Finding Your Why: The Hard Secret to Surviving

I’ll admit these last few years have been tough mentally. The beginning of 2023 was especially hard as my relationship with my teenage daughter and wife really deteriorated. I had a few days of really tough mornings getting up, which does not happen often. Frustration, deep sadness, lethargy and not a bit of rage and crazy thoughts. 

I think a big part of this is my feeling of “what’s the point?” When I was a single person it was all about me and rising through the business world, making money. This is as Simon Sinek says: my “Why.” My purpose and mission. 

But that mission obviously changes when you become a father and taking care of your family becomes your new purpose and mission. It’s an incredible motivator to do the things you don’t want to do because you have no choice. But also because you want to. You want to make yourself better and accumulate material things to provide an amazing life for them. You have a legacy now to nurture. 

This is also why as a VC investor we try to fund mission-oriented founders because they have a “why” that motivates them to grind and push through the inevitable soul crushing stress and problems that inevitably arise. 

All humans who aren’t sociopaths are motivated by serving a good cause. That’s why people become revolutionaries or join religions or cults. We want to believe in something bigger than ourselves. It’s how social movements get started. Humans need to believe in something, sometimes anything. We need to believe in a better future for ourselves and our families. Perhaps this is why so many people feel despair or lack hope because of the lack of “why”. 

It’s going to get ugly out there. So take the time to figure out your “Why” and this will give you a fighting chance to get through this ugly mess. Our lives need to count for something even in our short time in this world. That we did our part and left something better after us.

Keeping Promises To Yourself: Doing Hard Things To Make Yourself More Powerful and Your Life Better

For anyone into self improvement space and personal development, you probably have heard of Andrew Huberman and David Goggins. Andrew Huberman is one of the top educators and social media influencers in the biohacking space and David Goggins is a best selling author and motivational speaker who is a former Navy SEAL, war vet and record breaking endurance athlete. How awesome was it that they came together to do a podcast episode together. Its a long one over 2 and half hours but it was really good. The title is “David Goggins: How to Build Immense Inner Strength” and can be found here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nDLb8_wgX50

There is a specific section I call attention to and it is potentially life changing. Goggins talks about doing hard things. Goggins says: “What it takes is a discipline that no one can even understand. Everyone has the ability to do it but they just don’t want to. They just want to keep asking questions and keep going to seminars. And the greatness is right in you. 

Hard work looks horrible. It’s not motivating. It’s not motivating at all. It ain’t like Rocky round 14 where he gets knocked down and goes like this to Apollo Creed. Looks like a man stuck in a f–king dungeon. And there is no F–king way out. But you have the f–king key. But you refuse to use it.”

Huberman mentions the Anterior Mid-Cingulate Cortex showing neuroscience behind why Goggins and the peak performers in life get. “Most people don’t know this but there is a brain structure called the anterior mid-cingulate cortex. But what’s interesting about this brain area is that there is now a lot of data in humans, not mouse studies, showing that when people do something they don’t want to do like add 3 hours of exercise per day or per week. Or when people who are trying to diet and lose weight resist eating something. When people do anything they don’t want to do, it’s not about adding more work. It’s about adding more work that you don’t want to do. This brain area gets bigger. 

Now here’s what’s especially interesting about this brain area to me. The mid-cingulate cortex is smaller in obese people. It gets bigger when they diet. It’s larger in athletes. It’s especially large or grows larger in people that see themselves as challenged and overcome some challenge. 

And in people that live a very long time, this area keeps its size. In many ways, scientists are starting to think of the anterior mid-cingulate cortex not just as one of the seats of willpower but perhaps actually the seat of the will to live.

And all the data point to the fact that we can build this area up. But that as quickly as we build it up, if we don’t continue to invest in things that are hard for us, that we don’t want to do, it shrinks, it’s what feels Goggin-esque to me.”

So what is the whole point of this? The insight for me is that pain leads to growth. Challenges, tackling hard problems, doing uncomfortable things. We were kind of forced to do this growing up, going to school, trying to figure out our place in the world. Learning and growing. 

But as adults so many of us go into autopilot once we meet some level of comfort. We hang out with the same people, do the same job/work, we never challenge ourselves. We avoid pain and discomfort and we don’t do the things we know that are good for us. If Huberman and Goggins are right, most people in the modern western world are just zombies going through the motions of life.  It reminds me of the Benjamin Franklin quote “Some people die at 25 and aren’t buried until 75.”

I’ve kind of embraced this attitude of doing hard things subconsciously through the career path I’ve followed and incorporating travel but I’d argue it’s probably not enough. And perhaps actually useless as I enjoy travel and doing overseas business, so it does not grow my anterior mid-cingulate cortex. 

I absolutely need to do more of the harder things like exercising more. I need to spend more time in nature and do hard hikes. I need to train harder in my MMA and Muay Thai and tactical shooting, things that do not come natural to me. I need to deal with my family issues at home, both being more patient and also confronting my teenage kid. I need to put myself more out there and show vulnerability as I am probably a bit too emotionless. So the point: Life is hard, it’s not supposed to be easy. Choose your hard. DO MORE HARD THINGS IN YOUR LIFE!

Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads February 9th, 2025

"Let us love winter, for it is the spring of genius."- Pietro Aretino

1. "AI is a collection of technologies, it isn’t just one thing, and that can make it confusing to discuss AI.

AI is causing major market dislocations. OpenAI could be to some new company what Myspace was to Facebook.

AI is moving away from SaaS metrics. Many investors have begun writing about this but, we are seeing more per-unit-of-work pricing, or similar models, not as much per-seat-per-month. When revenue isn’t a recurring flat fee, it does fit mental models of investing if you are comparing it to SaaS.

AI changes corporate strategy. Data is now a more important asset than ever before. Labeling data may be a workflow you need. Value chains are being re-shaped by AI.

AI companies can scale faster, with fewer employees

AI may not have the zero marginal cost we are used to in tech. With the rise of test-time compute and other inference related costs, marginal costs could be more variable and use case driven."

https://investinginai.substack.com/p/the-six-mental-models-for-ai-investing

2. "First, we should expect the price of attention to continue to rise. In a world of rising noise — with far more products, services, bots, and content than humans to consume them — we should expect the price of attention to continue to rise, and only be limited by the lowest sustainable margins of those that need to purchase it.

Second, we should mark up the value of the attention we already have. It is obvious that one’s existing customers are their most valuable customers. But have you increasedthe value you ascribe to them? The data above suggests one’s cost to re-acquire them has gone up 2-3x over the past five years.

Third, we should expect the value of curation to rise. In a world of infinite options, sometimes the only way to find a good solution is to search in a limited field. Using the internet to find a good restaurant in a city is much harder than asking a trusted friend who lives there. So, too, with just about everything. Curators will increasingly direct attention."

https://phronesisfund.substack.com/p/the-price-of-attention

3. "The vibe shift we’re seeing now taps into a deeper framework that I’ve written about often; I mean the creatures and machines framework. An epic clash is coming. It’s between those, on the one hand, who want to accelerate the ongoing technology revolution, and those who want to slam on the brakes.

The accelerationist ultras want new technologies to remodel the world around us and even, in the end, we humans ourselves; according to them it is our destiny is to merge with the machines. Meanwhile, the decelerationists say we must protect ourselves against the rabid form of technological modernity we have created; one that wants to eat everything familiar about human modes of living and being.

I believe that soon enough that conflict will be at the heart of our politics. What’s happening with Musk and Trump is only the first act in a much longer play."

https://www.newworldsamehumans.xyz/p/is-this-really-happening

4. "The railroad and the internet bubble capital formation had multiple aspects. This current capital cycle also has a few specific capital formation buckets. I can define them simplistically as Compute and Networking, Power, and Data Centers. It’s funny how that echoes the past because Railroads were Railroads and Land, and the Internet was the Internet and Telecom.

In the case of AI, I think it will be power and datacenters that will be the real overbuilder. This overbuilding will worsen because there’s a significant lag between the two markets. The compute and networking cycle is much more responsive, so I think the demand lead time to supply response is a ~12-month response. 

The problem is that power and data centers have a much slower reaction cycle. A datacenter takes months to years, and power takes years to add supply. The biggest opportunity is reshuffling power budgets because power will limit compute and networking this year. The datacenter and power part of the equation only really started to react to the market this past year (2024), and I think that is likely an indication that we will have some time before the capital cycle turns. 

But let’s use traditional semiconductor cycle logic. In this case, datacenter power is the golden screw. This is the critical piece that prevents the entire solution from being delivered, and since it’s the bottleneck, the heaviest overordering and lead times likely happen there."

https://www.fabricatedknowledge.com/p/capital-cycles-and-ai

5. This is such a fun tour of Chongqing, China. One of the must see cities in the world (assuming you are allowed to go to China).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v5PgqFybk0Y

6. The most important banker in America and arguably the world.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2REdbQasKX4

7. Such an impressive city here. Chongqing. Really blown away by the place & its the 7th video I've watched of this place. I will visit one day.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IbnSuon2nrI

8. TIP (Turkistan Islamic Party) of Uyghurs, war vets in Syria coming for China (understandably too).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8DRzaZiI8_Q

9. "But as Bench’s situation got more dire the National Bank of Canada, which had taken over a considerably expanded credit facility, declined to make concessions to the company even though executives and the board were in the middle of trying to sell the company. Bench worried that the bank’s stance would mean it wouldn’t be able to make payroll. (Board members can be held personally liable if employees aren’t paid.) 

On December 27, 2024, Bench told its roughly 12,000 customers, without any advance notice, that the business was shuttering, leaving them without a bookkeeper. More than 450 Bench employees lost their jobs. 

That same day, Crosby took to X and LinkedIn to share his story.

Ironically, his post — or the angry posts from customers — may have helped

Bench to find a buyer. The publicity attracted a number of potential acquirers. 

Bench’s board, led by Hinkfuss, pushed to get a deal done.

Finally, Employer. com agreed to take over Bench’s business, onboarding customer accounts and hiring some of the company’s employees. 

Investors will never recoup anywhere close to the more than $100 million Bench raised in equity and debt in its lifetime. 

According to a bankruptcy filing for 10Sheet Services Inc., Bench’s corporate entity, the company filed for bankruptcy with $550,000 cash on hand and $48 million in total liabilities.

Sources tell me Employer. com is paying just over $13 million to buy what remains of Bench."

https://www.newcomer.co/p/the-limits-of-founder-friendly-what

10. An alternative perspective on geopolitics, a bit too tin foil hat for me but good to look at contrarian views.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MvLjdIwRBtI

11. "These institutions - financial, judicial, educational, religious, cultural - were designed to serve a nation whose people grew up believing in their value. The last High saw value in capitalism at all costs and controlling culture to avoid decadence and "incorrect" thought. It was racist, sexist, and classist but, in the end, it gave us the highway system, strong unions, and the Internet. Besides that, I ask you, what have the Romans ever given us?

What is happening now, then, is that the last beneficiaries of the last High - the people who have completely hijacked old media, old economics, and the old ideas of rule of law - are exposing the seismic cracks in the system. The rich have abandoned those they once sought to "serve" through charitable organizations, and the tech nerds are looking around and saying that Mars and Bitcoin would be a lot cooler right about now.

My friend Dave Troy sees all of this as a plot to destabilize Western democracies and help bring about the rise of China, Russia, and India as de facto global powers. He's probably right, but I would also argue that the Strauss-Howe theory is simply expanding its borders to the rest of the world. That said, we are absolutely seeing a group of technocrats and techno-utopianists who are taking advantage of massive unrest and uncertainty to make unfathomably large sums of money."

https://keepgoingpod.com/p/everything-is-broken-right-on-schedule

12. Chengdu. 4th largest city in China and it's very impressive.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mUbizFj0eFg

13. These cityscapes blow me away. SO impressive.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Qkdrog96gkg

14. "But let me put it this way: As the world improves, our threshold for complaining drops.

In the absence of big problems, people shift their worries to smaller ones. In the absence of small problems, they focus on petty or even imaginary ones.

Most people – and definitely society as a whole – seem to have a minimum level of stress. They will never be fully at ease because after solving every problem the gaze of their anxiety shifts to the next problem, no matter how trivial it is relative to previous ones.

Free from stressing about where their next meal will come from, worry shifts to, say, a politician being rude. Relieved of the trauma of war, stress shifts to whether someone’s language is offensive, or whether the stock market is overvalued."

https://collabfund.com/blog/minimum-levels-of-stress/

15. Very good discussion on Re-industrialization of America and politics.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DaF4M6mrFNE

16. Great debate on manufacturing and industrial policy between economists.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1H8jweWyUb0

17. "The evolution of media, with the rise of the creator economy and concepts like Kevin Kelly’s "1,000 True Fans”, has brought to the mainstream an understanding that hyper-personalization of almost anything is possible.

Whatever interest you may have, there are almost certain to be others online with that exact same interest. Given that we’ve embraced this in so many aspects of our lives, it makes perfect sense that founders are taking advantage of this concept in how they think about community.

The best founders are no longer content with founder communities where the only thing they have in common is the city they live in.

The best founders aren’t even content to be part of generalist sub-communities within their geography (e.g. local CTO meetups).

Instead, the best founders today are actively seeking out other founders who are just like them, regardless of where in the world they might be.

They’re seeking communities of founders who are specifically building B2B infrastructure software targeting mid-market companies in regulated industries.

They’re seeking communities of founders who are specifically building PLG-driven open source projects targeting Node.js developers. And so on.

And they’re finding them."

https://chrisneumann.com/archives/where-are-the-builders

18. "That said, Eddie gives us one useful piece of advice: Make the hard work as easy as possible.

“I always think, how can I build my life around whatever challenge I’m taking on, or goal I’ve set myself. Sure, it’s a bit of commitment, but it’s a commitment to making my life easier. Whenever I take on a challenge, there are always tough moments and plenty of hard work. But I always say, make the hard work as easy as possible.”

Pick what your main goal is and build your life around it. Try to make the job as easy as possible."

https://lifemathmoney.com/make-the-hard-work-as-easy-as-possible-eddie-halls-strongest-advice/

19. "There is only one chart that is dictating financial markets right now. You can watch it exclusively and essentially tell where markets are headed for the next week or two.

Global liquidity.

It really is that simple. Stanley Druckenmiller famously said “it’s liquidity that moves the market.” He is the GOAT for a reason."

https://pomp.substack.com/p/the-most-important-data-point-for

20. Strong case for the Israeli tech startup ecosystem even now.

https://startupstechvc.beehiiv.com/p/why-now-is-the-best-time-to-invest-in-israel

21. Net net: the CCP cannot be trusted.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5V4s89Eo4qg

22. "Just like in the Middle East, Ukraine and elsewhere, what we'll witness is another front in the struggle between two systems of governance. In that sense, the geopolitical conflicts around the world will likely be subordinated to the civil war shaping up in the United States, which could prove the central battle in the whole conflict. That civil war might not resemble the civil wars of the past with large armies fighting one another in fields and insurrections in cities. Instead, we'll likely see chaos, sabotage, assassinations and terrorism in the U.S. - but also in Europe and the U.K."

https://alexkrainer.substack.com/p/next-week-start-the-days-of-thunder

23. Good commentary and takes on what is going on tech and business culture now.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DRwx8_lcMzs

24. "But it basically all boils down to asymmetrically bad upside in hard truth telling.

Every company can either be a good reference or a bad reference, regardless of the ultimate outcome. So in an iterative game things very quickly become an exercise in long term reputation management rather than maximizing the value of a specific investment/business.

After all, the less a business is working, the less incentive you have to tell them the truth (the salvage value is going down). But the more it's working, the fewer hard truths you have to tell (and the less you want to be naysayer).

These strong disincentives for honesty are why most VCs are so profoundly useless to the companies they back."

https://99d.substack.com/p/the-hard-thing-about-hard-truths

25. Trump 2.0 with NATO.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pCXm0vpMaTE

26. "Biden here, probably unknowingly, brings up an important point: this is what’s called intra-elite conflict. This where the elites of a country factionalize into elites and counter-elites. There are two competing visions for the future of a country, and there is a zero-sum outcome, so if one faction of elites win, the other faction will necessarily lose. And this is important because historically, these intra-elite conflicts precede periods of state breakdown and civil war.

I’m not predicting that a civil war will happen. It’s a distinct possibility, and the more you read about the history of these conflicts, I think the more you will see that the United States is going down the same path as some of these revolutions and civil wars. And I know it’s popular to poo poo the concept of a civil war, but anyone who can dismiss the possibility outright should read more history because the similarities are shocking."

https://grayzoneresearch.substack.com/p/biden-foreshadows-us-intra-elite

27. “The age of chivalry is gone. That of sophisters, economists, and calculators has succeeded.” His line hits hard. Modern life shifts the emphasis from the nobility of the chivalric ideal to a much more small-souled concern with getting ahead. Dave Ramsey might be a really nice guy who has helped a lot of people (while also doing some damage, if I’m correct) but anyone who has built an empire on coin-counting is without a doubt an economist and a calculator. This is why I don’t join in the praise of him.

And Tate, despite being a delinquent or worse, captures a certain boldness that modern life aims to destroy in young men—with democratic propaganda, prescription medication, and a million other things. This boldness is dangerous, not just to the Regime but to everyone. You only look at Tate himself to see the downsides. But chivalry demands boldness, especially in deranged and confused times of crisis (like ours) when the action required by the moment might make a lot of people uncomfortable. There is no easy way out of the messes we have made."

https://thechivalryguild.substack.com/p/ramsey-and-tate

28. "But there's a simpler path to growing faster. A path most companies haven't explored nearly enough. Want to know what it is? 

Most of you could be growing faster if you just got clearer:

...About what you do.

...About how it works.

...About why it's valuable.

...About what people use before / instead of you.

...About how you save customers time / money.

...About what triggers people to buy what you sell.

...And about what life is like with + without you.

90%+ of companies out there haven’t done this work."

https://hellooperator.substack.com/p/clarity-as-strategy

29. Columbus, Ohio for the win. #Reindustrialize

https://trailruncapital.substack.com/p/columbus-ohio

30. "So, American criminals, even low-level criminals like drug dealers, are adapting to the changing American environment. Namely, as anarchotyranny has empowered them, they are getting organized, as shown by the drug dealer having a signal jammer and fake badge. Further, in getting organized and using new technology, they are mimicking the South African farm attackers who have caused so much chaos and suffering within South Africa.

That increasing level of organization and preparation amongst America’s criminal underclass is critical for law-abiding Americans of all sorts to understand because it shows things have changed and that we are headed in a much more dangerous direction."

https://www.theamericantribune.news/p/the-south-african-crystal-ball-signal

31. "A better definition: Love is giving witness to someone’s life. To notice them and their lived experience. My friend Rabbi Steve Leder said something that hit hard this week. Calling people and asking if you can help (what I was doing) is the wrong thing to do. The right thing? Just help. Pick up their dogs, drop off food, send a photo of the room in your house they can stay in, wire them cash. Don’t ask, do. Are there people in LA you love? Then give witness to their life, notice what would help. Don’t ask, just give witness, notice, and love them."

https://www.profgalloway.com/after-the-fires/

32. Geopolitical recession is a good description of where we are at right now.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nIaenz_ZQik

33. Probably good to know these next few years.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9JQLaf4QaOs

34. Good strong case for Crypto. Global macro at its finest. Always an interesting take. Not investing advice though.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0bJH2rklQsc

You Never Regret Working Out at the Gym: Good Life Advice

I recall an old colleague and friend Carl telling me: “You Never Regret Working Out.” It’s damn good advice. 

It’s easy going to the gym when you are in the mood, like at the beginning of the new year. New Year’s resolutions and all that. It’s when you don’t feel like it. There are always excuses. Too much work, family, bad weather or whatever. 

Actually the best time to go is when you don’t feel like it. Doing something when it’s hard. 

You have to do it. Even if it’s for 10 minutes. It’s a promise to yourself you should keep. 

I’ve had a lot of really bad days these years but something about your psychology changes after working out and hitting the weights. You just feel clear-headed. You feel better. 

So if you are in a bad mood, angry, sad, frustrated. Go hit the gym. My friend Carl is absolutely right here. It’s a very simple fix to turn around your mood and your day.

LifeSpan versus HealthSpan versus JoySpan: Great Concepts for Life Longevity

So I previously wrote about Blue zones and living longer. In other words, increasing your lifespan. 

But we need to be thinking about health span. It doesn’t matter how long you live if you can’t walk around, immobile or in pain. Life would suck pretty bad. 

That’s why I put so much stress on health being wealth. Healthspan=being healthy and being functional with any medication or disabilities. Can you be independent and mobile without the help of others? Do you have energy and mental capacity to still thrive? Which leads to the next concept tied into longevity: Joyspan. What is the amount of joy and happiness in your life? 

Buettner said: “For me, where that most comes alive is for the panegyris, these great all night parties where people from 14 to 94 are coming together and connecting socially and having fun. They are dancing all night long. But actually, an hour of running or an hour of dancing are about equal when it comes to caloric burn. 

But an hour of dancing is a blast. We’ve tended to associate exercise with suffering. If there is no pain there is no gain. But in Ikaria (blue zone), we’re learning that, actually can be joyful. They are laughing the whole time. Laughter is good for our arteries. It’s good for heart disease. The happiness is palpable. I think what Blue zones teach us is that longevity can be joyous. It doesn’t have to be a chore. And community, connection is the prescriptive to longevity.”

It totally makes sense to me. If you are happy you want to continue to have this feeling. Mix this with a good diet, active lifestyle, purpose/mission, curiosity and community no wonder you will have a higher likelihood for a longer life. 
We don’t think about joyspan enough. We should be doing things we find interesting and fun, being with those we care about and enjoy being with, having wonderful experiences. Sometimes even take time off your career and slow down to focus on what matters. So it’s really worth considering what Joyspan means to you personally and how to increase more of this in your life. 

I’ll let Dan Buettner finish this: “But at the end of the day, the big epiphany is that the same things that help us live a long, healthy life are the things that make life worth living.”

Sahil Bloom and Your True Wealth Score

There is a young influencer named Sahil Bloom that really came to the fore in 2021, started seeing all his posts and info all over the web. He was on the Partner track at a PE firm in California, living the life. But came to the realization that while he was doing well financially, every other aspect of his life was a mess. So made some big changes, quitting his job, moving back to Boston to be closer to his parents and starting a new career. He has the awesome and audacious goal of positively impacting a billion lives. Kind of makes my goal of doing the same for 10 million lives seem small, I really need to think bigger!

I became a fan of his work and have listened to numerous interviews with him as he has built out his social media empire and Personal Holding Company. But there was a recent interview he did that was particularly excellent which can be found here. Highly recommend it. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PC3LWGnhMyI

In this interview he talks about the various components of a good life. Time Wealth, Physical (Health) Wealth, Social Wealth, Mental Wealth & Financial Wealth. You have to look at your entire life from each of these measures. It’s the only way to create a truly fulfilling and valuable life. Most of us only look at Financial wealth side of things because that is the easiest thing to measure and what society seems to value. We only realize the mistake after we have lost all the other aspects, as I found out the hard way personally. 

A concept similar yet different to what Tai Lopez introduced before. But for some reason it only really sunk into me recently after hearing it here. Sahil simplifies this. These concepts sometimes take a while to absorb but when it hits, it hits. So I took the free test that he offers here: https://www.wealthscorequiz.com/. No surprise, it was enlightening. 

Scored pretty well on Time Wealth, Physical Wealth and Mental Health. My Financial wealth score was not super great although I suspect this is due to my own nagging financial insecurities that have plagued me my entire life. I had to go look at my finances to reassure myself and understand much of this due to the financial scarcity growing up as well as the natural human view of never having enough. 

Sahil mentions talking to many very well off people, whether millionaires, multimillionaires and even billionaires. When all of them are asked what is the number where you will feel like it will be enough, the answer is almost always 2-3X the number they have now. Human greed is eternal, so bear that in mind. 

But the worst score was my Social Wealth, which was pretty stark. And it makes sense as my family life is a mess. Plus I have not fully re-engaged with people in the post pandemic world. This will be a priority going into 2025. More coffees & lunches, more family time in SF, Vancouver and Taiwan. Hanging out with friends more. 

So for anyone interested in Sahil Bloom’s work, he is releasing a new book today, called “The Five Types of Wealth”. I pre-ordered it myself and think it will be super helpful for everyone as they rethink their lives. Also recommend taking the https://www.wealthscorequiz.com/, it is short and useful. Good luck out there!

Live to 100: Secrets of the Blue Zone show

I really enjoyed the Netflix documentary series as author Dan Buettner takes us on a tour of the Blue zones around the world like rural Okinawa, Sardinia, Ikaria Greece, Costa Rica, even Loma Linda in California among other places. Blue zones are defined as places where many people are able to live past 100 years of age. 

Yes, some of these blue zones have been discredited due to some of the long lives recorded being seen as fraud by relatives collecting the pensions of the deceased (my guess is specifically in Italy and Greece). Still plenty of stuff to learn here regardless. 

In Buettner’s words:

“Remarkably they all share the same common denominators. They all follow the same formula that produces the longest-lived people on the planet. These people live to 100 at the highest rates in the world. They’re living vibrant, active, happy lives, and perhaps the biggest take away is they live longer without trying. And their secrets could help every single one of us to get every good year we can get out of this body of ours.”

Some things I learned is that diet really matters. In Okinawa, they have more purple sweet potatoes in their diet because they are rich in carbs (good ones), fiber and plenty of antioxidants, more than blueberries (Blueberries are awesome btw & you should eat more of them). They have lots of legumes which are supposedly quite good for the body. Beans and legumes are good sources of a wide variety of fiber which keep inflammation in check and also good for your immune system. 

If you like bread like I do, then have sourdough which is better for you. Carbohydrates are fine if they are prepared right. Basically eat more beans, legumes, nuts, vegetables and fruits. Also use local grown (not store bought) raw honey for sweeteners instead of sugar.

Also Okinawan tofu is special because it has a higher concentration of good fat and protein compared to tofu elsewhere. Smaller diets a day of 2000 calories versus say 4000 calories in the USA because their foods are nutritionally dense unlike the crap we have. And they only eat to 80% full, so they aren’t totally stuffed. I should follow this but I love food too much.

The other key piece is that they are active. Strong core bodies, lower bodies and strong balance. They do gardening which keeps them busy. 1-2 hours a day of low intensity activity with a wide range of motion. Basic exercise. In Sardinia they correlated longevity to steepness of the villages of the blue zones. Basically, people walk everywhere and have active lives. They exercise regularly without knowing they are exercising. 

Building muscle mass when you are younger helps with everything in your health. Have you noticed how fit and clear minded both Arnold Schwarzenegger and Sly Stallone are at 77 and 78 respectively. 

Community also seems to matter. In Okinawa, there is the Moai where a bunch of people pool their money together so if something happens, there is cash to help them. But it turns into a community of friends who help each other. They sing, they dance together and talk over tea regularly. This phenomenon is the same in Greece and Sardinia where older people know everyone in their community. There are no retirement homes there and centenarians are respected for their wisdom, taken care of and surrounded by their family and extended family. As 101 year old Umeta-san said: “Laughter brings longevity.”

This is in contrast to the US or Canada where there is a loneliness epidemic. Human connection is important. This was what wrecked so many of us in 2020. Unfortunately many people did not come out of that isolation from the covid pandemic lockdowns until this last year. And it shows. People are not surprisingly very weird and angry these days, we see it in everyday life and especially online. 

And according to Dan Buettner, “loneliness can cost up to 15 years of life expectancy. Think about that. 15 years! There is no pill, no supplement, no blockbuster drug that could give us anywhere near 15 years.” So make some friends and get out there. Even for an introvert like me as much as I enjoy my books, podcasts and internet time, in 2020 isolation, it was only through the regular bi-weekly calls with my masterminds and crew, and that trip to Georgia that kept me sane. 

After going through terrible situations in World War 2, many of them understand how valuable life is. And they don’t take it for granted unlike the spoiled and entitled people in the West. I liked how Okinawans lived with purpose. They have a very clear WHY. Ikigai: which in the show is defined as “a kind of mission. A sense of purpose. I think Ikigai is the main factor of the spiritual health of centenarians. If we lose ikigai, we will die.” 

Apparently Okinawans do not have a word for retirement. They never stop working. Work is purpose and a puzzle. It keeps your mind engaged and active. This is why I’m lucky to stumble upon investing. It’s something I can keep doing for a long time. It is something I’ll do till the end of my life if I can. Something I’ve said many times. Or for the Adventists at Loma Linda as part of their religion, they volunteer. “Volunteering is a very counterintuitive route to health, but we know people who volunteer have better memories, better social connections. They even report higher levels of happiness. If you think, it always involves some physical activity, involves some sense of meaning because you’re focusing on somebody else other than just yourself.”

So many great lessons to improve your life and life longevity. It’s not just about living longer but living well. 

Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads February 2nd, 2025

"Winter is nature's sleep" by H. S. Jacobs

1. "Japanese CEOs begin to step out of their comfort zone and start to buy start-ups for future growth rather than just reply on inhouse R&D teams. One reason for US corporate dynamism is the aggressive use of `outside` innovation to supplement or improve or disrupt `inside` businesses – 90% of US start-up exists are acquisitions (while 90% of Japan start-up exits are IPOs).

Mark my words: Japan’s new generation of CEOs are taking risks, are ready to challenge the complacent business-as-usual mentality of their inside executive teams by looking outside. Japan’s next-Gen business leaders are keen to create a positive legacy, are not afraid to try and make 1+1 = 3 or 4."

https://japanoptimist.substack.com/p/japan-surprises-2025

2. This movie looks good. Done by ex-Royal Marine Commandos.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dvPf33bS0g8

3. Incredible write up on the amazing city and scene that is Austin, Texas.

"People don’t really move to Texas for glitz and glamor. 

As Justin Murphy once said to me, people historically moved to California in search of a fortune. This goes all the way back to the gold rush. But people moved to Texas for freedom. They wanted land and a free-living, don’t-tread-on-me lifestyle. These patterns persist today. People don’t come to Austin if accumulating wealth is their top priority. The people I know in San Francisco want money, the people I know in Los Angeles want fame, and the people I know in Texas want liberty and self-reliance (maybe that’s why so many dudes here are hardcore preppers who take jiu-jitsu lessons). 

The anti-government bent may also be why there are fewer cops here. Growing up in San Francisco, we were always worried about parking tickets, speed traps, and red light cameras. But it seems like there aren’t as many police officers in Austin, and therefore, not as much law enforcement on the roads.

Locals embody the mindset of a Texas rancher. When you work on a farm, you’re constrained by the limits of nature, such as the biology of your cattle and the physics of agriculture. Against the stereotype, Ranchers are some of the most curious people I’ve met down here. Eager to improve their yields, they balance a belief in progress with a hearty respect for proven methods. Like Austinites, they’re eager to experiment with new tactics, but ground their thinking in the wisdom of previous generations. 

Austin’s laptop class is different from San Francisco’s too. For starters, it’s cool to be ambitious in Austin but uncool to be too ambitious. The grindset is frowned upon. Some of the coffee shops don’t allow computers on Sundays, and people will scoff at you for skipping weekend social events to work. Austin entrepreneurs also care more about profit than growth. The people I know aren’t in a rush to build their company. They have a life to live and an income-to-effort ratio to maintain. Slow, steady, and sustainable is the name of the game (which makes it a tough place to be a venture capitalist). 

The most successful people I know are understated because it’s not cool to flaunt your wealth here. That said, a trusted friend insists that almost 100 billionaires will move here in the next decade, and these days, I’m seeing more and more private jets at the airport. Though they’ll call Austin their home base, they’ll leave town for the summers, just as snowbirds on the East Coast migrate to Florida in the winter.

Being in Austin lowers my ambitions. The city doesn’t inspire me to be great like San Francisco or New York. But what I lose in ambition, I gain in focus. The city’s relative slowness makes it easy to focus.

With all the big shakers coming to town, the level of ambition is going to rise, though it won’t reach the levels of San Francisco and New York."

https://perell.com/essay/whats-up-with-austin/

4. The end of global shipping? Will be watching this closely but signs point to the decline of shipping and the rise of de-globalization.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CfI1BQo0ZzE

5. "If you explore his filmography, it’s hard to necessarily pin down a cohesive through line. In a tight five-year window, McAvoy followed up his performance in The Last King of Scotland (2006) with Atonement (2007), Gnomeo & Juliet (2011), and X-Men: First-Class (2011). The first film has been lauded as one of the best of his career. Gnomeo & Juliet was a smashing success in offering Shakespeare to children through a comedic lens (as evidenced by its $200-million worldwide profit on a $36-million budget). And X-Men: First-Class helped pave the way for a superhero genre in desperate need of emotional weight.

Perhaps the only commonality between the three films is that they offered McAvoy what he sought out when he signed on for Speak No Evil: a decisive pivot from what audiences had come to expect from him. It’s not that he was strategically avoiding being typecast. Rather, he simply gravitated towards whichever project allowed him to unearth new elements as an actor. The result has been an eclectic body of work that reflects his own meandering curiosity."

https://sharpmagazine.com/2024/10/02/james-mcavoy-interview-speak-no-evil-2024/

6. "Did I change my mind from my last essay? Kinda. Maybe the Trump dump occurred from mid-Dec until the 2024 year-end instead of mid-Jan 2025. Does that mean I’m sometimes a shitty prognosticator of the future? Yep, but at least I ingest new information and opinions and change them before they result in significant losses or missed opportunities.

That is why this game of investing is intellectually engaging. Imagine you made a hole-in-one every time you hit a golf ball, sunk every three-point shot taken in basketball or off the break, and always pocketed every ball playing billiards. Life would be excruciatingly dull."

https://cryptohayes.substack.com/p/sasa

7. Sober conversation on reality and realignment of maritime shipping from an expert here.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9nBqm_iXDdA

8. "As I step into 2025, I feel the weight of 2024 behind me, less like a burden and more like the imprint of a journey that’s changed me. The year wasn’t kind, but it was honest, relentless in its demands, and strangely generous in its lessons. If 2024 were a storm, it wasn’t just the kind that passes, it was the kind that reshapes the landscape, leaving behind a different terrain, unfamiliar but somehow right.

There’s something about facing a year like that. It strips away illusions. You can’t outrun your own accountability. Whatever happened, every stumble, every triumph, it carries your signature. Blame, I’ve learned, is just procrastination in disguise. And procrastination is a thief, stealing the clarity that comes from admitting, This was mine to carry. This is mine to fix."

https://2lr.substack.com/p/hello-2025-nice-to-meet-you

9. Valuable conversation on global macro and where the world is going. Important. Buy Gold. #geopolitics

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HPG9qxXdwlY

10. Good to understand as we start 2025. Massive impacts for economies and politics around the world.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U509hHthip8

11. It's gonna be a rough next 4 years around the world. Geopolitical survey.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bYSqV105B2U

12. Why is Greenland strategically important. Chokepoint to the arctic.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YtGh1kFqIoc

13. Sober assessment of what is happening with the Russo-Ukrainian war and possible settlement.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xcuGEX9yatk

14. "A stable Ukrainian deterrence posture is meaningless if it fails to achieve its primary purpose: deterring future Russian aggression.

Stability cannot, therefore, be seen as an end in itself. This does not mean Ukraine should be pushed into recklessness, but the right solution clearly lies somewhere in between. Proposed deterrence strategies that argue explicitly for stability at the expense of other factors are conceptually too one-dimensional to meet this demand and are likely unhelpful. As Thomas Schelling famously and correctly argued, there is stability in instability."

https://missilematters.substack.com/p/how-to-enable-and-effective-future

15. "This is the next crisis in Europe, already, the next Eurozone crisis.

And if, as Kagan argues, that a Ukrainian collapse would be a catastrophic defeat for Trump, how would he respond? Therein I have no doubt that he would in fact send US troops to occupy Greenland and/or the Panama Canal, using gunboat diplomacy to detract from his own, obvious and enormous failings.

One obvious solution for Europe is to boost cooperation with the other great European military power - Türkiye. Türkiye has the largest military in NATO, after the U.S., and a now substantial and rapidly improving military industrial complex.

In drone technology, thru Baykar, et al, Türkiye has the technological lead in Europe - with its prowess demonstrated in recent conflicts in Nagorny Karabakh, Ukraine and Syria. The UK, and Europe need to wake up and boost cooperation with Türkiye, and within Europe, or face defeat by Moscow. The situation is that serious and stark now."

https://timothyash.substack.com/p/europe-should-be-scared

16. "I used to advise founders that the safest path was to raise money from a fund where the person sponsoring your deal was either the firm's founder or the most senior person actively making new investments, as those folks were the most likely to be there for the long term. In this environment, I’m not sure that advice is as useful as it once was."

https://chudson.substack.com/p/four-reasons-people-leave-venture

17. "These startups raised over-inflated Pre-Seed rounds — typically $3 - 5M or more — in buzzy areas that are now out-of-vogue. To the founders’ credit, many of them drastically cut burn when interest rates shifted, allowing them to ensure 36 months of runway or more. Sounds ideal, right? But what we’re seeing with many of these companies is something quite different.

As time passed, the early enthusiasm of many of these companies was replaced with listlessness. Their early employees moved on, their investors disengaged and, without any pressing existential threat, motivation or external oversight, they simply continue to exist (many with effectively infinite runway). Almost every VC that was active in 2021-22 has multiple such companies in their portfolio.

The outliers will continue to make progress and a few may ultimately see success. Some of the founders will eventually decide to shutter their company and potentially return some amount of capital to investors in order to move on. But the rest of these companies — with no real product, limited forward progress and no staff to be “aqui-hired” — will be a new species of startup walking dead."

https://chrisneumann.com/archives/things-i-think-i-think-q4-2024

18. A more optimistic assessment of the Russo-Ukrainian war. Hope he is right.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W3XK5a5ZV9g

19. How American imperialism works, very different than European ones. A geographical perspective.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=At74k92vS10

20. Always a great episode. What's up in Silicon Valley.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5ZjrFiLgCCc&t=860s

21. "Because when you relinquish all visibility, responsibility, and accountability of your own or your family's finances to someone else, whether it’s your partner, spouse, attorney, or accountant, you are placing a heck of a lot of trust elsewhere that your personal wealth and legacy are being managed accordingly.

So, please, please, man or woman, I encourage you to communicate, question, ask, and discuss everything: trusts (revocable/irrevocable), wills, titles, deeds, lease agreements, retirement accounts, businesses, business holdings, and checking and savings accounts."

https://shindy.substack.com/p/trappings-wealth

22. "While the aesthetics of the era were superb, so were the opportunities for adventure for those who couldn’t or wouldn’t spend their days on horseback. In an era without the instant communication of the telegraph or phone, sail-power rather than steam-power, and Western military equipment being without par, adventurers could travel the globe and reap great fortunes. 

Courtney Selous and Cecil Rhodes tromped across southern Africa and settled it, building communities in Rhodesia and South Africa that lasted until Cold War America, Britain, and the communist bloc destroyed them. Sir James Brooke, tired of country house life, traveled to Borneo and conquered the local pirates, becoming a local ruler known as the “White Rajah” and ruling for decades. In America, similarly, Tennesseean gentleman William Walker grew tired of city life and conquered Nicaragua. A few years later, South Carolina gentleman Wade Hampton III was able to, out of his landed revenue and the wealth of similar magnates, raise the Hampton Legion to fight in the War Between the States.

It was, in short, an era with great men and without much bureaucracy. The countryside was dotted with beautiful homes and governed by ancient traditions. The towns and villages were built up and invested in by local magnates, not local committees and bureaucratic petty tyrants, as is now the case, and those with a sense of adventure could go abroad and attempt to do as they pleased without worrying about the finger-wagging of an HR harridan chasing them around the world."

https://www.theamericantribune.news/p/the-death-of-the-gentleman-and-the

23. African century is turning into one of chaos and war. Sad and all due to weakness in the West.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hdwlfo_wfEI

24. Geopolitical risks for 2025, areas to watch in the rest of year.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qmg__GDkFTc&t=464s

25. Japan is rapidly re-arming and rightfully as they face threats from China, North Korea & Russia.

Peace is great but pacifists there have not realized how dangerous the world has become in the last few years.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZknEU38CDtE&t=15s

26. Lots of young people from China moving to Thailand. It's the super wealthy who move to Singapore, Australia, Canada. So it’s the Chinese in Thailand that are the gauge of what is really happening.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oIDsvIQ0UvM

27. "It is notable that Japan’s home-grown semiconductor leaders have fared far better than Kioxia over the past decade or so. Whether at Rapidus, the TSMC plant in Kyushu or at Renesas, the “home team”‘has shown that Japanese engineering talent coupled with sustained capital investment and foreign engineering (as opposed to financial) talent can succeed in the critical task of rebuilding our collective techno-industrial base. As Germany's failures have shown, this is not a simple task.

Japan can only hope that the incoming Trump administration takes time to read Secretary of State nominee Marco Rubio's latest book, Decades of Decadence. If Mr. Trump is serious about reinvigorating America's industrial base, strengthening its alliances with like-minded partners, and supporting middle-class jobs rather than those of financial elites whose vested interests are often aligned with our adversaries, then he will reverse the Biden decision at Nippon Steel and limit the damage that financial engineers can inflict on our common prosperity."

https://japanoptimist.substack.com/p/guest-contribution-barbarians-at

28. Very impressive megacity: Chongqing in China. Spectacular place.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p49QRxO_n2c

29. The best takes on technology and Silicon Valley from two of the best investors in the business.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yPD1qEbeyac

30. More on Chongqing, 36M population mega city in China. I do have a problem with this guy's complete & decided blindness to politics (and probably getting paid by CCP to film in Xinjiang).

Still fascinating city overview.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vNR9QjmhH00

31. Fascinated by this city.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=celhrcTI938

32. "Well, sorry guys, but VCs don’t owe you a goddamn thing—and especially not after they’ve already met with you. That was the time they had for you. They offered a meeting—no more and no less.

The fact that you didn’t spend the last few minutes of the meeting asking for specific feedback and posing the question of whether or not the VC was going to move this forward as a champion of the deal or at least whether they wanted to schedule a next call is your failure. When you’ve got any kind of a lead—be it for selling your product or selling your equity—and you let them go with no scheduled next step, you risk never speaking to them again.

That’s your problem, not theirs."

https://www.thisisgoingtobebig.com/blog/2025/1/13/vcs-dont-owe-you-a-response-or-a-follow-up

33. A great 3 day guide to Chongqing. One day.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nTvuPv2SiBI

34. Incredible interview. I found myself stopping this frequently to think about some of the suggestions or ideas that came up. All about personal development.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eeU1fNZ2pZA

Young and Dangerous: The Challenger Effect

During the mid-90s, there was a series of Hong Kong studio movies chronicling the rise of a group of young Triad gangsters in the Hong Kong underworld. The actors were incredibly good looking and stylish and really romanticized that life a bit too much I would say. I watched this series religiously and it was how I learned mandarin Chinese, by reading the English subtitles but listening to the Chinese. It also explained why my crap Chinese sounded a bit too much like a young hood as my Taiwanese cousins complained to me. 

But why I mention this, goes back to the title. Young and dangerous. Progress, innovation and change happens due to the youth. As German physicist Max Planck said: “Science advances one funeral at a time.”  They question and they challenge. Think about really young children below the age of 10 who keep asking “why, why, why?” They look at the world with fresh eyes. Naivety can be powerful. One other advantage is they have brand new perspectives. Maybe even more importantly, they also have plenty of energy and vitality. An ability to endure the inevitable pain. 

We see this in Silicon Valley which is built on new entrepreneurs and founders who question the status quo. People who ask the hard questions. Who find new fast growing niches while the incumbents stumble around in comfort and complacency trying to protect their cash cows. 

We see this on the negative front on the growing crime in Europe and USA, as most criminals committing crimes tend to be young men with hormones coursing through their brains and an inability to think clearly. But also nothing to lose and a willingness to burn down everything around them. 

We also see this at the geopolitical level. A still strong but aging USA-led Western World order being challenged by vigorous new (and old) players in China, Russia, Iran and others of the BRICS. It’s easy to see how the gerontocracy and old political class in the West are relying on old tools, tactics and strategies that have worked so well in the past but are declining in effectiveness versus the innovative hybrid approach the new Axis powers are using. It does seem like the West is just plain tired, weary and slow, unable to keep up to the challenges being presented. Death by a thousand cuts. 

You can trace all the forms of revolutions in history to be driven by iconoclasts and young people. Who have only energy and are hopeful for a new order with no stakes in the present order. Opposed by people bound by old ideas, customs and traditions that might be out of date.

It’s so easy to get set in your ways, especially if you have been successful. Experience is very valuable but you end up relying on habits and tools that got you to where you are. And in a world of technological, societal and big geopolitical shifts, they may no longer be relevant or useful. 

This is a great reminder that if you don’t rejuvenate your thinking, to challenge yourself, you will get left behind. So go hang out with young people, or listen or track what your kids or grandkids are doing. Watch and read different kinds of media and books. Get out of your filter bubble and get alternative views that challenge your beliefs. And even if you are older, keep doing hard things to take you out of any comfort zone. Comfort is death literally and figuratively.  

Be the Difference Maker

Everyone says television is damaging. That it is propaganda, a distraction and its crack for your brain. I get it. But I think it’s what you watch, how you interpret it and how you use it. I still do watch some television but I try to curate what I watch and I try to filter and think about what I watch. I squeeze lessons and whatever positive from it and know that most of it’s mainly fiction. 

But there are so many great comments, observations that provide insight and inspiration. I’ve always loved “Billions” and the easily quotable deca-billionaire hedge funder Bobby Axelrod. Or ruthless yet kind cowboy tycoon John Dutton of the Yellowstone series fame. But the series I’ve written about before, Special Ops: Lioness, is especially good. There is this one scene: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JIqW2-_GiaE, where one of the main characters is recruited. It’s so good. 

Her commander tells her: “We are the strong. We protect the weak. We are merciless in that endeavor. Is that an endeavor you wish to pursue?

There’s 1.4 million active duty personnel in the Armed Forces. They all do their part. But there is not a thousand among them that we can call on to make a difference. I think you could be one of those few. But it means walking away from the life you lived up to this point, and never looking back. That life is over.” 

I’ve been thinking about this all continuously. I read this every day. I realized how blind and weak I was. And because of this, how I let my family down in 2020 and probably before that too. I was so caught up in the rat race, focusing on the wrong things. I forgot my true mission. When the storm came in 2020, I was rekt because of my weakness, and this also rekt my family. What a painful wake up call. 

It’s been a hard road for the last 4 years trying to pick up the pieces and rebuild. Rebuilding myself, my health, my family, my business. Deeply focused on getting smarter and especially getting strong mentally, physically and financially. And it seems to be working bit by bit. 

And it only got better when I understood reality and ignored the societal propaganda. Forgive me for sounding like Andrew Tate, but as a man, your goal is not to be happy. Women and children should focus on being happy. Your goal is to be useful. Your job is to do the hard things everyday and enable their happiness and make them happy. That is it. 

So this is your regular reminder on finding your true purpose, doing hard Sh-t, getting really strong and fit, getting rich and capable so you can be the difference maker in your family and community. You owe them that. You owe yourself too. BE THE DIFFERENCE MAKER. Now get back to work!!

The World is a Mirror: You Hate in Others What You Hate in Yourself

I was randomly watching an episode of “The Property Brothers”, a show about twins who help families renovate, sell and buy a new house. I had a visceral reaction to the couple in this one episode. The father was cheap, a whiner and super negative while the wife was a demanding individual with zero sense of money and taste. 

I especially hated the husband and I quickly realized it was because it reminded me of the old me, the prior to 2020 me. The scarcity mindset and negative attitude. An inability to handle stress and high pressure situations and setbacks. 

I also hated the guy's intense focus on saving money to the detriment of the mental health of his family. And to the point of trying to save money that he even did his own home repairs that damaged the house and put his family and home at fire risk just to save a few bucks. Short sighted. And his unwillingness to be flexible and figure out new creative ways of getting what he wanted. I mean you can’t find a way to make an additional $60 bucks a month for the mortgage for your dream house?? And you live in America which is full of opportunities??

And even worse he was a complainer and never took responsibility for anything. He would blame others when things did not go smoothly. 

He also never showed an ounce of gratitude when the Property brothers successfully sold their house for above asking price and got a deal for them in their new house. The dad was a complete loser who will go nowhere in life. 

Most people are like that dad. I was like that dad and I am still angry at myself for living my life like that for so long. Think of what I would have accomplished by now if I had figured this out earlier. I was my own worst enemy because of this mindset. 

But the point about this is that your reactions to people and situations are a mirror to yourself. You hate certain people and situations because they reflect your own values. Or more likely they reflect the things you hate in yourself. 

Understand this, step back and try to examine these feelings a bit more and maybe you will have a chance to fix it.

Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads January 26th, 2025

Be at war with your vices, at peace with your neighbors, and let every new year find you a better man--Benjamin Franklin 

1. A deeply philosophical conversation on AI and society.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Un5EHASTpJI

2. "One of Kahneman and Tversky’s earliest insights was the simple observation that we feel the pain of loss more intensely than the pleasure of profit. It’s irrational to an economist, but we put more value on not losing $100 than we do on gaining $100.

We also have a skewed perception of probable gains and losses: We overestimate the likelihood of unlikely things. Insurance is a profitable business because people would rather suffer a series of guaranteed small losses (premiums) than risk a single but unlikely catastrophic loss. The healthy profit margins of insurance companies reflect our tendency to overestimate the likelihood of calamities. Overestimating an unlikely outcome is also the secret behind the lotto, which offers terrible odds. Some examples of how this has influenced my actions. (Note: I am not claiming these are the right way to put Kahneman’s insights to use, just my way.) What I’ve done:

I actively limit the number of decisions I have to make to preserve neuron power for the key ones. I have other people order for me at restaurants; I have a uniform for work/working out, wearing the same thing every day, and someone else buys my clothes. I delegate the majority of decisions at Prof G Media — I participate in a one-hour weekly editorial meeting and check in with my executive producer 2x per month on business issues. I have not planned a vacation in 20 years or put anything on my calendar in 10.

Despite having made more than 30 investments in private firms over the past decade, I review few documents, and rarely even sign them. (That’s all handled by counsel.) I try to reserve the largest possible cache of gray matter for research, thinking, storytelling (writing, presentations, etc.), and investment decisions. Over the next five years, I plan to outsource all investment decisions so I can focus on storytelling."

https://www.profgalloway.com/think-slow-2/

3. Some scary geopolitical takes. G7 going to C-Zero, everyone for themselves.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UebsZIt_XgI

4. I like this idea of "Custom made reality." A great discussion on having a good life.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jjvIjTJsLRo

5. Sartorial Shooter. Great advice for young men. Find challenges, get some life experiences, get tougher. Build yourself.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Gp4IoVPCxc

6. "Ultimately, regular entrepreneur communication helps everyone. It helps the entrepreneur get their thoughts, metrics, goals, and reflections down in one place. It helps partners, mentors, advisors, and investors stay up-to-date with both the good and the bad, as well as ways they can help and contribute to the mission.

And when the journey has come to a close, it provides a diary of sorts, documenting all the craziness and effort required to build something from nothing. Every entrepreneur should write a regular communication, and the best time to start is now."

https://davidcummings.org/2024/12/28/5-best-practices-for-effective-entrepreneur-updates/

7. "You’re always inside a system. The only question is: Which?"

https://oldbooksguy.substack.com/p/10-laws-of-big-systems

8. Really went down the rabbit hole of Jules, Sartorial Shooter. A true renaissance gentleman.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HpwKySPPDGM&t=5604s

9. Living the digital nomad life in Tbilisi. Good for him. Low cost structure and making & saving USD.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zwIUQfDiOsM

10. "That’s what creators do. They solve the infinite set of problems that life presents. Without problems, there is no creativity. Without problems, there is no purpose. Pain and suffering stem from the inability to understand problems and, more so, relinquishing your ability to solve them. A world without creativity and purpose is a world without life.

The mark of a sovereign individual is that they learn how to learn:

They have an evolving vision for the future

They build a meaningful project as one stepping stone

They identify problems that prevent progress

They generate ideas and test solutions

They become more efficient with time

They deposit their creation and knowledge

If valuable, they are rewarded by the monetary system of that society

If not valuable, they error correct until valuable

And lastly, they never, ever quit because someone else’s vision trumps their own.

Do it all. Write. Design. Market. Sell. Film. Code. Be the generalist you were born to be. Be the orchestrator of ideas. The governor of thought. AI is simply a tool that now allows you to learn and do all of these. Once it becomes your master, you lose.

Nobody can tell you what to do in the future. But has it ever been any different? We’re just talking in circles at this point. You’re looking for a quick fix as always and you know that the longest path is the quickest fix. The principles haven’t changed, you just haven’t taken the leap."

https://thedankoe.com/letters/agi-will-make-you-irrelevant-how-to-future-proof-yourself/

11. "The truth most miss: The price of a great cofounder isn’t what you give up at the start. It’s what you must give up every day — your certainties, your ego, your illusion of control. The fees are paid in questioned assumptions, abandoned convictions, and constant adaptation.

Here’s what you do tomorrow: Stop looking for the perfect cofounder. Start looking for someone worth paying the price for. Someone who makes you think better, not just work harder. Someone whose doubts you trust more than your own certainties. Someone who makes you question everything except their commitment to finding truth.

Because the highest price you’ll pay isn’t finding a great cofounder. It’s what happens when you try to build something massive without one."

https://medium.com/@mtrajan/price-of-a-great-co-founder-5fe35d62b441

12. "Whenever you see a topic becoming too polarizing in SV, it’s a good idea to take a step back and play devil’s advocate. When everyone was posting about how OSS AI models were catching up, you could still see where the talent was flowing (OpenAI, Anthropic) and make an educated bet that proprietary models would lead with new form factors.

When codegen was the focus of all of tech twitter, companies like HeyGen and ElevenLabs were being started as some of the breakout apps of the GenAI revolution."

https://shomik.substack.com/p/escape-the-silicon-valley-filter

13. "The key difference, for now, is that Moscow’s problems appear more latent than Kyiv’s. A manpower shortage on the frontline can have an immediate impact at the tactical and operational levels, especially if the adversary holds the initiative. However, at the strategic level, Russia’s outlook remains anything but optimistic; I would even argue it is exceptionally grim.

Like anyone else, I cannot pinpoint exactly when Russia’s resources will be exhausted—it could happen in 2026 or perhaps as late as 2030. But there is no question that Moscow’s capacity to wage war is finite, and Russia will eventually run out. The critical question is whether Ukraine can hold out until that point.

This is what Western decision-makers need to understand: at a strategic level, Russia is a dead man walking. 2024 has made this highly evident, most notably by Russia’s complete inability to expand itsforces to effectively respond to Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk. The West’s minimum objective for Ukraine should therefore simply be to ensure Ukraine can outlast Russia. This is entirely achievable, provided Europe and the United States maintain consistent support with equipment and Ukraine addresses its manpower challenges (a more realistic scenario if Ukraine’s partners uphold their commitments)."

https://missilematters.substack.com/p/where-the-war-stands-personal-reflections

14. "As I often emphasize, if you're looking to invest in outliers, groundbreaking technology, and the next big thing, you need to consider emerging managers. These are the true scouts—identifying diamonds in the rough, taking the boldest risks, and positioning themselves for the biggest rewards. 

When choosing a manager, ensure they offer opportunities to learn, co-invest, follow on, and actively support their portfolio companies. Keep in mind, building a successful startup takes time. Raising additional capital, scaling operations, and achieving a meaningful exit is a long-term journey. Investing in this space means committing to a partnership that spans years—patience and collaboration are key."

https://startupstechvc.beehiiv.com/p/are-mega-vc-funds-just-pe-now

15. "Due to a fluke of history, widespread prosperity existed in a few locations in the 20th century.

That fluke is in the process of correcting itself as we speak.

You can’t rely on wages earned from employment to sustain your standard of living. Building a successful business is the only way to survive.

The good thing is that this is the easiest time in history to make money.

You have to pull yourself up to the top of the pyramid instead of coasting in the middle, because the middle won’t exist for much longer.

It’s either the bottom of the pyramid or the top.

You can either be a business owner Sovereign Individual yourself or you can be one of the interchangeable laborers hoping/praying that you get a job working for one.

Which will you choose?"

https://www.tetramarketing.io/p/the-world-is-flat

16. "The mega trends in the USA are unchanged and nobody (Trump, DeSantis, Elon, Bezos, flavor of the month trending main character) will change that. 

The mega trends are as follows:

-Global competitive market

-AI and robotics removing manual labor

-Crypto to remove legacy financial systems

-Wealth inequality due to tech (Tether made $10B *profit* with 200 people or $50,000,000 per person!!!!)

-Need for UBI or UBL (wrote about here years ago)

-People spending nearly all their time online/on-chain as economic activity is largely done Digitally (Digital Immersion)

To be clear on this, all of these six things are not going to change regardless of who is in charge. This is just a cartoon account writing on the internet but that’s the view on this side of the interwebz."

Tariffs/Automation: With a quick history recap, the USA essentially shipped all its manufacturing abroad decades ago. This was in exchange for making the US dollar the default for all global trade. Effectively, weaponizing the dollar allowing the USA to freeze and sanction anyone we like (what we did to Russia). 

Slowly but surely bleeding them out.

We’ve been in a “war” for a long time. It just isn’t missiles and bombs, it’s a chokehold on Foreign countries that do anything we dislike. 

The cost of this is pretty clear, it makes manufacturing cost prohibitive in the USA due to the extreme strength of the dollar. Therefore, if the policies of Tariffs and manufacturing in the USA work it’ll be a long process and will require robots to compete with child/slave labor from China/Mexico.

The summary here (assuming he goes through with tariffs) is that short term costs increase. The end result is automation of the process onshore."

https://bowtiedbull.io/p/trump-policies-expectations-vs-reality

17. "TL;DR: Since the USA is finally waking up to weaponizing USDT and further entrenching the dollar as a global trade currency, Americans have much less to worry about. As long as you hold your coins on cold storage in a doomsday scenario of confiscation, you’ll be fine. 

The majority have already bought millions of BTC via centralized platforms. The USA no longer views it as a threat (and rightfully so). 

Summary

Nothing, NOTHING, will ever pass in the U.S. that threatens the dollar’s role as the ultimate weapon of control. The U.S. weaponized the dollar and traded its manufacturing base for global control. Crypto *was* the counter-weapon—a decentralized, censorship-resistant alternative that challenges the fiat system. However. At this point the US owns an enormous amount of crypto and the more likely scenario is that it further entrenches the dollar. 

Great news for crypto coins and America. Bad news for people abroad."

https://bowtiedbull.io/p/the-usd-inflation-and-crypto-the

18. "Expect a lot of stars and strips and tricornered hats—the Tea Party with higher production values.

The boom boom aesthetic plays with the muscular patriotism of Americana. It summons the animal spirits: performance and profit. We see this in the growth of the Gundo, the defense tech cluster in the Los Angeles County beach town, El Segundo.

And don’t expect the westernwear trend to go anywhere soon. As Paul Skallas noted, country music is the most popular genre in America. Bela Hadid moved to Dallas to date a cowboy. But this is one of many Americana looks. Westernwear joins white trash chic (Southern), neo-yuppie (Coastal), preppy revival (Northeastern), and elevated workwear (Midwestern) as one regional element among many."

https://www.8ball.report/p/2025-predictions

19. "A critical part of the CEO’s job is realizing when it’s time to sell the company.

I’m talking about the much more difficult case where the company is performing well financially, but the CEO sees storm clouds on the horizon that indicate the future will quite probably not be as rosy as the past.

The ultimate problem is that you can’t see around corners when you’re only looking at performance metrics. Even leading indicators like pipeline won’t be leading enough to show these problems. The best chance of seeing the problem in the data is if a few of your earliest, most visionary customers have moved onto the new thing. But due to switching costs, this doesn’t often happen. Other companies, who skipped your generation of technology, are more likely to be the first adopters of the new, new thing.

https://kellblog.com/2024/12/30/the-paradox-of-saying-its-time-to-sell-the-company/

20. Great list of some interesting new history and geopolitics books for 2025.

https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/12/31/2025-books-new-releases-foreign-policy-international-relations-global-affairs-history/

21. Love this series. Living like a King in Yerevan, a cool city I need to spend more time in.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NPfb9qTpzKA

22. "So what am I going to do? I’ve had a hard time writing the December letter and finishing this piece. If anything this makes me want to buy gold and start running my own bitcoin node and buy more bitcoin when the MVRV is flashing price is below realized price as a f-ck you to the Professional Managerial Class. Syria has showed me they hate my friends and I, and I hate them back.

Meanwhile buying a house has showed me while all these things are happening in the world, loans are underwritten with the assumption that counterparty and liquidity risk are not real risks in the US financial system. I think those are real risks, so I want to continue to have liquidity that is not someone else’s liability now more than ever. 

But I am trying to be less naive as I get older and fully realize that it is entirely possible the PMC goes right on ruling, being able to slowly take debt/GDP down, since most people say they want freedom but actually want safety, comfort, and a soft life. So I also fully realize that having dollar liquidity by building a bond ladder and a permanent portfolio makes sense. 

Overall the point for me after Syria is I want to be in a position where I live a great life, am prepared for either outcome, and any time I hear the PMC or their apologists tell me why I need to care or defend the RBO I can just smile and silently think, “go f-ck yourself.”

https://radigan-carter.beehiiv.com/p/syria-and-beyond

23. "And the irony in all this, is that the big winner from increased European defence spending, whatever Trump might say, is the US, as it still has the most capable military kit and military industries to supply Europe with the defensive kit it now will need in huge scale. Whatever the outcome of the war in Ukraine, US defence industries will profit immensely from the outcome. Indeed, arguably a cynic would suggest that for the US, a bad peace deal in Ukraine, leaving Europe insecure, will see the biggest demand for US military kit and for years to come.

The big conclusion still for Europe is that the best investment that it can make in its own long term defence is through short term investment in making sure Ukraine is able to defend itself and the rest of Europe. It also should have a huge self interest in making sure any peace deal agreed by Trump et al over the war in Ukraine is sustainable, meaning it leaves Ukraine secure against future attacks. 

This could be through NATO membership, security guarantees from individual Western states or assurances to Ukraine that it will be supplied with the full spectrum of Western conventional military capability to be able to defend itself as per the State of Israel guarantee."

https://timothyash.substack.com/p/ukraine-is-key-to-europes-lt-defence

24. "Japan is not threatening, not feared; but Japan is admired. It is the world’s only true post-industrial society, a frontrunner in many areas – a role model for having engineered the fastest and most successful economic development ever, for having a socio-economy resilient enough to survive the biggest deflation cycle in history without suffering social unrest and disruptive inequality; and that is now teaching the world how to age gracefully, how to maintain and create equitable prosperity by enhancing asset income rather than relying primarily on employment income.

All over the world, Japan is admired for an exemplary balance between intense economic modernization and solid perseverance of national traditions and social norms; for having not just imported western culture but perfected and improved upon it in so many areas - from architecture to fashion to food or video games, male- and female figure skating, golf or baseball. Make no mistake: viewed from a global perspective, Japan is the most highly respected nation and culture in both the East and the West, and the North and the South of this world. Japan has got what it takes to lead a global ‘Pax Nipponica’.

In 2024, Japan has a unique opportunity to re-set national ambitions and goals. It`s not about saying ‘no’ or ‘yes’ to America (or China). The world is waiting for Japan to say ‘we propose to do it this way’. Japan has got what it takes to be a global rule maker and mediator between East and West, North and South. ‘Pax Nipponica’ is an ambition the world is waiting for, and Japan’s elite should embrace. As a Japan optimist, I hope they will."

https://japanoptimist.substack.com/p/pax-nipponica

25. I always appreciate what Joules the Sartorial Shooter says. A thoughtful, smart, practical and successful business man who is a good role model for men. Just like Justin Waller.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ndHIaigykPM&t=979s

26. “The demand for manpower may see more mercenaries in frontline roles, augmenting national forces during major deployments or even forming the whole of an expeditionary corps for politically sensitive operations. Russia’s Wagner Group is something of a template for this: although more of an organ of the state than a true PMC, used to deploy Russian ex-servicemen without official involvement, it has been active throughout Africa and the Middle East.”

https://dispatch.bazaarofwar.com/p/mercenaries-and-manpower

27. "The emergence of such PMCs hinges entirely on the market for them; yet any country requiring their support will only know when it faces a very unexpected shortfall—few countries would force their combat troops to rely on an untested service. This catch-22 makes it very difficult for any contractor to build a business. Added to this is the complication that any business touching on national security prerogatives is typically carefully guarded by its home country—military assets automatically become a diplomatic asset.

Current geopolitical configurations divert acquisition efforts toward one of two large blocs: the US its allies, or the broader China-Russia bloc. Only a few countries are able to straddle the two (e.g. India), although factions are less constrained in more localized conflicts where the requirements are smaller and the stakes lower—witness Libya, where the national government received backing from Turkey and Italy, whereas France, Russia, and the UAE provided support to General Haftar."

https://dispatch.bazaarofwar.com/p/middle-tier-technology-an-invisible

28. Digging this series. Living like a King in Madrid, one of the best cities in Europe.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0Y9HskItx60

29. "What about China? On one hand, unlike Russia, it’s a productive, manufacturing-oriented state — a repressive place in many ways, but unless you’re a Uighur in Xinjiang, not exactly a nightmare. Hong Kongers have experienced a steady loss of political and cultural freedoms since the city’s peaceful resistance was crushed a few years ago, but people there are not yet being sent to the camps or slaughtered in the street.

And yet China is becoming a more repressive place over time, as its power grows. The government is building hundreds of new detention facilities all across the country for the emperor’s political opponents. The civil society that began to flourish in previous decades has been increasingly ground into nothingness. The bargain in which the state provides economic growth in exchange for rights and freedoms has broken down, and Chinese people are now asked to accept the authoritarianism without the growth. Discontent may not yet be so apparent that tourists are inundated with expressions of rage, but signs of dissatisfaction are on the rise, and those who can get money out of the country are generally doing it. 

If you bend the knee to Earth’s new empires, you are essentially making a bet that these trends will reverse themselves — that the repression is a temporary expedient, a necessary transitory phase while the empires establish order, after which things will get better for your grandchildren. There are many times and places in history when such a bet would have actually paid off. But the Ukrainians who are resisting Russian conquest have decided that given their history with previous incarnations of that empire, it’s a bad bet this time.

Whether Taiwan will resist or capitulate in the face of overwhelming force remains to be seen, but the other nations in Asia — Japan, Vietnam, Korea, etc. — have a long history of refusing to incorporate themselves into Chinese empires. 

Until now, the independence of those countries has been guaranteed by the intercession of a more distant great power — the United States. But that once-mighty nation is increasingly not in a condition to resist the Chinese empire — or even the far weaker Russian one."

https://www.noahpinion.blog/p/the-players-on-the-eve-of-destruction

30. "This is not Ukraine’s war. This is a war that is being fought on Ukrainian territory, but for the principles on which Europe rests and for its security. To ignore this conflict would be to accept a world where borders mean nothing, international law is dead, and aggressors like Russia can trample smaller states without consequence. This is a war that concerns all of us –because what happens in Ukraine tomorrow can happen anywhere in Europe.

Their fight is not an act of mercy toward the West; it is a defense of the world we all want to live in. Every European country that provides aid to Ukraine is investing in its own security and future; it is not giving anything away to Ukraine. Because if Ukraine loses, Europe as a whole loses.

The war in Ukraine is not a local conflict – it is a moment of truth for the whole world. It is a conflict between a rule-abiding civilization and an authoritarianism that defies all boundaries. Any country that hesitates to support Ukraine today is taking a huge risk with its own future."

https://www.kyivpost.com/post/44643

31. Always a fun show: The Random show that is both entertaining and educational.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BFMCySpcroI&t=3490s

32. "At the end of the 2 weeks, I left feeling deflated and foolish. I didn’t want to start a robotics company. The only thing that seemed interesting to me was humanoids. It started to dawn on me that what I actually wanted was to look like Elon, and that is incredibly cringe. It hurts to even type this out."

https://vinay.sh/i-am-rich-and-have-no-idea-what-to-do-with-my-life/

33. Interesting take on AI. Fragile ecosystem of advanced microchips will be challenged in the future.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_XXBPzeMgaM

34. "There’s currently no magic routine that will make humans live forever. But for tech millionaire Bryan Johnson, the quest to live longer lies in a routine of pills, shots, blood draws, and experimental therapy regimes he says are rewinding his biological clock. And in Netflix’s new documentary Don’t Die: The Man Who Wants To Live Forever, released Jan. 1, filmmakers bring viewers behind the scenes to discover how much work and cash trying to live forever actually takes. 

It’s a fascinating attempt to peel back the psyche of a man who is obsessed with aging, and one who ends up arguing that even with his quirks, Johnson might be building something meaningful to people. But he’s also very, very strange."

https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-news/dont-die-netflix-documentary-bryan-johnson-blueprint-1235224685/

35. A really fun and interesting episode of 2025 predictions.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HxNUAwBWX4I

36. "Entrepreneurs would do well to pay more attention to who has a ‘yes’ face, to those who more frequently volunteer to help. Then, turn that understanding into a strategy to seek out more people with a bias towards saying yes. Entrepreneurs should look for the ‘yes’ face and get help on their mission."

https://davidcummings.org/2025/01/04/entrepreneurs-should-look-for-the-yes-face/

37. "Truth is, as the axis of dictatorships continues to consolidate, both politically and militarily, the collective West — though declaring itself united— remains fractured. Democratic allies are often at cross-purposes when it comes to their economic interests, and they lack a shared threat assessment as well.

The post-Cold War decades have accustomed Western societies to life with limited risk — or preferably without risk altogether. In the minds of their citizens, globalization removed state-on-state violence from their national security equation. The “complex interdependence” fostered by the internationalization of manufacturing enmeshed state interests to such an extent, that for them, it became competition rather than war, and negotiation rather than confrontation that framed the world order.

Our naïveté and wishful thinking prevented us from realizing that when it comes to hard power, there’s only dependence — and there’s nothing complex about that, other than who depends on whom and for what."

https://www.politico.eu/article/international-relations-america-washington-politics-western-society-democracy-war/

38. Stealth wealth for the win.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eWYxAbXVK1U

39. Fun series of videos. Live Like a King in KL.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hGvgJ1FYUlY

Let the Sleeper Awake: Hybrid War is Here, Kinetic War is Coming

Dune 2 is a movie worth watching many times. It’s aesthetically beautiful. It’s a real human drama and the action sequences are great. Grand entertainment. Clear but conflicted good guys like the Atreides and Femen, and some real dastardly psychotic bad guys like the Harkonnens and Emperor. Truly evil.  

In some ways, like the real life situation we find ourselves in right now. The declining & hapless West of America, Canada, Europe, Japan, Australia/New Zealand vs the ambitions of the autocratic powers of China, Russia, Iran and North Korea. 

I would argue we are in a Cold War right now. More proof on the quiet invasion of the USA by the CCP: https://x.com/ianellisjones/status/1875008791944855821/photo/1. It’s pretty grim and damning.

The question we should be asking ourselves is the one that comes up in the movie: “No need to be a prophet to see what’s ahead. Your path leads to war. You know that. So war is coming. 

What will you do when you feel it’s breath upon your neck?”

Now I may be called a warmonger or a war profiteer. I wish for peace, I have a great life traveling around, doing the fun things I do. I’ve thrived for the most part over the last 2 decades in this globalized, overall peaceful world. Unfortunately, the world has changed dramatically in February of 2022 with the Russian invasion of Ukraine. We are not in Kansas anymore. “The world has made choices for us.”

We the West are weak, divided and our enemies are united in their alliance to topple the geopolitical top dog of America. They have explicitly stated their goals of a new world order under their aegis. A world order counter to our interests and one that contravenes every value we hold dear: freedom of speech, freedom of opportunity and freedom of law. We have to pick a side. Everyone does. 

We are no saints, I admit. While I am not a fan of our present incompetent, disconnected and corrupt political elites in the West, especially since their complete disastrous actions since the 2020 Covid pandemic, maybe even going back to the disaster of Iraq War 2. They are the lesser of evils compared to the new CRINK alliance of authoritarian countries. A combination of the mass populace, wealth and manufacturing power of China combined with the natural resources of Russia and plenty of cannon fodder from Iran and North Korea. 

This is the biggest threat to the West since World War 2. Arguably even bigger as we don’t have the industrial heft, unity and credibility we used to have. And most of the Western leadership and  populace seems asleep. Or worse in denial, blinded by wishful thinking, pining for a world that does not exist anymore. We should be preparing for hardship, “eating bitterness” as the Chinese saying goes. 

As per the original Dune story, we need to “let the sleeper awake.” “A good hunter always climbs to the highest dune before his hunt. He needs to see as far as he can see. You need to see.”

Love in Taipei: Reminiscing about The Love Boat Program 1995

The Love Boat aka Chinese Language and Study Tour in Taiwan was legendary among Asian Americans/ Canadian teens. It was a long standing program where 500-800 young 18-22 year old Asian Americans/Canadians went for the summer. For parents it was a study thing, for most of us it was just an excuse to party. I did the program in 1995 and it was literally 6 weeks of eating, drinking, very late night clubbing and partying. It was so much fun although I was a wreck by the end of the program. But I got the clubbing stuff out of my system. Met lots of cool folks from all across the US and Canada too. A good rite of passage. Plus I got to see and visit most of the major cities and tourist areas of Taiwan which was amazing. 

So I was thrilled when I saw the movie ”Love in Taipei” came out. Based on a book by Abigail Wen’s “Loveboat Taipei” which I have to read but will. The movie centers around Ever Wong, a “Sheltered young American discovers first love during a wild, fun and unforgettable summer in Taipei, Taiwan” and makes her question her pre-set future. It’s not a great movie but it was entertaining and brought back memories of fun times in Taipei, one of my favorite cities in the world. “You can’t learn culture in a classroom.”

It also covers all the travails that only an Asian-American/Canadian would understand. The high parental expectations and pressure. The crazy sacrifice by their parents and The guilt trips. There was a great comment made by Ever: “It feels selfish to want to do what you want when your family has done all the hard work for you.” Along with plenty of family obligations and family judgement, especially with all the relatives. That was never fun even though they meant well. 

There was also the constant worrying about the future and feeling deeply the culture clash. “I don’t know what I want. Right now in life, it feels like I’m torn between two of everything. Two cultures. Two languages. Two career paths.” I definitely knew that feeling back then as a 21 year old. 

But Ever’s aunt gives her great advice. “You worry so much about the life that you want, you never take the time to appreciate the life that you have.” That absolutely makes sense for all ages I think. We’re just not great at enjoying the moment, I am particularly future oriented, which is great for business but not so good for having fun (although I could argue business is fun!)

Most of us, well at least us Gen X Asian kids, were pretty uptight, used to strict rules at home. It took a while to learn to relax. It was funny when Ever’s friend tries to convince her to break curfew and go out partying. “Remember that crazy fun night when you followed the rules? No? Exactly, because no one ever remembers those nights.” A reminder that you need to chill out and cut loose every once in a while. Have some fun. 

It also brought reminders of why I hate Asian-American/Canadian culture. The credentialism, the competitive comparison and judgement: like “oh, you did not get straight As or go to Ivy League or top tier university?” I so hated this growing up in Canada and experienced this even in my first few years in the USA. But I am pleased and petty enough to say, 25 years later I won and I crushed them all in the end (except for Charles, damn you for selling your company for $300M+ usd. :)

Anyways, if you are looking for a fun and light hearted movie to watch, especially as an Asian-American, you will enjoy “Love in Taipei.” “They say the air is clearest after a rain. I started to feel that way about my life too. And the irony was the realization that not everything needed to be clear. The key was having the courage to leap into the unknown.” And as one of the main characters says: “It reminds me to follow my own path.”

Building Your Financial BarBell: Personal Finance Lessons & a Portfolio Review

I’ve long stressed health but also wealth. Money matters. Money matters because freedom is expensive. There is a term called FIRE, which stands for Financially Independent Retire Early. I prefer FIWOOT which can be attributed to Michael Karnjanaprakorn. Financial Independence but Work On Own Terms. 

Keep your job if you like it. Or quit and take a few years off. Or take a half year sabbatical. Or start your own business, which is easier than ever with all the AI tools out there. The point is to live the life you want or as the Sartorial Shooter calls it “your own custom made reality.”

Money is a valuable tool to take care of loved ones and help others. It’s a tool to support causes that matter to you. It’s not just about material things although I certainly do enjoy them. It’s also about having resources to have good and fun experiences. 

So note: this is not investing advice & please do your own due diligence but I want to share with folks what I’m doing right now. Some hard earned financial lessons. 

Reiterating some basics: 

–Spend less than you earn and really watch the hedonistic treadmill. DO NOT keep up with the Jones as they say. Manage your cost structure tightly. 

–Saving is important but put more focus on increasing your income

–Having multiple sources of income is a must

–Have at least 12 months of expenses in cash or liquid equivalents

–Optimize for getting equity in great businesses, as many as possible

So assuming you do these things it already puts you ahead of 95% of the populace. Now the fun part (at least to me). Investing and managing any money and building wealth. 

I should note before we start that my investing timeline tends to be long. Most preseed and seed stage startups take 10-15 years before any exit. Same with the Venture capital funds. And my public stocks and crypto I usually invest on a long term horizon. Ie. never less than 5 years. I’m not wired well to do stock trading. 

I’m a firm believer in the barbell. As I have written before, my biggest mistake was not understanding illiquid versus liquid assets. Up until 2020 I was overweight on Illiquid stuff: real estate & VC funds/startup equity. Now I think about the barbell of illiquid and liquid assets and how these need to be counterbalanced. It’s almost a 4 part dumbbell like a 2 X 2 grid. Liquid assets versus Illiquid assets. Risky but high potential versus less risky & safer. 

So the components. On the illiquid but less risky side: I have real estate, usually some income generating stuff. 

On the illiquid but super risky: I have LP checks in emerging vc funds, lots of equity stakes in various tech startups. Probably still VERY overweight here if I am honest. 

On the Liquid but risky: Crypto, yes ETH & BTC should be in everyone’s portfolio (will say 3-5% at least of your portfolio). I also have a bundle of tech stocks like Microstrategy which is basically a play BTC as they are so levered up in their treasury. I also own way too many public tech stocks like NVDA, TSMC, MSFT, SMH etc. 

On the liquid but less risky: I’m a fan of dividend generating stocks like PBR.A, XOM, CCJ, MOS, CF, BTU, MP, URNM as well as other commodity, natural resources and energy public companies. I also have the general Vanguard ETFs which track the stock market at large.

The whole point is to think of these in the form of a balanced portfolio. Not quite Harry Browne’s Permanent Portfolio which is a portfolio split between 25% Stocks, 25% bonds, 25% cash, 25% gold but it’s my version of it. Everyone needs to figure out their own allocation.

It’s also a reflection of the life I am enjoying. I work as much as I want and whenever I want. I get to do lots of reading and studying up on startups, sales/marketing/operating, geopolitical & technology trends. 

All of this informs my investing with the market telling me if I am right or wrong. 

I’ll do this for the rest of my life as I think it keeps your mind sharp. And it’s some of the most fun and financially rewarding things one can do. The sooner you start this process the better off you will be.

Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads January 19th, 2025

“No matter how hard the past is, you can always begin again”--Buddha

1. "At that stage of our careers and entrepreneurial journeys, maintaining a standing daily check-in proved invaluable. It allowed us to meet, share our experiences, and grow together as a group. Entrepreneurs should find a peer group and look for ways to grow faster with activities like a daily check-in."

https://davidcummings.org/2024/12/14/daily-check-in-amongst-entrepreneurs/

2. Creator economy is back. It's evolving fast too.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F54fcJFz_7M&t=163s

3. Describing the vibe shift in Silicon Valley and the USA at large. An Insight dense conversation.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gn9YZP_Zm50&t=251s

4. "Yes, everything is aligning. You may call it industrial policy, friendshoring, or de-risking. It adds up to the same thing: state-directed investment. Again, read the Macron speech. He says if we don’t learn to build stuff again, Europe can die. Of course, he’s prone to overdramatic statements, but he didn’t say Europe is a bit ill. He said Europe can die.

This is a question of life and death. Building military equipment is life and death stuff. It has become an issue of national survival to invest. Governments all over the world find the need to direct investments to purposes they want to achieve."

https://themarket.ch/interview/russell-napier-we-are-headed-towards-a-system-of-national-capitalism-ld.12718

5. "How truly democratic today’s democracies are has become an open question. Negative answers trouble the political life of many nations. Everywhere the traditional parties, creatures of a decaying consensus, are in the grip of disintegration. They are being replaced by sectarian war bands that challenge the very legitimacy of the system. The public has a vague notion of what it is for but knows with terrible clarity what it stands against. A spirit of negation has inspired massive street uprisings in the style of France’s Yellow Vests and Black Lives Matter here at home, as well as the election of unorthodox populists like Donald Trump.

I analyzed the causes of this upheaval in my 2014 book, “The Revolt of the Public.” In brief, I argued that institutional elites have failed to adapt to the vast flows of information of the digital age. They reside at the top of great hierarchies that tower uneasily over a flattened socioeconomic landscape—and they want nothing to change. They crave the eternal preservation of the 20th-century regime, in which they wielded unquestioned authority and had the power to conceal their dirty secrets. In pursuit of this ideal—fondly labeled “our democracy”—they have grown ever more reactionary and antidemocratic over the decades.

In Britain and Brazil today, you can land in jail for voicing antiestablishment opinions on social media. Here in the U.S., the Biden administration erected a censorship apparatus to mute online dissidence—and, we recently learned, “debanked,” or cast out of the financial system without right of appeal, those engaged in disfavored operations such as cryptocurrency.

The Revolt Gains Legitimacy

With the triumphant second coming of Trump, the revolt of the public has entered a new phase. The cordon sanitaire that isolated the president-elect from all respectable political and cultural gatekeepers has tumbled like the walls of Jericho. Yesterday, he was Hitler—opposing him was a moral imperative. Today, having risen out of the depths of disgrace, he heads a movement that contains much of the energy and excitement to be found in this country."

https://www.discoursemagazine.com/p/revolt-of-the-public-10-years-on

6. "The only way the US can regain some defense industrial base competitive advantage is to partner with free world countries that have the manufacturing expertise and cost structure to compete with China. That is a very short list: Ukraine and Mexico. And Mexico doesn’t have much of a defense industry.

In the free world, Ukraine is the low cost producer of defense tech and defense production. It was the defense industrial base of the USSR. Handing this over to Putin would be a strategic mistake of epic proportions.

Not to mention the free world’s largest and only battle proven military. Losing that to Russia seems…unwise. 

And then there are the minerals. According to a Washington Post article yesterday, Ukraine sits on $25 tr of critical minerals. 27 of them. 22 of them which the US sources from Russia and China. For example, Ukraine has the world’s largest uranium deposits. Right now, the biggest source of uranium for the US power industry is Kazakhstan—mines owned by China and Russia.

Ukraine is rich in neodymium, which is used for most magnets. Including the magnets in almost every small drone motor used by the US military. Currently, China is the source of 90% of the world’s neodymium. Indeed, 40% of US weapons systems are dependent on Chinese components.

As China increasingly disengages with the West as it shifts from export-led growth to domestic demand-driven growth, its relative power grows while that of the US wanes.

Saving Ukraine is not only good for the Ukrainians; it is an investment in the strategic security of the US-led liberal world order."

https://theketchumsun.substack.com/p/issue-55-letter-from-kyiv

7. Good overview of Silicon Valley in 2024 and some good projections for 2025.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zBlk3MdQPM4

8. "Memo to CEOs: This is the way to do it. Brands and logos and press releases do not resonate with us anymore. We are interested in your people — who they are, what they care about, and what they have to say — not your brand. The most overvalued firm in tech, Palantir, isn’t a tech company, but a CEO (Alex Karp) masking as a public company."

https://www.profgalloway.com/people-are-the-new-brands/

9. "Today, his default pace is 100 miles per hour. To take this random Thursday in August: A couple weeks ago, Johnson was in Japan, finishing shooting a drama called The Smashing Machine. Shortly after that, Johnson appeared at a Disney event to announce that he will soon star in a new film, called Monster Jam. This fall, two movies Johnson has already completed, Red One and Moana 2, will be released. And on Monday, he’ll go back to work, filming a new live-action version of Moana. 

Johnson’s work in Hollywood and, lately, in business (tequila, skin care) have made him something not too far from a billionaire; he could retire tomorrow, or even today. But this level of activity is typical and has made Johnson unbelievably successful: Every morning he wakes up, busily performs the character of Dwayne Johnson, and the empire grows."

https://www.gq.com/story/dwayne-johnson-men-of-the-year-cover-2024

10. A great episode this week if you wanna know what's up with businesses at the edge of the internet. Crypto, AI, art and tech.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ICn78rmjMno

11. A grand bit of tinfoil hat theories of global macro and geopolitical strategy. Sounds crazy but entertaining.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WvP9rAowyrA

12. Important discussion on geopolitical implications of Syrian turmoil. But this extends to the Russian invasion of Ukraine too, Turkey's new Ottoman Empire.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wixRrGeH3HY&t=30s

13. This was a worthwhile conversation with Jared Kushner. I learned so much on how to do negotiations well.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EagrRPukYdc

14. "Looking ahead, Raj highlighted emerging trends that could redefine defence innovation. Synthetic biology, for instance, offers transformative potential in healthcare and national security. Meanwhile, advancements in energy, such as small nuclear reactors, could underpin future technological breakthroughs.

But the biggest challenge, Raj believes, is not innovation itself, but its adoption. “The Department of Defense doesn’t have an innovation problem; it has an innovation adoption problem,” he said, quoting former Deputy Secretary of Defense Bob Work. Bureaucratic inertia remains a barrier, but Raj remains optimistic, especially as Europe ramps up its efforts in defence and Ukraine becomes a proving ground for new technologies."

https://www.resiliencemedia.co/p/from-f-16s-to-venture-capital-raj

15. An insightful conversation on the future of war.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Fg_zdFF4Y4A

16. "Now, New Founding has launched a venture capital fund to invest in what it calls “aligned companies,” startups that oppose progressive ideologies and are intent on both “cultural and economic disruption.” It’s one of a small but growing number of VCs vocally rejecting ‘wokeism’ and building their investment thesis on core conservative values.

New Founding’s investments are one tentpole of a broader goal: to remake society with a largely MAGA, tech-driven, Christian worldview. It decries leftists as “anti-human,” celebrates technology as a singular force that will define a new era of prosperity, loves crypto and sees the internet (“deeply American in ethos and design”) as a means to its ends. “Our project offers a powerful avenue,” a manifesto on its website published in July reads, “both to develop the class of people who can ultimately challenge the incumbent regime and to acquire the resources, territory, and institutions that will enable this effort.

New Founding CEO Nate Fischer told Forbes these investments are the beginnings of a “parallel economy” offering conservative versions of mainstream services it views as too liberal, like Google’s ad-tech products. “There's a large share of people who feel that their views are almost entirely absent from the institutions that are shaping the future,” Fischer explained. “And there's a real acute need and hunger for alternatives.”

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidjeans/2024/12/23/anti-woke-venture-capital-new-founding/

17. "Greenland is incredibly resource-rich, with rare earth mineral deposits valued in the hundreds of billions of dollars, and its geopolitical position is incredibly significant to American interests vis-a-vis our Great Power rivals. Should Greenland fall under the Chinese umbrella, it will have devastating national security implications for the United States.

President-elect Trump’s prioritization of Greenland for negotiation and future annexation is both righteous and strategically prudent. As the first major U.S. acquisition in well over a century, Greenland can serve to shape the president’s legacy in a manner akin to his favorite president: Andrew Jackson."

https://www.dossier.today/p/yes-america-should-absolutely-annex

18. "Now, new export controls on Chinese drone components announced by Beijing and coming into effect next year mean Taiwan is doubling down on its bet that drones become a central feature of modern warfare — and the island becomes a global hub to produce them.

Taiwan is already a critical technology hub, producing 95 percent of the world’s most advanced microchips. Its local drone industry is working to match Chinese manufacturing to help the United States and other Western allies reduce their reliance on China."

https://www.politico.eu/article/taiwan-eyes-war-drones-to-counter-china/

19. "Trump is no kumbaya peace-loving hippie; he fully believes in the military supremacy and exceptionalism of America and delights in slaughtering humans using said military might. Remember that in his first term, he assassinated Iranian General Qasem Soleimani on Iraqi soil to the delight of a large swath of America. Trump gave no fucks about violating Iraqi airspace and unilaterally deciding to murder a general of another country against whom America was not officially at war. As such, he wants to properly re-arm the empire so that its capabilities match the hype.

Trump advocates the re-industrialization of America to help those who want good manufacturing jobs and those who wish to possess a strong military. To do so requires reversing the imbalances built under the Petroyuan system. This will be accomplished by weakening the dollar, providing tax grants and subsidies to produce things domestically, and deregulation. All these things combined will make it economically prudent for companies to move production onshore because China is currently the best place to produce things due to the combination of three decades in the making of pro-growth policies.

To summarize, quickly and dramatically weakening the dollar is the first step towards Trump and Bessent achieving their economic goals. It is also something they can accomplish overnight without consulting domestic legislators or foreign finance ministry heads. Given that Trump has one year to show progress on some of his goals to help Republicans maintain their hold on the House and Senate, my base case is a $/gold devaluation in the first half of 2025."

https://cryptohayes.substack.com/p/trump-truth

20. Maniac on a mission. Such a great conversation on what makes entrepreneurial success. Must watch.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p_8KKY8fQdA

21. A true Renaissance man: hedge funder, professional musician, pilot, theologian. Fascinating life.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SSwszq1xFK0

22. Hard men here. French Foreign Legionnaires in the jungles of French Guiana.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LfEGm1iNMcg

23. Situation in Syria: net net, it's gonna be a fragmented mess unless Turkey really asserts itself there.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tV6Om9aIz2A

24. A masterclass on AI semiconductor chips. Really great conversation if you want to understand what’s happening with AI right now and implications for big tech (and small).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QVcSBHhcFbg&t=2042s

25. "Ukrainian companies can produce nearly three times more weapons than the current Ukrainian budget can procure. The capacity of FPV drone producers already exceeds 4 million per year, while the state budget provides money to contract only slightly more than 1 million.

When the full-scale war began, Ukraine banned weapons exports to ensure all production went to its Armed Forces (AFU). As manufacturing capacity grew beyond military budget needs, a debate emerged about lifting the ban. Instead of resuming exports, Ukraine launched the Zbroyari project – a program where European countries could finance Ukrainian weapons production for the AFU. The message was clear: countries lacking manufacturing capacity could fund procurement from Ukrainian producers."

https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/11/29/can-europe-fill-in-the-gap-if-trump-abandons-ukraine/

26. Our enemies should not be underestimated, especially with Russian military. They are learning and adapting & we should be too.

"Russian forces are attempting to breach Ukrainian defenses along the Donbas front, where the situation has become critical in some places. Their tactics have changed significantly from what was seen during the battles for Bakhmut and Avdiivka. Instead of launching large-scale attacks that turned into “meat grinders” with dozens of soldiers charging across open fields, they now send in smaller groups using motorcycles, civilian vehicles, and even electric scooters.

In his analysis, BBC Ukraine war reporter Abdujalil Abdurasulov notes that these small groups attack from multiple directions in succession. While many are eliminated, the sheer number of attempts means some groups eventually break through to reach Ukrainian positions. Despite heavy Russian losses, this approach lets them capture about one village per day.

This change in tactics was largely driven by the widespread use of drones on the battlefield. Modern surveillance and attack drones make it nearly impossible for large groups of soldiers to move without being detected and targeted, forcing Russians to adapt with smaller, more mobile units."

https://euromaidanpress.com/2024/12/07/russian-generals-abandoned-meat-grinder-assaults-in-ukraine-and-their-new-tactics-work/

27. I always like listening to Justin Waller. One of the few super positive & credible examples for young men.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jqAQsAC4GA8&t=925s

28. "My gift to you: How to make more money in 2025.

I’ve compiled a free list of ways to potentially make more money and get rich(er) in 2025."

https://shindy.substack.com/p/make-money

29. "But, there have also been moments where the crowd failed me. And every time this happened, the reason was the same—the crowd did not have sufficient expertise. They simply didn’t know enough about the topic at hand."

https://ofdollarsanddata.com/the-ignorance-of-the-crowd/

30. "The only way to fight back is to get average-IQ people to reject our all-too-human craving for certainty.

Internalize the notion that ANYONE strutting around telling you they’ve got a lock on The Truth is an emissary (probably an unwitting one) of an arch-criminal who has a vested interest in getting you (and millions like you with your biases and predilections) to behave in a particular way to the benefit of specific powerful forces."

https://kaichang.substack.com/p/zealots-of-certainty

31. "The Good News? On a final positive note, 2024 is still the greatest time to be alive. Crypto currency is solving a large chunk of these issues in real time. Intermediaries simply sit in the “flow of money” and that rent extraction is moving to digital currencies. Therefore, we don’t even care about the prior three steps! They were just there to tell you the real issue (wealth disparity *not* income disparity).

Instead of fighting all of these loopholes, remember that no one is coming to save you. Not your boss, your family or your country. Save yourself by playing the game correctly (“Don’t hate the player, hate the game")

The game is won by creating digital income (online income) and investing into high quality technology firms and crypto currencies in our opinion. This way your income can be moved to a more tax friendly state/country. This is what the wealthy are doing so you should do it too."

https://bowtiedbull.io/p/reminder-wealth-inequality-is-not

32. You can never get enough Justin Waller. Always a good, educational time.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WNeIk9RVUso&t=7s

33. Good global economic takes here on Xmas.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iqXDfTyLGu8

34. "Tesla is creating factories that are the product—designing, testing, and perfecting every element just as they do with their cars. 

This focus on manufacturing efficiency, Lutz believes, will lead to a dramatic reduction in production costs, potentially bringing them closer to zero. And this shift in how products are built—rather than merely assembled—could set a new standard for the entire manufacturing world."

https://www.zerohedge.com/technology/musk-led-manufacturing-revolution-nobody-talking-about

35. Worthwhile conversation on technology, defense-tech, geopolitics and growing influence of Silicon Valley across the world.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TIKevZh97Tw

36. You can never get enough Justin Waller. He is the mentor I wish I had when I was younger.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s4kPtEEsE6A

37. "This reveals something broader about how ecosystems like Silicon Valley work: They’re not just markets — they’re belief systems. Success comes not from playing by the rules, but from understanding why the rules exist and when to break them.

The tragedy isn’t that most founders struggle in Silicon Valley. It’s that they struggle believing they did everything right by the wrong playbook.

Because in Silicon Valley, you’re not just building a business.

You’re auditioning for a role in someone else’s vision of the future. Make sure it is yours."

https://medium.com/@mtrajan/roots-reputation-momentum-what-silicon-valley-actually-values-7cb2f1975549

38. "Certainly as geopolitical tensions continue to rise and the US gets closer to a potential conflict with a technologically sophisticated near-peer adversary, the DoD must continue to find ways to adopt innovative technologies that help warfighters. There is no doubt that in the coming years many startups will break through and land large DoD contracts to deliver essential technology. As such, I predict that there will be at least three new NatSec “unicorns” minted in 2025 – that is, at least three national security focused startups will raise fundraising rounds valuing them at $1B or more.

Although there’s much to be optimistic about for startups selling to national security in 2025, they will still face significant headwinds when entering the defense market. I predict that several NatSec startups will struggle to grow into their inflated valuations, finding it difficult to grow DoD revenue fast enough to secure another round of funding. As a result, I predict that in 2025 at least one high-profile NatSec startup will be forced to raise a “down round,” or accept a discounted acquisition, in order to stay afloat."

https://maggiegray.substack.com/p/2025-predictions-for-natsec-tech

39. "The Russians have no desire to go to war with NATO too, right now, but if they were looking at a low risk, high reward activities on the edge of war that is at least something, then this fits the bill. They will continue to do this until the risk/reward ratio goes negative. They have yet to meet resistance. 

It’s amazing that the Russians took this long. These actions may not for now significantly impact the economies of those sending weapons to kill Russians, but they do humiliate the West by conducting sabotage without consequence…just impotent, sternly worded letters and toothless inspections.

My bet is that this will increase until it meets resistance and cost."

https://cdrsalamander.substack.com/p/cables-pipelines-and-consequences

The Path to Sovereignty is the Path to Freedom: Learning from Resavager

I care alot about freedom and personal sovereignty. I write a lot about independence and the importance of being financially independent so you can do whatever you want (without hurting others) and having resources to help your friends, family and greater community. To be able to put your weight against a cause or mission that is really important to you, and make a significant impact. Hopefully positive. Basically to be a person of consequence. 

I love reading Resavager, despite the somewhat racist & white supremacist tone, he writes beautifully and this next passage on sovereignty is no different. 

“There are many paths to sovereignty today. War, which is the purpose of the state, continues to grow more complex. The first suggestion is to seek power and skills through military service. There are many perks that will get you ahead of the mass in taking this route. Ignore the hysteria about joining the military if you want to make something of your life is my suggestion. The military opens doors that otherwise would be closed to you.

For others, maybe it’s not possible or feasible. There are still ways. As you can see, our military is controlled by politicians, not warriors. Seek out power and influence in government. Acquire skills necessary for modern militaries today like logistics or arms manufacturing. Invest in those type of companies. Create powerful companies. Acquire wealth to fund your own projects. I can go on, but you can let your mind wander. Set your sights onwards and upwards. This is the way of sovereign men.

What does it mean to be sovereign? It means you see yourself as a player in the great game. You stopped being an NPC. Your decisions will affect the balance of power in the world. If you truly care about this idea of freedom, you make yourself sovereign. Anything less is still slavery. What can you do to make yourself a player? If not a player, at least closer to one? What can you do set up your family and sons for such work? Our life upon this earth IS warfare. That will end as soon as mankind does.”

(Source: https://resavager.com/p/your-heritage-is-rebellion)

Food for thought. If you aren’t working toward personal sovereignty, what are you really doing?

Get healthy, get smart, get strong (via training and martial arts) and get rich. Have kids. Have a mission. Help others. There is nothing else that matters in life.

Lioness: The Thin Line Between Chaos & Order

Taylor Sheridan is the hardest working man in television. A man responsible for showing all of us how the world truly works through his shows: Yellowstone, 1923, 1883, Mayor of Kingstown, Tulsa King, and Landman. I especially enjoy Special Ops: Lioness, a show about a secret group of CIA agents, quietly and not so quietly, protecting us from the bad guys out there. 

In season 2, there was an incredible comment that one of the veteran agents said to a newbie. 

“You see some of the things I’ve seen, do some of the things I’ve done, in order to learn that the world is this close (showing a half inch with her fingers) to chaos at all times. 5% of people are saints, 5% are evil, in their soul, stone evil. The other 90, they’re just sheep. They will follow whoever has the upper hand. 

That is what we fight for. There is no winning, there is just the upper hand.”

Damn. This was the world we have always been in. But especially in this new emerging multipolar world, this is becoming more obvious and clear. We are up against near peer challengers. It’s a literal arms race, where there is no moat, and your edge does not last for long. It’s going to be an endless competition. 

This is going to be life at the individual level, company/organizational level, country level and even between economic/military blocs. Buckle up everyone, it’s going to be a wild ride for the rest of the roaring 2020s. 

Josh Clemens writes in his excellent article: “Rise of the Dutch Republics”:

“When hegemony is broken, conflict returns. At worst, the strong take what they can and the weak suffer what they must. At best, innovation returns. When there is no dominant power to ensure peace, there is also no bureaucracy to ensure stagnation. No global hall monitor. The same environment that produced Sparta and Athens––one of iteration and competition––is allowed to flourish.

Hegemony brings peace, competition brings innovation. 

If America slips from total hegemon to standard first power, we’ll see a much more dynamic global environment. Ideally, the US will rise to the challenge and become more competitive as well. Decentralized currency means small network states can operate with a globally valid currency––no confederate dollars. Startup founders are now using LLMs to run companies with 2 people instead of 20. The same may be true of countries.

Athens held total hegemony for 67 years. The United States has enjoyed the same for 79 years. Now a challenge to American hegemony paired with advances in tech set the stage for the rise of smaller, agile nation states and organizations to compete.” (Source: https://americanreformer.org/2024/06/rise-of-the-dutch-republics/)

I expect there will be more change on the economic, military, technological and geopolitical aspects of the world. That means for anyone looking for stability, you are probably going to be VERY disappointed. For a Taurus and fixed sign individual, I am a planner and hate change and unpredictability. 

So to properly manage myself, I have to over-prepare to deal with the volatility. I try to manage my cost structure carefully and keep as much cash & liquidity as reasonable. This allows me to breathe and think clearly. 

I also aim to keep my calendar as light as possible, so I have time to think and can adjust schedules for the inevitable emergencies in life. An overbooked schedule leads to undue stress. Remember real work does not always look like work. The best ideas and insights come at the most unexpected times, free time. 

Struggle and stress build men as I’ve learned from all the greats. That is also why my focus on mental resilience and physical fitness (personal trainer and fight training) will reap major rewards. This is the only way to stay in the game to take on all the inevitable opportunities that will appear in all this change. “Chaos is a ladder” as was famously said in Game of Thrones. 

Be Like Bamboo: Making Your Moves in Shadows and Silence

I learned that Bamboo, the famous and incredibly strong Asian plant, actually grows for as much as 5 years underground, requiring continually daily fertilizer and water everyday. But once it breaks ground it actually grows 90 feet tall in 5 weeks.

It made me think about our own personal growth.  You hear a lot about building in public or letting everyone around you know about your goals. But in reality when you are first starting off and you have no idea what you are doing, it’s better to be just like bamboo. 

Make your moves underground, quietly as you explore and experiment. You have no idea what will work for you so it’s good to play around, trying new things, pushing and investing in yourself and not get locked into anything. It’s why so many startups work in stealth mode. 

However, once you do have some clear direction and start getting some traction, being open and public with your goals do help. I recommend for personal growth sharing your specific goals with a close friend and providing them some cash or check to send to an organization you hate if you don’t hit them by a certain time and date. A good tip I learned via Tim Ferriss.

For startup founders, this is also why I recommend sharing with their investors their key milestones and doing at minimum monthly updates. 

In both cases, that visibility and accountability forces you to execute. And helps keep you out of eventually lethargy that seems to engulf you at times. It's a key part of keeping that forward momentum. 

But before that all happens, it’s usually better to work quietly and quickly. Get some learnings, build yourself up and get some strength before you move the spotlight on yourself. Be like bamboo. Do the hard work, build your foundation and prepare yourself for the crazy growth that will come.

Marvin’s Best Weekly Reads January 12th, 2025

"Friendship is the only cement that will ever hold the world together"-Woodrow Wilson

1. I've enjoyed Mick Ryan's books, masterclass on military thinking and what wars will look like in the future.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BYAE2jmD-bE

2. The new world of espionage in this new more chaotic world.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tn6a4_OjhUM

3. Important discussion on the scary & possible scenario of Russia invading the Baltics in the future. More than possible.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eZWMkRWx53c

4. For anyone who is interested in buying a business (SMB or online) and building wealth. Codie Sanchez is the real deal.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZraBHTmZK98&t=862s

5. "So, you are witnessing a dramatic unfolding of history much like the collapse of the Soviet controlled Eastern Europe in the 1989-90 years. Assad’s flight is reminiscent of that of Nicolae Ceaușescu, once perceived to be invincible leaders, backed up by powerful regional players, too hard for the West to topple.

The Hamas attack on Israel however initiated an unexpected chain of events that revealed an all too familiar historical pattern: tyrants eventually fall and when they fall they fall hard. For now, for this brief moment, let’s celebrate the exit of the butcher of Damascus and hope there is a better future for Syria, its people and the entire region."

https://pieterdorsman.substack.com/p/assads-end

6. "For Türkiye the success of the HTS operation brings numerous benefits aside from offering the prospect of refugee returns and boxing in the YPG. On the diplomatic front, the succesful push by the HTS, and recognition that Türkiye has leverage over HTS, has made Türkiye perhaps the dominant external power in Syria - it could be argued therein with Israel (Israel might control the skies, but Türkiye seems to have more influence at this stage on the ground)."

https://timothyash.substack.com/p/turkiye-syria-and-macro

7. "Here is how FAEM works. First let’s talk about the power of human-in-the-loop. We loved the HITL business model in previous years because it gives humans some final oversight of AI outputs, and helps collect more proprietary data for model training from the human input. The problem with it though, is it limits scalability and can sometimes lose much of the benefit of automation.

FAEM is a business model that takes less and less human-in-the-loop over time. It starts with an AI tool that needs some customized inputs. Let’s say it's an image generation tool that needs a text prompt. It turns out some people are better at prompts than others, so a little over a year ago we started seeing things like prompt marketplaces. Instead of writing your own prompt, you could find prompts other people had written and put those into the tool as-is, or with your own tweaks."

https://investinginai.substack.com/p/faem-my-favorite-ai-business-model

8. "I think Sheridan’s story is an extreme example of Parkinson’s Law, the famous adage that work will expand to fill whatever time is allocated to the task no matter the complexity or scope (the canonical example is handing in a college term paper: no matter what day a paper is assigned, you will magically do 95% of the work the evening before it is due).

In 2010, Sheridan left Sons of Anarchy over a contract dispute and decided that acting wasn’t his calling. But his wife was pregnant and he desperately needed work to support a new family. One of the most pressing deadlines you can have is “make money for my future child”. Sheridan credits this obligation with motivating his career change and getting those first few film scripts out the door. 

Following his film work, Sheridan developed the hit TV show Yellowstone and set himself up to cruise into semi-retirement. But he’s since made six other shows and a major reason is that he created new pressures and deadlines for himself. How? By buying the $350m Four Sixes (6666) ranch in Texas. To finance the purchase, he struck a $200 million multi-show deal with Paramount. That’s a lot more deadlines (and content for our eyeballs)."

https://www.readtrung.com/p/taylor-sheridans-extreme-productivity

9. 5 months old but this is a sobering discussion on the Russian invasion of Ukraine. War of attrition and unfortunately Russia has the edge here. But UAF holding on, god bless them.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=t8wB_5LR6d4

10. This is a fascinating conversation with a VC investor at the top of their game.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3auPzwkZlak

11. Some background, If you want to understand what is going on Syria.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fFu2kk8Kd0E&t=11s

12. "Turkey is now the dominant external force in Syria, perhaps with Israel acting without, and this gives Turkey leverage with other global powers, in particular with Russia, the U.S., and Iran."

https://timothyash.substack.com/p/syria-winners-and-losers

13. Unbelievably educational and enlightening conversation on American politics and how government works (or does not).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9xz8i90Hp2A

14. Building Holding Cos are the thing these days. Good to hear from someone who has done this well.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KJcrYRGRMmc

15. Understanding the situation in Georgia. Wish Russia would leave them alone. Possible EU & Turkey intervention? Geopolitics is getting complicated.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qz6_TAh4ZJs

16. Good tips for most foreign startup founders who are visiting San Francisco.

https://chrisneumann.com/archives/10-tips-for-canadian-founders-going-to-san-francisco

17. Helpful to understand the geopolitical situation in Syria. Turkey & Israel are the winners here.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=llCrHnW9P4o

18. "We live in an era when public confidence in political leaders and in the government structures that support them has dropped to floor level, and is still going down. There are a number of different ways of dating public recognition of the utter uselessness of the western political class in different countries. The non-reaction to the financial crisis of 2008 is one. In Britain, the tragicomic self-harming episode of the Brexit negotiations was a key moment perhaps, in France the non-Presidency of François Hollande (2012-17) following the cheaply sordid reign of Sarkozy (2007-12).

But in any event, no western political system was left standing after the catastrophic mishandling of the Covid crisis, and of the crisis in Ukraine that followed. So it seems evident that we are governed by imbeciles, doesn’t it, and that those imbeciles have hollowed out and destroyed the capacity of the states that support them in office?

A properly functioning system requires a careful balance between restraining the desires of the political class to do things that are illegal or impossible on the one hand, and preventing elected governments from carrying out their mandates on the other. Recently, the balance has shifted in the direction of the politicians, essentially through the politicisation of higher level government jobs, and the increasing influence in all countries of "advisers", whose political future depends on that of their boss.

However, especially in the more sensitive areas of government—defence, foreign policy, intelligence, law and order—this runs into a powerful sense of inertia, and often a belief that long-term professionals know what they are doing, and would like to be left alone to do it. This is inevitable: if you have been reading diplomatic telegrams and intelligence reports about a crisis for months or even years about a crisis in a country where you were once stationed, you are bound to consider yourself an expert, not least because you have access to sources that others don't.

It's a small step, though, from that certainty to a kind of arrogance where you resist attempts to reach other conclusions or do things differently. This is the essence of the problem which people who talk about "Deep Sates" are trying to describe, and it's pretty much endemic in the government of a complex society."

https://aurelien2022.substack.com/p/in-the-shallows-of-the-deep-state

19. Scary new world of war. Listening to this makes me concerned on whether Europe has fully woken up. But Helsing is leading the charge.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XxtvQyy7gtE&t=1s

20. A valuable conversation on why Europe is lagging behind by missing waves of technology advancement. Less regulation and more confidence.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eevnPUDzNQ8

21. So many great business teardowns on this week’s NIA episode.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aOkXPSJ0qyg

22. This is a brave man, going to the frontlines of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ox9_V-APOGg

23. End of an era: author of the "Revolt of the Public". Describes well the social media and Information Age messiness we live in right now.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4wH-MsQpxo8

24. One of the most underrated Big tech CEOs around. An educational conversation on where AI is going in enterprise.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9NtsnzRFJ_o&t=1s

25. "The Juvenal Principle: “Give them bread and circuses and they will never revolt.” Roman poet Juvenal believed a “long peace” was as evil as a war. The modern world needs to heed Juvenal's warning against luxury. To let “bread and circuses” sedate us into inaction is to betray our very soul..."

https://oldbooksguy.substack.com/p/10-concepts-from-ancient-rome-that

26. "China both produces a majority of the world’s rare earth minerals and reigns as the undisputed leader in processing them, thanks to its deals with mining operations in resource-rich countries like the Democratic Republic of the Congo.

Last week, Beijing countered Biden’s latest round of export controls — which the White House had touted as the strongest yet on China’s access to advanced microchips — by outright banning the export of germanium, gallium and antimony to the U.S.

Those three critical minerals are used in military equipment like night-vision goggles and by American chipmakers. Some analysts pointed out that China specifically chose them as a warning because industry would feel the impact without being crippled.

William Reinsch, who oversaw export policies in the Clinton administration, described the minerals embargo as “shots across the bow,” more aimed at the incoming president than the current one.

China is showing it can “make our lives very inconvenient,” said Reinsch, now a trade expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies think tank."

https://www.politico.com/newsletters/digital-future-daily/2024/12/12/chinas-obscure-very-important-shot-at-trump-00194072

27. So much to learn from the great men of history with one of the best historians around: Andrew Roberts. Be proud of your past. 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=h0aGN_rdnMQ&t=292s

28. Good assessment on the Syria situation by Erik Prince.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PHFdBdj5luA

29. This was a great episode of All in Podcast this week. Good fun and educational. The gents at their best.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9p-vCUB5AA8&t=4280s

30. Important to understand what’s happening in Syria and what a potential future will be for them (and which neighboring powers will be dominant).

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XBXUxCpGbCA&t=4s

31. On the ground view of what's happening in China.

Faith in the political leadership is dropping. It seems like a race to the bottom of competence of the elites both in the West and China.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ImWLXaQxN5o

32. "So, as a voracious reader, I’d like to do my part and recommend a selection of books I have found without par in understanding why the 20th Century was such a disaster. Particularly, it must be understood why the West went from being a self-confident, prosperous land of relative liberty to a region divided between outright communists and the worst sort of egalitarian socialists.

That is a big question, but it mainly comes down to the abominable mindsets of our awful rulers. Because it is they and what they thought that is generally to blame, understanding what they did and why is critical. Further, learning about the sort of societies that were functional and successful but-for their civilization-destroying interventions provides clues on how we can escape the grey, decaying world of the present and return to the timeline where the spirit of the Belle Epoque takes us ever higher up the ladder of civilizational excellence."

https://www.theamericantribune.news/p/5-books-to-understand-the-disaster-ca3

33. "The internet has diminished the power of even strong brands, and it’s penetrated the shield of good branding from mediocre products (e.g., Nike, Intel, Target, etc.). A product or service that cannot fulfill its promise to make you smarter or sexier can’t reverse its fortunes by listening to Don Draper. And inventing and refining a great product, fixing its supply chain, and improving your customer service is a lot more work than turning to Midjourney and asking for a new logo. 

In my view, Jaguar should not have spent a dollar on marketing before it had an inspiring, ready-to-ship product to show the public. 

The companies that have added the most value in the past 10 years barely advertise at all. Netflix now has a market cap of about $400b; in 2014 it was about $21b. Alphabet’s market cap 10 years ago was roughly $390b; today it is $2.5t. 

Those companies and others took dollars out of advertising and put them into making better products and getting them to customers faster and cheaper than their competitors."

https://www.profgalloway.com/killing-the-cat

34. "The globalization of VC isn’t slowing down. While 65% of all unicorns minted with a Kauffman Fellow in the cap table are from the US, nearly two-thirds of our report's top ten venture capitalists invest outside the US, consistent with the trend on the Forbes Midas List. The globalization of venture capital will continue on this path.

Further, alternative venture capital models that innovate in their approach to sourcing, investing in, and exiting startups will continue to sprout. Regions outside the US will continue to see the launch of traditional VC firms leading with high conviction and alternative models investing with a different portfolio construction approach. We will also see the nascent growth of secondary vehicles to provide early liquidity to the market. This evolving landscape is great news for entrepreneurs and investors everywhere."

https://99tech.alexlazarow.com/p/a-new-way-to-measure-vc-success