to many in the markets. After all, most of the people on trading floors or in asset management are hard-nosed quantitative rationalists who don’t care much about fashion. But, fashion is art and artists detect trends before everybody else."
https://drpippa.substack.com/p/fashion-signals
39. Very important discussion. Fossils fuels have a place as transition to cleaner fuels. Nuclear is key as well.
We are much further away from Wind & Solar being reliable energy sources than people think and the environmental & academy demagogues claim.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=of9GGzeBth0
40. “The UAE is a big hole in the bucket,” Karen Greenaway, a former FBI agent, explained. “The movement of money — and we can’t see it — allows Russia to continue to run its economy and its war economy.”
"The Emirates is a global financial center that is built on freewheeling regulations. “Dubai basically started out as a pirate cove,” Sarah Chayes, author of the book Thieves of State: Why Corruption Threatens Global Security, said. Several dozen financial free zones and free trade zones provide havens for foreign money to avoid taxes, and the country’s loose regulations make it a particularly fruitful place for expats and foreign companies. There is no income tax; value-added tax was only introduced in 2018; and its first corporate tax regime is set for 2023.
Dubai has become home to illicit finance and other valuables like gold, art, and, more recently, crypto. Chayes recalled seeing what appeared to be heavy suitcases full of cash arriving in the UAE’s airport from Afghanistan when she was working as an adviser to the Pentagon, and later learned that millions in cash was coming into the UAE from Afghanistan per year.
It’s a center for American and international companies, often their base and port of call for Middle East business. There’s also the golden visa program, where luxury property buyers can get extended Emirati residence permits (which are short of impossible for international laborers to receive)."
41. "Every manager in the market today was emerging at one point, and behemoths like a16z just formed thirteen years ago.
Getting into a fund with a firm early in life is often critical to reserve a seat at the table in later funds. Firms such as Forerunner Ventures, Craft Ventures, IA Ventures, Ribbit Capital, Initialized Capital, and Felicis Ventures are some of the most sought-after funds in the world today and are incredibly access constrained given the breakout performance they've experienced.
While it's clear that emerging managers provide an enormous opportunity for outsized returns, a higher probability of co-invest, and the chance to get on the ground floor, many LPs struggle with this part of the market, given the hundreds of new managers that have formed each year over the last half-decade. Emerging Managers have a higher degree of performance volatility, so discovering and picking the right firms is paramount in achieving the outsized performance that is possible.
Picking is also tricky as many emerging managers have limited or no identifiable track records."
https://ventureunlocked.substack.com/p/why-emerging-managers-are-a-critical
42. "I guess remembering back to Erdogan over the past 20 years, it’s all about the now, and he always assumes that something will break to his advantage in the future. Do everything to stay in power now, and let’s worry about next year, next year. That’s terrible for business, longer term growth, etc, but it has kept him in power for 20 years.
Maybe all this will catch up with him in 2023. I seem to think the catch up will be either he loses the election, or the mother of all systemic crises will happen in Turkey post election, assuming an Erdogan win.
Bottom line, current policy settings are just not sustainable - the question for us all has been the time frame of sustainability, is it 1 month or 1 year? But it is certainly not 2-3 years, that’s for sure."
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/expectation-around-turkey
43. "For Ukraine to win this war, its not all going to be about guns, but about keeping the economy, its banks and financial system working. So far the Ukrainians have done a remarkable job in incredibly difficult circumstances, but the West is at risks of failing them unless it fast tracks disbursements to help fund the Ukrainian state. And now."
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/the-west-is-short-changing-ukraine
44. "Cheryl says she’s always looking for headliner-potential in any artist she signs. Strategies may differ artist to artist, but the goal is always the same: build longevity.
That comes from the small venue performances. It also comes from giving artists resources to amplify their live performances — adding performance coaches or production people to the team. Cheryl wants her artists to eventually sell their own shows, not just open for others or rely on festivals.
“If you’ve reached a point when you can only play festivals, you’ve hit a ceiling.”
https://trapital.co/2022/08/12/post-malones-agent-breaks-down-strategy-behind-his-success
Travel as a Tool: Why You Need to be Global
I’ve long been a global business person. And even though I think the globalized world that we know and love is ending (read Peter Zeihan’s work), it’s still worth thinking beyond your own home country. I’ve been very fortunate to have a global career since I left Canada and blessed with parents who gave me opportunities and encouraged me to travel around the world as a young child. I spent time in Taiwan as a young kid, traveled to Japan for a school trip and through playing violin and viola for youth orchestra got me trips to England and Wales as a young high school kid. It stuck and showed me how big the world really was beyond Canada and the USA.
It’s a tool to get you out of your routines and comfort zone and helps drive creativity in your brain because of the new inputs of new environments, cultures and language. You are literally blind, deaf and dumb as you can’t read or understand the language around you. It’s a forced discomfort. This is helpful to practice your skills of adoption and being comfortable with being uncomfortable.
It’s a tool to get you a new perspective and reframe your thoughts and ideas. In fact, if you end up with a massive disappointment in life like the break up of a romantic relationship, business failure or whatever it is, it really makes sense to leave the environment you spend all your time in. Go to a new city or country and this distance can help you deal with it.
It’s a tool to help you manage your personal finances. You don’t need a lot of money to do this unless you only travel first class, eat at Michelin Star restaurants and stay at 5 star hotels. I try to keep my needs very low, have limited interest in luxury goods and basically am just not that fancy. As long as a place is convenient, clean and I can safely leave my stuff in the room it’s fine. In many of the places I go to, the US dollar goes much further. So I get more stuff for less costs. Geo-arbitrage at its finest. San Francisco is ridiculously expensive, so while it's important to be there for my business some of the time, when I travel I usually end up spending less money in general. I can take the savings and invest it. It also enables me to put more money against the charities I support.
It’s a tool to help you increase your quality of life. I don’t look at relocating or traveling for tax advantage, although it can be. But this is not my goal. I travel because I set up my business specifically to be able to do this. I love living in San Francisco (most of the time) but I have a set routine & habits there which leads to a drop off in energy and creativity if I am there for too long. I basically get bored.
I love a wide variety of foods, nature, ideas and frankly seeing and talking with people from different cultures, economies and industries. These things give me energy but also give me new ideas and perspectives. Being a good investor means you literally have to “Think Different” as per the old Apple advertisement back in 1997 (yes, I am old). Hard to think differently if you are seeing the same things as others and talking with the same people, especially in a cultural bubble like Silicon Valley.
Travel is an incredibly valuable tool for business and it’s a great way to make your life better.
The reason travel is important in life is as Marcel Proust said: “The real voyage of discovery consists not in seeking new landscapes, but in having new eyes.”
And I would add from Saint Augustine: “The world is a book and those who do not travel read only one page.”
Travel can become a great advantage for you career wise as most people just want to stay where they are due to the comfort of home. It is also one of the most fulfilling and fun things you will ever do in life. So get your passport and get on it!
Recreating 2006: My Magic Year of Personal HyperGrowth
As a history guy, I try to learn from the past. The past of societies and civilizations but also my own. Reflection is a valuable tool. When I look back, I believe that 2006 was probably the most productive year ever from a career, health and personal fitness perspective.
I was a salaryman at Yahoo! and a rising executive running Sales strategy and Ad products launches globally. It was an amazing time to be in Yahoo! business was growing like mad from a revenue and user perspective, it was seen as the place to work as we had yet to really get crushed by Google. The place was full of energy and amazingly smart talented people who are now found to be running significant businesses and organizations across the world.
I made the decision at the beginning of the year to sign up for the Tournament of Masters, a one week Systema fight training boot camp. Systema is a martial art used by the elite Russian Spetsnaz special forces, some of the toughest elite soldiers in the world, equivalent to American Special Forces/Delta/Navy SEALs. So to prepare for it, I had 8-9 months to get fit. I spent a lot of time in the gym but more importantly ended up taking Muay Thai Kickboxing, Brazilian Jiu Jitsu and Krav Maga all at the same time. I literally trained 2-3 hours every day, 7 days a week. 1 Hour in the morning, 1-2 hours after work. Couple hours on Saturday & sunday. After a couple months of this, I started to see some unexpected benefits that bled into all aspects of my life at that time.
My health and sleep were better than ever. This was reflected in my work, the clarity of thinking and my energy levels. The discipline it helped instill in me was also incredible. I still had a job to do but limited time. So I became very good about just focusing on 3-4 key things that I had to get done in the day. I was relentless at getting these done so I could make the shuttle bus back to San Francisco from Sunnyvale at 6 pm.
The results of this work led me to get promoted, got good stock option grants and good raises twice that year. I made my bones in the organization and it put me in a position to do whatever I wanted. I took so much vacation time, my boss at the time laughed about my accrued Vacation day count time being in the negative (it was). But I could get away with this because I handled my business & got SH-t done which is all that matters.
Additionally, that training regime made me super tough and confident in almost every aspect of life. I knew walking into a room or restaurant, I could have taken out 99% of the guys in the room in a fight. Confidence and energy are important, especially for someone aspiring for leadership. And I had it in spades that year until I got injured with bruised ribs in a Muay Thai class later that year. My career and travel schedule also took off then, which ironically gave me less time with my training which I credit for putting me on the path upwards.
Now it’s been over 16 years later, I’m looking to recreate this regime with a different impetus. The barbaric Russian invasion of Ukraine, the Covid pandemic, the idiotic Government policy overreach, growing inequality, inflation and economic mismanagement, growing extremism on both the Right & Left of America have me concerned for the immediate future. Call me a Doomer Optimist. And it leads me to think that rebuilding my self defense, fighting and shooting skills may be a good idea. I think of it as insurance, something good to have that you hope you never have to use. And you have the benefit of becoming more confident, being in better shape, and attain good health and energy levels. What’s not to like about this? It’s a no lose result whatever happens.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads Aug 21st, 2022
Scars are not signs of weakness, they are signs of survival and endurance― Rodney A. Winters
"I have no idea how to find the perfect balance between internal and external benchmarks. But I know there’s a strong social pull toward external measures – chasing a path someone else set, whether you enjoy it or not. Social media makes it ten times more powerful. But I also know there’s a strong natural desire for internal measures – being independent, following your quirky habits, and doing what you want, when you want, with whom you want. That’s what people actually want."
https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/lifestyles
2. "The equilibrium that keeps Putin in power -- mastery over rivals, soft support in the population, the integrity of the army -- is challenged by the realities of an unpredictable, costly war. Putin has been good at keeping us all in a fog. But now he himself seems lost in the fog of war.
No one can say what exactly is happening inside the Kremlin. But a general predicament does seem clear. The trap laid before Putin (willingly or unwillingly, consciously or unconsciously) by rivals, by the public, and by the army looks like this: we will all agree with you that we are winning the war — and we will all have no one to blame but you if Russia loses it. This is all quite vague, half-unsaid, clouded by emotion, displacement, taboo, and fear. But it is the general picture. And in its fundamentals the trap was laid by Putin himself.
War is politics by other means; Putin himself chose this war and its atrocities. For the war to end, Putin must feel the politics change around him; and so for the war to end, Ukraine must win. For the West, this means patience and firmness and the consistent supply of the weapons Ukraine needs."
https://snyder.substack.com/p/putins-rule-is-weakening
3. I'm a big fan of this guy's show and the amazing support he provides to Ukraine. He is in Kyiv right now.
https://www.gofundme.com/f/send-money-directly-to-ukrainians-for-food
4. “We find ourselves in an interesting spot because we’ve always been cash flow-positive, and we don’t need to do those things,” said Notion COO Akshay Kothari. “So we’ve been thinking the last six months a lot about ‘Well, if everybody is zigging, how do we zag?’”
Instead of pulling back on investing like many of its peers, the productivity startup has gone on the offense. It acquired calendar app Cron in June and brought on the Flowdash team earlier this month. Notion also leaned into more marketing by launching a global ad campaign — the kind of spending VCs are cautioning against."
https://www.protocol.com/workplace/notion-flowdash-acquisition-tender-offer
5. "Look, I’m not attacking the current administration in the US specifically, or France’s sitting economic leadership—to me, this isn’t an issue that defines particular political parties. Instead, it’s a perfect example of how political leaders as a whole will say whatever they please, even changing the very definition of what a recession is, to avoid taking the blame for an economic situation that exists while they’re in power.
And just like France’s government did during the revolution, they’ll keep making the same financial blunders as always, while manipulating us into believing that nothing is wrong, as they speak falsehoods with silver tongues.
They don’t care about the economic success of the people, or providing the truth. Instead of delivering the difficult news that we should hunker down for an economic slowdown, and make financial choices to prepare for that, they instead tell us it’s all nothing to be concerned about.
Mostly, I believe they only do this in an attempt to save their own skin, so they don’t have to take the fall for a situation they’ve helped create, due to the insane amount of money printing that’s gone on these last few years.
Or in other words, we’re on our own."
https://abundantia.substack.com/p/off-with-his-head
6. "Even with these illiquid challenges, for startups that work out, illiquidity is a feature. Why? When a startup succeeds, there’s a tremendous amount of compounding value. If there were opportunities to regularly sell shares, like with a public company, it’s too easy to do so and lose the upside. Compounding value is one of the most powerful forces. Forced deferral of selling startup stock, in scenarios where the startup is successful, is a feature because it creates the most value and wealth for the team.
Illiquid startup equity is a feature, not a bug, when the startup works out as there aren’t daily distractions of the stock price and the team benefits from compounding the value of their equity at a high rate for the life of their tenure. The next time someone laments about not being able to sell their startup stock, focus on the upsides."
https://davidcummings.org/2022/07/30/illiquid-startup-equity-as-a-feature
7. VC investing principles from the best in the biz.
https://www.readthegeneralist.com/briefing/timeless-investing-lessons
8. This is worth watching. Energy is Life. Great interview with Doomberg.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=65z2cG0QDRo
9. "The most difficult problem still to be solved is how to create in Brussels a common power that can be genuinely independent from French and German interests. The lack of such a power was responsible for Brexit, with Britain having concluded that inside the E.U. it would remain excessively dependent on its old European rivals in Paris and Berlin.
In the longer term, enlargement should be able to take us there. With Ukraine as a member, the simple combination of Polish and Ukrainian votes will exceed the German share. Have no illusions that this is the reason both France and Germany are looking for a solution to postpone Ukrainian membership, temporarily replaced with a different kind of arrangement President Macron called a “European Political Community.”
In the shorter term, we need new alliances between the South, Scandinavia, and Central Europe. But the balance of power is already shifting."
https://time.com/6202299/ukraine-invasion-european-union-becoming-union
10. Consumer startups are really really hard.
https://techcrunch.com/2022/07/22/mark-cuban-hasnt-profited-from-his-shark-tank-investments
11. I've been pretty vocal publicly about what a crap business the micro mobility space (ie. scooters) has been for at least 5 years now. 5 billion dollars poured into this garbage.
https://news.crunchbase.com/transportation/scooter-startups-vc-public-market-lime-brds
12. "But we’ve gotten to a point as a society where there is too much knowledge and it’s outpaced our ability to filter people with that knowledge. There are hundreds of blog posts for how to get into an Ivy League school, but only so many spots available. There are millions of people starting companies but investors are still only funding people in their network, because of the trust filter. Job positions get so overrun with candidates that recruiter doesn’t even reject anyone anymore; They just don’t have time to reply. All of this is a consequence of the world having more knowledge than ever before. This is a good thing, but enough is enough! It’s time we move on to the next economy of the internet; The Access Economy
What is the Access Economy?
If the knowledge economy gave everyone the opportunity to be experts in a field, the access economy is the ultimate human organizer. It matches up the qualified individuals with the right opportunities while using a completely new framework for evaluating and identifying talent."
https://words.seedscout.com/p/the-3-economies-of-the-internet
13. We are in the middle of this Gray war, like it or not.
"The scale and nature of the task is determined by the capabilities of the opposition. In World War 2, the Axis powers had advanced manufacturing prowess, but small populations and a lack of access to fuel. In the Cold War, the Soviet bloc had a lot of fuel and a population similar to ours, but had a small and dysfunctional economy and struggled with advanced manufacturing.
In contrast, a potential “New Axis” of Russia and China would control enormous population, vast fuel resources, advanced manufacturing capabilities, and a combined economy of enormous size. Except for the fuel part, this is all just China."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/the-war-economy-sizing-up-the-new
14. "It’s ironic to think about the touring grind given the remote work vs in-office debates in Corporate America. Many 9 – 5 workers will never go back to a job that requires them to commute 200+ days per year again. Imagine doing that in a different city every night?! Artists’ travel is on another level.
The dream is for artists to have the autonomy to do live performances on their terms. But to get there, they have to shift the business model for how they operate and take a few risks.
The best way for artists and creatives to get off the grind is to build or invest in successful companies. Artists have a distribution advantage given the audience they have built through the content they create and the shows they’ve performed in. Media and content businesses are most lucrative when used as a platform to sell other products. Look at beats by dre, Ace of Spades, Fenty Beauty, and Verzuz. The artists behind those companies grew them and sold at least part of them."
https://trapital.co/2022/08/01/why-artists-should-build-sustainable-businesses
15. I'm ultra pro Taiwan (although I hate the absolutely corrupt Pelosi) but the timing of this trip seems really stupid. (altho I detest the CCP too). We are run by unserious clowns.
"Sure China represents a hegemonic threat to the US but over the medium to longer term. But if the US does not ensure Ukraine’s victory over Russia in Europe then it will have zero chance of countering China over the long term.
Second, Xi faces a difficult leadership battle later this year and surely Pelosi has handed him a nationalist win on a plate. Surely he will react with vigour and China and will rally behind their leader at this time of stress."
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/pelosi-visit-to-taiwan-is-madness
16. "The reason why tech companies have cut first is two fold: 1) many are unprofitable already and they are worried about cash burn and 2) they are the fastest to react to changing interest rates and market conditions. The Tech sector is telling you what is happening in the broader economy and most are in denial about this. If the highest earning people take a hit, why would the services economy (IE. the United States a whole) do better? It doesn’t make any sense at all.
Conclusion: You now have verifiable proof that the major high-end chips are made in Taiwan. Not on US soil. Not on China soil. Taiwan. If China takes over Taiwan and TSMC as a whole, it means all important high-end chips will be controlled by China (hint: spyware!)."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/watching-the-news-what-mid-curve
17. "Computer chips are essential in both delivering precision weapons and evading them. They are a crucial part of guidance systems, cameras and computer vision, other sensors, and so on. And computer chips have become an essential component of modern military vehicles themselves. Of course this all goes double for drones, which are playing an increasingly central role in warfare. And computer chips are absolutely indispensable for lots of other aspects of modern war — electronic warfare, satellites, communications, encryption, you name it.
Given the centrality of computer chips to modern war, a nation would leave itself nearly defenseless if it ran out of supply of high-quality chips in wartime. If computer chips had to be shipped from Taiwan and South Korea, they would be vulnerable to a Chinese blockade. Thus there is a strong national defense argument for promoting and protecting a high-tech, high-volume semiconductor industry here in the U.S. And at least in the U.S., national defense tends to override other concerns.
This is why we’re finally getting our national rear in gear when it comes to government support for the semiconductor industry."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/industrial-policy-starts-with-semiconductors
18. "Basically, Pakistan invests very little of its GDP, so it can’t build up capital over time. Low investment is probably a result of various bad economic policies, but it’s also probably due to political instability — Pakistan frequently alternates between military and civilian control, and civilian administrations tend to be chaotic and fractious (as in the current turmoil). That’s not a very good climate to invest in!
Instead of investing, Pakistan keeps its population on life support with constant external borrowing — from international organizations, from China, from Saudi Arabia, from whoever will loan it money. It uses these loans to fund consumption of basics like fuel. Mian discusses how this has resulted in a perverse fuel subsidy — a pretty common practice for governments that want to keep their populations pacified, but one that Pakistan is particularly ill-equipped to afford.
So Pakistan constantly limps along at the knife-edge of desperate poverty, decade after decade, as generals and politicians fight over who gets to be in charge. Currency crisis or no currency crisis, that is a long-term recipe for disaster."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/pakistan-is-in-big-trouble
19. "It has all created what I call an infinite front: a digital surface area that exposes nearly every single hard aspect of human civilization to cyber risk. Tractors with firmware. Power plants that can automatically adapt to changing power grid dynamics. Warehouses that automatically pick, pack, and ship. Air conditioners that know when you are on vacation.
The world of atoms, not just bits, will soon need robust cybersecurity platforms well beyond current offerings."
https://steinman.substack.com/p/tales-from-the-infinite-front
20. "The safest strategy is to be diversified. And with diversification comes more exposure. At any given point something, somewhere in your portfolio will be going belly up.
The days of stashing everything in Singapore or Geneva and feeling 100% safe are gone. The "new world" we have to live in will be marked by tension, betrayal, and extremely aggressive governments and people."
https://mailchi.mp/1b0552af0181/true-safe-havens-do-not-exist-anymore
21. Andrew Tate is always entertaining. Don't agree with everything but he has a great take on life in general which we need more of.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Uq4cDv2cUoE
22. "YCombinator has cut the number of startups it is funding and training this summer by about half compared to its winter program, a spokesperson confirmed. The famed Silicon Valley accelerator responded to a downturn in the economy and in venture capital funding in reducing its class size.
The move means as many as 250 companies will pitch themselves to potential investors in early September at Y Combinator’s virtual demo day, a biannual rite of passage that helped launch DoorDash and Coinbase. A smaller class could make it easier for graduates to raise money by lowering the competition for investor attention. The downsizing also follows mounting criticism that Y Combinator had grown too large, damaging its reputation for churning out Silicon Valley’s best startups."
https://www.theinformation.com/articles/y-combinator-slashes-startup-accelerator-class-size-by-40
23. Always a good conversation. So many good insights from Balaji.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dXHbToq1SDU
24. This actor was great as Storm Shadow in Snakes Eyes. Total bad ass.
https://www.menshealth.com/entertainment/a40707524/andrew-koji-bullet-train-interview
25. "You should be getting into boxing, BJJ, and other martial arts. You should train with weapons of all kinds, from knives to guns. Help your friends get on the path and pass these skills on to your children. One aspect of forging a warlike nature however, is not talked about nearly enough.
Americans are involved in the fighting arts. Many own weapons and train with them, but the bar continues to slide left, accumulating speed as it goes. It’s not enough to train if you don’t have the Will to Fight.
Ok — I’m not here to tell you to make stupid tactical decisions. The title of this is SURVIVAL. You must begin thinking with strategy and tactics in mind. Have the courage to fight where you can without risking the religion. Where you do fight, let it be in the shadows, away from the mainstream. Study the strategy and tactics of the enemy. Formulate superior methods to both avoid detection and dominate when conflict is inevitable."
https://resavager.substack.com/p/survival-in-the-warrior-religion
26. "Sanctions used to be a bit of a joke, but no longer. The financial sanctions that the U.S. and Europe have leveled against Russia since the invasion of Ukraine have been absolutely devastating. A new paper by Sonnenfeld et al. shows just how devastating, leveraging independent data sources to paint a grim picture of just about every aspect of the Russian economy.
So the question then becomes: If we had to, could we level similar sanctions against China? The likely answer is that yes, we could, but the effect would be somewhat less devastating, and the costs would be much higher.
Anyway, the upshot of this post is that China’s massive and diversified manufacturing prowess simply makes it a lot less vulnerable to sanctions than Russia. But computer chips are one area where — for the next 5 to 10 years, at least — export controls might actually hurt China. So if they seize a Taiwanese island or start a blockade, that should probably be the first economic weapon we reach for."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/could-we-sanction-china-if-we-had
27. "So long as Beijing finds Taiwan’s de facto independence intolerable then war is a serious possibility. Taiwan will become more of an armed camp ready to make China pay heavily should it try to occupy the island and will become even more determined to resist coercive pressures, including by a blockade. US prestige will become more attached to Taiwan’s defence and it will look to allies to play a role, especially if the issue is one of freedom of the seas.
It is not obvious that there is a good outcome for China if it pushes too hard, in the same way that there is no good outcome for Russia in Ukraine. Russia’s experience should warn Xi of the pitfalls accompanying any military action even when the odds look very favourable, including the risk that in the effort to take territory it wanted badly it would end up devastating the land and its people, let alone the possibility of war with the United States.
This is the peril of autocracy – a conviction that a supreme leader, beyond challenge at home and presiding over vast armed forces, should always be able to get what he wants and never needs to compromise."
https://samf.substack.com/p/russia-and-china-perils-of-autocracy
28. Super good interview with Andrew Wilkinson of Tiny Capital from Canada (Victoria!). Lots of great stuff here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R9GWxg7Z3Ok
29. Slava Ukraini!
"After over five months of its full-out war, Russia is employing close to 100% of its conventional military power against Ukraine, with only limited results to show for it.
Russia is steadily losing military power as the country struggles to generate high-quality reserves. It has spent the last month refraining from large-scale operations in Donbas and elsewhere, trying to recover from previous battles.
For Ukraine, this hiatus is a window of opportunity.
While Russia is still coming around, Ukraine's military has the chance to deliver a decisive strike that would allow it to gain an edge over Russia and define the course of the rest of the war. In other words, this could be the war’s turning point.
This third phase could determine the rest of the war. If successful, it could lead to a fourth phase in which Ukraine defeats Russia."
30. Best stuff from the edge of the internet. Not Investment Advice.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=syYl_v36H2U
31. "Venture investing has also historically been very hard to do well (though a little less so over the last few years.) We're likely returning to a point where venture investing is much more difficult if you want to drive outsized returns that justify the inherent fees.
So ensuring your value-add is tangible and measurable is more than just a nice to have, and not only is it an element of long-term survival for a fund, but it should also be something investors are laser-focused on in hopes of improving their outcomes. In a world of well-measured value-add you should start to see more definitive correlation between support and outcomes.
When I talk to folks who are either building newer firms or those who are attempting to improve the way their current firm offers value I often see this sentiment: "The idea that founders shouldn't expect their investors to add value should change. There should be a reaction to actually delivering results.""
https://investing1012dot0.substack.com/p/the-tales-of-their-usefulness-have
32. "From the Ukrainian side, they are only going to get stronger with more Western kit and financing arriving, and no shortage of motivated soldiers - surely Moscow realises now that time is not on its side. The longer it fights this war, the stronger Ukraine and the more impact that Western sanctions will have on its military capability. And remember on this latter front that for Putin the war in Ukraine is just part of the broader war with the West. And we are now entering an arms race, with NATO set to go +2% of GDP spending on defence, and Russia simply cannot match that.
Just do the maths, Western states now reigned against Russia have a combined GDP of what $40 trillion, 2% of that is $2 trillion, which is more than Russia’s entire GDP. Putin needs now to replace half his military destroyed in Ukraine, and spend even more than pre-war just to maintain some kind of military parity with NATO. The longer he continues the war in Ukraine, the longer sanctions and the less able he will be to maintain any kind of military parity with the West - at least in conventional weapons, as nukes are a separate story. Winning in Ukraine is important to Putin but would he want to jeopardise Russia’s broader security vis a vis the West by eroding its conventional military capability so much that it will struggle to counter possible NATO threats (not that I see them). And if Putin is going to try and maintain any kind of military parity with the West, surely this puts Russia back into a guns versus butter (or I-phones) scenario.
Just as an aside here on the energy crisis in Europe. Putin will play the gas card for sure, but he does have to be a bit careful. If he forces Europe, and the world, into recession as seems likely now he collapses global demand for energy and with it energy prices. He will then face the double whammy of lower export volumes and prices, so it will be ironic if only with peace comes the collapse of the Russian economy - guess you might say there it gives him an incentive to try and maintain tensions.
So summarising, my base case is a European energy crisis, brought on by Putin desperate now to get a Ukraine peace deal before year end. Big risk here is that Zelensky might not be able to sell that domestically - polls show 90% want the war to continue until all territory is regained - but lots of Western cash will be deployed to entice Ukraine to the table. But Ukraine will get big Western financing flows anyway, given the need now to build Ukraine as a defensive buffer state against Russia. And in the Schroeder peace offer, there is no way NATO would now accept a demilitarised Ukraine.
The good news for Ukraine in an early end to the war is that the economy is likely to bounce back quickly, as a result of the low base effect, the innovation shown in the war, and the huge Western financing likely to flow into Ukraine."
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/putin-is-on-the-back-foot-in-ukraine
33. "You saw the frontier power of the white devil. Their experiences helped make America the world power we know today. Not only did they make the lands safe for civilization, they excelled at farming and industry, basically supplying war material for both world wars. Americans were often noted in both world wars as being much bigger than their European counterparts as well as better equipped. The American’s warlike nature is in the blood and what’s most important for our people today is remembering that strength of blood.
Early Americans not only had to know how to shoot a gun, but also hunt and fight should they situation call for it. They had to be able to transverse the wilderness. Match savagery with savagery. The True American is a warrior.
You owe it to your ancestors to not be the ignoble ends of your bloodline and country. Make yourself a warrior. A True American who knows the ways of nature and how bad things can get. Take pride in what your ancestors accomplished, don’t buy into the leftist hogwash that you should be ashamed of them. The idea that you should hate your ancestors because of racism is retarded. Everyone is racist, it’s natural, get over it. Step beyond it.
An American Warrior Religion would have the values of the frontiersman and settler, who’s very existence depends on his ability to defend the perimeter and snuff out his enemies. A Kit Carson who followed frontier code of vengeance, whenever he came upon the remains of pilgrims mutilated by Indians. Men who were hard and understood just how far the human body could go. Don’t underestimate the warlike nature in your blood. A warrior religion is first most concerned with the strength and survival of its race. Theology comes after."
https://resavager.substack.com/p/american-warrior-religion
34. This was a thorough and fascinating discussion on the future network state. Worth watching.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5Vsv2tqy1Bs
35. Always a good conversation. Yes, I agree CCP is evil & needs to be destroyed but Pelosi's trip to Taiwan was self indulgent and terrible timing wise & not good for anyone. Good convo on the world economy as well.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jlK5tsUuEP0
36. "Scalable revenue comes from selling things that don’t depend on your active time to make that sale. Josh doesn’t like the phrase “Passive Income” because so-called passive income requires a lot of upfront work to create the product, and some ongoing operations, maintenance, refinements, and monitoring, of course.
But, it is scalable. Once you’ve created whatever it is you're going to sell (especially digital products), you can sell it millions or even billions of times with little extra effort required. Or, once you’ve invested in something you can “rent” (e.g., property, ad space), you’ll make money while you’re sleeping."
https://newsletter.invinciblesolopreneurs.com/p/daily-tip-create-scalable-revenue
37. "Set Up for You: As usual, the only person who matters is you since the goal is to save yourself first. From the above and by using the general framework you can probably pick up a good suburban home over the next 6 months (rough range). Let rates go up, survive your round of cuts (Sept/Oct) then purchase in one of the areas that is seeing pricing pressure.
What happened is people pulled in their move to suburbs/homes. Since your goal is to work remote anyway (we hope) by doing WFH + WiFi on the side, it means you’ll be in a great position to get outside the major city and live in a nice place. As demand dries up, people holding the bag will be more and more desperate to sell.
By way of example, now that we know Tech cuts have moved first (Layoffs.fyi), you can see some weakness in Nevada as sales slowed and prices have come down."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/eth-update-cpiunemployment-read-housing
The Eternal War: the War Within Ourselves
War is awful but sadly it’s been something in humanity since the dawn of time. War is barbarism. Yet maybe because of its base awfulness that it strips us down to our pure survival instincts. War brings out the best of traits of people, like bravery, sacrifice, duty, honor. And on the reverse side, also the worst of us people. We get to see what people really are like, and what they would do to live and survive, especially when stripped of the veneer of social mores and peace.
Everyday, we are at war with ourselves and within ourselves. We are all fighting our own demons. Sometimes unconsciously, sometimes consciously. I would suspect though for most of us, it’s unconsciously. This is because doing requires facing our own worst fears and doubts and most of us would prefer not to. (I wrote about this in a previous post: https://hardfork.substack.com/p/facing-your-fears-the-true-underlying.)
I’ve spent decades doing everything I could to run away or avoid facing it. Throwing myself into my work and career as it’s a handy distraction from working on myself. I suspect this is the case for many type A individuals like myself. It took a pandemic, lockdown, financial challenges, a somewhat broken family life and lots of time to myself that forced me to confront this reality of my fear.
We are all nothing until we decide what to become. And to do that we have to face ourselves. If we don’t do this, we don’t improve and we don’t move forward. You have to face it and break all your old weaknesses, bad habits and mental habits that are holding you back. I repeat the quote from Pablo Picasso, “Every act of creation is first an act of destruction.”
The process is painful but necessary for our own personal growth in life. It helps you find your own truth.
To bear and endure what others cannot. To do what others are unable and unwilling to do. That is what being an aspiring warrior, a leader and a well functioning adult is really about. It’s about facing yourself, which means all the things you like and dislike about yourself. It’s about accepting these things and pursuing the path that is true to you despite all the challenges and social pressure. This is the war you need to fight if you want to build the life you dream of.
The Most important thing in Life: Just be in the Game
Games are a good framework for life.
Playing the game and enjoying the game. It’s a fun way to think about life. And these can be ones you play till the end of your life.
Winning is important, and as a type A personality, I want to win as much as the next guy. But sometimes it is good enough to just be in the game.
Most people in the world don’t even know there is a game, let alone know the rules of it. And believe me, every single game has very different rules. Or even more dangerous for them, they are playing a game that someone else wants them to play. Not necessarily one in which they can thrive in or want to play. This is typically from your parents, your friends or societal expectations at large. It’s usually done not with any bad intentions but the result usually isn’t beneficial for the player.
My Key point: understand you are in a game whether you like it or not. In fact, There are many games happening and picking which ones you want to play in is critical.
The different ones I mainly think about: The fitness & health game. The money game. The investing game. The Parenting game. The Relationship game. The Fighting game. The Family game.
I also played the career game for almost 2 decades and I learned a lot. But I am done working for anyone else now. Knowing when to walk away from a game can be just as important.
But ultimately, win or lose, just being on the field wherever it is, IS the whole point of life.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads Aug 14th, 2022
Endurance is patience concentrated― Thomas Carlyle
Great thread on the importance of semiconductors. Worthwhile read.
https://mobile.twitter.com/BowTiedRobin/status/1549184609732071424
2. This is great because I loved the movie and found these leadership lessons helpful.
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/6-lessons-all-leaders-can-learn-from-maverick-jennifer-dulski
3. This new series does look cool. Also I just plain love and miss Tokyo so much.
https://www.gq.com/story/tokyo-vice-is-crazy-cool
4. Bear Grylls' new diet & food adventures.
https://www.gq.com/story/real-life-diet-bear-grylls
5. These are some pretty interesting and important nuclear energy startups. This is the future like it or not.
https://mobile.twitter.com/BowTiedRobin/status/1549875429955080192
6. "2Q22 saw the largest quarterly decline in VC performance ever observed in our dataset."
https://www.angellist.com/blog/the-state-of-us-early-stage-venture-startups-2q22
7. I consider myself a leftist (maybe left leaning centrist) but this calls to me.
"The life of the first men was hard. They didn’t have to suffer through leftist struggle sessions, but they dealt with saber tooth tigers, Neanderthals in the night, and the true struggle to survive. A man’s will was moved to action by the desire to survive, to master his conditions, and to leave his mark on the world. To accomplish these things, a man had to fight, to go to war, to protect not only himself, but his family, his friends, and his people.
Men are made for war, otherwise the differences between man and woman wouldn’t exist as they do. Not only are they made for war, they’re made for adventure and the seeking of glory. Mankind has built in the prerogative to survive at all costs.
When you lift a heavy weight or are punched in the face, your primordial will is awakened. When you master your conditions and strive for higher horizons, your primordial will is moved to action. When you don’t do these things, when you buy into the zog life, your mind is poisoned. It becomes depressed. You have to reach out for the higher. No matter how hard life gets, when you’re pursuing the great work, you find a way not to get demoralized, to not let your mind get poisoned by the leviathan. Always seek the higher beyond yourself."
https://resavager.substack.com/p/mans-primordial-will
8. I am still bullish on the Ukrainian tech scene & Ukraine in general. Slava Ukraine!
"Despite this and many genuinely terrifying intrusions, the tech sector is thriving in Ukraine, a rare bit of upbeat news in a nation in deep economic distress. Through supply chain disruptions, port blockades and even theft, Russia has throttled the grain industry and the trade in metals, Ukraine’s largest exports. The economy is expected to shrink a startling 30 percent this year, says the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, helping to spark global inflation and adding to fears of recession and job losses.
But there is no way to lay siege to the 200,000 computer engineers and code writers in this country, professionals who need just a laptop and an internet connection to earn a living. Figures from the National Bank of Ukraine show that in the first five months of this year, technology companies brought in $3.1 billion in revenue from thousands of customers, many in the Fortune 500, a jump from $2.5 billion a year earlier.
Customers from Silicon Valley to Seoul have offered lots of ardent “We stand with Ukraine” affirmations during video calls, tech executives say, and many seem eager to support and enrich the country. The worry is that at some point, perhaps soon, this noble impulse will collide with the unsentimental imperatives of running a business."
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/07/22/business/ukraine-tech-companies-putin.html
9. I'm bullish on Uranium as well. Nuclear is back!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bWM70w5oGRg
10. Holy Crap this looks really good. John Wick 4.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=27EF723ZDmI
11. I think about this all the time because I live in the highly taxed dysfunctional mess of SF in the mess of the USA. But I do travel ALOT.
"Because I miss the truly life-changing freedom that being a nomad affords. Because as a nomad, you don’t have to settle for any of the negativity that would impact your life at home.
You don’t have to settle for high taxes, expensive living costs, or an overcrowded city you despise. You don’t have to settle for a long commute, or a failing economy that’s negatively impacting your business. And you don’t have to settle for a corrupt government that only cares about serving the interests of the powerful.
In fact, the whole point of living a nomadic lifestyle is that you never need to settle at all."
https://abundantia.substack.com/p/your-gods-are-deaf
12. "I think people confuse “having it all” with freedom. Having it all leads to the opposite, to more clutter and less freedom. It’s when you subtract all the obvious, what we are supposed to have, that the meaningful can really shine."
https://fewerbetterthings.substack.com/p/the-simple-way-always-wins
13. EU & California's energy policy is insanely stupid. We're all going to pay for it.
https://mobile.twitter.com/DoombergT/status/1550774894618705920
14. "Your first real entrepreneurial success will likely come after a series of failures. When you’re first getting started building a business, you are going to have absolutely no idea what you’re doing (and that’s okay). Your first business will probably fail. Your second business might fail a little bit less. By the time you’re onto your third business, you might catch onto something that actually works. After you’ve been in business long enough, you will have identified a lot of things that don’t work and a handful of strategies that do work to build a successful business. Eventually, you’ll have a decent idea of what it actually takes to get a profitable company off the ground.
It takes a while to become successful in business. Entrepreneurship is a marathon. Becoming a successful entrepreneur and building a profitable company will require working on your business full time over the course of several years."
https://www.mattpaulson.com/2014/09/entrepreneurship-is-an-endurance-sport
15. "The goal is to keep the masses content so there is no civil war or unruly activity. We’re already at a point where crime is up significantly in major cities (NYC, SF, Miami, LA etc.). This is terrible for the ruling elite. The goal of the ruling elite is to placate people and make them feel better about their lives."
"Now you’re probably wondering, why is the government reliant on W-2 items? Why don’t they try to figure out the real numbers and include small businesses etc. Well this is because they know that humans are status chasing monkeys and always “compare” themselves to one another. If you want proof of this just go on Instagram. There is an absolute obsession with proving “high status”. Be it cars, boats, homes, vacation destinations etc.
Since they know people are status monkeys, one way to make the masses feel better about themselves is by *lowering* all of the income bands as much as possible."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/creating-a-21st-century-feudal-system
16. An interesting take that seems to synch with convos I've had with folks actually in Russia right now. Their economy is a lot worse than people think.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/07/22/russia-economy-sanctions-myths-ruble-business
17. A bunch of trading legends here.
https://mobile.twitter.com/Jack_Raines/status/1551261798388596737
18. Solid takedown on web3 poster child Helium.
https://mobile.twitter.com/liron/status/1551738599254773765
19. This article seems to explain the strange policy and frankly cynical & corrupt behavior of German political elites regarding their lukewarm and "supposed" support for Ukraine against Russian aggressors.
Disappointing to say the least but we know where they stand now. On the wrong side of history again.
https://www.tabletmag.com/sections/news/articles/stop-being-surprised-by-germany
20. Any partnership between China and Russia will only flow one way. Towards China. Russia will become a junior partner at best, an inferior vassal at worst.
https://www.gisreportsonline.com/r/china-russia-relations
21. Lots to learn from history. Matthias Corvinus and his Black Army when Hungary was tops in Europe.
https://mobile.twitter.com/LandsknechtPike/status/1470808717822156803
22. I truly believe this as well. One person can make a critical difference.
"There are times in history where the right man in the right place can make all the difference. Accidents of fate, the changing circumstances of fortune, and the randomness of events all conspire to turn predictability into uncertainty; yet a man of learning, vision, and character may, at times, interpose himself in the middle of these whirlwinds and by his actions change the course of history. It happens all the time."
https://qcurtius.com/2018/02/13/the-right-man-in-the-right-place-can-make-all-the-difference
23. "I believe, though, that it is most likely that Ukraine will win this war, on the basis of seven underlying factors that tend to decide the form of armed conflicts: time, economics, logistics, landscape, mode of combat, ethos, and strategy (the TELLMES). In the case of this war, we also have to consider the wild card of international public opinion.
The war has shown that the Ukrainian state (or really Ukrainian civil society) is far more resilient and functional than almost anyone would have thought. Ukraine is, in my view at least, in a position to win this war. But given the nature of its disadvantages, especially in economic power, Ukraine is vulnerable to shifts in how we think about the war. Russia's shortcut to victory, and perhaps its only route to victory, is in convincing us that Ukraine cannot win (or that the war is somehow Ukraine's fault, and that it would somehow stop if we turned away)."
https://snyder.substack.com/p/the-state-of-the-russo-ukrainian
24. "You really don’t need a grand vision for what your business looks like five years down the road. Instead, you just need to put yourself out there and continually learn about your industry and business in general. New business opportunities will start popping up. You will need wisdom and discernment to evaluate whether or not an opportunity is worth pursuing. Finally, you’ll need real ambition to pursue and maximize an opportunity when a true business opportunity surfaces."
https://www.mattpaulson.com/2014/09/how-to-recognize-and-attract-new-business-opportunities
25. "Russia is therefore banking on economic distress leading to political upheavals in Europe and North that will weaken support for Ukraine. This is something of an endurance test because Russia’s economy is also showing signs of stress. The finances may be in good shape because of energy sales but there is not a lot to buy, and industrial production is steadily shutting down.
Europe is also certainly hurting but for the moment this has not translated into wavering in its support for Ukraine. With its own signal that it is prepared to see this crisis through, the EU has agreed to implement a 15% voluntary reduction in consumption of natural gas for this winter. As a Czech Minister put it: ‘Today’s decision has clearly shown the member states will stand tall against any Russian attempt to divide the EU by using energy supplies as a weapon.’
And this is why the battle for Kherson is important. Ukraine is anxious to recover its territory and justify the confidence of its people that this war can be won. In the process it seeks to encourage its Western partners to keep the faith."
https://samf.substack.com/p/the-battle-for-kherson-and-why-it
26. "However, the greatest bottleneck to renewing our industrial base is building a more abundant, capable workforce within hard tech itself. For example, as many as 2.1 million manufacturing jobs could go unfilled by 2030, costing the American economy $1 trillion a year. In contrast, the production and sale of industrial robots is as robust as ever, as robot sales increased a record 43% in Q1 2022.
Even though automation is an essential part of our industrial future, an immense opportunity lies in recruiting more people to address our industrial needs and lay the groundwork for a bountiful and secure world. Put simply, American industry has a talent shortage—not just a technology shortage.
Thus, while automation is helpful for low complexity tasks, not everything can be automated—even at the production level. Physical tasks that may be straightforward for humans can present challenges for even the most advanced machines. For example, the simple task of tightening and loosening screw fasteners is still extremely difficult for robots. Furthermore, even companies as big as Apple have found that humans outperform robots in fine motor tasks like applying millimeter-accuracy glue to surfaces. As Peter Thiel wrote almost a decade ago, humans and machines are good at fundamentally different things. They are complements, not substitutes. "
https://countdown.substack.com/p/recruiting-the-new-industrial-base
27. This is a pretty good discussion & overview of geopolitical ramifications on the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Vm64iIisusg
28. Been wanting to visit Colombia for a long time. This might be a good reason, although worried about their new President messing up their economic success there.
https://mailchi.mp/59d9f0f41a2b/is-colombia-still-investable-following-petros-election
29. Another great episode of NIA. These folks are on the forefront of creative entrepreneurial culture.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2laDa4Z8X_g
30. "Virtue is not a word you’ll hear me use here often because I don’t want to confuse anyone as to what I’m talking about. It comes from the Latin word Virtus(pronounced: weer-tous), which the Ancient Romans used to describe manliness. There may be some connection with the Greek word Arete, but Arete for the Greeks meant excellence. The Romans were a hard warrior people, so Virtus was seen not as we see manliness today, but in a primordial, militaristic way. A man was a warrior and hunter. Hell — in the legion, he was also a construction worker.
Before Virtus becomes the modern virtue, the word became Virtu(pronounced: veer-too). Virtu was an Italian word meaning POWER and the concept of Virtu was developed by Niccolo Machiavelli. Machiavelli defined Virtu as the qualities desirable for a man like his martial spirit and ability to conquer. Virtu meant courage and ruthlessness in the pursuit of great tasks. He also said the man of Virtu must also be willing to “do evil when necessary.”
You must not look at the word evil as we do today with the Christian duality, rather understand, that evil is perspective. Your enemies will happily do evil if it means destroying you and you see it in the actions of the leftist. You must be able to do the same to them."
https://resavager.substack.com/p/virtu
31. This writer is a Right wing A--hole & normally hate his views (which is why I read them to keep my views balanced) but this time he is spot on for a change.
"The average 21st century American politician doesn’t care about you and your family, or even the district he or she represents. As COVID Mania made crystal clear, their main concern is making sure they have the power to rule over you.
Over the past few years, the politicians in charge have authorized the printing of trillions and trillions of dollars in the name of a “global pandemic.” In doing so, they debased the currency and set off an inflation time bomb, making the vast majority of Americans significantly poorer and worse off.
While the average American is now combating the horrors of government and Federal Reserve-induced stagflation, the politician’s patrons are wealthier than ever. The major beneficiaries of this decade’s money printing adventures have been the people who already have all of the wealth and power."
https://dossier.substack.com/p/if-you-want-to-fix-the-economy-separate
32. "Foreign friends who visit Buenos Aires cannot understand how, in the midst of this economic crisis and with the dollar surging to new highs every week, restaurants, bars, theaters and concerts (even international shows that are very expensive) are still packed to the max.
This is how hyperinflationary phenomena work. Same happened in Weimar Germany: people spend their excess cash as quickly as possible, and since saving capacity is next to nothing, they prefer to spend it. For tourists with foreign currency Argentina is one of the cheapest Latam countries now."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/the-weimargentina-rollercoaster-at
33. Good discussion by my fave Geopolitical analyst, Peter Zeihan. Decentralization is coming.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AeFwD1d7V7I
34. "The World is set for an era of not only upheaval, but of new players. Every major name and dynasty is either dead, dying or in the gutter. The Old Guard is gone. Perhaps I am mistaken, but given the current crop of leadership, I doubt it.
The World needs new and proper stewards. Ones that can navigate the problems of today, and tomorrow. Ones that can govern, and make the hard decisions.
I suspect we will need them sooner, rather than later."
https://mercurial.substack.com/p/go-forth
35. "Whichever way you go it does mean increased prices on all energy sources in an environment where recessionary pressures are already building up and where at the same time interest rate hikes need to dampen raging inflation. This is a pretty potent mix for not just a dark winter, but also for a new year full of uncertainty. It seems not everyone is paying attention to this as it is holiday season all over Europe, but there can be little doubt that some will and seek to exploit the political opportunity of a lifetime.
The aforementioned populist right (strong in Germany, France, Italy and, yes, in The Netherlands) have been given another sharp instrument to beat up incumbent centrist and liberal governments. Where first immigration and then Corona helped shape a broad-based populist movement, it may now seek a decisive political breakthrough on the Russia-infused economic meltdown."
https://pieterdorsman.substack.com/p/dividing-the-west
36. "From the perspective of Britain and the EU, the wood pellets they burn were immaculately conceived – the manner in which the pellets arrived at their power plants is not relevant to their carbon emission calculations. By burning “carbon neutral” wood pellets and decreasing their use of coal, European environmentalists get to brag to the rest of us about what wonderful stewards of this shared planet they are, all while being among its worst offenders."
https://doomberg.substack.com/p/back-to-the-future
37. "Not only has Putin exposed the Russian military’s tactical and operational shortcomings, his ill-advised invasion has united the West against Russia at unprecedented levels.
Western arms supplies to the Ukrainian army have totaled in the tens of billions of dollars with no sign of letting up.
The West is also working to wean itself from dependence on Russian fossil fuels. In the long run, such a move will likely have serious consequences for Russia’s undiversified economy, which relies heavily on Western purchases of its oil and natural gas.
Thus far, Putin has only achieved pyrrhic victories in Ukraine. As Russian resources dwindle and the economy constricts, Mr. Putin will eventually need more than leveled cities to invigorate domestic support for the war, not only for the general populace but also for the ruling elite.
Tucked safely away in the Kremlin, Putin has fostered a climate of ruthless realpolitik where failure is not tolerated. If the war in Ukraine continues on its current trajectory, Vladimir Putin may fall victim to the very culture he created."
https://medium.com/@aleonard82/putin-not-the-master-tactician-we-thought-he-was-224af564ba7f
38. "What this warrior religion project proposed is many things, but first and foremost, putting faith back into the warrior. There really hasn’t been a war won by Americans since World War II and what characterized the American armies since then? The reliance of technology. Vietnam was about showing superior firepower, dropping missiles of all sorts just to blow up some Vietcong in the rice patties.
The wars in Afghanistan and Iraq was about how superior American weaponry disabled resistance before American boots were even on the ground. The men in the Middle East and Vietnam refused to believe they were defeated. Overtime, America was forced to withdraw, not because our soldiers didn’t have the will to fight, but our culture couldn’t stomach what it took to fight a real war.
Yes, technology dominates warfare now, but you are a fool to think it will replace the warrior. The nation that puts its faith in the fighting man will always keep its sovereignty and likely, conquer whatever they want to conquer. A warrior religion must, by its name, put its faith in the warrior. The greatest crime of this world is democratic armies where the Commander and Chief is a civilian. I agree when BAP says the only just government is a military one. To let a man who either isn’t a warrior or hasn’t fought for his country run it is part of the reason we’re in the problem we are now."
https://resavager.substack.com/p/faith-in-the-warrior-and-kris-kershaws
39. Lots of good insights for emerging VC Fund managers when fund raising from LPs.
https://www.signatureblock.co/p/how-to-raise-from-lps
40. "Russia's meddling in Sudan's gold began in earnest in 2014 after its invasion of Crimea prompted a slew of Western sanctions. Gold shipments proved an effective way of accumulating and transferring wealth, bolstering Russia's state coffers while sidestepping international financial monitoring systems.
Multiple interviews with high-level Sudanese and US officials and troves of documents reviewed by CNN paint a picture of an elaborate Russian scheme to plunder Sudan's riches in a bid to fortify Russia against increasingly robust Western sanctions and to buttress Moscow's war effort in Ukraine.
The evidence also suggests that Russia has colluded with Sudan's beleaguered military leadership, enabling billions of dollars in gold to bypass the Sudanese state and to deprive the poverty-stricken country of hundreds of millions in state revenue.
In exchange, Russia has lent powerful political and military backing to Sudan's increasingly unpopular military leadership as it violently quashes the country's pro-democracy movement.
Most of CNN's insider sources claim that around 90% of Sudan's gold production is being smuggled out. If true, that would amount to roughly $13.4 billion worth of gold that has circumvented customs and regulations, with potentially hundreds of millions of dollars lost in government revenue. CNN cannot independently verify those figures."
https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2022/07/29/africa/sudan-russia-gold-investigation-cmd-intl/index.html
Finding Your Happy Place: The World is Your Oyster
There are so many wonderful cities and places to go to in the world. But it’s interesting which places you end up vibing with.
So for example, as much as I enjoy London or Berlin or Barcelona or Amsterdam, these are not places I think I could ever live in or spend extended periods of time in. Do not get me wrong: these are amazing cities but for some reason I just don’t feel a deep attachment to them.
I tend to prefer places either more off the normal travel itineraries like Belgrade in Serbia, Tbilisi in Georgia, Riyadh in Saudi Arabia or my beloved Kyiv. I do miss Kyiv greatly (and doubly curse Putin and Russia for their heinous invasion).
Lisbon in Portugal or Waikiki in Hawaii are all popular cities in the world for many people to visit. Yet I have come to feel very much at home in these places. There is this feeling of comfort and attraction when I get there. A good vibe as they call it.
Don’t get me started about Tokyo. This is a place I’ve loved since I first went there as a fifteen year old boy. A metropolis of 30+ million people but full of unique neighborhoods, shops, lovely parks and museums. And absolutely amazing food & a deep craftsperson culture. This is also the reason I deeply love Taipei and Taichung in Taiwan. I certainly would love to spend more time in places like Riga, Budapest, Buenos Aires, Stockholm, Vienna, Mexico City and Belgrade as well.
You pretty much have my list of favorite places outside of San Francisco and Vancouver in Canada. All of these cities are ones that I will be spending much more of my time in the future. My happy places.
Btw: you don’t need to be wealthy to do this, as stated in Digital Nomad classic “The Four Hour Work Week” by Tim Ferriss. You can be doing a remote job, run your own business or even better run your own online business that earns in USD and Euros. Pick the right cities and your quality of life goes up. And more likely your cost of living goes down too.
I think in this new multipolar world, it’s important to have multiple places you can feel comfortable and be at home in. With remote work becoming more prevalent, the increasing availability of Starlink internet connections anywhere and the added threat of overreaching governments everywhere, this is important for anyone who wants to thrive in the new emerging world order. You need a mindset of going where you are treated better. Of going where there are new interesting opportunities and emerging new communities of like-minded people. And of course, finding the cities and communities you vibe most with.
We are entering a world where talent & creativity becomes even more important than ever and the very smart leadership of cities like Dubai, Singapore and Miami are leading the way here. Watch this space!
Age is Just a Number: Older is Not Wiser, Younger is Not More Youthful
I was thinking about this as I turned 48 this year. I decided to spend it in Hawaii because why not? You do the regular things like lots of beach and ocean time, shopping and plenty of good eating. But the best thing is the people watching. Hawaii, just like Las Vegas, is an incredible microcosm of the entire population of America who come to paradise to vacation. You see people of all different races, ages, socioeconomic situations and also physiques.
It struck me that age is a relative thing. I saw 20 somethings who looked and moved like 60 year olds and 60 year olds who moved, looked and acted like 30 or 40 year olds. How many of you have seen men or women aged 40 who look like they are 60 years old. Beaten down by life. A bad diet and lifestyle. Prematurely aged. I am sure we have all met people like this who live a sedentary, aimless and frankly poor lifestyle.
This is in contrast to a professor I met in Hawaii, named Dr. J who created a program called Philosophy for Children at the University of Hawaii, Manoa. He must have been in his early 70s but what a dynamo! With the energy level of a 16 year old teen.
Some of this is due to DNA and genetics, a lot due to lifestyle and diet. The old argument of nature versus nurture. But a big part of this, I think, is due to their mindset and having a bigger driving purpose. Ikigai as the Japanese call it.
The Oxford English Dictionary defines ikigai as "a motivating force; something or someone that gives a person a sense of purpose or a reason for living". More generally it may refer to something that brings pleasure or fulfillment.
This man, Dr. J, has a powerful and infectious energy because he loves what he is doing and is able to spend his life doing it. He was a great reminder to me of why I do what I do.
I look back in my 20s and 30s and think about how hard I grinded, working 100+ hour work weeks. I did it because I was scared of poverty, searching for money and wanting to learn and excel in my career. A big part was when you don’t know anything, you just have to “brute force” it by working hard. You have to do this to learn and go up the learning curve.
I did this also because I just did not know any better. As a clueless dummy who did not understand how the world truly worked. I made a lot of money but I also spent a lot of money. Growing up without much money, I wanted to experience the lifestyle I thought I was supposed to. The typical middle class curse & stupidity of keeping up with Jones by keeping up a high cost structure and struggling paycheck to paycheck. The more money you make, the more expensive your lifestyle grows. You get caught up in this crazy treadmill like a brain dead hamster.
Uggh, I can’t believe I did this stupidly for over 24 years. Although in my defense, in society, especially in the United States we are taught to be “consumers” not “producers.” It takes some time and experiencing not a little bit of pain for ignoramuses like me to learn this and break through this mental block.
Thankfully I did make that breakthrough. And I can honestly say as a 48 year old, I’m more energized than ever before. I get up excited about the day in ways I have never been before. As stated before, it’s because I have a clear mission, I do work I enjoy and get to work with people I genuinely like and respect. Ie. people I choose to work with. But I also value my health and time so much more. I sleep more and nap a lot. I exercise every day & get as much sun as I can, even in foggy San Francisco.
I certainly eat healthier than I ever have. It’s almost criminal how unhealthy and terrible our diets were even just 10 years ago, let alone 20 years ago. And it helps that in my work, I get to spend time with so many young and brilliant people. These amazing startupers and technologists from across the world. I feel like a vampire absorbing their energy, enthusiasm and brilliance. The difference at this stage of my life, I hope I am a little bit wiser and know a little bit more. As they say, “Good judgment comes from experience, and experience comes from bad judgment.”
Age is relative and a state of mind. I hope when people see or meet me they see someone who looks and has the energy of someone 20-30 years younger than my actual age. My aim and hope is that I can show and pass this energy to everyone I meet and interact with along the way. And I hope to combine this with all the experience I’ve learned the hard way.
If this old dog can do this, so can you! Sending my Aloha spirit to you.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads Aug 7th, 2022
Endurance is one of the most difficult disciplines, but it is to the one who endures that the final victory comes― Gautama Buddha
"Building a global, decentralized computing network is impressive. So is launching a telescope into space that can take pictures of stars from billions of years ago. Innovation is all around us. It can take decades to play out, which means it is easy to lose sight of how incredible these milestones are.
The future belongs to the builders. Everything around us has come to fruition because an individual or group decided to do the hard work to create something new. Watching the excitement around the Webb Space Telescope reminded me of how important the builders are. The bitcoin network is no different — the builders are essential to success.
Ask yourself this question, “what am I building?” The answer should tell you a lot about where you are in your journey at the moment."
https://pomp.substack.com/p/the-builders-are-essential
2. "Many books have been written about how Buffett picks stocks. But what is more interesting is how he created conditions of longevity when he discarded the hedge fund structure in favor of Berkshire Hathaway’s permanent capital or how he evolved as an investor by cultivating new friends or mentors. There is too focus on specific actions (in his case investments) compared to the design choices he made in business and life."
https://neckar.substack.com/p/commodities-corporation-traders-innovators
3. Going to Poland in August. It’s a cool place and visiting will help Ukraine too.
https://www.theguardian.com/travel/2022/jul/12/how-a-holiday-in-poland-can-help-support-ukraine
4. "Venture activity and markups have crept back towards the “normal” line, suggesting a potential return to pre-pandemic levels of activity and tenor. Whether performance continues to fall (i.e., moves southwest) or flattens remains to be seen.
Note that, if we’re using the “Normal” line as a reference, then even venture performance during this “Pullback” period would be considered very positive by historical standards. The fact that it's seen as a downturn is a reflection of the bull run early-stage venture has been on the past 18 months."
https://www.angellist.com/blog/forecasting-a-return-to-venture-normalcy
5. Truth: relevant for all founders and probably personally too.
https://twitter.com/gokulr/status/1546956493945069569
6. Love it. Go NAFO.
"An unofficial army of cartoon Shiba Inu dogs is making life hard for people who post Russian disinformation about the war in Ukraine online. They are known as NAFO, the North Atlantic Fellas Organization, a small but growing cadre of shitposters who’ve gathered to raise money for Ukraine and call out obvious propaganda when they see it. It’s getting hard to tow the Kremlin’s party line on Twitter without them showing up in the replies to mock and counter it."
7. Absolutely spot on. Hope founders are reading and paying attention.
"Meeting an investor for the first time can come with a lot of pressure. You want to put your best foot forward, but you must be cautious not to trip over the line between enthusiasm and embellishment. Just like on a first date, investors are watching for potential red flags.
If I think you’re exaggerating, misrepresenting yourself or lying, chances are we’re not going on a second date."
https://chrisneumann.com/blog/how-to-lose-credibility-in-5-easy-steps
8. "So Musk has effectively gone on a rampage, recklessly destroying shareholder value across the board, not to mention depriving lots of investment bankers and lawyers of million dollar paydays. He has not made any friends, even Trump - possibly eyeing a return to tweeting - threw him under the bus yesterday.
But in a very telling way Elon Musk has acted precisely like Trump by promising grandiose things and then failing to deliver. ‘Make Twitter Great Again’ would have been an interesting sub-title to the offer he made only a few months ago and which has now fallen apart spectacularly. Shareholders (of both Tesla and Twitter), employees, Twitter users and audiences, and in fact pretty much anyone else wondered what has just happened. Now it is off to a court in Delaware where the show continues."
https://pieterdorsman.substack.com/p/make-twitter-great-
9. "Today we can store and access pretty much anything via the cloud: books, music, movies, cars, houses, deliveries, clothes, sports equipment et cetera. We can experience everything via access without the burden and high cost of ownership.
It’s quite eye-opening to realize that > 80 percent of what we really need has nothing to do with materialism or consumption but about our relationship with ourselves, and others; our ability to learn and grow; and a clear and worthy life purpose and mission.
While society wants us to skim the surface of everything, spread our attention thinly, react and act to every promoted desire, as human beings I think we need more meaning; to dive deeper, to stay deeper, to live deeper than what’s being offered."
https://fewerbetterthings.substack.com/p/what-do-we-really-need-to-own
10. This man Is a badass and hero. Also a double trident: from US & S. Korean Navy Seals. He shares his experience in the military and fighting as a Foreign Legionnaire in Ukraine against the barbarian Russian invaders.
11. "The most fascinating part of these companies to me is the potential variance of outcomes, along with the historical uniqueness. Theoretically, the distribution of company outcomes is supposed to shrink as the business grows over time. On day 0 (and again, theoretically), it can completely fail or be a $100B+ outcome and everything in the middle. In its terminal state, you should know what it is.
The consequence of yesterday’s private tech markets is that there is a generation of businesses that *look* mature on some dimensions (market capitalization, headcount, etc.) but could realistically go any which way over the next few years given the interplay of large cash piles on their balance sheets and their actual immaturity (how long they’ve been around, revenue scale)."
https://aashay.substack.com/p/dealing-with-a-hangover
12. This was such a great episode. Discussion on Emerging markets, inflation & science.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TsGdPCtquGg
13. This is a must read for all policy makers and Americans.
"To be clear, our goal should be the proliferation of carbon-free energy and a cleaner, better world for everyone. No one wants to kill the whales. But there are crippling second-order effects of this transition that we’re charging toward in blissful ignorance. Chief among them, if we don’t control our critical material supply chains, the path we’re accelerating down will lead to the end of American preeminence, and the global shift to a Chinese world order.
Put in simple terms, America and our allies lack secure access to the necessary materials for developing the next era of industry — not only solar panels, but key components of every machine in our entire technological infrastructure. Incredibly, we have given up our control of these materials by choice. Moral indignation and a sense of virtuous spite have driven us into dependence on what is clearly a geopolitical adversary, twisting us into a Chinese finger-trap. Now, as we slowly wake up and struggle, the grip tightens."
https://www.piratewires.com/p/control-the-metal-control-the-world
14. More on what the barbarian scumbag Putin and his cronies are up to with this so called "Operational pause." May they burn in hell.
15. Another example of badly thought out ESG policy. Curse the WEF & World Bank & all the stupid, corrupt unserious politicians.
"To some, the fact that Sri Lanka achieved a “near-perfect ESG score” and then collapsed is ironic. To us, it is causal. For all the nuanced specifics involved, including government corruption, insane fertilizer bans, and submission to foreign know-it-all experts, at its core, Sri Lanka collapsed because it flubbed its energy policy.
Fertilizer and food are nothing more than derivatives of energy – rather important ones at that – and Sri Lanka stands as powerful evidence that energy is indeed life, and the absence of energy is death. As videos of Sri Lankan citizens ransacking their Presidential Palace went viral on Twitter, we could not help but feel a deep sadness. Absent a massive and urgent intervention by international aid organizations (which does not seem forthcoming), no amount of protesting will win Sri Lanka’s citizens a reprieve. Akin to passengers scrambling through the banquet halls of the Titanic, their fate is sealed. Mass starvation and unthinkable suffering undoubtedly await."
https://doomberg.substack.com/p/running-from-empty
16. "If we want to make a current prediction, it would be another 12-15 months until housing becomes more “affordable” and reasonable. Justification as follows: 1) inventory all time low which means has to go up, 2) rates have to go up, 3) people have to miss multiple payments before being foreclosed/evicted and 4) layoffs still haven’t occurred so that will add another 6-8 months until true pain sets it.
In short, the housing market is likely in round 1 or round 2 of a long boxing match with Floyd Mayweather (of course it goes to decision and housing loses since Mayweather never loses).
What Would Cause a Sudden Swing to become positive? Three things: 1) sudden pivot and stopping rate hikes, 2) sudden pivot to printing money and 3) sudden pivot to on MBS. Right now the goal is to *reduce* MBS on the balance sheet (nothing has happened so far). After they signal they are done reducing the balance sheet then things get a lot more interesting."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/get-ready-for-some-re-statements
17. Eye-opening. There is a commodity boom coming, caused due to our unserious politicians making policy based on platitudes & narrative and not on reality and physics.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wFjbFkNxtFE
18. I attended Anarchapulco back in 2018. Learned a bunch of stuff but it was a wacky conference. This looks like a fun documentary.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z1EA5k34PEM
19. This is sad but may become commonplace in emerging markets.
"So what lessons can other countries learn from Sri Lanka’s crisis? The U.S. isn’t in a similar situation at all, so there are relatively few lessons for us — when we have economic crises, they tend to be of a different variety. But other emerging markets can definitely draw lessons here. First, don’t do boneheaded things like banning fertilizer. Second, be careful about borrowing a ton of money from foreign governments, especially ones like China.
But the best way to make sure you don’t have a currency crisis is to not set yourself up for one in the first place. Don’t run large and persistent trade deficits if you can’t borrow cheaply in your own currency. Don’t borrow a ton of money denominated in foreign currencies. And don’t peg your exchange rate too high. It’s always tempting to play populist and shower your people with underpriced imports in the short term. But in the long term this just never works."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/why-sri-lanka-is-having-an-economic
20. "The question of Silicon Valley’s existence borders upon the spiritual. It is a region that has birthed nearly every major technology development of the last 40 years. If you believe, as I do, that technology must jump radically forward for the human race to survive, then learning what powered the Valley’s output is worth serious study.
The answer to the question, unfortunately, appears to be rich assholes.
To be more specific, the answer appears to be the variety of a-hole known as a venture capitalist.
That, at least, is the thesis of The Power Law: Venture Capital and the Making of the New Future by Sebastian Mallaby. Mallaby posits that it was a combination of semi-unique social variables (Stanford, Hippie Culture, etc) AND a network of risk-happy, early-stage financiers that catalyzed the region’s meteoric rise. These two factors together created a self-reinforcing network of virtuous capital where each successive generation of funder and funded imparted capital and wisdom to the up and coming cohort of builders."
https://every.to/napkin-math/has-venture-lost-its-soul
21. "There is plenty of pride and emotion in this case, and it would be foolish to underestimate it. Musk may decline to negotiate a settlement because he doesn’t feel bound by the law. Twitter may refuse to settle because it feels it must stick it to Musk — who’s routinely disparaged its executives — and see the process through for the sake of its shareholders. And the Delaware Chancery Court may feel its legitimacy is at stake, and therefore opt for specific performance to demonstrate the law means something.
But a settlement that merely inconveniences Musk remains the most likely outcome. And though Twitter — which made $5 billion last year — could use his money, it will likely be deflating for the company and its shareholders after everything it’s endured."
https://bigtechnology.substack.com/p/i-dont-think-hes-screwed-at-all-musk
22. "I still think the likeliest outcome by far is that we’re able to stop great-power competition from escalating to all-out war — Cold War 2 rather than World War 3. I use the term “War Economy”, but like in the 50s and 60s, that doesn’t require an actual hot war between great powers, and I fervently hope there won’t be one.
But in any case, despite my wishes, the world is probably entering an era of intense geopolitical competition, the likes of which haven’t been seen at least since the 1970s and probably since the 1930s. And that competition has the potential to provide a legitimating mission for the reintroduction of the kind of large-scale economic planning that many people have been looking for since 2008. We may not be able to prevent the new era of conflict, but in some ways we can take advantage of it — and in any case, we must do what needs to be done."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/the-war-economy
23. Great discussion on present geopolitics & economics with Ian Bremmer and Peter Zeihan.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZqsVR9Hl2oQ
24. Huge fan of Simu Liu.
"By virtue of his work in Shang-Chi and Kim’s Convenience, Liu has become an outspoken advocate for Asian American and Asian Canadian representation. “We’re a generation that has pretty much only known what it’s like to grow up in the West, and therefore, I feel like we have to fundamentally shift our thinking and our paradigm,” he explains. “We have to not be afraid and not continuously apologize for our own existence the way our parents did. We have to own that space. I want to show people, even if I’m doing it imperfectly, what it means to claim your voice and to be out there.”
Doing so is made especially tricky by the reality that faces many Chinese immigrant families today: the need to straddle their places in both the West and in China simultaneously. In fact, when Liu was first cast as Shang-Chi, he unwittingly found himself at the centre of a contentious conversation about Eastern and Western beauty standards, with some in China claiming that, at least by Chinese beauty standards, Liu wasn’t handsome enough for the role. And yet he never grew up feeling like he fit Western beauty standards either. Liu, like all Chinese immigrants and their children, is torn between vastly different ideologies and cultures, trying to appease both — and, due to the deepening geopolitical divisions of recent years, that gap feels as though it’s been widening."
https://sharpmagazine.com/2022/05/23/simu-liu-profile-cover-story-bfm
25. "Many of you are working crazy jobs you hate.
If you look deeply you’ll see the three deadly sins of status, money or productivity guilt are likely to blame.
Ask yourself, “is this worth it?” Would you still be doing all this work if your doctor told you that you had incurable cancer and had four weeks to live?
Probably not."
26. "Xi is in trouble because the economy is faltering so profoundly. This is not a temporary cyclical issue. Fundamentally, China cannot deliver on the promises it made its citizens. It cannot make people get rich before they get old. It is no longer the cheapest or best place to manufacture things. It’s no longer much fun because the Social Credit System is recording and prescribing every little thing you can do in China.
And, now there are lockdowns. Are the lockdowns really only for COVID? Or, are they also an easy way to keep the public from protesting as the economy goes negative and starts to raise questions as it destroys savings? It was easy for Xi to consolidate his grip on power when the Chinese economy was not just doing well but perceived to be “the future” of the world economy. But, the cracks in the social contract are now overwhelming. It changes the complexion of China’s future to the point that there may be no recovery in China even if the world economy settles down.
China is no longer the cheapest or the best place to make things. It can no longer attract foreign capital for its industry or foreign buyers for its output. China is extremely vulnerable to inflation, which is already ripping through the economy, fuelling protests, and increasing the need to prevent protests. Would a confrontation over Taiwan help Xi retain his grip on power? He may think so. Why? Because nothing allows a leader to align the citizens behind them and wrest power from challengers like war. If the Social Credit System isn’t enough to keep Xi’s opponents quiet, the mere threat of war will. The new aircraft carriers might not scare the US Navy. But they might scare China’s citizens."
https://drpippa.substack.com/p/taiwan
27. China is not the brilliant well run dynamo everyone believes it to be. (Not that US or anyone is particularly well run either).
"Americans didn’t really seem to notice that slowdown. Instead, after China bounced back more quickly than other countries from the initial Covid shock, the dominant narrative became one of Chinese triumph and the eclipse of the U.S. and its rich-world allies.
Such maximalist narratives are nearly always overblown, however, and this one was no exception. In the middle of 2021, China embarked on a series of policy experiments that have brought its economy crashing back to Earth. These included an arbitrary crackdown on the consumer internet industry, an attempt to curb the real estate sector that sparked a huge crash, and a “zero-Covid” policy that threatened to trap the country in an eternal cycle of lockdowns. As a result, China’s GDP growth has now officially slowed to just 0.4%, and given China’s well-known tendency to smooth its GDP numbers, it’s likely that the true number is negative; China is probably now in a recession.
Of course, a recession doesn’t spell doom for the Chinese growth story; countries typically bounce back after recessions. (A maximalist narrative that “China is over” would be just as overblown as last year’s narratives of Chinese invincibility.) The country’s leadership is now hastily backtracking on many of the policies that triggered the slowdown. But so far the reversals don’t seem to be having the desired effect, and the picture that’s emerging is of a Chinese policy apparatus that is far less omnipotent and infallible than many in the U.S. have assumed. If China is going to right its growth ship, I think its leaders are going to need to reexamine the way that decisions have been made in the country in recent years."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/china-is-flailing
28. "Did a young Buffett read a lot? Yes, he certainly did. Did he spend all his time churning through annual reports, newspapers, books, and trade journals enough? No. Buffett understood how to balance his stack of reading materials with a solid travel schedule. He did not expect to solve the world’s investment puzzles solely from the comfort of his desk.
He built and maintained relationships that allowed him to source and discard ideas and evolve as an investor (not to mention enrich his life). Just think about the influence that Munger had on his pivot towards quality investing."
https://neckar.substack.com/p/the-reading-obsession
29. "I’ve said before that the entire American tech industry is going through a midlife crisis at the moment, but Instagram seems to be aging the worst of anybody. For most millennials, it’s now the main way you follow life updates from friends, but it’s also a place to buy clothes and discover new restaurants, but it’s also TikTok for people who still drink White Claw, but it’s also a reality show/propaganda distribution system for influencers and celebrities, but it’s also a Snapchat-stye feed of ephemeral content, but it’s also an NFT marketplace. And somewhere in there, it connects to Facebook Messenger somehow. It’s a mess!
Now, you might say that other social networks are similarly bloated with all kinds of gizmos and hoo-has, but not actually, not really."
https://www.garbageday.email/p/building-a-new-titanic-on-the-deck
30. “First of all, the remote worker is spending consumption dollars in the local economy,” he explains. “More than that, they are also making connections with the local entrepreneurs.”
Choudhury thinks skill-sharing is one of the biggest opportunities for countries, noting that it will be important for them to try and attract the right kind of nomads who can add value to the local community. He points to the Start-Up Chile programme as an historic example. Launched in 2010, it provided visa and cash incentives for foreign entrepreneurs to spend a year in Chile developing their own start-ups and mentoring local talent. At the time, Chile had only a nascent start-up scene. A decade later, thanks to the interchange of ideas, Chilean entrepreneurs have now launched unicorns valued over $1 billion dollars, including vegan food tech company NotCo and on-demand grocery deliver app Cornershop.
“It’s a good example of how an ecosystem can be created if you invite talented foreigners into your country even for just a year,” Choudhury explains. Those who stand to gain the most from the digital nomad visas are emerging economies or smaller nations that’ve traditionally lost talent to bigger countries, he adds: “Before, companies used to be fighting for talent. Now, countries and regions are fighting for talent, too.”
https://www.bbc.com/worklife/article/20220707-the-digital-nomad-visas-luring-workers-overseas
31. This is incredibly fascinating. The Fourth Turning and how Cycles and Generations in history show where the world is going. Worth watching.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lX1Csk2vn5A
32. "He and I had grown up in a world where $1b valuation was rarified air and you assumed that most markets were winner take most. Instead we were seeing private investors accelerate companies to — and well past — the $1b threshold, and many of these valuations growing even further in the public markets. It seemed that the outcomes were bigger than we ever anticipated and each vertical could create multiple huge winners because of market size, massive global reach, and so on.
Paraphrasing, he basically said this was “either what it looks like when ‘software eats the world’ or things had gotten overheated.”
Looking back now it’s easy to insist it’s just the latter, but I’m inclined to believe that both are true. There’s been a lot of chatter about how consumer habits were supercharged during peak pandemic and have now snapped back to normal. We forget that ‘normal’ was still pretty rapid movement to online connectivity, services and shopping. That’s not changing. At the same time, the back offices of SMBs/SMEs have started to SaaS’ify at an increasing rate. And they’re not going back either."
33. "Japan and the European Union (EU) are both engaging in Yield Curve Control (YCC), either explicitly or implicitly. YCC is when a central bank engages in the price fixing — more commonly known as “manipulation” to us non-central bankers — of government bond yields. The central bank prints fiat currency, and then purchases its own bonds to artificially cap yields where they wish. Remember — when the price of the bond goes up, the yield goes down. This intervention weakens the domestic currency, ceteris paribus."
https://cryptohayes.medium.com/a-samurai-a-knight-and-a-yankee-211bf975a31d
34. Very good discussion on how to use Rock, Pebble & Sand framework of project management and prioritization.
https://longform.asmartbear.com/docs/rocks-pebbles-sand
35. "It would be a lot easier if we knew in advance when our businesses would no longer be economically viable. We could plan ahead and start something new well in advance of when our businesses are going to get disrupted by something else. Since we can’t predict the future, we should plan assuming that our business may no longer exist in the near future. There are two ways to do this: get your finances in order and adopt a portfolio model of doing business.
Whether you’re an entrepreneur or an employee, it’s very likely the business that you’re involved with ten or twenty years from now won’t be the same business you’re involved in today. We shouldn’t be surprised when some outside force causes us to make a job or a business transition. It’s going to happen sometime, so be prepared for it."
https://www.mattpaulson.com/2014/09/your-business-will-fail-eventually-heres-what-to-do-about-it
36. Very helpful stuff.
"Do want to build a brand? Go sell some software. Want to improve your brand perception? Go sell some software. Want to have a distinctive brand visual territory? Go sell some software. You see the pattern.
Some startups put the cart in front of the horse. Don’t do that. Found a company. Create a product. Get product-market fit (PMF), i.e., determine some problem you solve for some person with some product.
You don’t need a brand before you have PMF. Go get PMF. Go sell some software to prove there’s a market. Then you can start thinking about branding. Then people start to wonder about some of those brand-y questions, like who are you and what do you stand for?
In this post, I’ll use a six-point branding framework and share my thoughts on how each element applies (or doesn’t) to startups."
https://kellblog.com/2022/07/17/practical-thoughts-on-branding-for-software-startups
37. China is in bigger trouble than people think.
https://twitter.com/michaelxpettis/status/1548523247825993728
38. "Traveling around the world for 6 months or so while working remotely to ride out the economic turmoil in places where their incomes maintain a higher standard of living. Ie: a quasi-temporary snowbirding.
This is most likely what will happen moving forward. People that want to maintain self-sovereign lifestyles will leverage remote work and other digital age opportunities to maintain their lifestyles. They’ll look to relocate temporarily or semi-permanently to avoid economic hardships, unfavorable policies, and live the life they want to.
The bottom line is that you cannot afford to ignore the war in Ukraine.
You can’t ignore how Russian aggression impacts fuel supplies. Or how Western nations scramble to maintain their green energy policies while lack of fuel causes their economies to implode.
These factors will impact your ability to make choices with minimized outside influence. But if you pay attention, you might be able to take action to maintain the continuity of your lifestyle."
https://dougantin.com/personal-sovereignty-the-global-economy
39. This is really really educational.
Good discussion on how the West is under siege by extremists internally. PC Progressives out of control. (not to say the nutters on Right are any better either).
Amplified by our enemies in China & Russia.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=739KAsb0g1Q
40. Good advice.
"If there is one thing I have learned from my (almost) 59 years, it is that every crisis is an opportunity in disguise — a chance to grow. And in every way. Both personally and financially.
But to understand it, you must have the right mindset.
Indeed, it only takes a little to change everything and take full advantage of what life offers.
It all depends on how you look at things and how you look at you life."
41. "If you don’t like the idea of living in an economic technocracy where you’ll be required to rely on the services of mega-corporations to survive, there will always be places you can go to avoid this. Sure, you may have to give up familiarity, your friends, and some of the more modern services you’re used to at home, but this may be a small price to pay if you desire to live a more free existence, instead of living a shadow of one.
And if you live in the west, maybe one of the only solutions to attaining this kind of existence will be to go where these companies aren’t.
I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again—maybe now is the time you start taking steps towards acquiring that second passport or seeking new nations to become a resident of. It may take time—possibly years—to take the steps needed to make this happen, so the best time to get started is now."
https://abundantia.substack.com/p/ownership-is-dead
42. "Conclusion and Action Items: This downturn is not going to be like any other down turn. It never is otherwise everyone would make the right choices at the right time.
If you needed a car? Wait 6 months for the delinquencies to hit the used market.
If you want a home? You should be one of the happiest people assuming you’re a cash buyer.
If you run a WiFi Business that is profitable? You’re going to see socio-economic jumps like you’ve never experienced before. In 2008-2009 it was one of the ONLYtimes in the last 20 years to jump 1-2 socioeconomic classes.
6-12 months Buys: Cars and first time homes if you have the income to support it.
High-Risk Buys: Likely around when the Fed stops hiking, which could be as early as October or as late as 2023. The key point here is that crypto/tech will price in hikes RAPIDLY. If you’ve been watching the stock market you can go back in time and check the NASDAQ after 2008-2009. Incredible gains."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/quick-market-changes-its-not-the
43. Hope this Russian army collapse happens soon. The reality is logistics really matter.
https://nadinbrzezinski.medium.com/logistics-collapse-945984f5d48e
44. "To start, then, maybe McCormick will be among the cohort of multi-million-dollar one-person organizations that proliferate in the next 20 years. McCormick launched his free Substack newsletter Not Boring at the start of the pandemic and has managed, over these two and a half years, to become a man of the moment. He’s grown his audience from 400 readers in March 2020 to over 125,000 as of June 2022, raised two funds off the hype of that audience and the quality of his words, and made at least 30 investments in startups of all sizes.
And he’s done it all without the help of a full-time team. Instead, he’s tapped into a range of companies to get set up — a clunky toolbox of products and services that don’t work very well with each other but are effective and sharp on their own, and are still miles ahead of what we had access to five years ago."
https://meridian.mercury.com/packy-mccormick-one-man-show
45. Interesting experiment.
"Cabin is built by creators, for creators. On web2, creators might have made money off YouTube, TikTok, Gumroad, or Substack. On web3, the same creators might make money at Cabin.
“People underestimate the extent to which low barriers of entry to work completely change the nature of a firm,” Hillis explains to me over cups of tea, speaking quickly despite the need for caffeine. He drinks earl grey. My choice is spearmint.
“If you look at a typical company, the founders and investors own 80-90%,” he goes on. “All of the employees own the other 10-20%. It doesn't make sense. It's not who is producing most of the value. We wanted to flip that model on its head. With the DAO, the community controls 80% of the tokens; the founders and strategic partners control 20%.”
https://meridian.mercury.com/how-jonathan-hillis-cabin-became-a-dao
46. "Devotion to Heracles is the act of lifting in the gym, to get stronger. It’s venturing out into nature to conquer terrain and hunt. It’s doing these things with your friends to build cohesion and loyalty unseen in modern times. Devotion to Heracles is taking care of your own as Heracles did for the Thebans he grew up with. It’s choosing the long and unforgiving road of virtue over the easy road of comfort and excess. It’s undertaking great labors in the pursuit of the Great Work and Undying Glory.
There is no better path for the dispossessed American than the path of Heracles. These times have made us soft and weak. Americans are in dire need of labors, of exerting their will. They — as Heracles had to — must choose between the easy road of safety and comfort or the long and unforgiving road of virtue.
No American is innocent in this, we all bare responsibility for what’s come to pass. Will you take the steps to correct course and bring salvation to our people?"
https://resavager.substack.com/p/the-sons-of-heracles
47. Fingers crossed. Slava Ukraini!
https://kyivindependent.com/national/what-would-a-ukrainian-counter-offensive-in-kherson-look-like
48. This is why you need to be rich, be connected, have a solid crew be trained and armed. For Freedom from the garbage being pushed by the Mainstream media & elitist Davos crowd.
"Conclusion and New Set Up: At this point the objective is clear (to us). As food prices go up and a focus on sustainability becomes more popular we’ll see people slowly justify their decisions. If it becomes socially acceptable to eat tons of bugs, the virtue signaling will kick in. They are not eating bugs because it is more affordable. They are eating bugs to “do the right thing and help the environment”
This playbook has worked for a long time. Making a new moral angle around extremism.
Up to You to Decide: As usual there is no fun in talking about the past since it doesn’t add much. The question is if this is actually part of the strategy to normalize a lower quality of life under the guise of “sustainability”. In a few years we’ll find out! You have our best guess right here already though. Normalization is part of the plan."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/slippery-slope-govt-lowering-standards
Data Volume and Sample Set Matters: Becoming a Better Venture Investor
The reality is that most venture investors and angel investors suck. They suck usually because they are arrogant or think they are smarter than you really are. It does not help that we have gone through a massive boom since 2010 and an even bigger excessive boom from 2020-2021 which has masked a lot of weakness and stupidity. So almost all early stage investors look like geniuses with the crazy good mark ups! (thank you Softbank Vision Fund & Tiger Global!). That’s changing very quickly in 2022 as the stock market and private market has imploded and the tourists have disappeared.
But I think the biggest reason that venture investors suck is because they have NOT gotten in enough repetitions to get really good.
It’s like when you meet an AI company, and they brag about how awesome their algorithm is. But then you realize how useless it is when they have NO access to data or no sample set.
The principle is relevant to being a venture investor. Like trying to do anything, you have to really suck first. Your first couple of deals are going to be terrible because you have no idea what you are doing. Add in the inflated egos coming into the VC industry, this process takes a bit longer.
For dummies like me, my 8 angel deals were complete write offs, my first 80+ deals as venture capitalist were not great. (I think I had 1 or 2 that were doing very good, the rest were meh~). My really big winners did not show up until after I learned from these. It’s like they say “There are humble investors and those that will be humbled.” It definitely helped that I did many of these investments via the accelerator program so you get pretty good feedback within 4-6 weeks working very closely with them in a 3-4 month program. This is in contrast to the much longer feedback cycles with regular seed deals. You really won’t know anything until they start growing and raising subsequent rounds and you are at arms distance most of the time. You need to do this in large numbers to finetune your radar and sense.
Now fast forward 9+ years later with over 450+ investments I’ve done and with hopefully a pretty decent track record, I can honestly say there are not that many investors out there who have my data sample set. You have to be a complete idiot (which I sometimes am) to NOT learn from this.
This sample set allows me to understand what is local maximum versus global maximum ie. what the global standard looks like. I’m able to compare all the founders I meet with what are quantitatively and qualitatively the top 10% of founders I’ve invested in and worked with. This is critical in the pre-seed and seed stage that I invest in. It allows you to compare and contrast: how does this founding team compare to the team at Shippo, Aircall, Pipefy, Manychat, RapidAPI, Embroker, Printify, Chipper Cash etc etc? It’s a great filter.
So my point is in a business as challenging and that changes as much as the venture capital business, sample set & repetition matters. You have to do MANY deals to understand what you are doing (and/or get coached & mentored by the best).
You need to love this game and be prepared to play it for a long time. Additionally, you need to approach this with a learning mindset and a large sum of humility because you will get it wrong most of the time. A great VC gets 1 big massive winner in 1 out of their 10 deal portfolio which means they are wrong 9 times out of 10.
And maybe most importantly, don’t mistake a bull market for genius! :)
Pain is Information: Embrace it
I have a tween at home and like many other parents experiencing this, it is certainly educational. I’m personally having a hard time adjusting to her growing up. I say things that unintentionally make her mad. And then she says some pretty harsh things to me as only your kid can. So painful. But this pain is helpful in the long run. It’s an indicator that I’ve messed up somewhere and that I need to fix it.
Pain can be physical or emotional. Pain is a guide. It forces you to adjust your ways or shows you something that worked well before no longer does. Nothing like thinking you are good at fighting and then get punched in the face in a fight.
It shows up in your family life. It shows up in your business life. Losing money from a deal or investment is oh so painful. These are signals that you are doing something wrong. It is a critical piece of feedback on your life’s direction and plan. Yet from our relatively cushy lives we are taught to hide from pain. To reduce it. And this is why so many of us live mediocre and unsatisfying lives.
Pain is reality. You have to Face the reality. Don’t hide from it. Dig into it. Understand why it’s happening.
A saying I’ve adopted is “Better a harsh truth, than a kind lie.” Never lie to yourself, as this just delays the pain, which just delays the inevitable which makes it even more painful later on.
When you embrace the pain and use it for the signal that it is to get better, you inevitably get stronger and better. Just like exercising at the gym or doing some very physical sport.
As the US Marine Corp motto goes:
“Pain is weakness leaving the body.”
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads July 31st, 2022
“Only those who attempt the absurd can achieve the impossible.” ― Albert Einstein
"Novel infrastructure often enables new software. We refer to each wave by its architecture advance: internet, mobile, cloud, data lake, single-page apps, containers, serverless.
At some point, startups tinker enough with the new technology to discover the applications customers value most. Then the infrastructure innovations disappear beneath the delightful application and we move onto the next wave with its own buzzwords.
Web3 will disappear just the same."
https://tomtunguz.com/web3-moniker
2. Rundown of the Dutch farmer mess.
Another typical well intentioned, badly thought out, horribly executed plan by elitist out of touch technocrats and politicians with no understanding of . Par for the course these days in the west.
https://pieterdorsman.substack.com/p/the-dutch-farmers-revolt
3. Hmmm.......I hate the Wandering Investors apolitical view.
But I agree Hungary is a very interesting place, even though I hate Orban and his Pro-Putin stance. But I do love Budapest and Hungarians. Good case for investing in Hungarian real estate as foreigner.
4. This is fascinating. Investing in a Teak Wood Plantation.
"Teak’s core qualities are that it is resistant to termites, fire, rot and fungus. No wonder it is in such demand.
Teak’s two biggest markets are India and China, with India being the number one importer in spite of having a substantial local source of teak.
In 2014, the Burmese government started imposing drastic policies to restrict the logging, and export of teak. As Myanmar represented 75% of the export volume, this resulted in extreme tightness in the global teak market. This meant that new sources of teak had to be found, mostly stemming from plantations rather than the natural type found in Myanmar.
Latin America is now a large “producer” of teak wood, mostly driven by private businesses, with Brazil and Panama taking the top two spots. The weather and climate are perfectly adapted to teak trees.
Teak trees typically get harvested after 25 years. So when investing in a teak wood plantation, you are looking at a (very) long term investment."
5. About time.
"Hollywood has long bent over backwards to give Chinese censors what they want. Not anymore."
https://www.cnn.com/2022/07/08/media/hollywood-china-censors-box-office-intl-hnk/index.htm
6. Slava Ukraini!
"But overall, the Ukrainians are going toe-to-toe with one of the larger military powers of the world. "This small country, that didn't have an enormous army beforehand, but this one small country has been able to hold this [Russia] at bay in many cases and give up very little ground," he said.
"I don't want to appear overly optimistic here, but history is full of examples of small countries like this, who display their will and are able to hold their own," he said. "We celebrated one of them last Monday [July 4]. And I'd like to think the Ukrainians were demonstrating the same to the rest of the world, right now."
7. Shocking and sad news in Japan on the assassination of former PM Abe. RIP. He did a lot to help his country & the region.
"This post provides as good a summary of Abe’s effect on Japan as any I could write today. Basically, I identified three big things:
--Abe’s economic policies boosted corporate hiring and made it easier for mothers to work, raising labor force participation dramatically for women, young people, and the elderly.
--Abe ended Japan’s pacifist era by “reinterpreting” the constitution to allow for a more normal military; this will probably result in Japan boosting defense spending and taking an active role in helping to defend its regional allies, such as Taiwan.
--Abe dramatically expanded immigration to Japan, causing demographic shifts that will reshape Japanese society in the decades to come.
Now Abe is gone, tragically cut down by a crazed assassin’s bullet. He will be missed. But the new Japan that he built — and that the Japanese people built during his seminal years in office — will remain.
Leadership is still important in the modern world. And during the 2010s, Japan had it."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/abe-shinzo-a-retrospective
8. As always, there are so many amazing insights here from Balaji on the Network State.
It’s a must watch if you want to learn what the future will look like.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sa3lR78ddFk
9. "Hedge funds, banks, brokers – they are all linked, and the way they are linked is through cash and collateral flows. Across the system, cash is borrowed, assets are bought, and assets are used as collateral. It’s a three-layered system: assets, funding, collateral. Most of the time, it works smoothly but when the layers become too tightly knit, problems can cascade.
In one way, recent events in crypto help to shine more light on the events of fifteen years ago. Everyone has their pet theory of the cause behind the financial crisis: low interest rates, government housing policy, unsustainable credit demand, weak credit underwriting standards, mixed public/private mandate of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, China’s accumulation of dollar reserves, failure of financial regulation, role of credit rating agencies, growth of shadow banking system, poorly designed compensation schemes, financial institution leverage, mark-to-market accounting, financial institution interconnectedness, perception of ‘too big to fail’, short-selling, and so on.
But in the time since, we’ve watched an alternative financial system evolve unfettered and it’s ended up in the same place. Maybe it’s not any individual component of the system that’s the cause; rather, instability is an inherent feature of the system."
https://www.netinterest.co/p/the-hedge-fund-the-bank-and-the-broker-481
10. "Volumes could be written about the mixed metaphors that are butchered across all of venture capital. But these two phrases are pretty straightforward. A tailwind blows in the direction you're traveling and pushes you forward. A headwind blows against you and makes the going more tough.
You can have a powerful tailwind with no good company to ride it and you can have a great company with no tailwind. When developing an investment thesis it's focused on both. But understanding the tailwind and why it's a "big deal" can help focus your efforts in evaluating the company tackling it and how well they're positioned."
https://investing1012dot0.substack.com/p/tailwinds-whats-in-a-thesis
11. "One of the more popular questions I get is, “What are characteristics of successful entrepreneurs?” Beyond basic personality attributes like passionate, opinionated, confident, resourceful, positive, and self-motivated, I like to offer an even more qualitative thought: successful entrepreneurs have often overcome a challenging life experience."
https://davidcummings.org/2022/07/09/challenging-life-experience-as-entrepreneur-characteristic
12. This is invaluable for founders and employees. Know your financial runway.
https://www.mattpaulson.com/2014/08/how-much-financial-runway-do-you-have
13. Tips on living the simple but very good life from someone actually doing it.
"This is how less is more, by freeing up time, money, and attention. Very important in a society that constantly is craving our time, money, and attention for its own benefit; preferable for free to monetize tirelessly with very little or no benefit to ourselves."
https://fewerbetterthings.substack.com/p/reduce-everything-down-to-genius
14. "Fast forward 14 years. An eerily similar and somewhat ironic replay of the global financial crisis is unfolding in the universe of digital currencies. After the total value of all cryptocurrencies reached an apex of just under $3 trillion last November – of which Bitcoin accounted for roughly $1.3 trillion – a rolling crash of epic proportions has wiped out more than two-thirds of that digital wealth.
For crypto, however, there is no central bank standing by willing to bailout those who are caught up in the contagion. In many ways, we are observing in real-time what would have occurred on Wall Street if the concept of “too big to fail” hadn’t come to dominate our corrupt political discourse and AIG had been allowed to collapse. How will the crypto crash continue to unfold, when will it be over, and what is to be made of the assets and technologies that survive this crisis?"
https://doomberg.substack.com/p/wen-bazooka
15. I'm a fan personally. Happy user of Substack platform for my newsletter.
"Since its founding, in tandem with an industry-wide pivot toward digital subscriptions, Substack has aggressively pursued that goal, making it both a darling of the media world and a breakout star of Silicon Valley. More recently, the company has found itself on the front lines of the culture wars.
Its laissez-faire approach to content moderation, which sometimes gives voice to objectionable figures booted from other platforms, has made Substack a lightning rod in the debate over regulating free speech. But even amid bursts of negative media coverage, Substack has maintained a large and loyal user base, and there are no signs of an exodus."
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2022/05/substacks-founders-dive-headfirst-into-the-culture-wars
16. Fascinating.
"This simple icon — a yellow circle, two dots, a smile — retained relevancy through 50 years of cultural movements, from free love to raves to the digital revolution.
And in the process, it became a family-owned global licensing empire worth more than $500m per year. But how did it get there?"
https://thehustle.co/who-owns-the-smiley-face
17. Big user of functional mushrooms. One of the best bio hacks around for improving your cognition (ie. mental clarity) & improving your immune system.
"Plummer began taking functional mushrooms at the beginning of the pandemic and quickly noticed results. "I felt like I was protected from getting sick," he says. "My immune system was boosted. My allergies went away. I rested better."
https://www.westword.com/news/mushrooms-jake-plummer-again-health-cte-cbd-14106979
18. Very helpful to understand what the future industrial materials industry will look like.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UN6F53VN4lo
19. Very cool. Another Creator turned Investor. Mario has a great newsletter worth reading.
https://www.readthegeneralist.com/briefing/generalist-capital
20. "I’m trying to make the point that no matter what crisis arises, and no matter the financial or economic stress you’re currently under, your leaders will never take any of the heat for it. When life becomes unaffordable, unreasonable, or unliveable, they’ll blame foreign powers, past events, and potentially even you.
It doesn’t matter who takes the fall. As long as it’s not them.
To many, it’s a terrifying thought that our leaders are almost without exception either incompetent, asleep at the wheel, apathetic towards our needs, or at worst, blatantly corrupt. But to me, accepting these truths isn’t something to fear.
Instead, I see it as an open door.
It’s an opportunity to realise that when it really comes down to it, you’re on your own. That no matter who is to blame for the greater financial circumstances that are affecting your life, your leaders are never going to admit fault. Most likely, they’ll deflect to whatever scapegoat is convenient at the time, in an attempt to direct your anger elsewhere.
I’m here to tell you that regardless of who is to blame for the financial circumstances of the world right now, it shouldn’t really matter. All that does, is the actions you personally take to improve or enrich your own financial life."
https://abundantia.substack.com/p/the-financial-mind-war
21. We need more of this. Investing in American Dynamism. And being positive sum. Great interview here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1jjW_SzOrsM
22. "What's the secret? Why do older founders often fare better?
Experience!
Folks in their 40s, 50s, and 60s have accumulated skills, work experience, intuition, connections, and financial resources. Older founders can "stack" these advantages when they launch their company.
In many cases, it's someone's personal network that makes the difference."
https://justinjackson.ca/old-founders
23. Good thread on why US defense of Europe is critical to also deterring China.
https://twitter.com/MMazarr/status/1546269000967065606
24. Lots of wisdom here. It's not just about money but about life and generosity.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fn6TJY3SNJw
25. It's going to be a rough next couple of years. Signals of massive systemic breakdown in the world.
https://twitter.com/wolfejosh/status/1546322468524146688
26. "The re-invigoration of NATO, through enlargement and increased military capabilities, is the opposite of what Putin intended when his forces invaded Ukraine.
Instead of a divided, indecisive NATO, Russia is now economically crippled and hemmed in on all sides. Furthermore, countries in its perceived sphere of influence have used Russian aggression as the final straw to seek closer ties with the West, finally leaving Russia’s orbit.
This has revealed Russia for what it really is: a diminished power with nothing to offer except aggressive nationalism and terror."
https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/russian-war-crimes-in-ukraine-are-backfiring
27. Lots of really good discussion on building & his observations on what’s happening in tech and society. Marc Andreessen, investor and builder, Silicon Valley legend.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uJ1HfDqM7ns
28. I so love this story. Help as many people on the way up. It's the smart but also right thing to do.
https://twitter.com/kevinleeme/status/1546573149218693120
29. For any aspiring entrepreneur, this was an amazing interview. I personally learned alot. Rob Dyrdek.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lGXcZwU23xM
30. The world has changed in VC. The markets evolving view on Tiger Global. Net net: probably going to be licking their wounds for a while.
https://sarharibhakti.substack.com/p/tiger-then-tiger-now
31. This is such an educational and infuriating discussion. We are run by idiotic, unserious people in Europe and the USA. We deserve better.
Lots of good ideas on how to fix our stupid energy policies and gut the war criminal Putin's economy intelligently.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wy8oD8WH8VE
32. Good summary of Balaji's book the Network State: with Bowtiedbull interpretation. I'm 1/3 thru the book, its worth reading.
"Conclusions: Big picture message from Balaji (our interpretation): 1) he is negative on USA global power future, 2) he is also suspicious of all the China activities given overreach potential with the Digital Yuan, 3) unsurprisingly bullish on crypto, 4) would say that the steps to a digital nation make sense - would argue that the book doesn’t provide much in terms of a step from digital to going physical ie. step 2 to step 3 and 5) grass roots bottom up is one of the better strategies for starting a digital nation."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/network-state-creating-a-country
33. "The FINRA Investor Education Foundation promotes basic diligence hygiene: learn to recognize red flags, know which questions to ask, and independently verify answers.
Over-optimistic, deceptive or fraudulent investments are over-concentrated in areas of new technology. New technologies are characterized by their uncertainty of success. This requires selling potential investors a narrative about future possibilities as opposed to visible cash flows. That is natural! By definition any novel disruptive technology lacks a track record. Investors who avoid innovative technologies altogether because of this ambiguity ignore the inevitability of change.
However, this inherently ambiguous futurism also lends itself to bad behavior."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/on-bullshit-in-investing
34. I'm actually pretty bullish on Japan but also recognize I love the place so probably VERY biased. But planning on investing in the market there.
"Now, if Japan is a small part of your global portfolio and you’re looking for a quick filter, just work out a model like you usually would for an equivalent American or European company, then take your usual investment timeline and double it to see if it still meets your hurdle rate.
As for what a perfect Japanese stock would look like, my personal preference is slow growth, no surprises, and an attractive price. The book Tree-Ring Management by Hiroshi Tsukakoshi captures this well."
https://www.asiancenturystocks.com/p/10-questions-with-clayton
35. Excellent tips on how to start a remote service business or even for any business. And also below: how to craft a good offer.
"For that I have 5 questions I answer to help me craft a decent offer, I call these…
Offer Components: 1) Who is it for? Ex: Life insurance companies; 2) What is the solution? Ex: get more leads; 3) What is the opportunity? Ex: Dynamic database of new families; 4) Unique mechanism? Ex: Family Finder and 5) Business model (price/terms)? Ex: Pay per lead
I completely made up the answer to the questions above, but pretend I have a service business targeting insurance companies and I help them get more leads.
Questions 1 and 2, give you the niche you target and the solution you provide. Simple enough. However, things get fuzzy after question 3.
Question 3 needs you to lay out the opportunity, why is this relevant? How is it different? We all have a process of doing things.
Question 4 literally names the process laid out in question 3. It sounds tacky, but I have cold data from sending thousands of cold outreach messages that if you have a unique mechanism, you just get more responses from prospects.
Question 5 describes your business model, and how you decide to get paid. Once you’re done with those magic 5 questions. I want you to list pains that your prospect has. The more painful the better."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/how-to-start-a-remote-services-business
36. You have to admit this is incredibly clever & creative for a scam.
Fake IPL Cricket league.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-62123966
37. "The only way out of this war is to ensure Russia will lose decisively. Nothing else will do the magic of a pullback by the invaders and/or a negotiated settlement that Ukraine can live with, and that includes security guarantees as well as a reconstruction package. Putin will have to feel the pain. Any other outcome will embolden him and the ongoing threats over the Baltic states will have to be taken seriously.
It will require phenomenal political will to at the very least keep NATO supporting the effort, ensuring sanctions will remain in place and apply whatever it takes to break the back of the forces that unleashed this ghastly war. The more intense this gets, the more likely it is that tensions between Russia on the one hand and Ukraine and NATO on the other will rise to seriously uncomfortable levels. To add to this is the fact that Russia is loosely partnered with China and - as we found out just yesterday - taking arms supplies from Iran. More ingredients for a deepening crisis.
But long term world stability demands it, there is no easy way out and no good reason to further strengthen and embolden the authoritarian camp. And equally important are the people of Ukraine who deserve a fair shot at the promise they were more or less given when the Soviet Union collapsed: to be a free, safe and prosperous democratic nation in Europe. To answer Yaroslava Antipina: the world is still here, trying hard to give Ukraine its best."
https://pieterdorsman.substack.com/p/its-still-on-the-war
38. Food for thought. Saylor on BTC: Its Energy & a System.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=B1PI7BCjopk
39. This is too bad but goes to show unit economics matter and over-scaling much too early kills companies.
Realistic Idealism: The Way to Progress
Humans are extreme: this is a fact. Good ideas are taken to its excess and become bad. Take water. We need it to live and thrive. But drink too much and it becomes toxic.
This is like many of the great movements, ideas and trends we see. Take two geopolitical trains of thought.
Idealism and Values: as exemplified by Western Europe and the rise of Woke, ESG (Environmental Sustainable Governance), the Environmental movement itself, the use of Diplomacy and Anti-war movements. Each value at core is an incredibly worthy goal for human civilization. Morals are important for a well functioning society.
2. Realism, Realpolitik & Pragmatism: as exemplified by the ossified John Mearsheimer & Russia/Chinese geopolitical moves in the last 20 years. This is a world of influence & power. You have no friends, you only have interests not allies. You look at the world in a very cold blooded and in many cases, a very effective lens.
Both do make sense. But due to the extreme edges these approaches have been pushed to, they both no longer seem to work nor make any sense to me. The idealism of Germany and most of Western Europe is what has gotten them into the mess they are in now. Being energy dependent on Russia, a country with hostile intentions, interests and values contrary to theirs. The EU & many of the NATO countries also under-invested on the military defense side too. Now due to the wake-up call of the horrible Russian invasion of Ukraine, they are scrambling to figure out a way out, way behind in the game. Idealism is great but when it meets the laws of physics and reality, idealism fails.
Yet, there is something uninspiring about the ideas of realpolitik. Values and ideals are what most people can support and fight for. Fighting for pure naked greed and self interest just makes you a mercenary. Mercenaries may be professionals but they are usually unwilling to die for a cause. Realism tends to ignore the people and values/culture pieces of humans. And it easily turns into cynicism. Very hard to motivate people to support or die for these motivations.
Most people don’t just want to fight for money or to ensure that we have cheap oil as important as both are. People are willing to fight for a true cause that is larger than themselves versus just pure self-interest. This is why we see the phenomenon of foreign ex-soldiers showing up and volunteering to fight in the Greek War of Independence in the 1820s, or the Spanish Civil War in the 1930s against the fascists and in 2022 again, joining Ukraine’s army to fight against the Russian fascists.
This is why for my life and business, I prefer the blended approach as an investor and operator. What I call realistic Idealism. I want to support and invest in mission oriented founders and companies. Ones that are creating a “vision worth fighting for.” My brilliant investor friend Jim Scheinman has written:
“We want to hear what they are planning to bring into the world that is worth all the time, effort and money required for success. We are also listening carefully if the founders are passionate about this vision. If they don’t have the passion, then they will likely give up when the going gets tough. And, the going gets tough most of the time with startups.”
Yet this needs to be combined with being pragmatic and realistic on what can be done and when. Basically having a clear plan and willingness to execute. As Thomas Edison was reported to have said:“Vision without execution is hallucination”. This is far too common in startup land. How many visionary founders have turned out to be great fundraisers but terrible managers and operators who end up destroying the business? This is actually quite endemic.
Sadly, that is where most of the liberal West (US, Canada & Western Europe) is right now, far too much on the Idealistic side. To the point that it has become ineffective or even immoral. As I paraphrase the smart folks at Doomberg, in government we have “policies driven by platitudes not physics.” This is because we have had way too much comfort and prosperity over the last 20-30 years.
We can still turn it around if we can become more serious. But sadly this may require more pain and suffering around the world before we truly wake up. The laws of physics usually catch up to us. We probably could do with a bit more realism in our way forward in Western societies.