Massively Relevant Lessons from a Cowboy’s Life
As my readers have noticed already, I’ve taken so many learnings from the “Yellowstone” tv series. There is this scene where an old cowboy is trying to educate a new guy into “the life”.
“It’s the most glorious work that you can do that no one ever sees. It takes every inch of you. You are going to risk your life, your horse’s life. And no one knows if you won or you lost. It’s art without an audience till the day you die. Then after you’re dead, you don’t have an audience either. You’re just gone. You’ve got to want this life. You’ve gotta want it, all the way to your bones. And if you don’t, it will be absolute hell on earth.”
Sounds alot like entrepreneurial/ startup life doesn’t it? In fact, it sounds like almost any career outside of media and Hollywood. Hard, thankless most of the time and only personally meaningful.
You have to really want it. You have to go all in and commit if you want to be good at it. This is the universal law of success. Do things well even when no one is looking. Because you will know. It’s in the details and the nuances. You have to treat it like a craft. The two steps forward and one step back. But never relenting and always pushing. Learning along the way.
That’s how you get from being an amateur to becoming a professional. And then from a professional, to the sublime heights of an artist at the top of their game.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads April 2nd, 2023
“The way to get started is to quit talking and begin doing.” -Walt Disney
This is a worthwhile discussion on the role of AI in global competition.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-kJSUlC2MQM
2. Not sure what I think about this. Extreme other side of complacent & coddling weak management.
"Elon Musk is a cruel business leader who has been looking for someone who is harsher than him to take over Twitter, and I believe he found a person who is a hardcore version of himself.
His name is Steve Davis, and he is a brutal, brilliant entrepreneur who values money before anything. He is a relentless man whose main goal is to make money, and he will destroy anyone or anything that stands between him and his goal. Davis will do whatever it takes to get ahead, including exploiting workers."
3. "And speaking of the historic moments, Gordon Moore, member of the Traitorous Eight, co-founder of Intel, and most famously, the formulator of Moore’s Law, just passed away. So there is a very real sense of a generation shift in the air in tech at the moment. Gordon Moore is gone, just a couple weeks after a somewhat less venerable institution, the Silicon Valley Bank, exited the stage. But at the same time, there are interesting signs of genuine renewal, and the launch of Atomic Semi feels like one of them.
It is news to a lot of people, but there hasn’t been much actual silicon manufacturing in Silicon Valley for decades. The fabs mostly moved to Asia, and the few significant manufacturing facilities left in the US are not actually in Silicon Valley.
While there is of course a ton of design work and specialized laboratory work that happens on the campuses of Intel, AMD, and other chip majors and minors in the region (mostly concentrated around the southern tip of Silicon Valley), actually making the chips has been a business for other geographies."
https://studio.ribbonfarm.com/p/silicon-valley-generation-shift
4. "Awards are fun and exciting.
Awards are not success.
Startup success is only bestowed by customers — not by mentors, investors or media. Customers decide where to spend their budget and whether or not a product is useful. The market decides, not the media.
Accept startup awards with a smile and stay focused on the customer."
https://davidcummings.org/2023/03/25/startup-awards-dont-equal-success/
5. "I'm writing this mostly as a warning. I know a lot of indie founders are hopeful that AI is the next big platform that will produce the next wave of bootstrapped startups (similar to the iOS store, Shopify store, etc).
I believe there will be opportunities for established bootstrapped startups, who already have a strong customer base, to incorporate AI into their products.
And everyone can benefit from AI-assisted coding, problem-solving, and outline writing.
But it seems, with AI, I think most of the upside will go to big companies (especially to OpenAI), not new AI-driven startups."
https://justinjackson.ca/chatgpt-business
6. "I spent eight years building my last company. And I made a lot of mistakes.
One key mistake I made was not aligning my work with a purpose I cared about. Another was approaching the work with a finish line in mind.
I hold ambition quite differently now."
https://www.mattmunson.me/rethinking-ambition/
7. Net net: we are behind in hypersonic weapons and really have alot of work to do to catch up.
8. Not just a bit curious about this event.
"The Big Sandy Shoot, “the largest machine-gun shoot in the world . . . a uniquely American event,” is held two weekends a year, in March and October, outside Wikieup, Arizona, a remote census-designated place halfway between Vegas and Phoenix on the edge of the Mojave Desert. Shooters pay $325 for a spot on the firing line; observers who aren’t local pay thirty-five dollars at the gate.
Shooters, staff, and observers come here from all over the world. At the fall shoot, I talked with folks from Belgium, Russia, Mexico, the UK, and Australia, to name just a few countries, and nearly every part of America. Many have come for decades; at least one guy I talked to had been to every single event over the shoot’s thirty-five-year history.
I was glad to have come to this weird, beautiful, fucked-up weekend in America. And I was glad to leave, even if I never got to see the guy shoot the machine gun off the back of the disco boat or ask him why. I don’t know that there’s a satisfying answer to that question anyhow, except for “Because we can.”
Because America. Because men. Because freedom. Because it feels better than anger. Because fun. Because obsession. Because history. Because friendship. Because family. Because batshittery. Because joy."
https://www.esquire.com/news-politics/a43271740/big-sandy-machine-guns/
9. This is a good discussion on making non-consensus investments as VC.
Looking back: All my best investments were initially disregarded by most investors.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0nTlf-d9yzE&t=2s
10. "Emerging markets are one area that could provide investors with a wide variety of opportunities that are relatively, but not exclusively, less correlated with developed markets."
https://www.thelykeion.com/finding-relative-value-in-emerging-markets
11. "As millions of Americans stream “Sex and the City” and other old sitcoms, warm nostalgia has been accompanied by a cold dose of skepticism about the characters’ apartments and houses.
Were they paying far beyond their means, or are we judging with a 2020s perspective?
The Hustle analyzed the salaries and living situations of several famous sitcom characters over the past few decades as a lens on today’s housing market."
https://thehustle.co/what-old-sitcoms-reveal-about-americas-rising-cost-of-housing/
12. "So in summation this is why I have given the Ukrainians the clear benefit of the doubt. The Ukrainians, who have the best intelligence, have decided to fight for Bakhmut. They have had a admirable track record in this war of making the right strategic call, and they have articulated a clear strategic vision of what they are trying to accomplish.
The same goes for Ukrainian commanders. Their track record is such that it would unusual that they all of a sudden became stupid. Meanwhile, it is the Russian attacks on Bakhmut were the runs that ran out of steam before Ukrainian forces failed, indeed the Russians are now stuck in a terrible position with lots of exposed bulges in their lines.
If the Ukrainians had withdrawn, they would have given this depleted, exhausted force to claim a political victory and at the same time dig-in and rest for a coming Ukrainian counteroffensive."
https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-21-a-defense-of-the
13. "Of course, some of the American politicians who are providing the political impetus for TSMC to move production to the U.S. may not be so enamored of the Canada solution; they’re hoping that TSMC’s investments will create jobs for Americans, after all, not for Canadians.
But the central imperative of national security and supply chain security would be fully satisfied by TSMC fabs in Canada. And if American politicians really want to boost local industry, they should consider reforming their onerous permitting processes, opening up their country to skilled immigration, and not using industrial policy as a vehicle for giveaways to local nonprofits, care industries, and domestic metal producers.
So if I were TSMC or Samsung, I would be taking a look at Canada as a place to diversify into. And if I were the government of Canada, I would think about bolstering these natural advantages with a vigorous industrial policy to cultivate foreign investment — and, eventually, domestic investment — in the chip fab industry.
So far, Canada has mostly ignored this possibility, but if there was any moment to try to move into semiconductor manufacturing, that moment is now."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/why-not-put-tsmc-and-samsung-fabs
14. One more important front in the new Cold War.
“When we talk about U.S.-China tech competition, when we talk about espionage and the capture of data, submarine cables are involved in every aspect of those rising geopolitical tensions,” Sherman said."
https://www.reuters.com/investigates/special-report/us-china-tech-cables/
15. "Corporations are responding to the housing crisis on their own since in many regions market and political forces seem incapable of getting housing built. Binyamin Appelbaum writes about the trend of corporations building housing for their workers, a move that reminds him of the old company towns of the 1800s."
https://www.workfutures.io/p/the-return-of-company-towns
16. Enjoyed this interview with Fitness Influencer Mike Thurston.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=V6Ci0ucV3qg
17. "He’s the world-famous singer of a dozen club anthems and a dozen more crooning, desirous ballads, but tonight the superstar is politely waiting at the door. Across eight studio albums, Usher is one of the defining artists of the ’90s and the aughts. His music is for house parties, clubs, breakups, grind trains, and affairs. From his sophomore album, My Way, on, he has become almost synonymous with a good lay or a good time.
He performed at both of Obama’s inauguration concerts and introduced the world to a shy Canadian teen named Justin Bieber. But in the 2010s his output mellowed, and he seemed to disappear from the spotlight. At least before he found himself again, here, in Sin City.
You see, Usher believes in Las Vegas, like someone who saw the glamorous first hour of Casino but not the subsequent stressful two hours of Casino. For Usher, Vegas is a place of renewal, a place of rebirth. The healing powers of Vegas have baptized him and made him anew. “Las Vegas is very important because it actually speaks to my career, to be in a place where I can dream, where I can incubate ideas,” he says. “A place where I can be creative.” Onstage, that means that he’s putting on the biggest, most brazen show of his life.
Offstage, nothing is off-limits: He’s riding his Vegas high and wants to pursue brand collaborations, restaurants, fashion, jewelry, skin care, makeup. Me, dumb, thinks it’s depressing to make every part of yourself consumable. Usher, smart, doesn’t see it that way. “You can do so much!” he says optimistically. “The question is: Is it aspirational? That’s the thing.”
https://www.gq.com/story/gq-hype-usher
18. "Six months on again none of these measures have advanced Russia’s cause one whit. Ukraine has been badly hurt but its relative military position is improving as more Western supplies come in (albeit not as fast as it would like). Putin’s strategic choices have narrowed. Perhaps he will persevere in a Micawberish sort of way, hoping that something will turn up. The arguments against conceding that this venture has been disastrous remain profound and there is no evidence that his position in the Kremlin is under threat.
Yet he and his generals must have some misgivings about the consequences of a successful Ukrainian offensive with so little to show for their own. The best bet is that he will insist that his generals continue on their current course, perhaps taking even more risks to get a victory of some sort.
I would still, however, not be wholly surprised if at some point he put in an anxious call to his friend XI Jinping to ask about how he is getting on with his peace initiative."
https://samf.substack.com/p/still-bakhmut
19. "But while home usage of 3D printers has not taken off, stealthily the technology has been inveigling its way into our lives in other ways. Almost all – 99% plus – custom hearing aids are now 3D printed in acrylic resin, and have been for years.
Additive manufacturing is widely used in dentistry: teeth aligners, which are increasingly taking the place of traditional wire braces, would be almost impossible without 3D printing. Adidas and Nike use the technology in their shoes. There are 3D-printed parts on all new aircraft and in a growing number of cars.
We’ve been here before, of course: 3D printing will save the world! So why believe it now? There is growing evidence that the hype, this time round, might not be overstated. Not all of these developments will touch our lives immediately. Nasa and all space-exploration companies already use additive processes to make parts for their rockets.
But they are also investigating the challenges that will arise once they land on the Moon or Mars. They will not be able to carry all the resources with them, so they have to find methods for construction and providing food: perhaps using the directed energy from the sun and the materials they will find on the ground. Nasa funds one project that is looking into recycling the urine, faeces and breath of astronauts on long journeys to make food and plastics for 3D printing."
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/mar/12/3d-printing-the-new-technology-comes-into-its-own
20. I do like this important discussion on how the world is getting harder.
So the best people need to get tougher themselves. Worth listening to.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x7nvM0n7pWc
21. This is such a great fount of wisdom and real practical framework to deal with the amount of crazy in the world now.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wmiRTbIcLrA
22. This is a very cold view of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Very different from the narrative being pushed right now in the USA.
I am pro-Ukraine but geopolitically this is important to understand the situation in Europe.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jYT75nQE4uI&t=4366s
23. This is a wake up call for all Americans by a former US military officer.
We are at war so we better prepare. Recommend the books as well.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z-LL_zml8sg
24. "Obtaining rich proprietary training datasets will be the key challenge for startups looking to create AI models for industry verticals. Crowdsourcing this data from the professionals who work in these industries may be an excellent approach to solve this problem.
Moreover, crowdsourcing should create a flywheel: as users contribute data to the model, the model gets smarter and more capable, which draws in the next set of users, who provide the next set of data. This data network effect should create a strong moat around the business.
That said, potential risks or downsides related to the give-to-get model, such as data quality, privacy, and intellectual property concerns, must be addressed proactively by startups in order to ensure the long-term success of their AI models."
https://sacks.substack.com/p/the-give-to-get-model-for-ai-startups
25. "His fan base lived all over the English-speaking world, and it seemed to defy race, class, and religion. Tate appealed to the rural American pro-gun constituencies and to the anti-vaxx, anti-mask communities; he appealed to schoolboys in Sydney and working-class immigrants in the U.K., to young rideshare drivers and to jet-setting tech bros.
Tate’s saturation was so complete that he reached into the blue villages of New York City, where many boys in their bedrooms found his rude and ruthless evisceration of every sacred liberal value hilarious. Feminism, environmentalism, gluten intolerance, literature, Harry Styles, Lil Nas X — Tate assaulted all of these with pejoratives the boys themselves knew not to use.
Outside of school, they took pictures posing like him, their fingers laced together with their index fingers pointed like steeples; they made machete jokes in the group thread and listened to Tate in the gym; in private, they said, “He’s my guy. I love him. He’s so smart; he’s so relevant.” But when girls were around, the boys knew to keep quiet. Girls hate Tate."
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/andrew-tate-jail-investigation.html
26. Love to see this. Solo GPs growing in Europe. It's a good thing although this also shows how the EU lags tech trends in USA by a few years.
https://sifted.eu/articles/europe-first-female-solo-gp-fund-news/
27. "U.S. early-stage hardware startups are seriously disadvantaged by a persistent lack of financing. Meanwhile, China has been pouring money into Chinese—as well as U.S. and European—tech startups.
Recognizing this problem, Congress authorized the U.S. Department of Defense to spend $75 million to invest in dual-use hardware startups. However, the Pentagon has proven reticent to embrace a venture capital–style approach, even though research has demonstrated it is optimal for driving innovation."
https://www.rand.org/blog/2023/03/venture-capital-gives-america-a-strategic-edge-in-the.html
28. Excellent discussion on creativity in the age of AI.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BfvPVmcBd7Q
29. This is a masterclass for those who love businesses, dissecting them and creating them.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6IKyi9gfxqw
30. Wowza! That’s alot of moolah.
https://www.dmarge.com/unidentified-multibillionaire-tax-payment
31. There is a great discussion on tech and AI here. Well worth listening to. AI is the next great platform.
Revenge is a Dish Best Served Cold?: Living Well is Winning
Anyone in business or life, who is trying to do anything big or meaningful, will always end up having scores to settle. With a ledger to track and to keep clean. People who have done wrong, cheated or lied to us with malicious intent. I’ve certainly run into many of these people in Silicon Valley. My ledger is very long.
In fact, if I’m honest, they are the motivation and drive to do more, get more money, to drive more influence to prove them wrong. And also get into a better position to get back at them. Or perhaps a stronger position to ensure they never hurt you or your interests again. To hit and hurt them back someway or somehow.
But after 2 decades of this, I’m starting to realize this is just not sustainable at all. And in fact, it’s completely unhealthy. You can only hate so much. Rage gets you only so far. It burns you out. Too much tension is just plain unhealthy for you. It simmers beneath, and grinds and chips away at your soul.
The best way forward is not necessarily forgiveness. I am not that mature or enlightened yet. But I’m focusing on living the best life you possibly can. Doing all the things I’ve wanted to do. Pushing myself and Living the grand adventures I always dreamed about. Going all out because the only person you are accountable to is yourself and your family.
Take your leash off. Move single-mindedly to make a life so awesome you forget these awful people. Who will be little blips and ghosts in your memory. Just leave them in the rear view mirror.
The best revenge is treating them like the non entities that they are. Maybe that’s good enough for now.
Ruthlessness Wins: Extreme Behavior in Highly Competitive Markets
Beth Dutton is one of the most brilliant and machiavellian characters in the excellent Yellowstone television show.
One of things she said was illuminating:
“I’ll do anything to hurt our enemies. If I hurt others, so be it.
There is no such thing, not in the kingdom. There is no morality here. There is “keep the kingdom or you lose the kingdom.”
It’s a very zero sum view. Sadly many people think and operate this way these days. They approach life with a cold ruthlessness. I’d even say sociopathism. Is it surprising that we have so many sociopathic people in senior ranks in government, business and global organizations like the UN, EU, CCP or World Bank?
I think as the tech industry has become more important, mainstream and larger, the previous cooperative, “pay it forward” mentality that I loved is slowly disappearing. I’m observing a much more transactional and win-lose mentality coming in.
I also think this is also due to the much more Darwinian environment that the USA is in now. Hard times are here. It’s the new “Hunger Games” in the post Covid & post-Zero Interest Rate world, so people are in survival mode. And thus, more willing to do more ruthless things to survive. You already see this in places like New York City, or at a larger level: India, China, Nigeria and many of the larger emerging markets. Places full of smart, ambitious people struggling to survive. Obviously these are rank generalizations but people tend to lie, steal and cheat in these environments. It’s whatever it takes.
I don’t like it but it’s reality. And we do what we need to do to survive and win. If your opponent has no morals and follows no rules, it’s much harder to beat them.
It goes against my nature, having been raised in kinder, gentler Canada. Something that I think has not served me well here in the USA. It’s how I had been outmaneuvered by opponents internal and external to the organizations I worked for in the past. People there are willing to do whatever it takes to win. But I’ve learned this the hard way as normal: from personal experience and a lot of pain.
You still need a code and mine follows that of the US Marines. “No better friend, No worse enemy.”
I act with honor and treat my friends and allies well. I keep my word and give people the benefit of the doubt. But for my enemies & competitors, there are no rules. I’ll do everything and anything within the bounds of law to win. Once they are shown to be my enemies, I’ll treat it as a zero sum game just like them. If they win, they are taking money, resources and food from my family. The world is harsh, so you have to be too. This is the new world we are in, whether we like it or not.
Besides, as the Grand Inquisitor character said in the Anakin TV series: “Revenge does wonders for the will to live, doesn’t it?” ;)
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads March 26th, 2023
“I get up in the morning looking for an adventure.”--George Foreman
"Sure, getting yourself a second (or third, or in my case this year, a fourth) passport will require some kind of time and effort commitment on your part. But in my opinion, it’s always time and effort well spent.
In the time of the Mongols, you needed to be one of the born elites to achieve a level of travel freedom only a few possessed. Sure, getting yourself a second (or third, or in my case this year, a fourth) passport that gives you more elite status will require some kind of time and effort commitment on your part. But in my opinion, it’s time and effort always worth spending."
https://abundantia.substack.com/p/the-most-valuable-item-on-earth
2. "History definitely doesn’t support Balaji’s assertion that hyperinflation happens with lightning speed. José Luis Saboin-Garcia, who studied episodes of hyperinflation in a large number of countries, found that they all go through a period of at least a year during which inflation is above 50% but not yet above 500%.
In other words, Balaji is not just betting on a U.S. hyperinflation; he’s betting that thanks to digitization, a U.S. hyperinflation would happen faster than any hyperinflation has ever happened in any country in recorded history.
But anyway, let’s take a look at why Balaji thinks the dollar will crash in the very near future, and why that’s extremely unlikely to happen.
Basically, he thinks that hyperinflation will come as a result of a massive failure of U.S. banks.
The idea is that the Fed’s interest rate hikes have made essentially all U.S. banks insolvent, by lowering the values of their bond portfolios. This, he believes, will cause depositors to flee the banks for the safety of Bitcoin."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/in-which-balaji-gives-away-at-least
3. "A corollary: Making a decision and moving forward is often more effective than extended deliberation about the decision. Deliberation assumes we know how to reason about the future, but even experts aren’t good at that. Making decisions and gaining experience is how to find the right answers, if the organization is introspective enough to also face the truth when it turns out the original strategy is incorrect."
https://longform.asmartbear.com/predict-the-future
4. "China has already concluded that humans should be kept out of the battlefield as much as possible. It’s a compelling approach. Everyone is a conscript. Even the lowly fisherman in a tiny boat technically now comes under the rubric of the Chinese Navy. But, few will be asked to fight. Instead, they are replacing humans with code.
The next war for China is a digital operation run by highly responsive and obedient self-replicating robotics, informed by the best data sets and AI that exists anywhere in the world today. Humans won’t even be needed for decision-making. In conjunction with super-computing, AI is replacing Generals, especially as the warzone expands beyond a battlefield and across the entire supply chain.
What is the West doing? More weight is being placed on the most superhuman individuals in the military – Special Ops. There is a logic behind this. Special Ops Forces (SOF) have become the “easy button” because they have the military's best impact/expense ratio.
They are relatively inexpensive and punch far above their weight. But as SOF leaders themselves keep pointing out, they can only do their job if supported by the rest of the massive American/NATO military infrastructure. Yet, the West is still enamored of the idea that an individual with experience and judgment will win over automation and AI.
This is the tip of a more profound philosophical split between the
West and the East."
https://drpippa.substack.com/p/war-in-an-era-of-intelligent-machines
5. This is an excellent discussion on Ryan Reynolds and Bali's 1M dollar Bitcoin bet.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oQgsFh5lX_s
6. "Poland is not only building the strongest Armed Forces in Europe (after Ukraine), but it is also building the defense industry needed to sustain it. It is also diversifying the suppliers, increasing the speed of delivery, and reducing its dependency on the U.S.
The bottom line is that Poland is thinking, planning, and acting according to NATO’s late strategic concept. It is building military power to do – if needed – what the U.S. and NATO will not: i.e., fight alongside the Armed Forces of Ukrainian to stop a war that threatens European security and stability."
https://www.kyivpost.com/opinion/14676
7. A very sober discussion on the recent China-Russia Summit.
It's a fair view versus the hyperbole I see from so many other folks online. The Global South matters.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-6ha8BpI2vI
8. Balaji is a brilliant man and has been right on alot of stuff. He might be right here but not sure I agree with his timeline.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YWZCePHC80w
9. Jason nails it. This is why most VCs are in cognitive overload and hence not responsive.
https://twitter.com/jasonlk/status/1639261814516228096
10. This is a great episode and gives a good understanding of what’s happening with the macro economic environment.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ub9QcwSgbjc
11. "In our experience, founders have long evaluated VCs based on things like a firm’s brand, name recognition, or domain expertise in a given sector.
In a world of higher rates, we believe that founders should now also pay attention to a VC’s ability to actually manage their portfolio to success (converting TVPI to DPI) and employees should get smarter before accepting an offer from a given startup. This not only has an impact on the VC’s distributions, but importantly its real value to the founders and their employees.
Finally, for LPs allocating capital, factors like correlation and DPI should be increasingly top of mind, because running with the crowd may not be the safest strategy after all."
https://chamath.substack.com/p/advice-to-startup-founders-and-employees
12. "The hardest round to raise so far in 2023 is the Series B. Although, all the early & mid-stage rounds have fallen to levels not seen for 5-10 years."
https://tomtunguz.com/2023q1-venture-market/
13. This twitter character James Medlock is fascinating.
I lived in small S socialist country, its okay for the average Joe & provides a good living.
But it's not for those looking to go big. Still good interview below.
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/repost-interview-with-james-medlock
14. "Guns, bunkers, private islands, crypto, secession … connect the dots. The venture catastrophists now have a vested interest in the nation’s decline. They’ve invested too much in Doomsday not to root for it — maybe even catalyze it. Balaji has a million dollars on the line; Andreessen Horowitz has $8 billion.
Much of their catastrophizing is in response to elements of U.S. society that are legitimately broken.
The question is: What do we do about it? For too many, the answer is quit: Instead of fixing the Fed, start a different currency. Instead of healing our divides, split the nation in two. Instead of making this planet more habitable, colonize other planets or put a headset on that takes you to a meta (better) universe. But here’s the thing: We’re stuck here, and with each other.
Spoiler alert: No matter how many rough-cut gems you can shove up your ass or how plush your bunker, there is no escaping the fallout of our democracies failing. Because our democracies are largely capitalist and accept, if not idolize, people who aggregate the wealth of small nations. If shit gets real — I mean real — bunkers will likely become easy targets in the recalibration of society.
The previous sentence is a pedantic way of saying the best bet (by far) is to double down on a society that already has Netflix, Nespresso, and Girl Scouts. Citizenship is not just an obligation; it’s also a trade. In the case of America, the best trade is to invest in each other and what MLK called our “beloved community.” We need reformers, not quitters."
https://www.profgalloway.com/quitters/
15. "But there’s an alternative version of events being pieced together that is far more sinister — and convincing. It appears that these banks, especially Signature, were the victims of an opportunistic campaign to decapitate banks serving the crypto industry.
Not only was the bank run opportunistically exploited by regulators to shut down Signature, but it may even trace its origins to Choke Point 2.0. Did the Biden Administration actually instigate the now-global bank run as part of a grievance campaign against the crypto space? If so, this represents a colossal scandal, and one that the Biden administration must be made to answer for.
The preponderance of public evidence suggests that Silvergate and Signature didn’t commit suicide — they were executed."
https://www.piratewires.com/p/2023-banking-crisis
16. "That division isn’t helping another big problem for VC: its reputation. It wasn’t stellar headed into this year, when some of the perils of throwing too much money at startups—with too little scrutiny—became apparent in the blowups of failed crypto exchange FTX and e-commerce startup Fast. But last week has done far more serious damage to its image."
https://www.theinformation.com/articles/venture-capitalists-made-a-big-mess-of-svb
17. I always learn stuff from listening to Zeihan. Agree with 80% of what he says. Pay attention to demographics, supply chains and energy & resource flows.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I9zU4cBCf1U
18. "One of America’s only airplane repo men, he’s spent more than 2 decades flying all over the world on behalf of banks, reclaiming aircraft from broke businessmen, crumbling corporations, and drug lords."
https://thehustle.co/airplane-repossession/
19. "The other difference in the coming offensives is the growing asymmetry in the quality of equipment. The Ukrainians, with the infusion of western aid, have improved the quality of their tanks and other vehicles. The Russians, having lost much of their best kit in the first year of the war, are turning to much older tanks and armoured vehicles drawn from Cold War stores. This will have an impact on the battlefield, and not just because of the age and technological disparity in vehicles.
Imagine you are the tank crew of an old Russian tank, that is 3-4 times as old as you are. And, imagine then you have been briefed that you will be coming up against the latest Western tanks. Regardless of what the ludicrous Russian propaganda tells us, this will have a significant impact on Russian morale."
https://mickryan.substack.com/p/the-coming-ukrainian-offensives
20. "AI is supercharging growth and revenue, as consumers are eager to pay for AI at the application layer for products they already love. The common narrative right now is that AI value will accrue to OpenAI and big tech, but the less spoken narrative is that early to mid-stage startups applications are already seeing growth."
https://chapterone.substack.com/p/getting-hit-by-the-ai-lucky-truck
21. "From here, I have no doubt Japan’s VC and start-up ecosystem will continue to evolve at an accelerating rate. Nothing succeeds like success, and the reality of both the technocratic elite and the Prime Minister’s office now fully aligned on an industrial policy to support and foster Start-up Nation Japan is poised to keep momentum going.
The primary risk, in my view, could be the government doing too much: a key reason for why the venture capital model is successful is because it encourages failure. For every unicorn you get, say, 1,000 failures. the model works because it creates a market place where only the best survive. Japans capitalism is the worlds undisputed champion of protecting against failure.
The good news is that the rapid growth in both fiduciary and corporate VCs should ensure against “zombie start-ups” becoming a hallmark of ‘new capitalism’."
https://japanoptimist.substack.com/p/japan-reality-check-5-are-start-ups
22. "I believe that this wave of technology will augment our creativity as oppose to replace it. However, the text and image models are improving so fast that we can’t rule out AI completely winning the creative race. At least based on technical ability, speed and volume.
But that is why the Van Gogh story is so relevant. “The Starry Night” is a reminder of what creative work — with or without the assistance of technology — is worth being made. And worth us caring about.
In the face of ever-improving generative AI, the only thing I know for sure is that each person will be able to cultivate one competitive edge: yourself. You need to express yourself more. Your life more.
Your quirks more. Your humor more. Your filter more.
Translate your own experience into creative work. Because if you are only expressing what can be “seen”, technology has it covered. But what can be “felt”? That is still uniquely ours."
https://trungphan.substack.com/p/the-camera-van-gogh-and-the-starry
23. It's a great convo today on the government war on crypto.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=60UN8RVkhyw
24. "We’re back in a phase where alpha seems to be coming from technical innovation (crypto, climate, biology, AI) and not just business model application (XYZ but a marketplace!). It’s not just that it takes time to understand these technologies but each of them bring their own new networks and talent to the forefront.
You have to be *in* these networks to see the best early stage opportunity, not just wait for intros to land in your inbox."
https://hunterwalk.medium.com/death-of-the-generalist-seed-vc-1e1dc8bb490e
The Contractor & the Death of Loyalty: We Are All Him
“The Contractor” is a film about a Special forces operator who gets discharged after many years of distinguished, honorable service. He struggles to find his way and support his family after the military, so he joins a secretive Private Military Company otherwise known as a PMC.
His new boss said something that really struck me:
“We gave them our minds, our bodies, and our spirit and they chewed us up and spit us out. Left us with fear, rage, uncertainty, a sense of abandonment, betrayal and finally self loathing and guilt. As if everything that happened was our own goddamn fault.”
This is an extreme case and situation, especially for military men who have served and given as much as they have for their country. And this is why we honor them. But for us civilians we sometimes feel this to some extent too. Especially when we work for someone else. Not everyone is fortunate, smart or lucky enough to discover entrepreneurship early in our life.
How many of us have given all of our time, energy and soul for a company? We were loyal. Foolishly, loyal I might add. And then we find ourselves discarded when we weren’t useful or there were tough times in the business.
How many people do you know who worked for decades at a company or at minimum put their heart and soul into a place. Only to be tossed away like garbage, treated worse than trash. I know plenty. Heck, I’m one of them.
This is a fact of life in the market economy. It’s easy to become bitter and angry after what you feel you sacrificed for them.
But I’ve come to think about this in a different way. You’ve learned new important skills that you can stack on your previous knowledge, you built an incredible new network of people you can do business with in the future. And maybe most important if you are good at what you do, you build a good rep.
As they say:
“Our reputation is the only commodity we got left in this game.”
I think everyone needs to experience this feeling of disillusionment and betrayal. You learn a harsh lesson about the world. It’s the only way you can learn about yourself, to discover your mission. It’s the only way you truly understand the importance of becoming entrepreneurial. The freedom and control of the future you can build through this path.
And for those who are still working for someone else, I’ll leave you with some great advice from an old friend and boss. “Make Love, but Don’t Fall in Love”. The point: do your job well but don’t get too attached.
And most importantly, make sure you are building your side hustles and other income streams separately. You owe them nothing except a job well done. But you also owe your future self this. Become an owner. I can tell you this: I’m never ever working for anyone again. I’m done with the salaryman life & mindset. It’s the road to nowhere.
So I will end with a quote from the movie:
“Cash is real. It’s okay to cash in. It’s pure Darwin out here. We’re trained to be ruthlessly adaptable. Use it. We’re all just mercenaries in the end.”
Life is Unfair: Get Over It
I do remember all the times when things didn’t go my way or when I’m treated badly or unfairly. I’d get angry and curse the world and well, everything.
As I’ve gotten older and hopefully wiser, I’ve slowly realized how stupid this is. Blaming other people, other things, the world or the situation is futile. And a complete waste of energy.
Shake it off. Expect nothing from anyone. Louis L'amour wrote in one of my favorite Westerns “Flint”:
“Don’t trust anyone, even me. To trust is a weakness. It ain’t necessarily that folks are bad, but they are weak and afraid. Be your own man. Go your own way.”
The way forward is understanding that you can’t control what other people do to you, but you can control how you react. Hopefully with less anger and rage than I do.
I recall a great quote from the patriarch, John Dutton of the tv series Yellowstone:
“Let me tell you what fair means. Fair means one side got exactly what they wanted in a way the other side can’t complain about. There is no such thing as fair.”
The sooner one realizes this, the better they can move forward with dealing with all the hard things life inevitably throws at you.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads March 19th, 2023
“Adventure is not outside man; it is within.”--George Eliot
"So the most helpful clues to understanding Silicon Valley today may come from its favorite ancient philosophy: Stoicism.
An ancient Greek school of thought, Stoicism argued that the only real treasures in life were inner virtues, like self-mastery and courage. The Stoics offered tactics to endure pain and pleasure without complaint."
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/03/26/style/silicon-valley-stoics.html
2. This is a masterclass on coaching and I learned a lot, especially as someone who has Anger management issues. Mochary is one of the best in Silicon Valley.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JVkiQY8KkOQ
3. This is a very optimistic view of the USA vis a vis Russia and China. I hope he is right but we cannot afford to be complacent.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpU5DKR2BBs
4. Interview with VC Mark Sister on the SVB mess.
5. This is where the guys shine: discussing the tech industry and the SVB mess.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CEee7dAk25c
6. "Although collapse is by no means a foregone conclusion for the Eurozone, the inability to address its deep system problems raises serious concerns. In the face of growing political complexity within the Eurozone, leaders in both Europe and the United States must recognize the inherent fragility of the currency union and work together to help promote economic and financial stability.
If the Eurozone is to survive, its member states must be willing to make mutual sacrifices for the collective good. Ultimately, just as the creation of the Eurozone is rooted in European politics so shall its survival rest upon the future of European politics."
https://shatterpointsgeopolitics.substack.com/p/shatterpoints-addendum-hidden-fractures
7. "The immediate next steps are to have two banking relationships and a strategy to have deposits over the FDIC $250,000 amount either insured across multiple banks and/or in ultra short term government T-bills. Bank failures are extremely rare, but with a little work, the tools and systems are already available to minimize any potential exposure."
https://davidcummings.org/2023/03/11/bank-hygiene-for-startups
8. I'm gonna be there!
https://www.timeout.com/tokyo/things-to-do/meguro-river-sakura-festival
9. "The decision to back Ukraine is finally rebooting some elements of the defense–industrial base and an attendant healthy manufacturing workforce. This is essential for deterring China. But it will not be enough if the White House, Congress, military leaders, and the business community fail to seize this moment together and prepare the nation."
10. I really like this newsletter and sorry I missed the Thesis Festival.
https://www.jasonshen.com/143/?ref=jason-shen-cultivating-resilience-newsletter
11. Well said.
"To be honest - I think the real lesson is not about FDIC insurance, it’s about risk and black swans.
This is a black swan event.
But I’ll be damned if I haven’t been seeing a lot of these black swans lately.
Once in a hundred year virus causes a global pandemic
The global reserve currency hits the highest inflation in 40 years
Invincible monopoly tech stocks (FB, Amazon, etc.) drop more than 40%+
FTX turns out to be a big fat scam
The past year has felt like the Flight of the Black Swans.
They migrated to my neighborhood, and it turns out, black swans sure do like shitting directly onto my shoulder.
So beware.
It’s black swan season."
https://shaan.beehiiv.com/p/just-happened
12. "The West can ignore these lessons at their own peril or use them to transform existing capabilities into future war-winning advantages.
The danger of dominant military organizations is that, short of lessons learned in the unforgiving crucible of combat, they tend to fall back on comfortable assumptions and ignore any signals of change that contradict their most-cherished strategic beliefs. We can do worse than to listen and learn from the incredible innovation happening in the Ukraine."
13. I love this guy. For anyone wanting to be better, watch this. How to be independent and self sovereign.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3A1t2vKOPZQ
14. "The threat from PRC nationals legally entering the US in order to engage in espionage activities is voluminously documented. The costs of failing to deal with this threat for decades have already been significant. Addressing this issue decisively and swiftly is well within the ability of each US administration. All that is lacking is the will to do so."
https://patrickfox.substack.com/p/lets-fck-with-xi-part-1
15. "Today, stablecoins solve a very real pain point in the crypto capital markets. They may not totally line up with the core tenets of crypto — namely, they are not decentralised whatsoever — but the point of stablecoins is not to create a decentralised product where it isn’t needed. Instead, they are simply intended to provide a fiat tokenisation service the banks refuse to offer."
https://medium.com/entrepreneur-s-handbook/dust-on-crust-300d4b5cf3ec
16. "It will feel like chaos at times. But remember that human societies always gravitate towards order. Chaos in this sense doesn’t need to be a pit of despair. Instead, it’s a ladder of opportunity.Don’t avoid or ignore what’s happening. Pay attention, learn from it, and focus on where order is beginning to reestablish itself. Treat the chaos as an opportunity. Position yourself ahead of the herd."
https://www.thesovereignindividualweekly.com/p/chaos-ladder
17. "Conclusion: Put this all together:
1) you should have multiple bank accounts as mentioned many times - one should be crypto only, period, full stop for all your CEX transactions,
2) you should move any major money to a large “too big to fail firm”especially if you run a small business,
3) it is best to take excess money and do either T-bills or crypto. This is more art than science.
The middle will get crushed since people will sell their stocks/401Ks to try and pay their mortgage as layoffs ramp up and 4) watch the unemployment rate.
The Fed has already said they are fine with up to about 4.6% and we’re at 3.6%. This gives you a rough guideline on when they would get concerned (around 5%).
In case it isn’t clear, the goal is to absolutely crush anyone in the middle. If you’re average joe buying boring stocks, you’re paying an expensive premium for them since the earnings yield on stocks is *lower* than the risk-free rate."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/silvergate-silicon-valley-and-signature
18. "I’ve observed many salespeople fail at executing their Qualification process because they failed to address the Baseline Frame.
Baseline Frame:
The prospect sees you as Low Status and you need to earn the right for them to follow your sales process.
Whether this is objectively true or not doesn’t matter.
It’s what the prospect believes.. therefore it is something you need to address *before* you can proceed to influence them."
https://bowtiedsalesguy.substack.com/p/give-a-little-to-get-a-lot
19. Codie is the best. So much to learn here.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6NNoDmHd-h8
20. "SVB, he said, was the “most generous” of the tech lenders because the loans helped fuel its broader banking business.
“They were the easiest money for an unprofitable, early-stage to mid-stage tech company,” said Abelson. “That is gone.”
Herndon of The Guild thinks less availability of venture debt could be good for tech startups. “It’s all fun and good until the time to pay back the loan occurs,” he said. “I think we all would be better off burning a lot less cash.”
https://www.theinformation.com/articles/svbs-failure-means-easiest-money-for-startups-is-gone
21. Chip wars! The most important yet forgotten industry.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9BvUpkwXCTg
22. "In this situation, if I were people in the VC/startup world, I would cool down any anti-government rhetoric. In happier times, libertarian outbursts were just part of the ecosystem of ideas that kept Silicon Valley and the U.S. government at arms length, allowing their symbiotic relationship to persist.
Today, after VCs loudly and successfully demanded government help for their portfolio companies, angry attempts to blame the government for the whole debacle will look like biting the hand that feeds, and will risk refocusing the techlash from big tech companies to VCs.
Beyond that, if I were people in the VC and startup world, I would think twice about expanding fintech startups’ role in the world of lending and debt, and their connections to the traditional banking sector.
When tech can boom and crash without taking down the banks, it’s free to innovate and build and take risks — and the government will have a strong incentive to leave it unmolested. That formula has worked well until now; it would be a shame to tear up a favorable arrangement."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/will-government-regulate-vcs-and
23. I like learning about these morning routines of successful folks.
https://yfsmagazine.com/2023/03/07/tech-founder-aliya-grig-shares-her-ultimate-morning-routine/
24. "As Alexandra Prokopenko puts it, “Russia is drifting toward a yuan currency zone, swapping its dollar dependence for reliance on the yuan.” Interestingly, as Russia turns to the yuan, China needs to accumulate greater and greater reserves in dollars. The global system develops into a hierarchical or tiered structure, with Russia entirely dependent on the yuan, without affecting the status of the dollar."
https://brunomacaes.substack.com/p/russia-is-drifting-towards-a-yuan
25. "TL;DR: As Silicon Valley Bank collapsed last week, $3B+ in funds flowed through the startup ecosystem to other startups, particularly neobanks Mercury and Brex. This catalyzing event gives Mercury the opportunity to aggregate startup demand, build the Booking. com of startup banking and create a new gathering place for technology startups and capital."
https://sacra.com/research/mercury-unbundling-silicon-valley-bank/
26. Good tips for building in public from someone who has done it well.
https://kp.substack.com/p/building-in-public-advice-for-newbies
27. Lesson that all technology is usually dual use.
https://www.cnn.com/2023/03/16/europe/china-made-drone-downed-eastern-ukraine-hnk-intl
28. This seems like NOT a best practice in doing lay offs.
"But this week, Zuckerberg announced plans to lay off another 10,000 workers and will do so in a piecemeal fashion over the next few months. People who work in recruitment will be immediately impacted, those in tech will find out in April, while business workers will learn their fate in late May. Additionally, Zuckerberg had been hinting at these layoffs for weeks, further extending the air of unease at the company.
It’s a bad way to do layoffs, which experts say should be minimal, compassionate, and clearly communicated. Doing so little by little will leave workers on edge and drive away people Meta wants to keep, and there’s also a good chance it will hurt the company from growing in the future."
https://www.vox.com/technology/2023/3/16/23642978/facebook-meta-layoffs-bad
29. "The financialization of tech was necessary, in some ways. As computing grew ubiquitous, especially with the rise of the smartphone, the market opportunity for technology products exploded. The moment called for financial rigor, planning, and — yes — VC funding. And financially minded people soon pushed the tech industry into an exceptional economic position.
But the tech sector, or at least parts of it, then trended into over-financialization. Instead of thinking about what problems they could solve for people, some companies looked only at growth and margins. They acted extractive, not like the startups at demo day.
Doordash, for instance, counted tips toward its minimum delivery worker payments, changing only after an uproar. And as this happened, VCs — not builders — became the tech industry’s most recognizable names."
https://www.bigtechnology.com/p/the-over-financialization-of-tech
30. Vox hit piece, but I understand. It's hard sometimes to take these 20-something supposed millionaires seriously.
But if the messages helps some young men better themselves, then I am all for it.
31. "Christian Angermayer is an optimist.
“We should all be happy,” he says with a smile on his face, but also a sense of concern. “We are living in the most amazing time in the history of humanity, but a lot of what we read out there in the media is very negative. Looking beyond headlines and at the facts, people should be happy, but they are not, and mental health is the biggest healthcare issue out there.
Hence, I have made it my mission to help shape and build a future for humanity that is much more positive, and progressive—a world that I want to live in.” By any metric, Christian Angermayer’s mission statement is a lofty one, but if anyone is capable of achieving it, he is.
Only 44 years old, the German entrepreneur and investor has already made significant contributions to the business world by not only starting three ‘unicorns’, but also being the lead investor in another four, and even two ‘decacorns’. He features on Forbes magazine’s World Billionaires list with a net worth of $1.2b.
As the founder of Apeiron Investment Group—his family office and private investment firm—he is renowned for investing in biotech, fintech, and blockchain sectors, particularly in cutting-edge companies that push boundaries—including challenging the limits of human life expectancy."
32. "In closing, an analyst asked whether particular verticals contributed to the growth rate decline. The answer: “No, it’s been broad-based.”
Mongo’s earnings call underscores the new budget constraints across buyers & paints a stark contrast to the massive growth in the previous year.
Software budgets aren’t yet showing signs of growing."
https://tomtunguz.com/mongo-earnings-2023q1/
33. "In the immediate aftermath, observers are doing what they do after a complex catastrophe — cherry-picking the proximate cause that suits their politics and priors. It wasn’t rising interest rates, poor risk management, the concentration of the depositor base, or Venture Catastrophists on social media. It was all of it."
https://www.profgalloway.com/venture-catastrophists/
34. "Now, I do think it’s worth acknowledging venture capitalists really are, for the most part, incredibly annoying. There is a reason for this. A venture capital firm is just money, and beyond a startup’s Series A the game of venture capital mostly consists of persuading the very best entrepreneurs to take money from you rather than the other guy.
This dynamic naturally places a great prominence on brand, or reputation. Among top VC firms, reputation is mostly made by record, both as a great ally to founders, and — most importantly — a winner. But for firms or venture capitalists with less of a track record, you’ve pretty much just got Twitter. Given venture capitalists are also people who tend to have a lot more time on their hands than they’d generally like you to think, this is a recipe for incredibly dramatic status games, all played loudly out online, which is just to say I get it.
I can’t stand a lot of these people myself, many of whom have spent the last week begging journalists to write hit pieces on my friends at Founders Fund, as it is easier to demonize a firm for acting responsibly in the middle of a crisis than it is to introspect and ask oneself difficult questions like “why did I tell my founders to sit still in the middle of a burning house,” and “how did I, a person literally professionally meant to understand risk, not understand this?”
https://www.piratewires.com/p/on-euthanizing-venture-capitalists
35. This is a great conversation this week. The Reset of VC!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yYwfiqYocc0&list=RDCMUCESLZhusAkFfsNsApnjF_Cg&start_radio=1
No Margin of Error: Lessons from Small Countries and Smaller Companies
Singapore, Georgia, Armenia, Estonia, Israel, Kazakhstan, all tiny countries surrounded by large geopolitical powers. Small populations, poor in natural resources & energy. They have very little room for error. Hence the folks who run these places really need their Sh-t together or they will get eaten. They have to play the geopolitical and diplomatic game better than anyone else. They have to have good long term planning and proper execution and investment in their people and policies.
Contrast this to the United States. A big massive population, the biggest economy, the most powerful military. A place rich in money, resources & energy and food. Geographically secure and well positioned with plenty of margin of error. Because of this, the place operates with a level of dysfunction intolerable in most countries. We have grossly incompetent, ignorant and venal people running the place. The reason for this is that we have no near and present threats. So it’s easy to become complacent and overly tolerant of incompetence. There is Nothing to make us wake up and force us to get things in order. At least not until we face some real massive pain. Small countries, like the ones I mentioned earlier, do not have that luxury.
This is also the reason why Big tech companies are not ones you should emulate. Bad management & dysfunctional cultures are a feature not a bug in Silicon Valley. Go down the list: Salesforce, Google, Yahoo!, Oracle, Uber, Netflix etc. etc. are all fat, bloated and poorly managed companies.
They can get away with this because they have amazing business models and crazy good profit margins. All this allows them to get away with incompetence.
The only well managed FAANG companies are 1) Facebook because Zuckerberg is a great operator and probably sociopathic & 2) Amazon under Bezos (also a great operator and probably sociopathic) with the addition of massive offline components & complexity. Thus by nature they have to get their stuff sorted well or the model breaks. Just like an airline or complex industrial manufacturing company. Running these kinds of companies smoothly and efficiently is incredibly hard.
The point I’m trying to make as I’ve stated before is that Silicon Valley giants are probably the wrong model for top exemplars of management. We overlook the importance of business models which turn them into de facto monopolies in their sectors. Their cultures are a result of the business model, not a driver of their business model.
There is so much bloat and fat at these companies, I reckon they can fire 50 percent of their staff and have little impact on their overall business. In fact, margins may even go far higher after.
This is why I believe in startups. Small is beautiful because there is almost zero margin of error. Startups have to operate at a crazy high tempo to survive. If something is not working, they have to fix it right away or they die!
So the analogy of small countries does work with small startups. The future belongs to the small and focused, not the big, powerful and shockingly dumb.
Efficiency & Over Optimization: the Path to Neurotic Unhappiness
I got along very well with my bosses when I was at Yahoo! Many of them became good friends and mentors of mine.
I remember when one of my bosses told me: “we get along because you have extremely high standards & work ethic”. This really meant something to me because he was Japanese and was known to be an incredibly dedicated and tough boss. We would work through the night sometimes or definitely very late.
This definitely seeped into the rest of my life as it happened at a very pivotal time in my life and career of mid-20s. It’s served me very well as this perfectionism, these exacting high standards helped me become a pretty good operator. I overly optimize everything, my diet, my schedule, my meetings, almost everything. I show up for meetings on time, I follow up and do what I say. Religiously. And it’s shocking how this puts you ahead of 99% of the people out there which is a sad comment on people but also explains much. Simply by just doing the basics and working hard.
It’s all about the mission and goal. This is the reason I “Get Sh-t Done” like a machine.
Unfortunately this trait has also turned into a very sharp double edged sword. I am highly intolerant of people who don’t do the work, have a crap work ethic and frankly, unreliable. I try to cut them out of my life quickly & have no time or patience for them. Unreliable people drive me berserk!
I also tend to over optimize my schedule and be incredibly intolerant of deviations from my plan. I get so much angst and if I am honest, deep anger and rage when things don’t go as planned.
I am so task-driven to get things completed that I ignore everything around me: my health, my family and many times my peace of mind and happiness. How can you have peace of mind when there is another goal on the horizon?
Don’t really have an answer here. I’m trying to ring fence my calendar and not over-schedule myself. I’m trying to keep open blocks of time and learning to say NO to opportunities. I should add that as I am writing this, I am not doing a good job in this department. Still overcommitted to too many things. I still drive myself crazy when things inevitably do not go as planned. I need a high level of predictability which is impossible in the world we live in.
Thus, to help myself, I try to meditate as much as I can, breathe calmly when things don’t go according to my plan and repeat “Inshallah” (God’s Will) to myself.
Efficiency is great for business. It makes you a great operating executive but not sure whether this is an asset in your personal life. But better to have than not I guess. Another conundrum to wrestle with. Life is messy and you need to just accept it which is hard for a Type A like me.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads March 12th, 2023
“Life is an adventure, not a package tour.”--Eckhart Tolle
"These trends have resulted in an overhang of companies that either (1) lived without product market fit and survived well past their natural expiration point, or (2) hired way ahead of progress and burned large sums with high valuations and now are stuck with little progress per dollar and a large preference stack.
When will companies run out of cash?
Many companies are likely about to meet a hard reckoning. This is likely to start end of 2023 and accelerate through end of 2024 or so. The likely timing is +/- 6 months. It is based on when companies last fundraised at scale, 2021, and how much runway they raised."
https://blog.eladgil.com/p/startup-decoupling-and-reckoning
2. "The joy/sexiness/luster of being a venture capitalist is starting to fade right now for so many people new to the business. When I say ‘new’ I mean people that started in the venture business between 2018-2022.
I believe the best seed and vc funds know how to treat both founders and LP’s as customers and shareholders at the right times."
https://www.howardlindzon.com/p/venture-capitalist-customer-shareholder
3. "The next time an entrepreneur excitedly shares their idea, ask questions about the market, and encourage them to doggedly pursue customer feedback, while being open to better, adjacent ideas during the process. Pursue great markets and find the best ideas within them."
https://davidcummings.org/2023/03/04/fall-in-love-with-the-market-not-the-idea/
4. "Ukraine has a path to victory still - I can see better Western armaments giving its scope to launch counteroffensives to recapture sizeable chunks of occupied Ukraine, even to the point that devastating defeat and the collapse of Russian forces in Ukraine is possible, even likely, but certainly more likely than that of Russian victory."
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/time-is-not-on-putins-side
5. "The reality is that if the Russian do capture Bakhmut, they are seizing rubble. It is a town with minimal strategic importance, with almost no remaining infrastructure to support an occupying force. That the Russians have invested so much in its capture speaks volumes about their poor strategy in this war.
For the Ukrainians, they will be withdrawing into defensive zones in the Kramatorsk areas that they have had eight years to prepare. And the city sits on higher, more defensible ground than Bakhmut. Any advance on the Kramatorsk region is likely to be every bit as bloody for the Russians as its campaign for Bakhmut."
https://mickryan.substack.com/p/the-battle-of-bakhmut
6. "As a society, we’re very attracted to the idea of “grit” and “gutting it out”. Meanwhile, there’s a huge stigma around “quit” (related terms include include backtrackers, chickens, defeatists, deserters, dropouts, wimps and anytime I try to do 20 burpees in a row).
But if you think about it, “grit” and “quit” are two sides of the same coin. By sticking with a project, you are choosing not to quit and vice versa."
https://trungphan.substack.com/p/grit-vs-quit
7. I do love glamping.
https://www.thesisdriven.com/p/staying-outside-the-rise-of-glamping
8. "You couldn’t ask for two better representatives of the NBA’s current divide.
In one corner, Draymond Green, the self-anointed leader of what he terms the New Media, an insurgent generation of players-slash-content creators (mostly podcasters and analysts) who aspire to cover the game by, in his words, “actually analyzing the game of basketball” and giving players their flowers while they can. It’s a noble pursuit, at least on paper.
Perkins, on the other hand, is the traditionalist, an avatar for what Green sees as the Old Media (mostly TV analysts) and everything wrong with it: hot takes, clickbait, and easy soundbites that flatten appreciation for the game. What makes Perk especially disappointing to Green is that he’s a former player, someone who should ostensibly know better."
https://www.gq.com/story/nba-generations-media-war
9. "The toll was so high, that the British came to understand that they had no hope of exerting strategic control over Massachusetts, and pulled out entirely in 1776.
Greene understood instinctively why Bunker Hill mattered and was not a British victory. When the results of the Battle became known, he answered with the quote above—that he would gladly sell the British another hill at the same price. And in a way he did. Though I dont have time to have too much of a historical digression here—Greene would later be sent by Washington to command colonial troops in the south, where he would ‘lose’ most of the battles he fought, but in such a way that he exhausted British forces in the South (led by Cornwallis) who became so worn out by Greene that they retreated northwards to Virginia.
There the British forces found themselves trapped at Yorktown—and I’m sure many of you know the result.
Nathaniel Greene would have known how to understand the importance of the Battle of Bakhmut—and his understanding remains the one that matters."
https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-18-the-end-of-the
10. Good advice for solopreneurs or aspiring sovereign individuals moving to Latam.
https://bowtiedmara.substack.com/p/the-sovereign-individual-stack
11. "Where Bankman-Fried effectively (but still allegedly) stole billions of dollars from regular people around the world, Hayes has never been accused of taking anything that didn’t belong to him, or lying to his customers, or running a crooked business. “He’s absolutely one of the good guys of crypto,” says Nic Carter, the co-founder of Castle Island Ventures, a blockchain-focused investment firm. “BitMEX never screwed over their clients, never got hacked, never lost money.”
If anything, Hayes has become something of a bitcoin martyr. “He’s not the typical bad actor who embezzled money or stole money or did something really nefarious,” says Daniel Bresler, a partner at the law firm Seward & Kissel, which specializes in crypto and financial crime. “He didn’t follow rules that some people say shouldn’t exist in the first place.”
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/arthur-hayes-bitmex-crypto-interview.html
12. "Despite spending less than 24 hours in Singapore, the journey was successful: The airline miles propelled Coy into platinum status on Delta, putting her in an elite group of frequent flyers and qualifying her for several perks.
“Sacrificing that one weekend was absolutely worth it,” said Coy, who also made a similar trip to Budapest.
Trips like this are known as mileage runs.
These are flights where the mileage is the purpose, not the destination. Travelers take them to earn or maintain elite status with airlines like Delta, United, American, Southwest, or Alaska.
But are the miles really worth the trouble? And how do mileage runs stack up in a post-pandemic world of higher prices and fewer flights?"
https://link.thehustle.co/view/5f3b700a2c81bf63140abd4biai76.dr3/6cd8a10d
13. "It is powering moguls and mini-moguls, supporting budding empires like The Free Press, Letters from an American, Not Boring by Packy McCormick, Lenny's Newsletter, Platformer, The Ankler., and many more. It is overvalued and underestimated, intolerant and permissive, loathed and adored.
Kleenex, Velcro, ChapStick, and Coke are all brand names that have come to define a category; Substack has wiggled its way into this distinguished, stuffy club as a precocious little urchin. Newsletters are not simply newsletters anymore; they are Substacks – sometimes even if they are not on the platform.
It is, in short, news, in every sense of the word.
Substack is not a publisher nor a simple tool. It is a network, an ecosystem, an engine alive with word and culture and thought; an empire of narratives."
https://thegeneralist.substack.com/p/substack
14. "Make no mistake: moves are being made right now to limit your personal freedom, your freedom of movement, and your freedom of choice. Moves that will target your finances, your ability to earn, and your ability to spend your money the way you see fit.
Since starting this newsletter, my big focus has been on personal freedom. But the centrepiece of that is always getting your financial house in order.
Growing an independent income that you have full control of. Creating investments that pay you regardless of what is happening in our world. And having the financial means to be able to move to the city, state, or country you choose to live in, to acquire new passports and residencies, or simply to go somewhere else you can experience more freedom."
https://abundantia.substack.com/p/the-monster-is-here
15. This is wacky. An ancient shark attack.
https://bigthink.com/the-past/ancient-shark-attack
16. "In the past few months alone, Japan has pledged to double defense spending and acquire long-range weapons from the US; South Korea has acknowledged that stability in the Taiwan Strait is essential to its security; the Philippines has announced new US base access rights and is talking about joint patrols of the South China Sea with Australia, Japan and the United States.
Those might be the biggest initiatives, but they are far from the only events that have left China increasingly isolated in its own backyard as it refuses to condemn the invasion of a sovereign country by its partner in Moscow while keeping military pressure on the self-ruled island of Taiwan."
https://edition.cnn.com/2023/03/05/asia/ukraine-war-us-pacific-alliances-intl-hnk
17. Albania is amazing and I look forward to exploring this beautiful country more (and eating their delicious food).
https://www.cntraveler.com/story/in-albanias-tourism-revival-food-plays-a-central-role
18. Must read and follow.
"In this blog post, we’ll explore 7 different streams of income that can help you achieve financial independence and build long-term wealth.
From passive income streams like real estate income and dividend stocks to more active income streams like entrepreneurship and royalties, there are a variety of ways to increase your earning potential and secure your financial future."
https://ofdollarsanddata.com/7-streams-of-income/
19. "One of the best decisions we can make is to reject the cultural expectations that shift and change with the wind. And to accept the fact that we don’t need to run with the cool kids to be happy.
We can choose to be ourselves instead."
https://www.becomingminimalist.com/much-cooler/
20. This is critical and a must read. Also very timely. How to manage your startups cash.
https://www.codingvc.com/p/cash-management-for-early-stage-startups
21. Good interview here. Peter Zeihan on geopolitics.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4jMQ-azCtv8
22. Luke Belmar dropping some knowledge bombs.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JPnpoq3tVOk
23. "We kick back and expect this to be a Bond film. Pass the popcorn. We are failing to understand the implicit message in all this. The line between civilian and military is blurring. China and Russia are both making it clear that they see everything and everyone is “dual use”. Militaries have long argued that technology could be used for either civilian or military purposes.
But, these days, the most valuable technologies have become dual use. Just as a car can kill you or drive you home safely, so it is with modern technology. The most sophisticated computer chips ARE the weapon. IP theft and patent trolling has been a battlefield with China for years for a reason."
https://drpippa.substack.com/p/you-are-the-combatant-in-this-war
24. Good discussion on innovation. Yes, her funds are not doing well but this is a cogent discussion on investing in innovation.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=44QUsV376GI
25. "If you must panic, panic early.
That’s the conventional wisdom ricocheting around Silicon Valley right now as technology institution Silicon Valley Bank looks precarious.
One founder at a venture capital event in San Francisco relayed that investors were fleeing to the edges of the room to call founders and warning them “not to be last in line at a bank run.”
https://www.newcomer.co/p/panic-erupts-as-venture-capitalists
26. "The Battle of Bakhmut is illustrative of one final difference. In Bakhmut, as it has through this whole war, Russia seeks victory through destruction – destruction of towns and cities, destruction of lives and Ukraine’s economy and will to exist. Ukraine, on the other hand, seeks victory through building.
It has built a unified Ukraine that is sovereign and able to defend itself, while also building for the world an example of how free people can join together to defend what they value."
27. This is really sad. End of a Silicon Valley icon. Also emblematic of the boom and bust cycle of Silicon Valley too.
https://www.newcomer.co/p/breaking-silicon-valley-bank-fails
28. "The longer-term effect of SVB’s collapse on the broader tech sector is likely to be negative, but not catastrophic. This episode and the general disruption and uncertainty it causes will add to the general air of pessimism that has prevailed since early 2022.
SVB also provided a lot of other financial services to companies, and it will be annoying and dispiriting to have to find new providers. And SVB was itself an important tech investor, so its demise will exacerbate the overall startup funding crunch.
In a way, this is just one more shoe dropping in the slow deflation of the Second Tech Boom. (On the bright side, more pessimism probably means higher returns for those who are both willing and able to invest while others are shunning the sector.)"
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/why-was-there-a-run-on-silicon-valley
29. What a mess. Like startup founders had nothing to worry about before this, now just one more crisis to sort out.
“Some of the companies that seem to be panicking may have had all their deposits sitting in cash with SVB rather than sweep accounts [that were not on the bank’s balance sheet], which is kind of stupid anyways,” he said.
Startup executives were also grappling with the broader legacy of Silicon Valley Bank, which had a reputation as a partner to tech firms that wouldn’t “put you out of business when you struggle to pay them back,” said Pat Kinsel, chief executive of Notarize, a Founders Fund-backed digital notary startup, which has worked with the bank at his previous startups.
“SVB going under means that many, many more startups will die when the going gets tough when they otherwise would have survived and thrived with their help,” he added."
Yellowstone Wisdom: Life is One Long Lesson
I love the television series Yellowstone. I think it’s a great modern American story. They live in a harsh unforgiving world. A place where only the strong survive. I love the tough Duttons and their cowboys. Living in savage & raw nature, defending their land from Indian tribes, hedge funds, real estate developers & militiamen.
“The people who are trying to take our place are evil. And we aren’t evil for trying to defend it.”
They have no mercy for anyone who attacks them. The Duttons will literally do whatever it takes to take out their enemies. This is the way. Probably how you should think about your life, business and property in my opinion. It’s a world where trust is earned not given. Anyways, it’s a great show.
But speaking of characters, Love her or hate her, Beth Dutton is one of the toughest individuals in the Get Sh-t Done way. Usually with ruthless & amoral methods. As stated in the show: “Behind every milestone of human history, stands a monster. That’s our monster!”
She is also surprisingly wise. As shown by the advice she gives to her young ward:
“I’m gonna tell you something. It is a universal truth. It doesn’t matter where you live. Man or woman. It is as true today as it was tens of f—ing years ago.
You want nice things? You want to the best? There are only 4 ways to get rich, kid. 4. That’s it.
Inherit it. That ain’t happening for you.
You steal it. You do not have, my friend, the patience, the power and honestly, the intellect to steal anything of substance.
Work really f-cking hard. Okay? You learn. You fail. Learn more. Fail more. And don’t let anyone outwork you. Ever.”
Option 4: well bit too crass to quote here.
There is so very much to all this. So to finish this off, i’ll end this with a quote from the show:
“There are two roads in life. One, You are either winning or learning. The other is that you are losing all the way to the F—ing grave. Better choose quickly or life’s going to choose for you.”
Worth thinking about.
The Modern Way of Escaping Your Problems: Working, Over-scheduling & Travel
Americans are accused of overworking and focusing too much of their time on work and business. We take very few holidays. It’s like we hate vacations or empty time.
I think part of this is due to the crazy competitive nature of the culture. Another part is the pure need to work so we can survive. This is also driven by the consumerist debt trap that many of us are caught in. But I actually wonder if the real reason is that we just don’t want to have the empty space and time to think.
Thinking is scary. Thinking forces you to face yourself and reality. Reality can be grim. I found myself in 2022 crazy busy, over-scheduled and traveling like mad. And in retrospect, if I am honest, most of this was not necessary.
Financially and business wise, I felt like I was in good shape. But my home and family life was in shambles. All these issues were caused by me and how I dealt with things back in 2020. In fact, I am still totally enraged by the incompetence I saw from our gov’t & the elites, how poorly served our kids were by the schools and how I was cheated by my tenants & business partners at that time. I will never forgive them or myself, nor will I forget.
I had a very hard time confronting this. I still do. Also not knowing what to do in these situations. It’s my worst nightmare. Therapy or no therapy, It’s just much easier to be away and escape.
That’s exactly what I did. I over scheduled myself. I traveled like crazy speaking at conferences all over the world. I didn’t have to but I felt compelled to get away. I probably took at least 19 business trips with 9 of them just from September to December. Crazy. But I needed the time and distance. I was basically hiding.
Sometimes you just need time to absorb it. And to acknowledge your guilt and ponder ways to fix things. But you can’t hide forever.
I know putting off solving problems leads to larger problems. You have to eventually deal with them. I normally face my problems head on. It’s something I pride myself on and preach about. And the good news is that I was finally able to deal with things. But only after I faced them down & took responsibility and action.
So my point is: busy schedules are great up to a point. But don’t mistake activity with results. You should always keep an open calendar and carve out substantial time to think. The more you think, the faster you can see the reality, however harsh it is. This way you might be able to do something about it.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads March 5th, 2023
“Adventure is Worthwhile.”--Aesop
"Ultimately, the clearer the message, the better people will understand it and the faster they’ll be able to know if they need it. Messaging and positioning are harder than they appear. Entrepreneurs would do well to lean on customers and better understand the value from their perspective."
https://davidcummings.org/2023/02/25/ask-the-customer-to-describe-the-value/
2. "Japan’s corporate leaders are much better than their reputation. Yes, they do lack the Davos-Jet-Set swagger, fly commercial, and still proudly print the office fax number on their meishi name-cards; and no, they have no social media presence and prefer to stay silent in investor- or press meetings.
But if you’re looking for extraordinary resilience and all-around competence to get the job done, Japan’s Salaryman CEOs - and their teams - deliver. And yes, by “job” I mean a razor-sharp focus on delivering corporate economic value and profitability.
Don’t believe me? The data speaks for itself: since 1992, top-line growth for economy-wide non-financial corporate Japan has been flat. Yet despite this three-decade-long stagnation of sales, corporate profits surged more than 5-fold."
https://japanoptimist.substack.com/p/japan-reality-check-4-in-praise-of
3. "Root breaks a bunch of VC orthodoxies. You went all in on hard tech. You have stayed close to your seed roots. All the partners are engineers. No one’s ex-banker or consultant! Your new website is fun and weird. All of this says a lot about Root’s ethos. Root has thrived and gone against the grain in the world of VC, which is a sea of sameness."
https://sarharibhakti.substack.com/p/breaking-orthodoxies-in-venture-capital
4. Hope this is truly the case. We need to support Ukraine to the hilt.
"So the Biden trip, the follow up, and the political imperative all make it very likely indeed that, as long as this administration is in power, US support for Ukraine will remain high. The commitments wont be walked back because they matter symbolically, the represent the views of the president—and they are good politics."
https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-17-biden-to-kyiv-china
5. "Five decades ago, Hot Wheels were America’s hottest new plaything. Today, the children of the ‘60s are fueling a small but mighty collectors’ market that wheels and deals in obscure corners of the internet.
Pascal is one of a handful of super collectors, dealers, and middlemen who pay top dollar for the rarest cars. It’s a colorful group that includes an ex-BMX stunt rider, an auto mechanics teacher, and a man who owns a geese-removal business.
How did one-time 59-cent toy cars become 5-figure collectibles? And what drives grown men and women to spend princely sums chasing them?"
https://thehustle.co/the-collectors-who-spend-thousands-on-rare-hot-wheels
6. "An alliance may be formed between the military capitalists and the hawkish part of the semi-autonomous state. They may be wiling to accept such “costs” if they enable the US to curb China’s rise.
The pure geopolitics would dominate economic interest. Historical experience helps such an alliance too: US has won all big wars (the First, the Second, and the Cold) and every time its victory has led it to the peak of geopolitical and economic power. Why should not that happen again?
This is how we should regard the future of globalization, at least from the point of view of the western calculation: as a trade-off between unconstrained geopolitical power and higher real domestic incomes. The economic arguments as well as the usual (and at times perhaps facile) assumption that the state does what capitalists want it to do overwhelmingly point in favor of continued globalization.
Yet the “bellic alliance” may be just sufficiently strong to keep the other side in check, if not to entirely overturn globalization and shift the country towards autarky."
https://branko2f7.substack.com/p/capitalists-the-state-and-globalization
7. "I can’t guarantee that stepping on the gas will get you that next round. What I will say is that if you’ve lowered growth to preserve capital, and you haven’t cut it down to the point where you’re on a path to breakeven without needing new capital, you need to think hard as to whether or not a having a little bit of growth is worth not being “default alive”.
Too many companies think they’re going to get a participation trophy for just hanging around longer than expected—and in a world where VCs will have spent more of their most recent fund propping up their own portfolio, there isn’t going to be as much capital for mediocre growth as founders are hoping.
Maybe the middle ground is not putting away your experiments.
I would figure out a way to default to breakeven while holding on to at least 2-3 real attempts at finding a growth hack that could change your story—one you could lean into hard if it worked."
https://ceonyc.substack.com/p/grow-fast-breakeven-or-die-how-moderate
8. So much wisdom here. Worth reading the whole thing.
"In Short, it isn’t enough to stop caring what people think, recognize they never even spend a second worrying about you in the first place. This should allow you to mentally take more risk. No one is going to care if you fail anyway. They will forget in 24 hours. Similar to when an employee gets let go and people forget he/she existed in 3-6 months. Everyone is replaceable.
If you’re trying to make plans 3-5 years is a good time frame. Beyond that life gets in the way.”
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/random-life-lessons-in-no-particular
9. "The simple answer is Putin’s forces have failed, and the battlefield situation is extremely tenuous for Putin: it’s not clear that this new offensive is going to work, and there is a real danger, from the Chinese point of view, that Putin might be in some way defeated on the battlefield, that he might have to withdraw — but even worse, that if he withdrew and then people within Russia were angry about this, that he could be toppled from the government.
And nobody knows what kind of Russian government would come after Putin; it’s very difficult to predict what the succession would be like.
The Chinese very much want to find a way to keep Putin in power, because Xi Jinping feels very comfortable with Putin. They are now looking at, I think, how they could get Putin the kind of help he needs."
https://www.chinatalk.media/p/will-xi-arm-putin-has-a-cold-war
10. This is a very good primer for startup investing. This guy is a very good investor.
11. "Amid leaks that Marcus was hemorrhaging money, Solomon finally decided to pull back sharply on the effort that he had once championed to investors and the media. His checking account would be repurposed for wealth management clients, which would save money on marketing costs.
Now it is Ismail, who joined a Walmart-backed fintech called One in early 2021, who will be taking on the banking world with a direct-to-consumer digital startup. His former employer Goldman would largely content itself with being a behind-the-scenes player, providing its technology and balance sheet to established brands.
For a company with as much self-regard as Goldman, it would mark a sharp comedown from the vision held by Solomon only months earlier.
“David would say, ‘We’re building the business for the next 50 years, not for today,’” said one former Goldman insider. “He should’ve listened to his own sound bite.”
12. This one never gets old. Startup life!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_WRGu6Zr5tQ
13. This is a valuable discussion on when to quit and when to keep grinding. Worth listening to.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q8jgetflxUA&t=1s
14. "How about just spelling it out - the rouble is weaker because of Putin’s failed invasion of Ukraine and sanctions."
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/russia-the-rouble-is-weak-for-lt
15. "As a VC, I obviously want to see every company I invest in succeed, but I know that will never happen. So while it’s hard not to admire the grit of those founders determined to give it their all, it’s difficult for me as a former founder to watch some of them continue down a path that I know has little-to-no chance of success.
If you’re a founder reading this, I hope you win. But please know that it’s okay to quit. To quit something that’s no longer worth pursuing isn’t a failure, it’s a success."
https://chrisneumann.com/blog/when-to-walk-away
16. This is a great discussion: business and investing is where these guys really excel.
You Self Select When You come to America: A Harder life Equates to Greater Opportunities
When you immigrate somewhere outside your home country you are making a decision about the kind of life you want to live. You are trading off lifestyle versus opportunity. The opportunity for a new start and a new you.
As Louis L’amour’s “Flint” speaking about the Wild West frontier said:
“All Western Men Are from somewhere else when it comes to that. At the stage station in Alamitos I heard Swedish, German and Irish accents in just a few minutes, but I believe a Western man is a matter of psychology. The mere fact that a man chooses to come West indicates a difference of temperament or attitude, and then there’s bound to be changes due to the landscapes and the conditions.
I suppose the basic difference is that men want to survive, to mate, and to have security….and out here the other conditions are outweighed by the necessity to survive.”
I cannot think of a better description of America than that.
This is what I specifically am looking for when I meet startup founders from Europe and Canada. People willing to leave their home countries to come to America and compete. They are leaving places that are truly wonderful places to live. In all of my travels I notice the deep contrast of the much better quality of life in these places compared to the USA.
I’m not saying the USA is awful. It’s not but it is a much bigger, much more competitive and harder place to live. In fact, I’d say it’s ferociously competitive.
People around the world say that America has no culture. I would strongly disagree with this view: America does have a culture, a culture of aspiration & ambition.
It’s also a tough place that exemplifies the term “Extremistan” where the outcomes are very extreme. You end up being super successful or end up on the street.
“Many people have doubled (or lost all of) their net worth in a single moment: a company goes public or announces bankruptcy. A stock quintuples or crashes.
Vast man-made empires have been toppled by a single event—the storming of the Bastille, the signing of The Declaration of Independence. These individual events are what change looks like in Extremistan.
Sudden, violent, irreversible. Most of all, unforeseen.
As technology continues to evolve, we are, increasingly, living our lives in Extremistan. As more and more of the world around us goes from biological to man made, the degree to which our reality is defined by Extremistan is increasing.
In Extremistan, risk doesn’t live in the past; it lives in the future.”
Source: https://taylorpearson.me/extremistan/amp/
You self select when you choose to come to America. I see this in Silicon Valley. If you want to be the best, you have to be around and compete with the best. You discover what is the global maximum. Until that changes, America will still be the best place for business on the planet.
Risks are a Fact of Life: Take More of Them
I loved the show “Person of Interest” and there is this scene where two of the main characters are caught in a situation where they are losing badly against the main enemy. The lead character is playing it safe but his friend goes on to say:
“Our only option is to take risks. Big ones. We have to be willing to do whatever it takes now or we’ve already lost. It’s No Risk, No reward.”
It’s interesting when I play back all my decisions in my life and career. I cannot lie that I don’t regret anything. I regret many things and they all stem from being too careful and not taking any risks in my life. All for fear of looking stupid, fear of failure or being rejected.
The girls I should have approached and asked out in high school or University. The jobs or companies in my career I should have aimed for. The investments I should have done. The apologies I should have made before it was too late. So many regrets & so many questions.
And in retrospect so many of these risks were what we call asymmetric risks: defined as by Andy Liu: “Asymmetrical risk is the concept of taking a risk that will produce a return that far surpasses the risk taken. This is a really important concept that can change your quality of life greatly.“ Basically: Low downside but massive upside.
Who knows where I would be in life now if I had been smarter and not played it safe. It’s not that I have anything to complain about. But still. Safe is Unsafe in our unstable world. This is why you have to take action. Do stuff.
To quote the great Silicon Valley philosopher Naval Ravikant:
"Asymmetric opportunities:
Invest in startups
Start a company
Create a book, podcast, video
Create a (software) product
Go on many first dates
Go to a cocktail party
Read a Lindy book
Move to a big city
Buy Bitcoin
Tweet."
Source: https://mobile.twitter.com/navalbot/status/1076568269685956617?lang=en
So the point: take more asymmetric risks in life. This way you will have less regrets & questions of “what might have been” in life. This is the only way you can truly live.
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads Feb 26th, 2023
“Cultivate the habit of being grateful for every good thing that comes to you, and to give thanks continuously. And because all things have contributed to your advancement, you should include all things in your gratitude.” —Ralph Waldo Emerson
"Economic growth policies work best when they seize upon a natural trend. And inside Japan, the most powerful megatrend is the unlocking of Japan’s enormous household sector financial assets because of inheritance.
Specifically, it is estimated that of the famous Y2,000 trillion of household financial wealth, as much as 50% is owned by people aged 70 or older. This implies that somewhere between Y400-700 trillion will get “unstuck” due to Japan’s natural demographic destiny over the coming 10-15 years.
While the exact numerical estimates may be subject to debate, there must be no doubt that here we have an unprecedented opportunity for policy makers to become creative. The goal is simple: let us try to channel these funds towards investments for Japan’s future."
https://japanoptimist.substack.com/p/from-inheritance-liability-to-investment
2. "Put together, the internal combustion engine, the microchip, and the shipping container permanently changed both the possibilities and expectations for standards of living. Consequently, much of what we label “globalization” or “globalism” isn’t due to a particular political order but to advances in technology.
That’s not to say that political decisions don’t matter, of course they do. What this means is that technological progress plays a greater role in the human existence than many geopolitical theorists care to recognize.
The reality of technological progress is the end of globalization doesn’t mean a total collapse of global living standards. The world today is too interconnected for that to happen. Instead, the more likely scenario is for trade to become less globalization and more regionalized. A decline in the global order means a rise in regional orders.Power abhors a vacuum. Systems will seek a new equilibrium.
The great challenge facing humanity is that this transition from globalization to regionalization takes time, and typically times of transition are punctuated by acute chaos.
We are now entering a period of geopolitical chaos and uncertainty."
https://shatterpointgeopolitics.substack.com/p/a-roadmap-to-globalizations-end
3. "I had to learn how to build towards financial wellness operating at early-stage startups and working on my own micro fund as an entrepreneur the hard way. Navigating startup liquidity was a scary experience because no one before me had gone through this experience.
Frankly, I’ve never seen wealth transfer between generations. My family has only experienced loss in the form of war, the Cultural Revolution, and immigration. I know I’m not alone in these experiences as so many of my first gen founder friends have confided in me their anxieties around money and a sense of never having enough."
https://bosefina.substack.com/p/the-psychology-of-money-for-first
4. Scary new world we are entering. Autonomous weapons coming.
https://johnrobb.substack.com/p/balloons-and-autonomous-weapons
5. This is a disturbing but incredible interview on the war happening in Mexico right now between the drug gangs and the government there.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9PIOoJMMptA
6. Woke is a joke. This is an important presentation. We need to wake up from this stupidity.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zJdqJu-6ZPo
7. A critical concept for startups. Language market fit.
"It’s language/market fit at work — when you find the exact right words to explain your product or service to prospective customers, words that resonate with goals and struggles that are already in their brains.
When you talk about your product, a lightbulb in their heads switches on that says, “That is EXACTLY what I’m looking for” — they feel like you’ve read their minds.
I myself didn’t realize until I jumped the wall from operator to VC and saw hundreds of early-stage companies, but now it’s clear as day: language/market fit is the most under-appreciated concept for early-stage startups."
8. This is a great and very honest discussion with Chamath. But so many self help, business and investment insights.
One worth listening to. This really makes me like him again.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dz6mfGFri9U
9. "The struggle with the Soviet Union, he calls the “first Cold War.” The second has already started, and the West, he insists, is not the aggressor. “This is not something we chose,” Gallagher said, “the CCP, with their junior partner Russia, have been waging a new cold war against us for the better part of a decade.”
That conflict will remake the world, he warns, “and we are just waking up to that now.”
“We’re not trying to take territory. We’re not trying to reshape a foreign country in our own image. We’re trying to defend the free world from communist, totalitarian aggression,” he said summarizing the emerging power conflict that will define the next century and the mission of his new committee. “That’s what it’s all about.”
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2023/02/14/mike_gallagher_a_new_cold_warrior__148856.html
10. "Speed is the single best way to de-risk a startup. The way to survive the unforgiving marathon that is startup life is, paradoxically, to sprint as fast as you can. Speed is a startup's best friend.
Almost everybody in the startup ecosystem agrees that speed is a good thing. Almost nobody acts like it.
We’ve been socialized to believe that going too fast is risky. We fear launching too soon; we abhor looking sloppy; we shy away from criticism; we look for side-quests; we think ‘one more feature’ will save us; we bike-shed. All these tendencies slow us down, but we think they reduce our chance of failure, and more importantly, the appearance of failure.
We forget that for startups, not going fast is riskier still."
https://pivotal.substack.com/p/the-perils-of-prudence
11. "So we have a situation of skyrocketing Russian losses on the offensive for corresponding declining gains. This is the Russian Army declining as an offensive force and the Ukrainian gaining as a defensive force—this is the big story of the last two months—not some ‘massive’ Russian offensive."
https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-16-russias-massive
12. Fascinating tweet thread of an obscure but brilliant general in Hapsburg Europe.
https://twitter.com/LandsknechtPike/status/1627303219528359936
13. "But applause can become addicting. And I’ve noticed something unsettling in my many years around musicians. The more they get the acclaim, the more they start needing it. You might think that after all the big paychecks and standing ovations, they would eventually have reached some sense of self-satisfaction that would allow for an easy retirement.
But that’s not true. In fact, the opposite is the more typical case. The more the artists are rewarded, the more they still want. I’m reminded of the quip of Roman epigrammist Martial who said: “Fortune gives too much to many, but enough to none.”
https://tedgioia.substack.com/p/why-musicians-cant-retire
14. Enlightening and sobering lessons in geopolitics from history. This is a great discussion.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3ww4ofe0v70
15. "In our conversation last year, we delved into the nature of the Putin regime, his decision to invade, and what the war could look like as time unfurled.
Now we know: the Russian invasion has been a catastrophe in every sense. There have been hundreds of thousands of casualties––it is folly to attempt a more accurate reckoning––and much of Ukraine’s infrastructure is in ruins.
Once the Russian military failed to achieve its early hope of taking the capital, Kyiv, and supplanting the Ukrainian leadership, it has prosecuted a vicious war of attrition, in which more and more human beings on both sides are sacrificed to Putin’s pitiless ambitions."
https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-new-yorker-interview/how-the-war-in-ukraine-ends
16. A list of the many reasons people hate VCs. I get it.
"Truth be told, you have to find the right fit for your company. Maybe you really need hands on guidance to build, but realistically you can get just as much value out of a VC who makes a few good warm intros, wires you the money, and leaves you alone, as you can from one who wants to call you every week.
VC-Founder fit is majorly underrated. I personally try to let founders in our portfolio build but provide the right safety net and guidance so that I can be the first person off the bench if ever needed. Either way, VCs should be honest about their value adds, and never claim to provide services they don’t. Doing otherwise is just pure deceit to win a deal."
https://medium.com/dam-venture/the-lies-that-make-people-hate-vc-3-3-cf902f91e1f6
17. "In the PLG zeitgeist, founders must not lose sight of the importance of professional services in moving upmarket to enterprise. Services like implementation, training, maintenance and support are paramount to driving retention, expansion, and second order revenue (e.g. referrals, references).
The same principle applies to how professional services are a bridge to multi-year recurring revenue contracts; 'lower' quality professional services revenue begets high quality subscription revenue."
https://akashbajwa.substack.com/p/professional-services-beget-high
18. "My views have not changed, Russian cannot win this war militarily and more likely is still a Ukraine win thru this spring counteroffensive.
But, the most interesting development this weekend was a) talk of a Chinese peace plan, after hints of such by the Chinese foreign minister visiting the Munich security conference. b) Blinken warning that China was about to step up arms supplies to Russia.
I think all this is linked. Russia is losing the war in Ukraine - China does not want Russia to suffer a crushing defeat in Ukraine, which could threaten political stability in Russia itself and thereby weakening the use of its own security pact with Moscow.
And the offer of pe
ace talks is basically China now saying “stop, or else we arm Russia”. Likely this much was communicated to Blinken in Munich by the Chinese. This is meant to get the US and Ukraine to peace talks."
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/war-in-ukraine-china-stepping-in
19. Really solid interview. I always learn from Chamath (both positive and negative)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UQXjZq0D-uA
20. Saudi Arabia is awesome and underrated. Its worth visiting: amazing culture, great food and nice people. I've been here 5 times in last year.
https://www.afar.com/travel-guides/saudi-arabia/guide
21. "Symbols matter: a Kennedy or a Reagan at the Berlin Wall, a Churchill with a cigar and a bowler, for that matter a green-clad Zelensky growling, “I need ammunition, not a ride.” Simply by taking the hazardous trip to Kyiv, Biden made a strategic move of cardinal importance.
The Russia-Ukraine war is not merely a humanitarian calamity, a monstrous collection of crimes against humanity, a gross violation of solemn agreements and international law. It is also a watershed, in which much will be determined about the future of the international system.
It could lead to a very dark place, not different in kind from that of the 1930s and 1940s, if the dictators get their way. But if the liberal democracies unite and display the resolve, enterprise, and military capacity that they have shown before, that outcome can still be avoided."
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/02/biden-ukraine/673135/
22. "I guess also if Chinese threats to arm Russia if the U.S. fails to push Ukraine to the peace table are to mean anything the US has to think that China is serious.
But therein it knows if it goes all in in providing military support for Russia it really will be a new Cold War with the West with Europe forced firmly into the U.S. camp against China and Russia. China will lose whatever remaining leverage it might have with Europe against the US.
And the world would then appear a very dangerous place with two entrenched armed camps marching to the drumbeat of war. Does China em really want that? I don’t think so. So China is not negotiating here from a position of strength either."
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/ukraine-china-and-the-biden-visit
23. "Your workday is comprised of thousands of decisions ranging from very broad to very particular, but each one is a decision that needs to be made. This leads me to a conclusion:
Your job is about making decisions regardless if you are an Individual Contributor or a CEO.
The best products make decisions for me, so I don’t have to. They are opinionated and have sensible defaults. This is because the companies behind them put in the work to make these decisions instead of abdicating them to their customers."
https://substack.piszek.com/p/the-universal-unit-of-work-is-a-decision
24. Good basics for understanding how bonds work. It should be some part of your portfolio.
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/bonds-for-newbies
25. "Some of the sharpest, hardest-working people I know are my tax advisers. No joke. I pay these people six figures, and they routinely save me seven. It’s a great ROI but a drain on society. We’re paying some of our best and brightest to solve problems of our own making — helping rich people navigate a maze other Americans can’t afford to enter. Am I a hypocrite for engaging in these strategies? Maybe. But I’m not going to disarm unilaterally … said every wealthy household.
Substantially reducing tax evasion and corporate tax avoidance could save us $1 trillion per year. That could go a long way toward closing the $1.4 trillion gap between our spending and revenue in 2023, without “raising” taxes at all. Indeed, it would more than pay for our current spending — it’s the $640 billion in interest costs on the debt that drags us back into the red.
Collecting the taxes we’re owed and aligning what’s owed to what’s paid is fundamental to building trust in the government and our institutions — something lacking in the U.S. Edmund Burke, a founding father of conservative thought, was deeply concerned about the stability and legitimacy of government."
https://www.profgalloway.com/taxes/
26. Cogent and sober discussion from US SOF military vet who has also fought in Ukraine recently. #slavaukraini
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=r4KsF0DQ_0Y
27. "The thing about jumping through your window when it opens is that it causes it to stay opened longer. Hiring great people raises the bar internally on execution. Growth sustains if not accelerates. Things start to compound more and more. A window that might be open for a few months can stay opened for several.
But eventually the window will close. This is not to say your business isn't still thriving, but the universe has just retracted its cosmic help, moving on to new younger startups whose stars are about align. You'll look back and miss that time when gravity loosened its grip. But hopefully you won't regret not acting on it."
https://sarahtavel.substack.com/p/taking-advantage-when-a-window-opens
28. "In other words, full Chinese support for Russia’s war effort has ominous consequences — both because it commits the West to a slow proxy war in which it’s currently at a disadvantage, and because it signals China’s determination to continue its push to overturn the existing order and rewrite the boundaries of nation-states according to its liking.
In other words, the New Axis is no longer just a hypothetical term; it appears to be a real thing. Very little good will come of that."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/china-goes-all-in-on-russias-war
29. "The irony if Putin invaded Ukraine with ambitions to create a Greater Russia, but the end game might prove to be a Lesser Russia with new states emerging across the Russian Federation, mimicking events after 1991 and the collapse of the USSR."
https://timothyash.substack.com/p/putins-war-brings-russias-decline
30. "Looking to the immediate future, there can be no end save victory for Ukraine over Russia. The United States and its allies have committed themselves to Ukraine for the long haul, and they can’t waver now. That means backing Kyiv as long as it takes to win back all of Ukraine’s territory, whether through liberation or negotiation. It also entails membership in NATO (or some other concrete security guarantees) and the European Union, both for geopolitical stability and reconstruction once the war ends.
More broadly, though, the United States and its allies need to act on their understanding of a world changed by the war in Ukraine. Increases in defense spending and production are a must, of course, but we need to reinforce other ties as well — or at least manage disputes and differences on issues like trade far more collegially than we have to date.
Neither the United States nor its allies around the world can delude themselves into thinking that the world will snap back to the way it was a year ago. The post-Cold War world is dead, and there’s no reviving it. We’ve got to forge ahead into this uncharted territory with confidence in ourselves and our values, knowing that we can succeed — and that Ukraine’s fight is truly our own."
https://www.liberalpatriot.com/p/kyiv-stands-strong-proud-tall-and
31. Defensetech is here.
https://andrewglenn.substack.com/p/defense-is-big-business
32. "If we have learned one thing the last year is that all players have moved forward on their intents and ambitions, but only incrementally. The goals have not changed. Russia still wants Ukraine, Ukraine wants its territory back, the West wants that too while boxing in and defanging Putin, while China wants a weaker West and a stronger but not overly dangerous Russia.
None of these objectives are compatible or bridgeable which means there is not even a basic blueprint for a peace deal on the table. The people of Ukraine are thus paying an incredible toll for a shifting global order. It has been a terrible spectacle to watch over the past twelve months and there is no end in sight."
https://pieterdorsman.substack.com/p/one-year-in-ukraine
33. The guys are great when they are talking about tech, VC and SaaS.
I think they are very misinformed when it comes to Ukraine and geopolitics. They are clearly not very international. #Stayinyourlane
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OKshpRGOY0I
34. Good discussion, Ukraine is on the frontlines of the free world, defending itself against an autocratic aggressor. It's sad that many people seem to have forgotten this.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ab24tDK9pV0
35. "This is a major paradigm shift. Companies are selling to the lifestyle, instead of the moment. They’re creating products to help you prove that you’re a member of the community.
And when there’s a new product drop, the community will swarm to purchase and deepen their identity."
https://latecheckout.substack.com/p/why-people-really-buy-your-products
Business and Family, Family and Business: Neither do They Meet
After almost 6 years hiatus (F-ck Covid and the brain dead bureaucrats who shut down the world), I was so happy to meet up with an old friend and Yahoo! colleague who was one of my best mentors and patrons. It was so wonderful to catch up on business and family life. And also to know that I was not the only one with major family challenges. Like myself and many others, Covid lockdowns exacerbated many family issues which we still struggle to fix so many years later.
I’ve long struggled with my so-called work life balance. One of the problems of growing up poor and being an insecure type A with a massive chip on his shoulder. I threw myself into work because it was simple. The scorecard of status and far more importantly, money. So easy to measure how you are doing and in comparison with others. So more work, more money.
The problem with family is there is no clear score card like money or status. You can’t quantify how well you are doing. And if you are a parent, those small issues and traumas of your child could seep into major ones. Ones that you unintentionally exacerbate.
It’s doubly frustrating for someone who used to have the reputation of an effective operator, trouble shooter and fixer in his business career. I’m MR GSD aka “Get Sh-t Done.” Being so focused aka super mission or objective-oriented, that you ignore everything and anything that does that doesn’t help you with hitting your goal.
But you can’t use these tactics and strategies for your home life. In fact, it tends to make things worse as I’ve learned over the last 2 years. It took me a lot of time on the road to hide from family and to process it. Also took a lot of therapy to understand this.
My big lesson: if you want to repair your home life, you have to unlearn all your business thinking, training & instincts. You have to have deep reserves of patience. And you also have to learn to ask good questions and listen deeply. The answers usually aren’t what you want to hear, especially from an angry teen. They say some pretty harsh and painful things I can tell you. It hurts especially bad as you do everything for them and love them so much.
But If you genuinely want to make things right and for them to heal, you have to take responsibility and face up to it. As Ryan Holiday wrote: “Ego is the Enemy.” So crush your ego and focus on improving your family life. Your kid is more than worth it. If you do help your kid, ultimately it’s your second chance to resolve some personal issues of your inner kid too.
Kingmaker: Executing Ruthlessly in the Shadows
Watched this Korean movie about politics during the 1960-1970s, where this brilliant man partners with an opposition politician to rise to the top against an entrenched dominant political party (actually based on the real life story of Kim Dae Jung and his political strategist Uhm Chang-rok). He is ruthless, amoral, orthogonal thinker and does whatever it takes to win. He does it because he believes in his friend who truly wants to make Korea a true democracy. Everyone calls him the Shadow.
To illustrate his tactics: he has his people pretend to be opposition party members and goes around insulting local people to turn them against his opponents. Because his party has no money, they also go back and collect the bribes and gifts given by the dominant party which enrages the people. They rewrap the gifts and then give them out again. He is so cynical and proposes ideas that are so vile and beyond the fold of decency. His tactics are cruel and brutal. But they work. He is a master at reading a situation and understanding the psychology of the people. He says: “A raging bull only sees a waving red flag” as he shapes the people’s perceptions.
I find it interesting that this is more than relevant in our technology, internet and media driven world. We lurch from crisis to crisis, while most of the people are distracted by the “new current thing” whatever it is. Our brains are overwhelmed by the noise and also by dopamine hits.
It’s so hard to think deeply about anything these days. And the powers that be, whether politicians, bureaucrats, media & corporate leaders, banksters, The World Economic Forum; this is exactly where they want the populace to be. Reacting, running to and fro, barely surviving and barely looking past the next weeks or months.
There is a way out for all of us: Do a digital detox, spend time in nature, reading real paper books that meet the “Lindy Effect” of being around for a long time. Learning to think critically and for ourselves.
And frankly speaking, chasing our own goals and ambitions with the ruthlessness that the Shadow engaged in to get his candidate to the top. I realized I lost political games in the past because I had limits while my opponents had none. They beat me because they were more ruthless and amoral. Also probably because they wanted to win more.
There is a great but painful lesson here and it’s wrapped up well by a quote from the movie:
“Doesn’t the word justice belong to the victor. So a successful coup is called a revolution. Our side won so we have justice.”
Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads Feb 19th, 2023
“As we express our gratitude, we must never forget that the highest appreciation is not to utter words, but to live by them.” —John F. Kennedy
Europe needs to wake up & ramp up on defense spending and their militaries. Unfortunately, USA is an unreliable ally, thanks to soulless, evil individuals on the hard left and right. ie. Tucker Carlson et al.
"Militarily, Europe will be able to outmatch Russia — if it tries to do so. The Ukraine war has shown that NATO’s military equipment, culture, and doctrine is superior to that of Russia. The only reason Russia looms so large as a military threat is that commits far more of its economy to its military than European countries do — even East European countries that are under immediate threat from Russia.
In order to stare down Russia over the next two or three decades, Europe must change this mindset completely. The invasion of Ukraine caused the region to unite politically around sanctions and military aid in a way that it hasn’t been united in its entire history. But this isn’t enough; Europe must unite to increase defense spending substantially, and wean itself entirely off of Russian energy."
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/europe-has-to-stand-against-russia
2. Lots of great insights from a VC who started in 1985. Lots of cycles and lots of learning.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=X73seiJW3L8
3. "Of the two leaders – Zelenskiy and Putin – it’s clearly the Ukrainian who is heeding most of the warnings. Perhaps Putin needs to read my book so he can learn this history for himself. Although, since we all hope he keeps performing incompetently, maybe it’s best if he doesn’t."
4. "Layoffs: Unsurprisingly, cuts are still occurring. It’ll be Wall Street cutting more through end of March and the Main Street effects will be seen in the second half of the year. This is how it goes historically: Tech, Wall St. and Mainstreet"
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/2019-vs-2023-more-sec-regulation
5. "In any case, with the Treasury flooding the market with debt and the Fed talking out of both sides of their ass, I would say this future is negative at the margin for risky assets.
That means that, if you are planning to buy risky assets now, you need to be prepared to watch the market very closely and be ready to pound the sell button as soon as the TGA has been completely drawn down to zero but before the debt ceiling is raised."
https://entrepreneurshandbook.co/be-present-aff45d6421b4
6. A must read here. About entrepreneurship and life in a war zone: the Baghdad Country Club.
https://magazine.atavist.com/baghdad-country-club
7. "A strong bridge financing ask paints a clear picture of what the company will do with the money that will change the company’s trajectory and answer some of the big outstanding questions about the business.
In many cases, a strong bridge financing ask explicitly calls for changing something about how the company operates – reducing burn rate, focusing more energy on generating revenue, improving unit economics, or shipping key features or products that will unlock new customer segments."
https://www.charleshudson.net/tips-for-talking-to-your-investors-about-bridges-and-extensions
8. "If you’re bad at picking winners…well, other than considering another line of work, you could eliminate the effect of your decision quality by indexing the market and allocating capital randomly. But, again, it depends on your goal.
If you want to just achieve 1x and avoid losses, create a large portfolio. If you want to achieve 2, 3, 5x, you either need to improve your decision quality or invest in fewer companies and hope for the best."
https://pulse.moonfire.com/972-billion-portfolios-how-to-design-the-optimal-venture-portfolio
9. "So, does this mean venture capital is taking a couple years off? Definitely not. But what becomes more likely is an exacerbated bifurcation between companies that can and can't access capital.
Now just apply that same dichotomy to private companies, and assume its like we're in ~2011-2012. The more pressure there is on capital, the less fluid it is, and the more dramatic people's expectations are for what kinds of companies will get capital."
https://investing1012dot0.substack.com/p/dreaming-of-dry-powder
10. "Russian advances, when they are successful, are incremental, their losses in tanks and aircraft when they engage the Ukrainians are extremely high (especially for tanks) and so far we see no sign of successful combined-arms Russian warfighting which would allow for such an amazing reversal in the course of the war.
Moreover, and I know this is my constant personal bugbear, no one bothered to analyse just how such a massive force of machines would be supplied. Once again, logistics lost out to scary hordes of Russian tanks streaking forward in the popular imagination.
All I can say, is that I see no indication whatsoever that the Russians could attempt such a major, air-armor breakout and exploitation. I don’t see how they could supply it, I don’t see any indication that their army knows how to execute it, and I can't see how the Ukrainians could be caught by surprise were the Russians to attempt it."
https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-15
11. "The major things that should be highlighted are as follows:
1) there is no way you should try to retire in a bull market. This typically over-states your net-worth,
2) you should not try to cheap your way to the top since it creates a lifetime of stress,
3) most people severely underestimate how much they can earn as an entrepreneur *IF* they have a successful career based income stream and
4) within the blogosphere, FAT Fire is probably the most respectable as it doesn’t force you to live a boring life forever."
https://bowtiedbull.substack.com/p/retire-with-fire-and-guarantee-a
12. "Additionally, I believe that small businesses are going to come under even more immense pressure. Technology is empowering large companies like Amazon to eat more market share of various industries, so the small business entrepreneur is going to feel the squeeze. They are under attack from an economic standpoint and they are under attack from a competition standpoint.
The competition aspect is a net positive for the consumer, especially when you consider how much improvement to products and services happen via the free market, but the economic pressure is going to be a net negative for the consumer, particularly around increasing prices and an erosion in the quality of service.
Many people I talk to on a daily basis share stories that make you think we are in the 12th round of a title fight. We have been hit in the face over and over again. We can’t see straight and we’re not sure where we are exactly. But be very, very careful — just because we have been beat up economically for the last 14 months doesn’t mean that more pain can’t be on our doorstep."
https://pomp.substack.com/p/inflation-is-destroying-small-business
13. "How do we fix this? Simple. Fix the timing. If your company has a a quarterly business review (QBR) where next-quarter OKRs are discussed and assigned, then ensure the CSAT report arrives days before that meeting.
Better yet, make the CSAT report review a standing item on the QBR agenda. Along with a review of the win/loss report. Time the annual state-of-the-market study so it arrives a week or two before the strategy offsite.
Don’t fight your company’s cadence. Instead, slide into it. Design the surveys to be actionable and time them so they can be. Work with your vendors to move to new timing. Otherwise, you’re spending $50K to dump a report into a drawer (or a PDF into a shared drive)."
https://kellblog.com/2023/02/13/the-key-to-making-market-research-actionable
14. This is an incredibly good commencement speech by Ashton Kutcher.
"And the only thing that provided me with an opportunity to be where I am today was a willingness to throw out the master plan. Now, I didn't throw out the hard work, I didn't throw out the morals, I didn't throw my goals, I didn't throw out my ambition, my drive, my experience. I just threw out the master plan. I'm not saying you're gonna have to do that. But I'm saying having a willingness to do that goes a long ways.
You don't ever have to know what you want to be when you grow up. And the truth is, even if you think you know who you are right now, you're probably wrong. Because you're not who everyone else thinks that you are. In fact, you're probably not who you think you are. And your life will definitely not go as planned."
https://aletteraday.substack.com/p/letter-56-ashton-kutcher-2020
15. We're at war and most people don't know it.
"Today, I stand by all this and will now argue that many of the strange events around UAPs, odd lights in the sky, and other concerning events, are the result of this arms race and the ongoing invisible war that the superpowers are conducting with all this money and new tech in the places the public cannot see: near and far space, across and under the open oceans, within data/cyberspaces, and in, let’s call it, “Spygame land” where spies have returned as a “thing.”
The Chinese “Sky Lanterns” floating across the skies have illuminated a previously invisible arms race and a war that we need to understand."
https://drpippa.substack.com/p/qe-uaps-aliens-and-the-invisible
16. "Knowing that empirical evidence suggests 10 seats is a catalyst for sustained expansion, B2B software companies with PLG motions can take a leaf out of consumer growth playbooks when designing expansion processes.
The starting point is how consumer growth teams think about the adoption funnel."
https://akashbajwa.substack.com/p/consumer-gtm-insights-for-b2b-software
17. This is good news for the Canadian startup scene and most needed.
https://betakit.com/real-ventures-partners-with-panache-inovia-to-relaunch-founderfuel-accelerator
18. Always learn stuff on culture capital and leverage in discussion with Trapital & the NIA boys.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=82LIplhsyNI
19. "So let’s wrap up. If we want to ensure that our market research is actionable, then we need to:
Time its arrival
Study the right questions
Ask those questions in a way that provides action-oriented answers"
https://kellblog.com/2023/02/14/the-keys-to-making-market-research-actionable-part-ii
20. "Now the good news for Ukraine in this coming mess, is that the Russians still don’t seem to be able to patiently assemble well-trained and supported assault forces. Instead, they seem to be feeding troops into combat piecemeal up and down the line as they become available. This was similar to what they did in the Donbas earlier in the war, drip-feeding forces as they arrived.
So until Ukraine gets access to all the new NATO weapons, and can launch operations against Russian logistics and front line forces simultaneously, its probably not a bad thing that the Russians do the attacking. It wont be pretty, and Im sure the same chorus that went nuts over the suppposedly great Popasna breakthrough or the fall of the strategic fortress city of Soledar will continue their bleatings.
However, keep the aid flowing to Ukraine, increase their range and capabilities (yes ATACMS would be the ultimate) and the war is still heading strategically in the direction of Ukrainian success."
https://phillipspobrien.substack.com/p/weekend-update-14
21. Learning from investing vets. This is really invaluable. Surviving cycles.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1N3POLPxYlY&t=90s
22. "Incidentally, it’s hilarious to me that something so catastrophic (100% capital loss for all investors) is almost celebrated in the VC world. As if a zero-recovery outcome is acceptable, at all for any purpose in any scenario for investment, rationalized by the dartboard-portfolio mentality of “well we’ll have a bunch of zeroes in the book but we’ll also find the next Google!” O.K."
And then the SaaS business came along. Revisiting the 2020-2022 period of excess in public markets, several phenomena informed professional investment decision-making, combined with markedly higher interest rates, that contributed to the eventual collapse of the Unprofitable Tech Company (“UTC” as a catchall for anything that traded on a EV/S or EV/GP multiple in 2021)."
https://variances.substack.com/p/revisiting-unprofitable-businesses
23. Sounds about right.
“We expect there’s going to be an increasing number of zombie VCs; VCs that are still existing because they need to manage the investment they did from their previous fund but are incapable of raising their next fund,” Maelle Gavet, CEO of the global entrepreneur network Techstars, told CNBC.
“That number could be as high as up to 50% of VCs in the next few years, that are just not going to be able to raise their next fund,” she added."
24. His messaging can be bombastic and too certain but there is alot of good research here. De-globalization is happening.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pw9piPgOPeY
25. "Anecdotally, LP’s are really annoyed by all these data points and indicators showing how atrocious venture capital is as an asset class. And with rising rates, LP’s will definitely choose to pause or pull back the percentage of allocation they’re dedicating to venture. With the risk-free rate of return going up 225 basis points last year, and not projected to go down anytime soon, LP’s can sit on the sidelines and wait it out until better times come around.
At the end of the day, a lot of the issue here is with venture itself. VC’s are trained to think about power laws—the fact that most of your fund will be returned by 1 or a few investments. That has created a sort of power law effect in venture capital as well; 31% of funds between 05 & 2015 have a IRR above 20%, and the top 10% returned 35%+ IRR.
Over time, LP’s will start holding out for allocation into the best performing funds, and nothing else. And over time, that’ll cause a lot of funds to evaporate."
https://workweek.com/2023/02/17/lps-are-pissed-off-rightfully-so